Hurricane Rina a strong category 2

By: Angela Fritz , 9:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

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Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.

Jeff will be back tomorrow morning with an update.

Angela

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Looks like Roatan will start having issues tonight.
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Quoting biloxibob:
Does intensification result in a more northerly tract ?


Well when the trough gets closer then her forward speed and intensity is what will greatly affect her movement. A stronger system would "feel" the trough more and be pulled northward as you we're saying, where as a weaker storm would head west or make a loop in the Caribbean as some models are predicting with Rina. But IMO she is plenty strong enough to be pulled out of the Caribbean into the GOM and into South FL. It's just a matter of timing.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Rina is getting a larger windfield... Have the models put that into perspective? She might be able to fend off some of the dry air and shear if she gets big enough. (NOT hoping, just saying)
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, storm, here is a link I thought you might like.



Link


Hey thanks, that is cool!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The thing is, local broadcast weather people are not necessarily mets--that is, meteorologists. In fact, earning the now-obsolete but still flaunted American Meteorological Society "Seal of Approval" doesn't even require one to have a degree in meteorology


Case in point, Don Noe, a local, well-respected met here in S. Florida going on about how Andrew was not a problem and would dissipate on his 5pm forecast the Friday before Andrew hit early on a Monday morning in Miami. The guy didn't read the NHC discussion at 11am, nor the 5pm. He was so far off it was unreal. He never once owned up to his mistake.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Rina also has a pretty respectable wind field:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

EDIT: Not at small as she was earlier...


She needs a ERC to really help her improve her defenses from the upcoming onslaught,expand her windfield and main core structure to give her at least a chance.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...And the eye is gone again as Rina fires very very cold cloud tops in the eyewall.
actaully a good thing for her. once she builds a new inner eyewall it could be stronger and we could have bigger eye
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
Why does the Vortex Data Message say that maximum surface winds were 118.5 mph, and they did not update? Does not make sense, seeing as how they have instrumentation flying through the storm to provide accurate intensity measurements.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Keep an eye on the sky tonight. You could get lucky and see this:


That is just awesome. Wish I was far enough North to see that.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks Angela.

Probably. Levi has touched on this topic previously.

The faster the cyclone moves, the less time it will have to deal with unfavorable upper-level winds. This would allow for a stronger cyclone to affect south Florida (if it ever does affect SFLA, of course).


I would suspect that Rina will be travelling along at a nice clip when /if she makes landfall in Florida.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting biloxibob:
Does intensification result in a more northerly tract ?

In most cases, yes it does.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
WHAT!!
8:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 17.5°N 84.5°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb




there waiting in tell 11pm too upgrade
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Not another major hurricane.....yawn............LOL

NHC is being very conservative this time around :(
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Does intensification result in a more northerly tract ?
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Keep an eye on the sky tonight. You could get lucky and see this:
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...And the eye is gone again as Rina fires very very cold cloud tops in the eyewall.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Quoting Bordonaro:
~966 MB and 103 KT winds= Rina, a new CAT 3 Hurricane?? We will ALL find out in about 20 minutes :)


Not another major hurricane.....yawn............LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...

8:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 17.5°N 84.5°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
wow that was a bad call
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
WHAT!!
8:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 17.5°N 84.5°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
NO major yet...
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Quoting brianc:
No offense...but you make out like Cantore is some kind of courtier. He's not. He doesn't even possess the political savvy to recognize that by deepening the public's understanding of an NHC "low confidence" track....that it would be good for ratings and his management. All he needs to do is try to depict and explain, not make fairly wild, IMHO, avuncular proclamations at this point. It serves no one...least of all himself.
No offense, but it seems to be the opinion of many, that it will weaken and stay well south of Florida., just saying..
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Major hurricane at 11PM:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715



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And, its gone.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
This morning I heard a national cable news channel weather guy proclaim, "Rina is not going to be a problem at all for the US."

The thing is, local broadcast weather people are not necessarily mets--that is, meteorologists. In fact, earning the now-obsolete but still flaunted American Meteorological Society "Seal of Approval" doesn't even require one to have a degree in meteorology (though applicants have to have earned at least a minimum number of meteorology-related college courses).

Saying all that to say this: while there are certainly conscientiousness and well-trained mets working local broadcast channels, there are many who aren't, so relying on them for life-or-death decision making is imprudent at best.
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a href="http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/9357?viewmod e=livevideo
Hurricane Rita: live from Cancun
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Hey skye, with that Vortex Data Message... I am seeing a 118.5 mph max wind. Major hurricane at 8pm!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That image shows a well-developed hurricane, with a very well-defined and tight core. If there was any dry air in the core, Rina wouldn't be strengthening...However, the pressure has dropped 4 mbar since the last recon was in about two hours ago.
Next pass I bet they get 959.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
No offense...but you make out like Cantore is some kind of courtier. He's not. He doesn't even possess the political savvy to recognize that by deepening the public's understanding of an NHC "low confidence" track....that it would be good for ratings and his management. All he needs to do is try to depict and explain, not make fairly wild, IMHO, avuncular proclamations at this point. It serves no one...least of all himself.
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Quoting robert88:


Not downplaying anything.

