Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.
97L
A broad region of low pressure near 11°N, 55°W, about 300 hundred miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean on Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression then, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TD #18:
SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 15 14 19 16 20 20 26 24 27 30
SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6
700-500 MB RH 70 68 62 63 59 53 54 56 56 59 55 53 57
HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 30 88 116 119 121 113 86 63 51 31
I think a lot of this analyzed wrong though, like the shear...Its not under 15 knots right now.
Sorry have been out of the loop for a few days.
?
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUAN BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
It would be difficult with all of the dry air to the northwest, but if it remains over water for the next 5 days, it is possible. This is also a smaller system that could rapidly feedback at some point, unlike larger systems which can be more severely inhibited by dry air.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUAN BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
What do you mean 'move toward the Pacific'?
Levi, do you agree with the track?
Yeah, all depending on how strong it gets.. The stronger it gets, the more likely north it goes.
The high will definitely drive it more west than north as indicated by the HNC track. The question is how far west does it go. We may not know that for several days.
97L might actually have a better spin than TD18
TD 18 is N of the nhc forcast track i think we could see a big change is the track at 11pm
Absolutely correct....but, a cold front will be coming toward the GOM about Friday it appears.
Not really many models expect TD18 to do much....except dump a lot of rain where it is currently located.....
No time soon. The forecast track doesn't come close to the Caymans. I think you might have a better chance of feeling the effects if/when it takes a hard right in about 5 days.
AL182011 - Tropical Depression INVEST
Because it's October?
lol.
Remove that feeling..not even close.
Meanwhile, at ATCF... Rina, no?
AL, 18, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 60, 1010, 225, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,
Rina?
Why is every storm in this area of the Caribbean compared to Wilma?
Exactly what i said......Tomorrow sometime the high pressure will build over head a move it West maybe even WSW toward the Pacific...Just what i see....Didn't say it would move into the Pacific but will likely die over land....
TD 18 is in the Box... the question is it Taco Bell... or Florida Orange Juice?
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Wilma did form in this area and it is October.
RINA!
...because Rina wants to give you that feeling.
All depends on timing, I guess.
a lot of wishcaster Bro.....
I seriously, highly doubt that.
By the way...
Enter, Tropical Storm Rina!
LOL.
Whats your prediction?
I think it may hit somewhere in the gulf as a hurricane or hit Belize as a strong tropical storm
All computer models? Who is "all"?
I think it may have to shift a bit north and east with time, but some of that will depend on how strong TD 18 tries to get right off the bat. We will have to see if it falls apart tonight or tries to feedback.
If Florida gets impacted by it I would think only extreme South Florida. Looks like the front is pretty strong and will shove Rina NE or ENE.
And so did every such October storm before her.
Although Wilma was disastrous, she was a beautiful lady. Don't be jealous mister. :)
LOL Wundermap!
Levi if it does not get much stronger soon it goes West maybe even WSW late tomorrow. It it grows some tonite then a more northerly pull it will go before moving West.
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