Ophelia regenerates; Typhoon Nesat heads towards China
Ophelia is back as a tropical depression, thanks to a reduction in wind shear that allowed the storm to re-organize yesterday afternoon just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, with good spiral banding and rotation. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia's heavy thunderstorms are not increasing, and are limited in areal extent. The low-level center is partially exposed to view, thanks to strong wind shear. No hurricane hunter flights are scheduled for today.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.
Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, and will continue to do so through Thursday. By Friday, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia intensifying into a hurricane by Saturday. With the models all agreeing on at track for Ophelia just east of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Warnings will probably be required for the island this weekend. Bermuda will be on the left (weak) side of Ophelia, so will miss the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rains. Ophelia may be a threat to Southeast Newfoundland early next week.
In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm may dissipate by 4 - 5 days from now.
Typhoon Nesat headed towards China
Typhoon Nesat is headed west towards a landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday, and in northern Vietnam just south of Hanoi on Friday. Nesat is a large but disorganized Category 1 storm, and will not have time to strengthen significantly before landfall. However, Nesat is a very wet storm, capable of dropping over a foot of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 20 people dead and severe flooding problems.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 06 UTC on Thursday September 29 show the Nesat is expected to dump over a foot of rain (red colors) along where its southern eyewall tracks. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast. Moisture from Hilary will not reach the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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google it
The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.
This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 km/h or more are expected from the southeast quarter.
Typhoon Nesat was centered about 360 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 22 km/h across the northern part of the South China Sea in the general direction of Hainan Island to western Guangdong.
Under the influence of Nesat's broad circulation, local winds continue to strengthen this morning and gale force winds are affecting many areas. In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau and Peng Chau were 81 and 76 km/h respectively.
According to the present forecast track, Nesat will be closest to Hong Kong this morning, passing around 350 kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong. High winds are expected to persist this morning and there will also be squally showers. The number 8 gale or storm signal will remain in force for most of the morning.
Just got 10 messages from Magoubly. Delete them without reading?
Yeah, I'd delete them.
*They're just a LOT of monkeys dancing or something*
no rain for us in northern puerto rico (arecibo) and the heat was horrible even though wind direction was from the north, the forecast tomorrow is that is going to shift to the south so i will expect even more heat, anyways in PR there is not a such thing as autumn, winter or spring...
i personally wanted some ophelia rain hehe
He's sent more than 500 messages, I keep selecting all in one page and deleting and he sends them faster than I can delete!
Just block the blockhead's messages.
Block him.
Nah, it's not too bad. Nothing like 100s and dry going into October. We've all forgotten what anything else feels like so we don't know what we're missing :) Everything is dead already, not like rain and cool is going to do anything besides lift spirits.
I'd take some lifted spirits rigt now ...would love nothing more than to hear some rain. We did get to see a lightening show last night ...no rain though unfortunately
Sounds like you are a photagrapher like me!
Just keep pressing the delete button
Same thing happened to me. Delete and then press refresh
I just deleted the messages. thanks
done. thanks
IP BLOCK!!!! NOW!
This is ridiculous!!! F'ing trolls. I have over 3000 mails in my box now. Awesome.
O is already a 50mph storm so it should be able to maintain itself a little better, but that doesn't seem to be the case; should look better with the help of D-max.
Last night...yeah...
If anybody gets any emails from somebody other than the bloggers I warned everybody about, and they are spamming (like the crazy monkies), please report it to all of us immediately so we can ignore them.
We saw what happened last night...People that were on the blog had no problem, well, other than the spam. But people who tried getting on the blog couldn't.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/YOUR_HANDLE/igno reuser.html?user=TROLL'S_HANDLE
Then just click the 'Update Ignored List' button, and the emotionally disturbed individual will go away.
If you aren't on the blog, you can't find out the user, like I had to deal with last night, lol.
I guess you could always email another blogger to get the name.
That's not quite true. Simply open up another browser window where you are not logged in to Wunderground, and all the new user's posts will be hidden. It's very simple from there to see who the offender is and plug their name into the link I provided.
No I don't. :\
but see, that's assuming you are able to get on the blog.
I left for a while yesterday, and when I came back, I could get the blog, but the comments page wouldn't pull up, therefore, I couldn't see any posts all at.
Stormtopmodel sent me about 600 emails. Ignore him!
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