Weakening Ophelia headed towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland, Canada, as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Yesterday, the center of Ophelia passed about 130 miles to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda airport picked up 0.24" of rain from Ophelia's outer rain bands, and had a peak wind gust of 24 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is asymmetric and has lost its eye, thanks to strong upper-level southwesterly winds creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The shear has destroyed a portion of Ophelia's eyewall, according to recent microwave satellite imagery. With the shear expected to increase today and Ophelia about to pass over waters too cold to support a hurricane, the hurricane's eyewall should collapse tonight, resulting in rapid weakening just before the storm arrives in Newfoundland Monday morning. Ophelia will bring a 6-hour period of high winds to Southeast Newfoundland beginning around 4 am local time Monday morning. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 87% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, a 15% chance of winds in excess of 57 mph, and no chance of hurricane force winds. The main threat to Southeast Newfoundland from Ophelia will probably be the minor to moderate flooding the storm's 2 - 4 inches of rain will cause.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ophelia as it skirted Bermuda last night, at 7:13 pm AST on October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation completely exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently in the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae over the Philippine Islands, taken at 03 UTC Saturday, October 1, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Surprisingly, the death toll from Nalgae's floods is relatively low so far, with three deaths reported. Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.

Jeff Masters

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92L has winds of 35mph and the forecast for azores today is gusts of 75 km/H witch is a good gusts
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Wow, the CMC aint playing



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
The seasons eighteenth tropical depression is coming soon:

AL, 92, 2011100306, , BEST, 0, 394N, 265W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
00Z Euro 168 hour


240 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Invest 92L:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Good Morning..NOGAPS, Euro and GFS still seeing a potential player near florida

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
92l all the way up there
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hello atention he have a new invest its 92L and i hope it becomes a hurricane

but i have a question
how high is the shear in 92 L ?
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

FLORIDA HAS A PARTICULARLY INTERESTING PROBLEM THIS PERIOD.
ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AND JUST
DRIFTS WESTWARD AS RIDGING OVER ITS TOP REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SOLUTION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AS WELL AS
THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN/ AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND CAUSES A
BROAD MONSOON-LIKE DEPRESSION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN TEPID AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW
COULD LEAD TO A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS /WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND HEAVY RAIN
NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. POSSIBLE
OCTOBER ANALOGS TO THIS FEATURE /WHICH SHOWED A SIMILAR PATTERN
ACROSS THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS/ ARE THE OCTOBER 14 1956
QUASI-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE OCTOBER 4 1976 CYCLONE /SUBTROPICAL
STORM FOUR/. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE
EAST...MORE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF THE MAY 19-20 2009
GULF GALE WHICH CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.





Very interesting... HPC's forecast resembles quite a bit the ECMWF run.
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The NHC Advisory has downgraded Ophelia to TropicalStorm status with a projected landfall near the western AvalonPeninsula,Newfoundland (southeast of NWP)...
but to maintain the historicity of the ATCF mappings...

40.3n60.6w, 42.5n59.7w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_3Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
39.9n60.7w, 42.5n59.7w, 45.5n56.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 2Oct_6amGMT and ending 3Oct_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 3Oct_6amGMT,
the island-to-island blob at 47.506n57.387w-MQC is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 3Oct_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline-to-island blob at 47.628n57.408w-MQC is the same for the 2Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 43.5mph(70k/h) on a heading of 36.5degrees(NE)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over RedIsland,Newfoundland ~half an hour ago

Copy&paste 47.628n57.408w-mqc, 47.506n57.387w-mqc, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.5w, 37.4n61.5w-39.9n60.7w, 39.9n60.7w-42.5n59.7w, 42.5n59.7w-45.5n56.5w, 42.5n59.7w-47.39n54.25w, nwp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 3Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Good Morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

FLORIDA HAS A PARTICULARLY INTERESTING PROBLEM THIS PERIOD.
ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AND JUST
DRIFTS WESTWARD AS RIDGING OVER ITS TOP REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SOLUTION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AS WELL AS
THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN/ AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND CAUSES A
BROAD MONSOON-LIKE DEPRESSION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN TEPID AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW
COULD LEAD TO A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS /WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND HEAVY RAIN
NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. POSSIBLE
OCTOBER ANALOGS TO THIS FEATURE /WHICH SHOWED A SIMILAR PATTERN
ACROSS THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS/ ARE THE OCTOBER 14 1956
QUASI-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE OCTOBER 4 1976 CYCLONE /SUBTROPICAL
STORM FOUR/. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE
EAST...MORE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF THE MAY 19-20 2009
GULF GALE WHICH CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.



