Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S.

Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 10:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2011

+29

The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the Northeast U.S. has finally come to an end this Sunday afternoon. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states. In fact, the snowfall, in most cases, has exceeded that of even the great October snow of 1804. Trees that had not yet lost their leaves suffered tremendous damage from the wet, heavy snow, and snapped branches and falling trees brought down numerous power lines, leaving at least 2.5 million people without electricity.

Figure 1. Heavy snow in Coopersburg, PA on October 29 brought down trees and blocked roads. Image credit: wunderphotographer boyrr.

The records are broken are simply unbelievable. New York City's Central Park location, with a period of record dating back to 1869, received an official 2.9" of snowfall, breaking the previous record of 0.8" set in 1925. The highest total in New York City itself was 6.0" at Fieldston in the Bronx. But that is a simply an afterthought compared to the 19.0" reported just 45 miles northwest of Manhattan at West Milford. New Jersey. Newark, New Jersey reported 5.2", by far their greatest October snowfall on record. And even that total pales in comparison to the astonishing figures measured in New Hampshire and Massachusetts where more than 30" has been reported. Perhaps most amazing of all is the 22.5" that fell at Concord, New Hampshire between 3pm Saturday and 7am Sunday. This the second greatest 24-hour total ever record on any date or month in Concord history. Virtually every site north of Maryland to Maine, with the exception of coastal areas, recorded their greatest October snowfall on record. True blizzard conditions were averted since the strongest winds were confined to coastal areas where the precipitation fell almost exclusively as rain. A wind gust of 69 mph was recorded at Nantucket, Massachusetts (where sustained winds of 53 mph also occurred) and Barnstable at 4am Sunday. The top wind gust on Long Island, New York was 58 mph at Sands Point.

Figure 2. Snow depth as of 2 am EDT Sunday October 29, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.

The highest snow totals by state, from the latest NOAA storm summary and NWS public information statements:

Massachusetts: 32" at Peru
New Hampshire: 31.4" at Jaffrey
Maine: 20.0" at Acton
New Jersey: 19.0" at West Milford
Connecticut: 18.6" at Bakersville
New York: 17.9" at Millbrook
Pennsylvania: 16.0" at Huffs Church, Hazleton, and Springtown
Vermont: 16.0" at West Halifax
West Virginia: 14.0" at Mount Storm
Maryland: 11.5" at Sabillasville
Rhode Island: 6.6" at West Glocester

New England's Snow Hurricane of October 9, 1804
In a post I wrote last November on record early snowstorms, I penned this account of the Great October Snow Hurricane of 1804:

Perhaps the most extraordinary early-season snowstorm in New England history occurred on Oct. 9, 1804 when a hurricane roared ashore on Long Island, New York and then encountered an arctic air mass over southeastern Canada. The winds of the hurricane caused extensive structural damage from New York to Massachusetts (where the steeple of North Church in Boston was blown down). The rain turned to snow as far south as the Connecticut River Valley in Connecticut, where low elevation towns from here to the Canadian border received 4-6" of snow, and the higher terrain of Vermont up to three feet of accumulation. In Vermont, drifts buried fences and blocked roads. The Catskills of New York reported 12-18"; the Berkshires of Massachusetts received 24-30". Even coastal New Haven reported some snow (and 3.66" of rain). Reference: "Early American Winters: 1604-1820", by David M. Ludlum, American Meteorological Society, 1966, and "Early American Hurricanes, 1492-1870", by the same author.

Given what we have just seen it is probably safe to concluded that this weekend's event was of even greater magnitude than the 1804 storm although three weeks later in the season.

Wunderground weather historian, Christopher C. Burt

New York City's 3rd wettest year on record
The 2.01 inches of precipitation that fell in New York City in Saturday's storm brought the city's year-to-date total to 65.75", which is 24.10" above normal, and makes it the third wettest year in New York City history. With two months still left in the year, New York City has a chance to beat its all-time wettest year in history, the 80.56" that fell in 1980. Records date back to 1869.

Early season snowfalls and climate change
Naturally, the occurrence of a record early-season snow storm will lead to cries of "what happened to global warming?" Global warming theory does predict that we should see a decrease in early-season and late season snow as the climate warms, since it will not be cold enough to snow. However, the climate models also predict that we may see an increase in the intensity of the strongest winter storms, like the Nor'easter that dumped the record October snows over the Northeast on Saturday, and it is important to realize that snow is not the same thing as cold. Temperatures in the Northeast U.S. were quite cold on Saturday, but no observing station there broke a record for coldest temperature for the day on October 29, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Our climate is still cold enough in October to give us the occasional early-season record snowstorm.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Snowbound!! (suzi46)

no, not Christmas! just looks like it..the first series of shots of our record setting October Nor'easter..about 16 inches of heavy, wet snow causing all kinds of headaches, and dangerous situations here in the Western foothills of Maine into NH..I went out at first light to capture some of the scenes here at the 'farm'..beautiful but waay too early for this much snow..especially since we didn't have a chance to winterize the plants/trees/shrubs or cleanup the Autumn leaves (many of which are STILL ON THE TREES)

Very Confused (stoneygirl)

This shows how very confused mother nature is right now. One half of this photo is fall and they other half is winter. Crazy isn't it?

Millbrook, New York USA (gerilou54)

Oct.30, 2011

Big Snow (luvne32)

SnowFire (luvne32)

13 in. of snow when I woke up Sun! But this was taken 2 days prior.

October Beech.. (suzi46)

looking amazing in the forest with the heavy snow coating..ALMOST makes this freak snowstorm a welcome visitor!

