Ophelia regenerates; Typhoon Nesat heads towards China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011

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Ophelia is back as a tropical depression, thanks to a reduction in wind shear that allowed the storm to re-organize yesterday afternoon just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, with good spiral banding and rotation. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia's heavy thunderstorms are not increasing, and are limited in areal extent. The low-level center is partially exposed to view, thanks to strong wind shear. No hurricane hunter flights are scheduled for today.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, and will continue to do so through Thursday. By Friday, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia intensifying into a hurricane by Saturday. With the models all agreeing on at track for Ophelia just east of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Warnings will probably be required for the island this weekend. Bermuda will be on the left (weak) side of Ophelia, so will miss the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rains. Ophelia may be a threat to Southeast Newfoundland early next week.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm may dissipate by 4 - 5 days from now.

Typhoon Nesat headed towards China
Typhoon Nesat is headed west towards a landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday, and in northern Vietnam just south of Hanoi on Friday. Nesat is a large but disorganized Category 1 storm, and will not have time to strengthen significantly before landfall. However, Nesat is a very wet storm, capable of dropping over a foot of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 20 people dead and severe flooding problems.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 06 UTC on Thursday September 29 show the Nesat is expected to dump over a foot of rain (red colors) along where its southern eyewall tracks. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast. Moisture from Hilary will not reach the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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272. WeatherfanPR
10:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just keep pressing the delete button



I just deleted the messages. thanks
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
271. aprinz1979
10:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just keep pressing the delete button


Same thing happened to me. Delete and then press refresh
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
269. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I opened the magoubly messages and I saw a crazy monkey. now I can't delete the magoubly messages !!!

Just keep pressing the delete button
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
268. WeatherfanPR
10:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
I opened the magoubly messages and I saw a crazy monkey. now I can't delete the magoubly messages !!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
267. txjac
10:49 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Nah..
There not that great.


Sounds like you are a photagrapher like me!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
266. txjac
10:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting Tygor:


Nah, it's not too bad. Nothing like 100s and dry going into October. We've all forgotten what anything else feels like so we don't know what we're missing :) Everything is dead already, not like rain and cool is going to do anything besides lift spirits.


I'd take some lifted spirits rigt now ...would love nothing more than to hear some rain. We did get to see a lightening show last night ...no rain though unfortunately
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
263. Tygor
10:41 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting violet312s:


Sigh. I so feel for you folks in Texas.


Nah, it's not too bad. Nothing like 100s and dry going into October. We've all forgotten what anything else feels like so we don't know what we're missing :) Everything is dead already, not like rain and cool is going to do anything besides lift spirits.
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
262. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:41 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979:


He's sent more than 500 messages, I keep selecting all in one page and deleting and he sends them faster than I can delete!

Block him.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
261. DDR
10:36 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
I've seen first hand what these feeder bands can do,Trinidad and Tobago get ravaged from time to time,the last time was Thomas in 2010.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
260. HuracandelCaribe
10:35 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
me too
Quoting radikalweather:
hello all!

no rain for us in northern puerto rico (arecibo) and the heat was horrible even though wind direction was from the north, the forecast tomorrow is that is going to shift to the south so i will expect even more heat, anyways in PR there is not a such thing as autumn, winter or spring...

i personally wanted some ophelia rain hehe

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
259. DDR
10:34 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
How unfortunate,a tiny feeder band undoubtedly enhanced by Dominica's mountains,this flooding news surprised me.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
258. JLPR2
10:34 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979:


He's sent more than 500 messages, I keep selecting all in one page and deleting and he sends them faster than I can delete!


Just block the blockhead's messages.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
257. aprinz1979
10:32 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I'd delete them.

*They're just a LOT of monkeys dancing or something*


He's sent more than 500 messages, I keep selecting all in one page and deleting and he sends them faster than I can delete!
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
256. radikalweather
10:30 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
hello all!

no rain for us in northern puerto rico (arecibo) and the heat was horrible even though wind direction was from the north, the forecast tomorrow is that is going to shift to the south so i will expect even more heat, anyways in PR there is not a such thing as autumn, winter or spring...

i personally wanted some ophelia rain hehe
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 6
255. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:29 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979:


Just got 10 messages from Magoubly. Delete them without reading?

Yeah, I'd delete them.

