Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.
Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.
The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.
Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No problem.
Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)
?
Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.
GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.
Im not good with animated maps but I think you might be right. I don't have those low vorticity maps, but it looks like a new low is forming to the east of where it was.
We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.
Storm moves up into the Gulf and then moves across Florida.
Beachman42
The GFS had 93L heading up to SC.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?
That was a disappointment. We need the rain. Hope it's not too bad.
only thing that required an 11:00 update is Irwin
Expect the tropical cyclone probabity to make another jump at the 2:00 PM update.
hmm...Invest 95L
hmm...
hmm...Central Atlantic Invest
Anybody think the tropics aren't active, say I :-P...also just as I thought the blog grew exponentially from yesterday :)
I GOTTA KNOW,AM I ON THAT LIST?
I don't know how to post a loop but speed up the shortwave loop and looks like a coc around 20N and 85W.
Viewing: 701 - 737
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