Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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632. If it where to make landfall in Florida it wouldn't do so until later this week, not today. Henceforth, no update from StormW. Whatever, I'm done dealing with you. Your here to stir up trouble and are about as hard headed as a brick wall, so I'm just going to say good day sir.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.
i agree we are having a relaxed discussion and this CHILD is causing trouble
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
619. Serious as in like a major hurricane is about to hit the USA, a developing TS in the Caribbean happens every year. Plus, as I'm sure he told you if you two are ''best friends'', he has a family at home and he likes to spend time with them on weekends. Levi doesn't post updates on Sundays either.
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.
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Just a fun cone:

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Quoting j2008:

Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?

Organization.

And yes, the MJO is buried SOLIDLY into the whole Atlantic basin, Eastern Atlantic and all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting daveron:




yes and now they right because theypoint towards sou fla...you need to have a cup of coffee and wake up ...is it was serious like teddy said storm w would post any time day or night and storm will not post because in his words nothing to it..
Im having a nice cup of coffee and trying to enjoy this blog. Just Chillax and enjoy it with us:)
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Quoting daveron:
yes tropical ana 13 in his words ITS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ...no RECON scheduled to even investigate thats funny kid

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting Skyepony:


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.


like a wilma?
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Good Morning from South Fla.. thanks everyone for their thoughts on 95L..should be interesting in the coming days..
G'Day
Steve
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626. Skyepony (Mod)
It's here...

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619. Serious as in like a major hurricane is about to hit the USA, a developing TS in the Caribbean happens every year. Plus, as I'm sure he told you if you two are ''best friends'', he has a family at home and he likes to spend time with them on weekends. Levi doesn't post updates on Sundays either.
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Quoting j2008:

Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?
MJO is here the whole basin especially the carribean is fired up
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very intrested to see the 2pm TWO
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621. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.


Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.

to me it appears likely we will see an upgrade either late today or tonight , and as for watches anyone from tampa down to the florida keys needs to monitor very closely but looks to me somewhere between sarasota and ft myers could be the crossing point
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, he even posted that he would do an update on Monday. He never posts on weekends unless its an emergency developing system with lives in danger.
Exactly.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He doesn't normally post on weekends unless there is a hurricane.


Correct, he even posted that he would do an update on Monday. He never posts on weekends unless its an emergency developing system with lives in danger.
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Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting daveron:





well teddy that should tell you that storm w isnt really concerned about this system at all hitting sou fla...he hasnt posted since oct 14 ...dont sound like hes to worried about this teddy boy...
He doesn't normally post on weekends unless there is a hurricane.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Partially if it splits or not. Many global models suggest that the whole thing whirls off to the BOC (notice the direction it's moving the last few frames too). 1/2 gets overland as the front comes~ dragging the trough it ate lastnight up toward the panhandle, spinning that up some. Possibly also then dragging the rest toward SFL after.

It's very dynamic still. If it consolidates & stays off land before the front then around Tampa is probably most likely.
Thanks
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613. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM missed everything in the Atlantic lastnight.

Quoting spathy:


AAAAARRRRRGGGGG!
My poor vegi seedlings have been under assault once already!


A few days after 92L I peeled back the layer of oak leaves where I'd planted an assortment of root crops.. A good percent had germinated. I've got to get out there to tend all that.
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I am trying to use my "Iggy" button for the first time ever but it takes me here, "ChillinInTheKeys does not have any blog entries". What's up with that?

