Hurricane Rina a strong category 2
Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.
Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.
Jeff will be back tomorrow morning with an update.
Angela
Reader Comments
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250 mb. upper level winds
Hmm... those two just don't seem to fit.
LinkCIMSSSite
Offers a great menu for viewing Rina.
I won't make it to 11 to see what NHC says.
Goodnight and I hope everyone along the northern Yucatan has preparations in place.
yes..
Pretty close
We'll see strengthening tonight and tomorrow with a closed eyewall.
Yes, finally.
Just shows you where the storm has been, and how far it is from "X" city if it traveled on it's current path.
Just a bunch of geographical stats...
Recon flew through it not long ago, 17nm across, closed.
Notice vortex message.
Her hurricane force winds are in a narrow 30 mile band. It will be very difficult to find a large swath of 110+ mph winds, unless they spend hours criss crossing Rina.
They most likely leave Rina as a 105 or 110 MPH hurricane come 11 PM EDT :)
She has an eye, and a nice one, its just not visible right now because very cold cloud tops keep bursting in the eywall, obscuring the eye..I highly doubt she has peaked...probably has 5-10 kt. more to go (115-125 mph).
ok
That's why I started posting 'em in the way back when. WUbers useta spend hours bickering about whether a storm had zigged north or zagged west.
538 BDADUDE "Im still not understanding the point of these dude!"
I've given rather lengthy explanations before. Perhaps you haven't caught them. If not, click on the link.
If you have, I don't know what to say except that other people find the mappings to be useful.
There is a closed, 15 mile in diameter eye, it just isn't very visible on satellite imagery, but the wall is closed and an eye is present.
EWRC stands for an eye wall replacement cycle. So since there is an "eye wall" then and "ewrc" could occur.
It's like the XTRAP except is has more geographical information, such as distance from certain cities, how long it would take to travel there on it's current speed and heading. And where the storm has been since a certain point in time (storm history). I like seeing it, but I'm a map person so..
I'm pretty sure it's MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa. I'll double check tho..
she didnt like the bikini she had on
More to help bomb-out the Alaskan Low!!!
I mean I am no expert but at this point I don't think Rina is going to make a direct landfall. I think she will get close but I believe she may be able to stay right offshore and continue intensifying.
The NOAA aircraft fly out of MacDill AFB in Tampa and the Navy's WC-130J's fly out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Usually it's just the KC-135 air tankers or the occasional F-16, but it is an Air Force base so a C-130 isnt out of the question.
i respect ur opinion but she would have to climb northward a good amount to do that what do u think
United States Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
Well the official NHC track has her just skirting by the Yucatan peninsula and the GFS is also staying offshore. The other models take here onto land but not for long. All I know is that the beating the Yucatan will get will surely not be as bad as what they got from Wilma. So that is a good thing.
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