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It's possible, if this 2011 season wants to throw any more similarities to 2005 at us, 92L could Vincify himself. (well, in terms of the location and track, not the name)
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Hmm there is a new invest, 92L. It is located near the Azores and is moving west-southwest. Is there a chance of this invest forming into a tropical cyclone?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup it is John too look at the name of the track this go too copy and it will come up with the name

Quoting Tazmanian:





LOL


there storm tracks of Ginger and the 1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane LOL all they have too to is copy and they can see what track they are for


thats not a vary good gussing game now if you want too make in too a gussing game then you most re move the track names or its called cheating

Do you cheat at every game you play???? LOL
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According to HURDAT, it is Storm 3 1913.

00Z August 27 to 06Z September 12. 390 hours!

Longest duration continuously at tropical storm strength. However Philippe holds the record for the satellite era.
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Quoting 996tt:


How did they know the strength for 28 days back then. No buoys, radars, planes and etc. I doubt a boat followed it around. Just curious how in the world they could monitor strength when those things were over the Atlantic? Did they even realize a storm was out there until it got close to land? I always envisioned people being caught off guard by the storms and not even knowing about them until skies started getting bad or birds started acting crazy.


Looks like studies made from historic data, taking in consideration Barometric pressure... in diferent locations

References in Wikipedia point to:

"Central pressure of 995 mb (18Z on the 3rd) suggests winds of
56 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 55 kt utilized in best track. Winds are adjusted accordingly on the 3rd to the 5th. A central pressure of 930 mb (on the 7th) suggests winds of 128 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 130 kt utilized in best track. Winds are adjusted accordingly on the 6th to the 8th. A central pressure of 940 mb (around 12Z on the 8th) suggests winds of 119 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 120 kt used in best track. This agrees with the assessment of Boose et al. (2003) in their wind-caused damage estimates of extensive Fujita-scale F3 damage from this hurricane".


There were barometers in many places ...

Barometer History

Although Evangelista Torricelli is universally credited with inventing the barometer in 1643,[1][2][3] historical documentation also suggests Gasparo Berti, an Italian mathematician and astronomer, unintentionally built a water barometer sometime between 1640 and 1643.[1][4] French scientist and philosopher Rene Descartes described the design of an experiment to determine atmospheric pressure as early as 1631, but there is no evidence that he built a working barometer at that time.[1].................................


(From Wikipedia)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
231. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:





LOL


there storm tracks of Ginger and the 1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane LOL all they have too to is copy and they can see what track they are for


thats not a vary good gussing game now if you want too make in too a gussing game then you most re move the track names or its called cheating


No Taz, if we don't do the cheating part it is a good game.

Making honest guesses isn't that hard to achieve.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 I think.




yup it is John too look at the name of the track this go too copy and it will come up with the name
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
229. 996tt
Quoting sunlinepr:


1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane and the eleventh deadliest tropical cyclone in the basin. It was an intense and long-lived Atlantic Cape Verde-type hurricane which crossed Puerto Rico over the two day period August 8 to August 9, 1899. Many deaths occurred as a result, due to flooding. The cyclone kept tropical storm strength or higher for 28 days, which makes it the longest duration Atlantic hurricane on record and the second-longest anywhere in the world (behind Hurricane John in 1994). The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.


How did they know the strength for 28 days back then. No buoys, radars, planes and etc. I doubt a boat followed it around. Just curious how in the world they could monitor strength when those things were over the Atlantic? Did they even realize a storm was out there until it got close to land? I always envisioned people being caught off guard by the storms and not even knowing about them until skies started getting bad or birds started acting crazy.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Can anyone guess these Storms?







LOL


there storm tracks of Ginger and the 1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane LOL all they have too to is copy and they can see what track they are for


thats not a vary good gussing game now if you want too make in too a gussing game then you most re move the track names or its called cheating
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
227. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
reminds me of Ophelia, any oportunity he gets of low shear will be taken by him I'm sure...


Yeah.
The LLC is under the convection, again.

Just doesn't give up.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
This one's gotta be it. Storm 3 1913.

00Z August 27 to 06Z September 12. 390 hours!
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Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe's resilience is amazing.
reminds me of Ophelia, any oportunity he gets of low shear will be taken by him I'm sure...
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Quoting JLPR2:
No idea about the first one, but the second one looks like San Ciriaco.


1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane and the eleventh deadliest tropical cyclone in the basin. It was an intense and long-lived Atlantic Cape Verde-type hurricane which crossed Puerto Rico over the two day period August 8 to August 9, 1899. Many deaths occurred as a result, due to flooding. The cyclone kept tropical storm strength or higher for 28 days, which makes it the longest duration Atlantic hurricane on record and the second-longest anywhere in the world (behind Hurricane John in 1994). The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 I think.

