Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.
97L
A broad region of low pressure near 11°N, 55°W, about 300 hundred miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean on Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression then, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I say if any relocation it could be ESE of the deepest convection but anyway I am sticking with what I said untill I search and find provin otherwise
Maybe a bit, but it's still got a while to go.
Looks decent for a lower end TS, though.
Any Kelvin waves coming?
Not that I know of...
Why don't you email the NHC and ask them why they haven't, would be interesting to see there response.
Is there anyway of finding out?
It's up to the respective countries to issue their own warnings, the NHC just coordinates information with them.
Yeah, not sure how to read this though:
Here's the site:
Link
hey Aussie it not the NHC that makes the watches and warnings the Gov. of any country that makes them
I say if my plots are true or its very very very near to that and if the track continues N-NNW the I don't doubt that the TS Watches and Warning will be bestode apon this island today
Correct it's up to our Government to issue the warning in collaboration with the NHC, but ultimately it is our Governments decision!
Well email the local Authorities and ask why not.
Thanks :-)
This is interesting...... I think, lol.
I definitely think a more Eastward track is possible. We'll just have to see what kind of influence these 2 shortwaves have...
my UPS beeped about that same time and the lights dimmed prolly a strike still have power here in spotts though
Ships has 97L up to 101kts @ 120 hrs. Seems this may be one to watch for sure.
Atlantic during this period and there is potential for major hurricane development. Due to the time of year, this would be a favorable period for genesis to
occur over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Keep an eye on this period for potentially strong hurricanes. Tropical cyclone activity is expected to be Low
with confidence of 15%. This forecast relies heavily on the evolution MJO and will be adjusted accordingly with time.
Local meteorologist said up here in Fl. we don't have anything to worry about from Rina.
Currently it does look that way, but I'd be afraid to make that statement.
November 5 18 UTC 13.7N 81.7W -- deg -- mph -- kph 30 mph 45 kph 1004 mb Tropical Depression
November 6 0 UTC 14.2N 82.0W 330 deg 5 mph 9 kph 35 mph 55 kph 1004 mb Tropical Depression
November 6 6 UTC 14.8N 82.1W 350 deg 6 mph 11 kph 40 mph 65 kph 1003 mb Tropical Storm
November 6 12 UTC 15.4N 82.0W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 45 mph 75 kph 1000 mb Tropical Storm
November 6 18 UTC 16.1N 81.9W 10 deg 8 mph 12 kph 65 mph 100 kph 994 mb Tropical Storm
November 7 0 UTC 16.8N 81.8W 10 deg 8 mph 12 kph 75 mph 120 kph 987 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 6 UTC 17.4N 81.7W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 75 mph 120 kph 985 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 12 UTC 18.0N 81.6W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 85 mph 140 kph 979 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 18 UTC
Different time of year, but the model tracks match up pretty well with Hurricane Charley.
MY S Florida mets are all stating that we have to watch these one "carefully". Unfortunately, in my experience some mets do not want to "scare" the tourists.
Good morning all. Lovely day in Port St. Lucie. Off to a job interview. Cross your fingers and please send positive thoughts my way.
Later.
AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 75, 1012, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
...while 97L maintains its status quo:
AL, 97, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 624W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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