The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season: another strangely active one
Wednesday marks the final day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was another very odd year. The season featured a huge number of named storms--nineteen--tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength--the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011--seven--meaning that only 37% of this year's named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--was about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for 2011's unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE. Both 2010 and 2011 had nineteen named storms, making it the second busiest 2-year period in the Atlantic behind 2004 - 2005. Even when one considers that 2 - 4 tropical storms from both 2010 and 2011 would likely have been missed before the advent of satellites, the tropical storm activity of 2010 - 2011 is still very remarkable (in 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and the unnamed 19th tropical storm of September 1 would probably have been missed before satellite technology came along, since they were all weak, short-lived storms that did not impact land or shipping.)
FIgure 1. Tracks for the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2011.
Another below-average hurricane season for the U.S.
For the second consecutive year, despite a near-record number of named storms in the Atlantic, the U.S. had far fewer strikes by tropical storms and hurricanes than average. Favorable steering currents steered most of the storms in 2010 and 2011 past Bermuda and out to sea. During 2010, only one tropical storm hit the U.S., despite a season with the 3rd highest number of named storms--nineteen. Only two named storms hit the U.S. in 2011: Tropical Storm Lee, which hit Louisiana with 60 mph winds, and Hurricane Irene, which hit North Carolina on August 27 with 85 mph winds, and made two additional landfalls in New Jersey and New York the next day. Tropical Storm Don hit Texas on July 29 as a tropical depression and did not count as a landfalling named storm, according to post analysis by NHC. Wind shear and dry air from the Texas drought made Don rapidly weaken before landfall on Padre Island National Seashore north of Brownsville. During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. The U.S. averaged seeing six named storms per year, with four of them being hurricanes and two being intense hurricanes. Thus, the landfall of only three named storms in a two-year period is a major departure from what happened the previous fifteen years. The past six years is the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 1861 - 1868. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005. One caveat to keep in mind, though: Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav of 2008 both hit the U.S. as strong Category 2 hurricanes, and had central pressures characteristic of Category 3 hurricanes. Had these storms occurred more than 65 years ago, before the Hurricane Hunters, Ike and Gustav would likely have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall (assuming that few quality wind observations would have been available at landfall, which is usually the case.)
Figure 2. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak on August 25, 2011 during Hurricane Irene. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.
Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Irene as seen by hurricane hunter and wunderblogger LRandyB on August 24, 2011, when the hurricane was approaching the Bahama Islands.
The strongest, deadliest and longest-lived storms of 2011
The strongest hurricane of 2011 was Hurricane Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb on October 2, when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit Southeast Newfoundland as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on October 3, but caused little damage. The strongest hurricane at landfall was Hurricane Irene, whose 120-mph eyewall winds raked Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Wind gusts as high as 140 mph were reported in the Bahamas.The longest-lived storm of 2011 was Hurricane Phillipe, which lasted 15 days, from September 24 to October 8. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Irene, which caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to New England, according to re-insurance broker AON Benfield. Irene was also the deadliest storm of 2011, with 55 deaths in the Caribbean and U.S.
Figure 3. Pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal.
Pre-season hurricane forecasts did a decent job
The pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups were generally decent. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State will be releasing their end-of-season verification and summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.
Figure 4. Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.
Portlight disaster relief efforts for 2011
My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, has posted a summary of their efforts during the hurricane season of 2011. Portlight mobilized in the wake of Hurricane Irene to help out in North Carolina, Delaware, and Maryland on cleanup efforts, food, and supply distribution. Portlight also provided financial assistance to survivors, including a commercial fisherwoman and single mother of two who lost her boat and home in the storm, after having been diagnosed with breast cancer two days before Irene struck. See the portlight blog for the full story; donations are always welcome. Wunderground is proud to be a major sponsor of Portlight again this year.
Next post
On Wednesday, I plan to look at 2011's worst hurricane--Hurricane Irene--and the lesson it should have given us regarding the hurricane vulnerability of New York City.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 17.5N 63.5E, or 1000 km west-southwest of Mumbai (India), 600 km southeast of Masirah (Oman) and 950 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).
The system is likely to move northwestwards and maintain the same intensity for some time.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111301221
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
We have 90L!!!! Yay! The season goes on!
My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs.
You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.
Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.
My two cents.
There has always been and always be a level of criticism leveled at those in charge,(Ecclesiastes 7:21(This is a reference from the Bible for you younger folk) addresses this 3K years ago) some warranted some not. hanging out with co-workers inevitable leads to making fun of the boss' latest memo, hair cut, etc.. When it comes to actionable dialogue it gets very subjective. Where is the line drawn between having fun or letting of steam, and intentional slander meant to cause harm to the company? I for one have always placed a high value on maintaining open communication with supervisors as well as subordinates. If someone is truly unhappy in their work they need to find a different position or employer for their sake as well as their employer's.