*They're just a LOT of monkeys dancing or something*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
254. AstroHurricane001
10:29 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Interesting fall low pressure area:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
253. aprinz1979
10:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Warning!

Please ignore the bloggers magoubly and Runferyourlives IMMEDIATELY!!

They/he/she sent me two messages on both accounts with the countless images that messed up the blog!

This is NO joke!


Just got 10 messages from Magoubly. Delete them without reading?
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
252. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.


The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.


This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 km/h or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

Typhoon Nesat was centered about 360 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 22 km/h across the northern part of the South China Sea in the general direction of Hainan Island to western Guangdong.

Under the influence of Nesat's broad circulation, local winds continue to strengthen this morning and gale force winds are affecting many areas. In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau and Peng Chau were 81 and 76 km/h respectively.

According to the present forecast track, Nesat will be closest to Hong Kong this morning, passing around 350 kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong. High winds are expected to persist this morning and there will also be squally showers. The number 8 gale or storm signal will remain in force for most of the morning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43656
251. RitaEvac
10:24 PM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979:


Page has been moved or no longer available


google it
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Hey guys. Slow day yet again?
PHILIPPE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:

The Secret Gov't Bank That's Financing More Solyndras


Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/09/28/gove rnment-bank-financing-more-solyndras/#ixzz1ZHwKYOT T


Page has been moved or no longer available
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Gonna ask again
I am going to go take a picture of the sunset.
What time should I go out?
Sunset: 6:54 pm

6:10 right now.


The answer is:

Maybe!
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Thanks for banning one of them Admin. Good to see you're here (:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Gonna ask again
I am going to go take a picture of the sunset.
What time should I go out?
Sunset: 6:54 pm

6:10 right now.

Where do you live?

I would personally go out about 10 minutes before the predicted sunset and wait a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Warning!

Please ignore the bloggers magoubly and Runferyourlives IMMEDIATELY!!

They/he/she sent me two messages on both accounts with the countless images that messed up the blog!

This is NO joke!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wildfires coming end of week, with dry air and fuel primed


Sigh. I so feel for you folks in Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS has been quite persistent now to develop a Tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean in the first week of October.. only model at this time to show this and its quite a ways out.
it showed a tropical storm and a hurricane then dropped it for about 3 to 4 days now out of about 12 of its run in the 3 days 10 show a hurricane in the carribean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Yesterday a couple of the posters here didn't "buy" the NHC track for "O". On intensity, the NHC has a hard time, but on forecast track, they are deadly. Don't bet against 'em. You'll lose your money!


I admit to being one of those yesterday. The crow is thawing and I'll be having it tomorrow. Probably braised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wildfires coming end of week, with dry air and fuel primed
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Don't forget wilma!


I did include Wilma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS has been quite persistent now to develop a Tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean in the first week of October.. only model at this time to show this and its quite a ways out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Texas continues to burn up.....Burn, Burn, Burnnnnnnn, the ring of fire.....

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Thank you all who answered my plea for help on prev page.

You were right, as soon as the page flipped everything is normal again.

I guess something was embedded...

Again, thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

when you look at the mjo in 2 weeks u think " yeah there is a hurricane going to be brewing in the carribean"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blog is very quite today. Maybe some lovely October models will cheer the blog up :)

Wonderful Wilma.


Marvelous Mitch.


Lovely Lili.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricyclone:
blog is quiet
ehh
almost 70 posts in 2 days...
wow
i need to take a break


I've totaled that much in 12 hours during Hurricane Irene..

Afternoon all. I see Ophelia is a TS again, well on its way to become Hurricane Ophelia. Very similar to Maria, was predicting this would probably happen days ago.

A decent looking TS in 2011.. who could have seen it coming??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yesterday a couple of the posters here didn't "buy" the NHC track for "O". On intensity, the NHC has a hard time, but on forecast track, they are deadly. Don't bet against 'em. You'll lose your money!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. JLPR2


Sunset over Ophelia.

Good to see the deeper convection east of the islands. If there is flooding now, imagine what would happen with that type of convection over them. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125571
Quoting Hurricyclone:

i shouldn't have posted that when i knew i would of gotten corrected

If you're wrong, you're going to be corrected, sorry. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
222. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its supposed to be, always is.


Yeah, it's pretty normal.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.