Do you know the history of Hurricane/Typhoon John, I came off Africa but the ATL was to hostile and it developed in the EPAC. Came off Africa on July 25 1994. It turn extratropical on September 10. From birth to death 48 days. WOW!!!!!
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Ahhh this storm may be it. Storm 9 in 1898 was a tropical storm for 12 1/2 days or 300 hours. It lasted from 06Z Oct 2 to 18Z Oct 14.
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Storm 2 in 1890 was a tropical storm for 9 1/2 days or 228 hours from 12Z August 18 to 0Z August 28.

Storm 5 in 1898 was a tropical storm for 9 days/216 hours
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Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 I think.
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Storm 5 in 1887 was a tropical storm for 210 hours from July 30 06Z to Aug 8 00Z.
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What about this one?

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Top one is Ginger in 1971.


Found a long lasting tropical storm Nov 25-Dec 2 1878, 186 hours.

Correct

Quoting JLPR2:
No idea about the first one, but the second one looks like San Ciriaco.

Correct.
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Top one is Ginger in 1971.


Found a long lasting tropical storm Nov 25-Dec 2 1878, 186 hours.
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215. JLPR2
No idea about the first one, but the second one looks like San Ciriaco.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I am looking through HURDAT. From 1850-1870, there is no tropical storm recorded as lasting this long at tropical storm strength!
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Can anyone guess these Storms?


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Quoting Chicklit:
Re Post 101: Sorry, sunlinepr, but I had to post a better version of White Bird by It's a Beautiful Day.
Although I have not heard this song in many years, after you reminded me, I now recall how beautiful I once felt this song was.

img src="">

Thanks!


Nothing to be sorry about.... Thanks for that version...(That's the original).... It came back to my mind today after many years...

I was also remembering a group called The flock - Jerry Goodman played violin...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Ah. It was Maria. Tropical storm for 192 hours. Not 195 like Fay.
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EPAC could have another system in 66hrs


Heads toward MEX
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Quoting winter123:


Do you have statistics on that? (Longest a tropical storm has remained a tropical storm, not weakening to TD or intensifying to hurricane). Kind of a pointless statistic, but interesting nonetheless.


No I don't. I know that Fay in 2008 made it to 195 hours, 8 days of 6 hour advisories and 1 intermediate. And another storm tied it this year. If Phillipe can hang on for 5 more days like the NHC forecast says I think that will be a record. Discussion has Phillipe chugging along 120 hours out.
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208. JLPR2
ASCAT had a good pass today:

Philippe maintaining itself wonderfully.

This one would probably be a hurricane if conditions were a little more favorable.

And there goes Ophelia.


Also, a broad spin embedded in the Monsoonal trof.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Philippe has been a tropical storm continuously for 198 hours as of the 11 p.m. advisory. That is the longest a storm in the Atlantic has been a tropical storm in recent years.


Do you have statistics on that? (Longest a tropical storm has remained a tropical storm, not weakening to TD or intensifying to hurricane). Kind of a pointless statistic, but interesting nonetheless.
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206. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

On Africa it looks good, but look in the E ATL, shear is waiting for it.



Shear is moderate in the area. 20knots, not destructive, but inhibiting. These are the waves to watch once they reach the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still have 200 messages in my inbox that won't delete because of that stupid troll the other night.


178 here.
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Philippe has been a tropical storm continuously for 198 hours as of the 11 p.m. advisory. That is the longest a storm in the Atlantic has been a tropical storm in recent years.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Someone remind Africa that it is October. :P

On Africa it looks good, but look in the E ATL, shear is waiting for it.

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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


I have the same bad discs. Traction treatments saved my sanity. For me the pain was in both hips.

How long did you have the pain for?
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201. JLPR2
Someone remind Africa that it is October. :P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is there anyone here that is willing to exchange L5/S1 lower back disc, The one I have is degenerating and causing inflammation of nerve which is giving me pain down my left side. I've had 4.5 years of this pain, and I guess I got another 50,60,70 years more.


I have the same bad discs. Traction treatments saved my sanity. For me the pain was in both hips.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Cosmic, haha, I think I will hold off on the evac. plans until there is actually some action in the Carribean :) I live in suberban north Orlando and as mentioned, the ants are very active and have been seen crawling all over and particularly at the top of potted plants. Also, building small "mounds" in odd places. I noticed this beginning yesterday and even moreso today. Please do add this to the "blog ant-ledger"! It would be pretty remarkable if ants, or any other creature, could portend a tropical cyclone hit before a system had even formed.
That's the reason the "ant-ledger" began. It started back in 2005 when member LaDobeLady from Houma, La. reported exactly what you're reporting.....i.e. building mounds in strange places and such. That was 3 days before Katrina-to-be was declared a TD. Genus solenopsis wound up being correct with landfall.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.