Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.
The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.
Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.
Jeff Masters
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About 1/2 hour ago looking west from spotts beach south side grand cayman
I've been lurking.. you did good! :o)
Crazy weather but it makes a beautiful picture!
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
just checking in to see what is going on with our Caribbean blob... some of those outter clouds are slipping up to us here in SE Florida.
MARK
19.96N/84.63W
as you can see from the drought map and the moisture maps.
and a few days ago all of South and Central Florida were blue and dark green on moisture maps.
These maps are measuring fire hazard and soil moisture, not necessary drought according to rainfall.
-------------------------
This is the real "drought map" for our area.
: )
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 15th, with Video
Toxic algae is sucking the oxygen out of Lake Erie.
The lake is currently undergoing one of the worst algae blooms in decades, turning the water a scummy bright green. According to NASA, blooms like this did occur in the 1950's and 60's, but now phosphorus from farms, sewage, and industry have fertilized the waters.
After the 60's, increased regulations and improvements in agriculture and sewage treatment limited the phosphorus and helped to control the blooms. However, the shallower Western basin near Detroit has been more susceptible to the algae than other deeper areas.
The exact reason behind the bloom is a bit unclear, but scientists believe it could be linked to increased rainfall and, believe it or not, mussels. It seems the types of mussel, zebra and quagga that have invaded the lake feed on phytoplankton instead of algae, making it even easier for the blooms to occur, according to NASA.
While the algae doesn't directly kill fish, it's still not good. As the algae dies, it's broken down by bacteria which uses oxygen from the water. This oxygen removal creates areas where fish can't survive. In addition, if consumed, it can also create flu-like symptoms in people or even kill pets.
Former Vice President Al Gore spoke Thursday in Detroit on the matter, associating climate change with the algae problem. "We're still acting as if it's perfectly OK to use this thin-shelled atmosphere as an open sewer. It's not OK," he said. "We need to listen to the scientists. We need to use the tried and true method of using the best evidence, debating and discussing it, but not pretending that facts are not facts."
While in the past, some have criticized Gore, claiming that he's made exaggerated statements about the environment, yesterday's speech drew upon some pretty hard scientific evidence, leading many leaders at the International Joint Commission to listen a bit more intently.
This past summer, an algae bloom spread across a beach in China, dying everything in its path "a shocking bright green."
Well, that post does not confirm "slow to develop" to me! JMHO
Lots of clouds in S. Florida all, but no rain so far. We still need rain although not as dangerously dry as earlier in the summer. We are still behind on total rainfall amount, Lake Okeechobee is still to low for comfort, soooo bring us some more please 95L.
AWESOME photo!! Thanks for sharing.
mark be the centre of the image
:)
WHXX01 KWBC 151514
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1514 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20111015 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
111015 1200 111016 0000 111016 1200 111017 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 86.4W 18.5N 87.2W 18.9N 88.5W 19.1N 89.9W
BAMD 17.4N 86.4W 18.8N 87.2W 19.9N 88.3W 20.7N 89.9W
BAMM 17.4N 86.4W 18.7N 87.1W 19.4N 88.2W 19.9N 89.7W
LBAR 17.4N 86.4W 18.8N 87.2W 20.9N 88.0W 23.2N 88.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
111017 1200 111018 1200 111019 1200 111020 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 91.1W 19.7N 92.3W 18.1N 93.1W 14.9N 95.5W
BAMD 21.0N 91.4W 21.4N 93.2W 21.5N 93.4W 20.4N 90.8W
BAMM 20.0N 91.1W 20.4N 93.1W 19.7N 94.8W 17.7N 97.4W
LBAR 25.3N 88.2W 30.3N 82.7W 38.5N 67.3W 41.7N 59.2W
SHIP 53KTS 63KTS 60KTS 49KTS
DSHP 33KTS 43KTS 40KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 86.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 86.4W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 86.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Tks ;-) rains slowed to a drizzle for now but looks like a LOT more on the way over the next day or two
South FL might get our share too. I sure wish I were in that tropical setting right now, tho, rain or no rain! I do so love to visit the islands of the Carrib! Beautiful water and beaches...not mention good beer and rum!
Great image!
Thanks for showing that.
AL, 95, 2011101518, , BEST, 0, 187N, 872W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Heavy here since about noon.
An inch or so, so far.
Stopped now.
Ground is soaked from the showers this week.
First time in a LONG while.....
Coming your way?
Nice,about an inch and still coming down.Ground soaked with heavy rain that cant be good...
Looks like a repeat of last years La nina rain and floods.
Heavy rain and wind heading his way.
2nd time that racist mistake or error is posted here....
At the top of the "Reader Comments" section, there are links to reverse the sort order; you may have hit it by mistake.
Thank you so very much. Oh my gosh I thought I was looking my mind. :)
how did this get fixed last time it happened???
You must of change the "Sort" option. Its right next to "filter"
Yeah it's been like that for a couple days couldn't figure out what happened. I'd get on the blog and the same post would be at the end of the page for hours. Was thinking it was really dead in here lol.
Its working fine.
I don't see a problem with that post...Are you using Internet Explorer?
Dang, they reset our rainfall totals. For some reason NWS Key West only resets every couple of weeks. I wish they would have waited for this storm to pass.
How are you holding up?
Looks like it'll be going downhill soon here. Lower Keys.
about 1.6 inches and starting to rain again.round 2 has begun...flash floods in Tunapuna
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