Weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia hits Newfoundland
A weakening Tropical Storm Ophelia passed over Southeast Newfoundland this morning, bringing tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. Ophelia's center passed over Cape Race at about 10:30 am local time, and that station measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 61 mph. Ophelia's highest winds were recorded at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 59 mph, occurred at 9:30 am local time. The capital of St. John's received 0.94" inches of rain, and recorded a peak wind gust of 40 mph this morning. Ophelia's greatest rains at any airport in Newfoundland were 1.72" at St. Pierre. Ophelia is headed out to sea at 35 mph, and will transition to an extratropical storm this afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with modest heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. Shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. Philippe could become a hurricane in Wednesday or Thursday when the shear relaxes. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
92L over the Azores no threat to develop for several days
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an extratropical storm with plenty of spin but no heavy thunderstorm activity is located over the Azores Islands. This storm, designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning, is over cold waters of 22 - 23°C and under very high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots. 92L is not a threat to develop today and Tuesday, and is not being given any mention in NHC's tropical weather outlook. However, 92L could start to build some heavy thunderstorms by Wednesday, as it moves west-southwest and finds warmer waters and lower wind shear. The system is unlikely to threaten any land areas.
Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday afternoon. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning, and is being blamed for eighteen deaths. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Typhoon Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.
Jeff Masters
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LONG TERM...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HAVE CAPPED POPS JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY...AS IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS WILL ESTABLISH.
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPIN UP OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE DISCOUNTED THE DGEX
SOLN WHICH BRINGS A VIGOROUS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
NONETHELESS... RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
Excerpt:
THE EVOLUTION OF A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA REMAINS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS KEPT GOOD DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY WITH
THE SYSTEM AND STILL SHOWS GOOD SUPPORT FOR ITS EXISTENCE. THIS
LOW IS SPAWNED BY ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES WHICH DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. A
MOBILE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEAKNESS TO THE CYCLONES NORTHWEST
CAUSED BY THE PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW NORTHWEST
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WITH TIME. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE EMPHATIC WITH ITS DEEPENING
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE TEPID SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THEY LIE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN IN THE CARDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. POSSIBLE OCTOBER ANALOGS TO
THIS FEATURE /WHICH SHOWED A SIMILAR PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST AND
HIGH PLAINS/ REMAIN THE OCTOBER 14 1956 QUASI-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
THE OCTOBER 4 1974 CYCLONE /SUBTROPICAL STORM FOUR/. THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIE NORTHEAST/TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAY
19-20 2009 GULF GALE WHICH CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF OVER SEVEN
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.
Melbourne NWS Discussion
EXTENDED...A CONSENSUS OF GUID ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HGHT FALLS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC CYCLONE
GENESIS OCCURRING EITHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO NEAR THE SRN FL
PENINSULA. THIS IS A MORE WESTERN PLACEMENT TO WHAT WAS DEPICTED
ON MONDAY.
DGEX/CMC ARE MORE ROBUST ATTM WITH DEPTH OF SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT S
OR JUST W OF SRN FL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND LIFTING NWD...WITH
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING WAVE/WEAKER SFC FEATURE. THERE EXISTS HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE ON SLOW MOVING UPR CYCLONE AND A CERTAIN
DURATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MENTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL DURING
THE WEEKEND ASCD WITH RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF SFC FEATURE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN HAVE
RAISED POPS DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN PRODUCING MECHANICS IN THE LOCAL AREA. MOST
NOTEWORTHY WILL BE A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF STOUT ONSHORE WINDS
WHICH WL PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AND LARGE POUNDING WAVES LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Link
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph
does anyone have some good insight? I know it is a stupid question given nothing has formed but if someone can please advise, thanks
If a deep enough system develops then there could be delays. For now, the changes of a travel delay directly related to WX generated by this aforementioned disturbance are currently low in the W FL Coast.
Once we start getting close to the weekend, we'll see if such a system does come to fruition and how strong.
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