Farewell (luvne32)

Categories: Winter Weather

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251. HarlingenHolland 8:10 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Another system (Arabian Sea 6 nov) Member Since: October 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

252. stoormfury 10:36 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
two tropical waves out there. the one about 800 miles east of the southern islands have some spin and an abundance of moisture. could be a wet few days Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

253. HarlingenHolland 10:39 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Member Since: October 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

254. nocaneindy 11:06 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: what the heck? no its not we talk about all kinds of things snow storms hurricane GW so on and so on this blog is not mainly about the tropice sorry So right Taz! This blog transcends it's original purpose. While you may think it's a tropics blog, during those months of no Atlantic tropical activity, this blog does all you say it does. Excellent coverage of winter storms, wherever they arise. Also, great coverage of southern hemisphere tropical systems, who's season is on the verge of beginning. And of course, the great offseason barrage of G.W.. And that is where this blog actually excels! For it doesn't matter if you agree with the many sound minded folks who agree that agw is happening all around us. ( this blogs author included ), or if you are in the crowd of nay sayers, the exchange of ideas and theories in the off season in that regard are a great place for the open minded and the intrigued to find and form a opinion one way or the other. This forum acts as such a educational tool to so many in very different ways. Nope, never a off season on this well educated, well informed blog! I say, teach away, to any and all who will participate from now till June 1st, 2012! Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 514

255. nocaneindy 11:15 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting WatcherCI: Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under the heavy shear? Thanks Well fronts, ull's, the shear you mention, and weakening sst's to name a few reasons are why this wave won't develop. This is the hostile time of season, much as June is. Predominate flow has changed from East to West, back to West to East. Happens every year bout this time. That means, something trying to form by Africa will have a much more difficult time developing than say something that spins up in the location of Rina. Not to say it can't happen, just that it is very less much likely than was possible a month or two ago. Climatology dictates that q and a, and will likely reign supreme again. Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 514

256. StormTracker2K 11:33 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Euro is showing Sub Tropical Storm moving toward FL's east coast at day 10. Makes a lot of sense as other models are starting to jump on this bad wagon as well. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

257. StormTracker2K 11:34 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Kinda looks like TS Gordon set up from 1994. Which oddly enough occured in November! Hurricane season is not over yet folks. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

258. StormTracker2K 11:41 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

259. StormTracker2K 11:43 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
Euro is in with MJO for 11/10/2011. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

260. islander101010 11:52 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
cable weather keeps saying we can use the rain "dry season is coming" i believe theyve ran out of things to say looks to me its going to be plenty wet here this winter regardless its la nina or not. enough is enough ponds are completely full here in e.cen fl. Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

261. Neapolitan 1:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Magnitude 6.5 Date-Time Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 12:32:00 UTC Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 05:32:00 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 19.889N, 109.174W Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) Region REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION Distances 227 km (141 miles) NE of Socorro Island, Mexico 333 km (206 miles) SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico 419 km (260 miles) W of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico 1050 km (652 miles) W of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 21.5 km (13.4 miles); depth /- 2.8 km (1.7 miles) Parameters NST=359, Nph=359, Dmin=428.6 km, Rmss=1.01 sec, Gp=162, M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=C Source Magnitude: NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Honolulu, Hawaii Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D) Event ID usb0006hfg 000 WEPA42 PHEB 011241 TIBPAC TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 1241Z 01 NOV 2011 THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA... WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 1232Z 01 NOV 2011 COORDINATES - 20.0 NORTH 109.2 WEST DEPTH - 10 KM LOCATION - REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION MAGNITUDE - 6.5 EVALUATION NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

262. Bergeron 1:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting WatcherCI: Can someone explain, simply, why the big blob coming off africa won't develope? I see that the shear above it is high but it looks very large and low with high vorticity. Are there other factors I don't understand that would hinder developement if this crossed low under the heavy shear? Thanks Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

263. MrMarcus 1:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
This looks interesting... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/breaking-an -ipcc-backchannel-cloud-was-apparently-established -to-hide-ipcc-deliberations-from-foia/ Member Since: January 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 89

264. AussieStorm 1:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K: I have a feeling hurricane season ain't over yet based on this below. Could have another storm in the Caribbean come the second week of November. I have to agree and a projected pass of a CCKW should increase the threat of the genesis of one tropical cyclone. Confidence is low (10%) and will be adjusted with time. 11/16-11/23 Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13357

265. Neapolitan 1:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting MrMarcus: This looks interesting... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/17/breaking-an -ipcc-backchannel-cloud-was-apparently-established -to-hide-ipcc-deliberations-from-foia/ Another swing and a miss for Watts. For something more recent and far more interesting, try this: http://www.southernstudies.org/2011/10/special-in vestigation-whos-behind-the-information-attacks-on -climate-scientists.html. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

267. Minnemike 2:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting BackwoodsTN: Neapolitan, why do you even waste the time to respond to anyone else who provides informative links—links that just so happen to not coincide with your far left, Marxist political agenda and ridiculous pro-AWG bias? why not? Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1257

268. Minnemike 2:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
is climate science politics? the 'it is' camp: political and corporate figureheads. agenda -money (whether profit or economic policy) the 'it is not' camp: scientific researchers publishing research results in peer reviewed publications. agenda -science (whether showing climate change or stability) no further explanation needed. Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1257

269. Neapolitan 2:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

270. Neapolitan 2:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2011
Quoting Minnemike: is climate science politics? the 'it is' camp: political and corporate figureheads. agenda -money (whether profit or economic policy) the 'it is not' camp: scientific researchers publishing research results in peer reviewed publications. agenda -science (whether showing climate change or stability) no further explanation needed. Nailed it! Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

271. winter123 9:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
I always wondered if a hurricane could produce snow. It almost happened with wilma, but missed the connection with the Noreaster. So there's historical evidence of it. But It's so far back I question it's accuracy. It was probably just a strong winter storm. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

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