Tried it on FF & IE.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 696
Who knows if, when or where, or even what 95L will be a week from now, but if it does hit TB area it will be a strange timing of the last hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. "1921 storm"

Article about it below:


The storm was observed on October 21 while several hundred miles southwest of Jamaica. Its origin is unknown, though it possibly developed from an extratropical storm over Panama a day earlier. A high pressure system over Bermuda caused a north-northwest motion, allowing for the storm to intensify over favorable conditions. On October 22, the storm attained hurricane status shortly after passing 10 miles (16 km) east of the Swan Islands. On October 23, the hurricane entered the Yucatán Channel, with its eastern side brushing Cuba.
As it turned to the north in the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane continued to strengthen, and reached a peak of 140 mph (225 km/h) on October 24. It slowly weakened as it headed to the northeast, and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Tarpon Springs, Florida on the 25th with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
Once again I think the comparisons to the 1995 season and this one are interesting. Pablo in 1995 formed at about 36 W and became a short lived Tropical Storm in October.
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I give up with you daveron, cloudburst, or whatever the heck you want to be. And for what its worth, here's what stormw posted about 95L. And also, his last update was on October 14th, the situation with 95L has changed quite rapidly since. Point is, your lying through your teeth.

The current wind shear forecast calls for upper level winds over that area to become a little more conducive, with an upper level anticyclone possibly following this area in tandem%u2026and albeit not optimal, may be enough for further slow development over the next 48-72 hours. Currently, the NHC has assigned a LOW (20%) probability of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours.
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607. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.


NOAA's Invest is looking good on ASCAT this morning. I think it will really pull it together as it approaches the islands. Around 55W. May turn off North around there too.
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606. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Does how far W 95L go, depend on how far N it goes towards Fl?


Partially if it splits or not. Many global models suggest that the whole thing whirls off to the BOC (notice the direction it's moving the last few frames too). 1/2 gets overland as the front comes~ dragging the trough it ate lastnight up toward the panhandle, spinning that up some. Possibly also then dragging the rest toward SFL after.

It's very dynamic still. If it consolidates & stays off land before the front then around Tampa is probably most likely.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
doesnt the euro bring disturbed weather in from the east into the carib beginning of next wk?
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Quoting StormHype:


Can't see it making it that far north with the big front coming down. Probably between Cedar Key and Naples as a TD or TS with a cold back side.

That pattern probaby means nothing. I thought it was interesting and wanted to share with you guys and gals.
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Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
NAM at 57 hours. Low bring heavy rains to North Fl. I'm not sure the Low will get that far north, but who knows?



Comparison with GFS at 57 hours. Very similar.

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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting daveron:



no teddy you are wrong again storm w was right about you people you dont value anyones opinion but your own...if you dont agree with you guys you get put on and ignore list...storm w said none of you guys have been right all season...every storm is a fla hit ...well i dont think fla has been hit since wilma so you guys need to pick it up a little and say the facts..the facts are this is going into the yucatan and possibly bend sw as the huge high moves south behind the front...


No, and for the record StormW was a valued blogger on and I respected him a lot. It was sad to see him go. He wouldn't say that about us the entire blog, nor does he have the time to constantly bash us as you make him out to as. Basically, your lying. And also, there have been several FL hits since Wilma. Most noticeably Tropical Storm Fay.. 4 times.
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Quoting overwash12:
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Quoting daveron:



teddy like i said sou fla will get a few inches of rain but not from no tropical system from the cold front in mid week...


Local forecasters calling for an estimated 4.5" in the Fort Myers area.
Will it happen? Who knows, but some significant rains are expected.

And I don't know how you can't see the influence of all the tropical moisture.
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I actually think the center of 95L is actually further east around 19.4N/84.8W
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting chrisdscane:
looks like a tampa landfall as a Ts is the best bet atm
not looking good for us around tampa so far, maybe things will change, still days away
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42070
Quoting Skyepony:


I like somewhere between just south of Tampa to the Panhandle. Still a bit of uncertainty.
Well,It will be fun to watch. However it pans out.
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Some of you people take this BLOG way too personal
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Quoting Skyepony:


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.
Does how far W 95L go, depend on how far N it goes towards Fl?
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Quoting scott39:
There is no "safe bet" right now. 95L still has to develope.
I know,that's why I said system. It may never reach T.S. status!
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Quoting spathy:
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27
2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

PEACE
BARTOW 8 8.1 SAT 09 PM 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 MSG

$$
gee those people are going to be in big trouble if this storm slows down over florida, its a heavy rain maker
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42070

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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