Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 11°N, 55°W, about 300 hundred miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean on Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression then, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That would be in the NE Quadrant right?



maybe nw
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its very dry to the northwest of 96L...but I wonder if that convection associated with 96L will fight off the dry air...
Probably. It will still be interesting tom see what happens in a few days...
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Time: 19:44:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0167N 82.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.0 mb (~ 29.18 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 160 meters (~ 525 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 352° at 22 knots (From the N at ~ 25.3 mph)
Air Temp: 22.9°C (~ 73.2°F)
Dew Pt: 22.4°C (~ 72.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Still Increasing.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That would be in the NE Quadrant right?
I don't know but looking at the co-ordinates for that looks like NW.
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96L looks much better and its starting to ventilate also!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
19:37:00Z 16.150N 82.050W 987.8 mb
(~ 29.17 inHg) 156 meters
(~ 512 feet) 1005.9 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) - From 13° at 9 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 10.3 mph) 21.2°C*
(~ 70.2°F*) -* 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 377.8%
That would be in the NE Quadrant right?
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Time: 19:43:30Z
Coordinates: 16.0333N 82.3833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.7 mb (~ 29.17 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 163 meters (~ 535 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.3 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 351° at 21 knots (From the N at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 22.6°C (~ 72.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Increasing wind speed.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
19:37:00Z 16.150N 82.050W 987.8 mb
(~ 29.17 inHg) 156 meters
(~ 512 feet) 1005.9 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) - From 13° at 9 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 10.3 mph) 21.2°C*
(~ 70.2°F*) -* 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 377.8%
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:33:30Z
Coordinates: 16.15N 81.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.7 mb (~ 29.17 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 156 meters (~ 512 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.3 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 85° at 16 knots (From the E at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

pressure is low in comparison to winds, I suspect that will change soon though!
19:37:00Z 16.150N 82.050W 987.8 mb
(~ 29.17 inHg) 156 meters
(~ 512 feet) 1005.9 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) - From 13° at 9 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 10.3 mph) 21.2°C*
(~ 70.2°F*) -* 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 377.8%
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Quoting hydrus:
96L does not look to well organized on satellite..


Its very dry to the northwest of 96L...but I wonder if that convection associated with 96L will fight off the dry air...
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96L does not look to well organized on satellite..
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Time: 19:33:30Z
Coordinates: 16.15N 81.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.7 mb (~ 29.17 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 156 meters (~ 512 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.3 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 85° at 16 knots (From the E at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

pressure is low in comparison to winds, I suspect that will change soon though!
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207 HuracanKY "If the HH can locate a closed low, whether poorly defined or well defined, they will make this a TD or TS"

A closed low isn't sufficient to meet the criteria for a TropicalCyclone -- eg 96L's had one for quite a while now -- there also needs to be persistent well-defined circulation within that closed low.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right here.

What the heck is that in your avatar? Some sort of anime princess?
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate tenth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 19:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.1N 81.5W
Location: 222 miles (357 km) to the S (182°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 210 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 21 knots (From the SE at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 26°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 15 knots (From the ESE at ~ 17.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 19 knots (~ 21.9mph)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon heading N, looks like they're looking for TD force winds first. They'll drop down south soon to scoop out the COC.


Hopefully the do go back South. So far they haven't gone south of the center.
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Time: 19:09:00Z
Coordinates: 15.3N 81.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.0 mb (~ 29.18 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 172 meters (~ 564 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 248° at 7 knots (From the WSW at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C (~ 75.2°F)
Dew Pt: 22.6°C (~ 72.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots* (~ 16.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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They have a closed circulation according to the data I've seen so far, just very light winds so far, I suspect when they turn around and head SW near the coast the winds will be much stronger, just the opposite of what you usually see with cyclone, but it happens!
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After not being updated since 00z ,ATCF updates at 18z 97L.