Not bad, lol
Also Leviticus 19:18 the Lord says to love your neighbor as yourself, if i may throw that in:D
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;)
I suppose those companies with long histories of mistreating workers--and they are legion--would be very sensitive to criticism, and would thus be far more likely to spend piles of cash not improving working conditions, but rather trolling private communications to be sure no one has a bad word to say about them, and pouncing with fury on those who do.
Those companies that treat their workers with respect, on the other hand, have no need to resort to such low-handed tricks; they know that of all the best ways to enhance worker productivity, Big Brother-ish stalking isn't one of them. And if someone does complain, they listen to see whether there's any merit to that complaint, and to see how they can fix it. What they don't do is break out the whip and make an example out of the complainant as a means of silencing criticism from any others who'd dare speak up.
Just my two cents, as well.
inconceivable!
Neopolitan replied
"My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs."
Fair enough, I agree a certain level of trust is needed. So there would be no chance of you working for me? Even if I went on to explain that my view of what is disproportionate would, in absense of particularly high risks or noticing warning signals basically be nothing more than an occasional web search on the company name that I would do from time to time anyway. If there was reason for me to suspect something was wrong then could I honestly claim I wouldn't in any circumstance decide I might need further research like more web searches and asking some questions?
Maybe that wasn't the impression I gave by my disproportionate to risk phase, but I didn't feel it worth detailing such a subjective opinion of what I meant by disproportionate earlier. FWIW I don't feel I am backtracking here, just explaining what I meant. In retrospect, I probably should have ruled out anything illegal ealier.
Again, yes to dismiss someone for badmouthing their company in an open forum.....IS GROUNDS FOR TERMINATION.....WOW...the way the Liberal Left think.
Should a company's reputation be on sound footing then a few Facebook comments would be meaningless, by anyone. Should the company suffer from poor public respect, due to the company's business practices, then everyone will be saying bad things about the company. Either way, a public criticism of a company will be received, by the public, based upon the company's public reputation and not by what anyone else says about them. .... Since "companies are people too", then perhaps they would benefit by being a little less thin skinned? Else, what are they hiding?
Just my 2 cents and I bump the ante 1 cent. ;-)
Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.
I disagree, with respect as to which company (Wal-Mart) this conversation was started over. Did this person say anything that is not already common knowledge among all of us? I would have to say, no. So how could this person's comments be deemed as destructive towards the company in question? .... "Loyalty" will always come with some degree of risk, for all parties involved.
There is underwater volcanoes/vents in the area as the other area in Central Atl. There is that underwater exploding one off Africa. I wunder if their resolution got better or if the over all movement of water is being that much more disturbed by the erupting volcano.
I can't believe ya'll are still arguing about working for Walmart..
Some seem to have forgotten we are talking about Walmart..or doesn't know anyone that has had the misfortune of working there. It's an evil corporation that squeezes dimes from the product manufacturers, shippers, employees & customers...not some mom & pop being unfairly slammed. They have a reputation for a reason. Yeah they can fire him at anytime..
On the other hand we have our wunderblogger..we've come to know over the years. You are not your Dad. You don't have the responsibilities of life yet that would force you to swallow it... Run boy. Even if you end up unemployed a bit..it might be the lesson that causes you to make the life you want, cause a corporation isn't likely just to hand that to you.
So your gonna allow a company you run, to allow your employees to come on a open forum and tell the world what a horrible place it is to work for......LOL...OK! Good LUCK!
It occurs to me that by simply changing just a few words, that could read like a passage right out of the DPRK playbook:
"...to allow a citizen to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by a government to have a citizen bash its government in open forum. Any nation that would allow such practice would not ever be a nation for long..."
"Shoot the messenger" is always the practice of last resort for despots, whether they govern a nation or a business.
I kinda thought it might have been from all the UnderWater Volcanic activity there. History also shows some very unexpected Rogue Waves that also occur in that area.
OMG......ROFLMAO
You do realize that we are talking about Wal-Mart, do you not?
Should my company be on a sound public footing, then no, I would not fear any truthful comments an employee would say about the company. As long as this employee satisfied the responsibilities of their job then this is what I would require of them. Would I be looking to advance then within the company. No, they would have burned that bridge. Realistically, they will eliminate themselves anyway and usually in short order.
This really makes NO Difference What company.
Good luck with the Christmas decorations. May your weather be ideally suited for it.
I totally agree.
He'll look around the room
He wont tell you his plan
He's got a rolled cigarette
Hanging out his mouth
He's a cowboy kid
Great song, sound to it
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