That image shows a well-developed hurricane, with a very well-defined and tight core. If there was any dry air in the core, Rina wouldn't be strengthening...However, the pressure has dropped 4 mbar since the last recon was in about two hours ago.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Quoting RickWPB:


I think I remember reading that the HWRF always over estimates strength.


Well so far they've been pretty spot on with Rina's rapid intensification. No one thought it would get past 90 MPH at first, except for the people everyone else deemed as "crazy". Lol
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting stormpetrol:


I would say Rina has grown into an average size/medium size storm now, plus it keeps growing!


Hey, storm, here is a link I thought you might like.



Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow...you really do downplay everything.



Not downplaying anything.
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Quoting WoodyFL:
The HWRF is the only models showing a stronger system impacting Florida, I believe.



I think I remember reading that the HWRF always over estimates strength.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
If you were a lot older you'd understand simply from playing with tops and a string when you were 8. A top with a smaller tip(sic) would spin up quicker.....with all else being equal, like how tight you strung the string, how fast you pulled the string, the surface, the winds(if any), etc.


You sound high strung at the moment, cosmic...
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Quoting robert88:
That microwave above clearly shows some dry air has made it in...but it's not going to do anything to her at this point in the game. She can spit that out for the time being with ease. Her collapse will come when she gets near the Yucatan and really sucks in that dry air from the GOM into her core.

Wow...you really do downplay everything.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, even though I've never understood the concept of that.
If you were a lot older you'd understand simply from playing with tops and a string when you were 8. A top with a smaller tip(sic) would spin up quicker.....with all else being equal, like how tight you strung the string, how fast you pulled the string, the surface, the winds(if any), etc.
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We've definitely got ourselves a Major Hurricane!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting brianc:


More or less my point...irresponsible. We don't know, now. I'd be loathe to predict intensity beyond tomorrow...it's at this point speculative....but Cantore said what he said with authority...then segued into BUT possibly a TS...I know the guy means well...but right now he's lamenting the fact that Rina lacks the "donut" shape on infared.


Hey - I hope he is right, but the putting in out there now and to the "masses" is not the brightest thing to do. (IMHO)

On this blog, say what you want and represent yourself as whatever. I base my decisions from a multitude of different sources. I take everything here with a grain of salt - some I trust, some I don't. Some here are very sincere and as accurate as any seasoned professional and others not so much...

No one here should take anything blogged here as their only source for making life/death decisions, which is why on this blog it is "acceptable" to say this is or is not a Florida Storm. It will dissipate or it will be a Cat 5- super Hurricane that will wipe humanity off the face of the Earth...
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Quoting robert88:
That microwave above clearly shows some dry air has made it in...but it's not going to do anything to her at this point in the game. She can spit that out for the time being with ease. Her collapse will come when she gets near the Yucatan and really sucks in that dry air from the GOM into her core.
Ahhh no what your looking at is Rina just then closing out her eye wall, not dry air.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
~966 MB and 103 KT winds= Rina, a new CAT 3 Hurricane?? We will ALL find out in about 20 minutes :)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

double post




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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Rina is going to do that turn sooner than expected! Wobbling north slowly but surely

I totaly agree with you I don't even think it will make landfall nor skirt belize not Yucatan

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Kat + Rina = Katrina
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That microwave above clearly shows some dry air has made it in...but it's not going to do anything to her at this point in the game. She can spit that out for the time being with ease. Her collapse will come when she gets near the Yucatan and really sucks in that dry air from the GOM into her core.
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314. Skyepony (Mod)
Eye has grown from 13nm to 17nm..still small.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:13Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°26'N 84°28'W (17.4333N 84.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the E (91°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,830m (9,285ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 103kts (From the ENE at ~ 118.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (342°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 22:39Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:45Z

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39102
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Conditions have to be absolutely perfect for a Category 5...Conditions are not perfect.

Minimal Category 4 peak at most.
Ok but you never know, Rina was only supposed to be a TS.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That is a Wilma type eye.


Lets just hope it is not a Wilma type interaction where it comes ashore in the Yucatan and maintains major hurricane intensity throughout the land interaction. Not thinking this will happen. But I see everyone talking about an interaction with the Yucatan... but we have to remember, the Yucatan peninsula (especially the northern part) is pretty flat, so there are no mountains to help tear her up.
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RINA Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Image/Loop


...click image for loop


ZOOM is available, click on loop to ZOOM.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I dont want to get ahead of myself but... maybe Rina will get to cat5...

Conditions have to be absolutely perfect for a Category 5...Conditions are not perfect.

Minimal Category 4 peak at most.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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