Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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The center is ~35 miles from the Melbourne Radar site to the ESE
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Looks to me like the 93L will cross the Cape. It's going to be close, but I believe it will make a landfall on the cape.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure I agree with that based on the steering, which last I checked shows a huge ridge to the north of this system and steering to the WNW; here is the current steering.



not really sure how the system moves up the coast with this set up
The ridge will move east while the system stays down there without moving much, ridge moves out of the way system moves north?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
my cousins in palm bay just told me the windows and doors are literally vibrating with the wind gusts , and the yard is taking a beating


Same here in Melbourne. Sustained in the 25-30 mph range all weekend with gusts 35-40 according to my weather station. Also almost 8 inches of rain at my house. Nice weekend :)
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Quoting Levi32:
1004.4mb at Sebastian, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Invest 93L (LOL) is one strange thing. Can't even do it justice. It's freaking insane.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting Chicklit:
my poor dog has to go out...


mine peed on the sofa!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure I agree with that based on the steering, which last I checked shows a huge ridge to the north of this system and steering to the WNW; here is the current steering.



not really sure how the system moves up the coast with this set up


Ok but here's the steering from 9 hours earlier. Would you have expected 93L to be moving NNW towards Cape Canaveral (or passing it up) based on that? There is more going on here than hard-set steering currents.

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Whatever Florida is dealing with they can have it.I just know that I'm enjoying this sunny dry spell we're having before that storm system that is currently effecting Florida comes up and ruins our picture perfet weather.Rain rain go away!!.
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Looks like someone is trying to stick this GOM forecast right up anothers butt.
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Crazy squalls...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Sounds pretty much the way it did here last night.
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my poor dog has to go out...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11036
Quoting reedzone:
I believe we may see a high chance for Subtropical development at 8 p.m. based on impressive pressures, radar, and winds. Obs are impressive for a normal low pressure system. The radar continues to get even more impressive as the hours go by.
if i were the NHC i would issue a TS warning for the space coast they are experiencing tropical storm conditions
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In Cocoa area, and all i can say is we have our own little pond going in our backyard. winds whipping the trees, power outages a couple of times from the past two days. the wal-mart down the road has their roof leaking, lol. tired of the wind and rain already. i want my sunshine back!!!
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Quoting Levi32:
The 18z GFS has 93L centered west of Lake Okeechobee 4 and a half hours from now. Is this going to be correct? No. This is how far off the models are with this system. The storm will stay along the Florida Peninsula and not cross into the Gulf of mexico.



not sure I agree with that based on the steering, which last I checked shows a huge ridge to the north of this system and steering to the WNW; here is the current steering.



not really sure how the system moves up the coast with this set up
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my cousins in palm bay just told me the windows and doors are literally vibrating with the wind gusts , and the yard is taking a beating
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Quoting charlottefl:
I'd say this is very close to meeting the criteria for a STS..


Without yet having done a thorough analysis on it, it certainly looks that way.
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1004.4mb at Sebastian, Florida.
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Strangley still here in St. Aug. wind at 0 for now wow just 5 minutes ago it blew my boat top canapoy off...
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I believe we may see a high chance for Subtropical development at 8 p.m. based on impressive pressures, radar, and winds. Obs are impressive for a normal low pressure system. The radar continues to get even more impressive as the hours go by.
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dang it give me a name and give me a track at 8pm, and turn slightly more wnw please lol
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If your on the East coast TVS signatures are starting to pop up...
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Significant wind event unfolding over the space coast at palm bay winds are currently at tropical storm force gusting to 60 Mph
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Looks like Mexico is about to get what Florida had back in 2004.A 1 2 3 punch but without a 4th storm and it will be a few days apart from each other.
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Hearing some growling off to the west... guess there's more action coming our way...

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Just had a strong wind gust over 50 mph here in Palm Coast... This is not a normal monsoonal Low Pressure system, stop the downcasting. This is a Subtropical system.
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Check this out. Bouy data coming from about 120 miles off Cocoa Beach.

Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.906N 78.471W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 9 Oct 2011 21:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (80) at 36.9 kt gusting to 44.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 22.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 79.5 F
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The 18z GFS has 93L centered west of Lake Okeechobee 4 and a half hours from now. Is this going to be correct? No. This is how far off the models are with this system. The storm will stay along the Florida Peninsula and not cross into the Gulf of mexico.

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Quoting Levi32:
Here's the real pressure data from Vero Beach from the official reporting station. It's currently 1005.5mb there as of 30 minutes ago.



Still, quite impressive. Not even in the center, so it could be 1002 in the middle of the thing. Very unusual system, as expected. Needless to say, some strong squalls are being reported.

My family in the KSC area is already saying that their roofs are leaking.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Vero1:
What happened to it? Why am I here then?


Oh well.... glad to see you there Vero :) Didn't see you before lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very unique looking system on radar.. I bet there are very strong winds in that core off Vero Beach.


However the pressures are not centered over this, they are very sprawled out.. very classic of a sub-tropical cyclone.
not a true center rain here on the west coast still comming up from the ese if this center was true our rain would be from the ene or ne
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How low do pressures go in subtropical systems?
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I'd say this is very close to meeting the criteria for a STS..
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Just a broad LP monsoon trough looking mess that extends down S into the Caribbean :)
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322. Vero1
Quoting CaribBoy:
There is NO VERO
What happened to it? Why am I here then?
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Here's the real pressure data from Vero Beach from the official reporting station. It's currently 1005.5mb there as of 30 minutes ago.

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well nhc has her a 3 at landfall and she isnt looking all that good now so i was wondering what you thought about her :)


Looks pretty dang good to me. Could certainly be a Cat3 by the time it makes landfall.

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Bouy further up the coast away from the center is reporting 31 knots gusts to 38 knots up off the coast of Jacksonville.
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There is NO VERO
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very unique looking system on radar.. I bet there are very strong winds in that core off Vero Beach.


However the pressures are not centered over this, they are very sprawled out.. very classic of a sub-tropical cyclone.


I think it is Subtropical
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316. Skyepony (Mod)
Power keeps flickering..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The surface circulation and the mid-level circulation do not appear to be stacked and the surface circulation does not appear to be too well defined, but gosh darn there are some low pressures being reported on the space coast. Vero Beach had a 1001 mb pressure.


I would question that with all other surrounding stations reporting 1007-1009mb.
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Pressure is 1009.8 here about ~130 miles to the WSW of Vero...
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Bouy just off Cocoa Beach 31 knots gusts to 38 knots.
The low center should go very close to this bouy.
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An average heading of about 300 degrees has to be maintained for the next 12-24 hours for 93L to get over the Gulf of Mexico. It's moving at about 330 degrees during the last 6 hours.

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I4 44 dBZ 12,000 ft. 2 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 78 knots ESE (107)
2 P6 44 dBZ 11,000 ft. 2 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell
2 G1 43 dBZ 14,000 ft. 5 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell
2 P7 43 dBZ 10,000 ft. 1 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 72 knots ESE (116)
2 M0 41 dBZ 12,000 ft. 3 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 14 knots SSW (199)
2 A8 41 dBZ 12,000 ft. 2 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 10 knots WNW (302) (near Vero)
2 U8 41 dBZ 12,000 ft. 2 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SE (141)
1 L0 40 dBZ 15,000 ft. 3 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 33 knots ESE (107)
2 R5 38 dBZ 15,000 ft. 2 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SSE (151)
2 L2 37 dBZ 5,000 ft. 1 kg/m%uFFFD 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell

Gusting up to 37 mph in NSB now.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11036
Very unique looking system on radar.. I bet there are very strong winds in that core off Vero Beach.


However the pressures are not centered over this, they are very sprawled out.. very classic of a sub-tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Hi Levi when the nexr video? I really enjoy the way you break things down!
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Quoting Levi32:


I haven't really looked at Jova.
well nhc has her a 3 at landfall and she isnt looking all that good now so i was wondering what you thought about her :)
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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