Weakening Ophelia headed towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland, Canada, as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Yesterday, the center of Ophelia passed about 130 miles to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda airport picked up 0.24" of rain from Ophelia's outer rain bands, and had a peak wind gust of 24 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is asymmetric and has lost its eye, thanks to strong upper-level southwesterly winds creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The shear has destroyed a portion of Ophelia's eyewall, according to recent microwave satellite imagery. With the shear expected to increase today and Ophelia about to pass over waters too cold to support a hurricane, the hurricane's eyewall should collapse tonight, resulting in rapid weakening just before the storm arrives in Newfoundland Monday morning. Ophelia will bring a 6-hour period of high winds to Southeast Newfoundland beginning around 4 am local time Monday morning. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 87% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, a 15% chance of winds in excess of 57 mph, and no chance of hurricane force winds. The main threat to Southeast Newfoundland from Ophelia will probably be the minor to moderate flooding the storm's 2 - 4 inches of rain will cause.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ophelia as it skirted Bermuda last night, at 7:13 pm AST on October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation completely exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently in the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae over the Philippine Islands, taken at 03 UTC Saturday, October 1, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Surprisingly, the death toll from Nalgae's floods is relatively low so far, with three deaths reported. Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.
Jeff Masters
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MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FIVE NAMED STORMS...THREE HURRICANES...AND TWO MAJOR HURRICANES
FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2010) AVERAGES OF ABOUT 4
TROPICAL STORMS...TWO HURRICANES...AND ONE MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE
THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WAS ABOVE AVERAGE...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY WAS CLOSE TO THE LONG-TERM MEAN IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2011ATLAN.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- ---
TS ARLENE 29 JUN-1 JUL 65
TS BRET 17-22 JUL 65
TS CINDY 20-22 JUL 70
TS DON 27-30 JUL 50
TS EMILY 1-7 AUG 50
TS FRANKLIN 12-13 AUG 45
TS GERT 14-16 AUG 60
TS HARVEY 19-22 AUG 60
MH IRENE 20-28 AUG 120
TD TEN 25-26 AUG 35
TS JOSE 28-29 AUG 45
MH KATIA 29 AUG-10 SEP 135
TS LEE 2-5 SEP 60
H MARIA 6-16 SEP 80
TS NATE 7-11 SEP 70
MH OPHELIA 21 SEP - 115
TS PHILIPPE 24 SEP - 60
$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT
philipe its done
whats comming next
a cat 5 at your house
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...THINGS COULD GET
INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE VICINITY OF
FLORIDA/BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING LOCALLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS NEXT WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST AS PWATS SURGE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH EXCELLENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEN
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE TROUGH (LOOKS SUB-TROPICAL). BOTH 12Z SOLUTIONS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHWEST FL
COAST THEN MOVING NORTHWARD. THE OOZ ECMWF HAD THE LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS...SO OBVIOUSLY THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AS EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. FOR NOW KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
IS...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS/SKY/WIND MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
What would that look like?
5-6 days from now it will probably start to look wetter. The models are now starting to catch on to what is obvious should try to happen. Two days ago they were showing nothing between October 7th and 10th, but now they are.
Very very wet in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific regions.
But it would be a bad thing if something comes out of this, which it looks like it will.
Dvorak is not gospel, and this is not a Category 3 hurricane:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2011 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 40:32:08 N Lon : 60:01:27 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 946.4mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 5.7
Center Temp : -56.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 151km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 49.3 degrees
You're probably right...I still can't believe it strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane last night.
Who would've thought? Definitely not me..I thought a Category 2 hurricane was possible...but...a Category 4?!
Now that would be something else. One would have to think the season will go out with a banger if that came to fruition. It will be interesting to see what the models pick up on as we get closer to the end of the week.
the blob in the ycatan gets in the gom then moves nne over fla according to the wrf on tuesday of this week .
could oct be we can say its going to be a vrey active month before its all over hmmm starting
For heaven's sake - it pops right out of the side of the box!!
32.5n62.4w, 34.8n62.1w, 37.4n61.4w, 40.3n60.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 1Oct_6pmGMT and ending 2Oct_6pmGMT
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.691n58.036w-YJT is the endpoint of the 2Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbell at 45.635n60.493w-YPS is the same for the 2Oct_6amGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 34.5mph(55.5k/h) on a heading of 14.8degrees(NNW)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Ramea,Newfoundland ~13hours from now
Copy&paste 45.635n60.493w-yps, 47.691n58.036w-yjt, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-34.8n62.1w, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.4w, 37.4n61.4w-40.3n60.4w, bda, 37.4n61.4w-47.628n57.408w, mqc into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 2Oct_12pmGMT
* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
5 wish sould take us too W
Two days ago they had it southwest of Florida. Now there trending eastward(though the GFS still wants it west). I wouldn't doubt this taking a similar track to Andrea.
2-3. We may get more than one storm out of this coming burst, and then perhaps one more before the end of the month.
We can expect anything in this weird season....
Ok, thanks.
If that does happen then we could get a rather large storm, with lots of rainfall.
Noel(2007) comes to mind, it drenched the Caribbean before moving NE into the Atl. of course it would probably be slightly stronger.
4 and 0 , dere ya Geaux.
Detroit, MI
4:31 PM EDT on October 02, 2011 (GMT -0400)Elev: 610 ft Lon: 83.1° WLat: 42.3° N
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Updated 4:31 PM EDT Make this Location a Weather Sticker®
View WunderPhotos® in: Detroit, Michigan
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Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Emmons Orchard, Wyandotte
Elevation
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Temperature
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Kari Kiefer
Weather Underground Forecast for Sunday, October 02, 2011.
Heavy rains persist in the East and scattered showers move into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will become more elongated as it shifts southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Flow around this system will pull moisture in from the Atlantic Ocean, which supplies the system with energy and strength.
This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from the Mid-Atlantic through the New England states.
Rainfall totals will vary around an inch, with up to 2 inches possible in areas of thunderstorm development. Along the back side of the system, strong flow from the north will pull in cool Canadian air across the Eastern US.
Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s are anticipated for the Ohio River Valley and Eastern Valleys. Frost advisories have been issued as overnight lows will dip into the 30s and 40s across these areas.
Further west, a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains, allowing for sunny skies and warm temperatures. Unseasonably high temperatures will range in the 70s and 80s across the Northern Plains.
Out West, more clouds with scattered showers are expected as a trough of low pressure offshore pushes a cold front over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Expect less than a half of an inch of rain in most areas, with more rain anticipated at higher elevations.
Weather Underground Broadcast Network
Weather History
Did you know that...,
Intense rain on September 30th and October 1st of 1989 caused rivers in Georgia to rise several feet above their respective flood stages on October 2nd. Six inches of rain was reported at Athens, Ga. and one man was killed when he was sucked through drainage lines.
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
...PHILIPPE HANGING TOUGH AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 52.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
A NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO
THE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT
A 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO
PHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
BY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE-
PRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.
PHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A
SHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST. THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER
AND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND
IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN
SHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 26.3N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 26.2N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 25.7N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 25.4N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 25.5N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 27.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
This caught my eye.
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
...CENTER OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 59.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE
HAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA
IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL
BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
COLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24
HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 41.6N 59.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 45.2N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.6N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 51.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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