Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.
The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.
Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.
Jeff Masters
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... and with La Nina back in full force, it's gonna be a rainy end to the year.
In the tropics heavy down pours is rain, torrential rain is heavy rain, and deluge is a torrential downpour.
Spooky? What makes you say that?
Spooky?
What gives you that idea?
Here at my place in Central Florida, we have had massive quantities of rain since late June, over 50 inches.
We have had many big rain events during this period, but we had one where 5.93 inches fell here in one hour, and 9.2 for the whole day. We have many other days with similar extreme down pours here, its just doesn't normally rain that hard for that long to accumulate that much in an hour.
Extreme rainfall like that normally lasts for 10 minutes, with just heavy down pours after.
Interesting...
pottery had one 5inch event a couple months ago
this is largest single rainfall event since last years 9 inches in about 8 hours in May.
Rain light at the moment but im up to over 7 inches in 2 3/4 hours now.
its almost a sure thing.
Anyway, back for a second... seems a lot of you are getting some really good rain.
Jed, LOL last year you were so sad because you were not getting those daily Florida rains you love so much.
Glad to see this year you are.. Your area has looked good on the drought map and moisture map all year!
Just crossed 5" since noon.
I am in Central Trinidad, and the heaviest stuff is falling just North of me on DDR.
Expect to hear of flooding in the Valley's of the Northern Range from this.
Came out of nowhere, and is still falling hard.....
Pinellas County, I don't point out my exact location on line for safety reasons :)
Heavy here again, too!
Just to put that into perspective, you got 13 FEET of rain....
Sounds better that way!
Heavy stuff, man.
Yeah, we got absolutely swamped this summer, probably wettest rain season at my place in 3 or 4 years! Last year we were the opposite we only had 39 inches the whole year, we are sitting soggy at over 68 for the year, and still time to make that total hit 70. The year "normal" is about 53 around this area.
I definitely got what I wanted and then some, thankfully we had very little severe weather though. Lots of strong storm events with gusty 40 to 50 mph and lots of lightning type of storms, but I think we only experienced a a few severe cells. Which is good, nothing really destructive, just good old exciting storms and lots of beneficial rain.
We didn't get nearly as much out of the recent rain event though, we had only 1.14 out of it, but that was expected, and forecasted very well. The East Coast needed it way more then us though, so it all worked out.
lol dont even know what to say about that
That's very impressive!
Yeah, one of the craziest rain events Ive seen ever living here was several years back in February, which isn't the driest time of year but its not the typically super wet either, we got 12 inches in 4 hours, and one place to my south in Pinellas Park got 15 in 3.5 hours, it was just absolutely whiteout, and I'm talking without wind, continuously for that 3 to 4 hour period. I'm not sure if anyone remembers this but it was crazy to say the last. Lighting knocked some transmission lines down causing a smoldering fire close to me that was kept pretty small thanks to the extreme rain.
Yes, it has been excessively rainy in this area during the past several months.
I live in Western Pasco county, just to the north of Pinellas, and it has been just as you have described.
But as usual, the "official" reporting station at Tampa International Airport is either the driest or one of the driest locations around. I swear that spot where the rain gauge is located for the NWS station at TIA must be in a rain shadow of some sort. It almost always has the lowest measured totals for rainfall during widespread area rain events. Only occasionally when a localized thunderstorm happens to take place right there at the airport do they measure more than the average rainfall total at the airport.
Glad this summer's rain storms were good for your area. Your area had a lot of droughts over the past 5 yrs so all the rain was really needed.
Are you freaking serious? I guess that's why they call it the tropics....
Yes it does!
Now up to 8 inches,moderate rain falling.
Yeah definitely, I got sick of seeing below normal rain, I thought this year was going to be more of the same, but we had been pounded here. The good news is even now heading into a very dry period historically, Oct-Nov, we are seeing wet periods despite the rain season being over, which is very good for the remaining areas of drought. The East Coast pretty much put an end to its drought.
The way those wind barbs are pointing at... Looks suspicious. And why the hurricane simbol? XD
Ive noticed that too about Tampa International Airport. I think it is in a locally drier area. Because I got around to this map from NOAA, I can't remember where I found it, but it estimates my yearly rain average is 53 inches, but Tampa International is something like only 42. Actually, many of Floridas rain gauges are placed in locally drier areas it seems. I think many years ago people did a study to see where locally drier spots are and placed them there to make Florida seem more attractive for chamber of commerce. Of course, its not like 42 inches is dry by any means. But some locations in Florida consistently get a lot more than that. I usually get above 50 inches every year, accept last year which was very dry for me.
I'm just making up an educated guess if you want to call it that, some sort of explanation, I could easily be completely wrong though, chances are its just by chance.
Lol yes,last year probably had about 10 such events,i got 37 inches in August alone last year thanks to la nina.
Thats some craziness like whats going on here,most places in the North in Trinidad are flooded out right now.
That is absurd! I think we had 30 inches in August a while back here, but that was a record, I haven't seen anything like it since, I did hit over 17 last month, 21 in August, and 14 in July.
But 37? That's crazy!
Yeah almost the entire northeast has been practically slaughtered by heavy rain!
Be glad you live on an island! I live pretty close to the coast, so rainfall flooding is limited to short term street Flooding and overflowing drain ditches which lowers only several hours after the rain causes it to drain into the ocean.
I can't imagine what that type of rain would do in a land locked area without good water absorbent soil.
I remember being in Michigan and watching flash flooding occurring from what was just an ordinary heavy storm in Florida, it seemed strange to me but they called it "a serious torrential rain event". Which for them it was, the flooding obviously showed it was. But it shows you rainfall flooding is more than just about man-made drainage. Tropical soils can typically absorb way more rainfall then temperate soils. which is why heavy rain from tropical moisture can be very destructive in parts of the northern U.S. when higher moisture is pulled north during the warmer months.
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