AL, 97, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 117N, 563W, 25, 1006
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Recon heading N, looks like they're looking for TD force winds first. They'll drop down south soon to scoop out the COC.
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Very light winds so far unless all the stronger winds are close to land on the west side.
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Now I don't see the SW winds. I wonder what happened?
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Time: 19:24:00Z
Coordinates: 15.95N 81.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.4 mb (~ 29.19 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 150 meters (~ 492 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 135° at 18 knots (From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Time: 19:24:00Z
Coordinates: 15.95N 81.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.4 mb (~ 29.19 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 150 meters (~ 492 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 135° at 18 knots (From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph)
Air Temp: 25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

New Info.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Recon just found SSW winds at 14 knots, estimated surface winds of 21 mph.
We should have a T.D.

acually I think they passed and missed the center and passed to the S and W of it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
159 Sfloridacat5 "Remember a Tropical Depression doesn't need to 'look good'.
It just needs a well defined closed circulation.
"

'Plus'ed cuz your point needed to be injected into the conversation...
...but make that 'persistent well-defined circulation'.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Recon just found SSW winds at 14 knots, estimated surface winds of 21 mph.
We should have a T.D.
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port charlotte:im only giving my opinion wing chang,i do however think your cool
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate tenth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 19:07Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.3N 81.9W
Location: 279 miles (449 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 210 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 300° at 10 knots (From the WNW at ~ 11.5 mph)

probably the center or very near
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Quoting stillwaiting:
i guess some alzo forgot tc's need waters of 80* to sustain,local tpa water temps are inthe mid 70's,and sheer will do the rest,crow buffet if 96l causes any direct impacts on fl,not going to happen,it'll make landfall on the mid yucatan and then get scooped up to the ene as a reminant low imo



I don't think anyone thinks we're going to have a major system affecting Fl.
But if there were a large system such as Wilma in the Western Caribbean it would easily reach the S.W. Fl coast including Tampa as a strong hurricane.

When Wilma hit S.W. Florida water temps were in the mid 70s down in the Fort Myers/Naple area. My guess would be low 70s around Tampa.

Currently water temps are still 80+ in the Southern GOM off shore.

The biggest issue would be wind shear, but a large powerful system would hold itself together long enough to hit the West Coast of FL.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where'd everybody go?
Yo.
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Quoting MrstormX:
It seems to me that something is really hindering the adiabatic processes of 96L, dry air perhaps?
,hmmm ya think,pretty decent drier northerly flow heading into its nw side
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You and robert88 seem to know it all...start your own blog and get lost...back in school on Monday right


Quoting stillwaiting:
i guess some alzo forgot tc's need waters of 80* to sustain,local tpa water temps are inthe mid 70's,and sheer will do the rest,crow buffet if 96l causes any direct impacts on fl,not going to happen,it'll make landfall on the mid yucatan and then get scooped up to the ene as a reminant low imo
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where'd everybody go?
Right here.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
i guess some alzo forgot tc's need waters of 80* to sustain,local tpa water temps are inthe mid 70's,and sheer will do the rest,crow buffet if 96l causes any direct impacts on fl,not going to happen,it'll make landfall on the mid yucatan and then get scooped up to the ene as a reminant low imo




very unlikey for what you say to happen
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i guess some alzo forgot tc's need waters of 80* to sustain,local tpa water temps are inthe mid 70's,and sheer will do the rest,crow buffet if 96l causes any direct impacts on fl,not going to happen,it'll make landfall on the mid yucatan and then get scooped up to the ene as a reminant low imo
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Where'd everybody go?
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Some are a little feisty this afternoon.

Let's see what HH tells us.. they did just get there..
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96L is almost there.
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Quoting chrisdscane:
hh havent found td 18 yet


they just got there

be patient
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Quoting chrisdscane:
hh havent found td 18 yet

They've barely started investigating, just be patient.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


so that means thoose are wrong


No it means the hurricane hunters flagged them as suspect.
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hh havent found td 18 yet
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It seems to me that something is really hindering the adiabatic processes of 96L, dry air perhaps?
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Quoting chrisdscane:


so that means thoose are wrong

No, I meant what I said...It means they are suspect.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 18:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate tenth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 18:51Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.0N 82.5W
Location: 240 miles (386 km) to the SSW (198°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 330° at 19 knots (From the NNW at ~ 21.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 22°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1009 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 300° at 15 knots (From the WNW at ~ 17.2 mph)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They marked a lot suspect:

27.4 knots* (~ 31.5 mph*)

32.0 knots* (~ 36.8 mph*)

31.2 knots* (~ 35.8 mph*)

34.0 knots* (~ 39.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm*

30.0 knots* (~ 34.5 mph*)


so that means thoose are wrong
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Not much doubt it is getting better organized.

3 hours ago.




Now.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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