Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
The deadliest storm of 2011 is Tropical Storm Washi, which is now being blamed for 957 deaths in the Philippines. Washi's heavy rains triggered devastating flash flooding on the island of Mindanao last Friday. However, the deadliest weather disaster of 2011 is a quiet one that has gotten few headlines--the East African drought in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia, the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. However, conditions are improving. Food aid has lifted three of six provinces in Somalia out of famine. The "short rains" of the October - November rainy season were plentiful this year--too much so, since heavy rains killed 15 people in Kenya and left 80,000 homeless in early December. The flooding was worsened by the preceding drought, which killed much of the vegetation that ordinarily would have stabilized the soil and absorbed rainwater before it could run off and create destructive floods. The rains have allowed a good harvest to be planted this fall, and with continued food aid, the Somalia famine should ease by spring 2012. ReliefWeb reports that in the three Somalian provinces still experiencing famine, nearly 250,000 people face imminent starvation, though.
Figure 1. The impacts of the Horn of Africa drought on cattle in Somalia in 2006. Image credit: USGS
Meteorology of the East Africa drought
East Africa has two rainy seasons--a main "long rains" of March - June, and the "short rains" of October - November. The "short rains" failed in 2010, due to a sea surface temperature pattern featuring cooler than average waters in the western Indian Ocean, and warmer than average waters in the Eastern Indian Ocean (a negative "Indian Ocean Dipole.") When the main "long rains" in spring 2011 also failed, it brought one of the worst droughts in recorded history. The 2010 - 2011 drought was rated along with the droughts of 1983 - 1984 and 1999 - 2000 as one of the three most significant droughts of the past 60 years. It was the driest 12-month period on record at some locations in East Africa.
Figure 2. The "long rains" of March - May 2011 failed over much of East Africa, leading to drought and famine (left image.) However, the "short rains" of October - December have been up to five times higher than normal, easing the East Africa drought. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The uncertain future of drought in East Africa
The climate of East Africa during the main March - June rainy season has steadily dried over the past 30 years. Since 2004, six of the past eight years have seen unusually deficient spring "long rains." This drying of the East African climate has come as the waters of the Indian Ocean have warmed significantly. A 2011 study by A. Park Williams and Chris Funk of the University of California, Santa Barbara, blames the drought in East Africa on the heating up of the Indian Ocean, which has altered the atmospheric circulation over East Africa to bring more sinking air and less moisture. The atmospheric circulation over East Africa is part of Earth's largest atmospheric circulation feature--the Walker circulation. The Walker circulation features rising air over the warmest waters of the Pacific Ocean, and compensating sinking air over over eastern tropical Africa and the eastern tropical Pacific. The Walker circulation also helps drive the El Niño/La Niña phenomena in the Eastern Pacific. Williams and Funk show that the increase in Indian Ocean temperatures in recent decades has made the Walker circulation extend farther west, resulting in more sinking air over East Africa and thus less rain. Since the increase in Indian Ocean temperature driving this change in the atmospheric circulation shows strong linkages with human-caused global warming, they conclude: "anthropogenic [human-caused] warming appears to have already significantly altered the Earth's largest circulation feature and impacted its most food insecure inhabitants." They predict that East Africa will continue to dry as global warming increases the ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, impacting the Walker circulation. However, eighteen of the 21 models used in the 2007 IPCC report on climate change predict more rainfall over East Africa by the end of this century. These models predict that the Walker circulation will weaken, shifting towards a more "El Niño-like" state, resulting in less sinking air (and thus more rain) over East Africa. Since there is as yet no evidence of this happening, and East African climate has gotten drier in recent years, this may be a case where the large majority of the climate models are wrong. While the models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report do a reasonable job simulating the the current climate over most of the world, they do a poor job of simulating Africa's current climate. The models put too much precipitation in southern Africa, and displace the band of heavy thunderstorms called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) too far south. The 2007 IPCC report concludes, "the absence of realistic variability in the Sahel in most 20th-century simulations casts some doubt on the reliability of models". In other words, since these models do a poor job simulating the current climate of the Sahel region of Africa, we shouldn't trust their predictions for the future climate of Africa.
Figure 3. Farmers in the Horn of Africa tend their emerging crops. Image credit: USGS.
Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
References
Behera, Swadhin K., Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, Pascale Delecluse, Silvio Gualdi, Antonio Navarra, Toshio Yamagata, 2005: Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study. J. Climate, 18, 4514-4530. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1
Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.
Sheffield, J., K. M. Andreadis, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009, "Global and continental drought in the second half of the 20th century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events", J. Climate 22, pp 1962-1981.
Williams, A.P., and C. Funk, 2011, A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Clim Dyn (2011) 37:2417-2435 DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y
Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster
Wunderground releases its free iPhone and Android apps
Wunderground is proud to announce that our free Weather Underground iPhone app is now live in the iTunes store. The free Android version was released on Android Market last night. I've been having a lot of fun with the new apps; they're a great way to get weather info on the go.
I'll have a new post on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
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The Birthday of the Unconquered Sun - is the celebration of the day when the nights begin to get shorter originating from various Roman sun-based cults, including possibly the Mithraic Mysteries. The Winter solstice is on 21 December, but the days don't start getting noticeably longer till about the 25th.
Cuz they are owned by NBC now
How's the rain totals holding up over there, no more drought right?
There was an article a few years back that explained how the growth of suburbs was helping to make weather more extreme in metropolitan areas (due to the fact that hot dry and cool wet areas exist in suburbs due to paving and vegetation compared to more paving in cities and more vegetation in rural areas) and uses the 2008 Atlanta tornado and a severe flooding episode in Mumbai show how microclimatic effects of cities can have devastating impact.
Link
Also I can't remember where I saw it, but there was an article also pointing out that smog over the Persian Gulf is making cyclones there worse. Fascinating stuff.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
Tropical Low 04U
11:00 PM CST December 21 2011
===================================
At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (1001 hPa) located at 9.6S 132.3E or 175 km north of Croker Island and 350 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 1 knot.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.0S 132.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 10.1S 133.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 10.6S 132.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
Additional Information
======================
Persistence used as key determinant for current position - rotation evident in IR further to the west appears to be associated remnant mid level cloud from earlier convection. Recent storm activity hints at consolidation near previous position.
Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level easterly burst is expected to produce mostly favorable conditions suited for rapid development of a small system. Unidirectional nature of upper flow may be a limiting factor for a period until the trough relaxes sufficiently to allow the upper high to consolidate.
Widely varying model guidance, with little intra run or intra model consistency, suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. Longer term motion could be ESE driven by capture of the mid to upper level trough, or by subsequent post trough ridging, forcing a WSW track.
The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favored at present, though warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
11:00 PM EST December 21 2011
===================================
At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low 02U (998 hPa) located at 17.1S 157.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 11 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.3S 157.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.4S 157.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.4S 159.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
======================
Dvorak analysis FT 2.5 based on MET and PAT.
Persistent convection this afternoon has increased over the last few hours, probably coincident with a decrease in shear from CIMSS to between 10 and 20 knots. 0806UTC TMI 37GHz image shows reasonable banding and organisation in the low levels. Good outflow to the southeast with northwest shear still over the system. Models hinting at similar shear for the next 36-48 hours. Slow development is forecast over this period and the system is considered likely to become a tropical cyclone on Thursday morning.
An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder tropical development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Most Canadians will not wake up to a white Christmas on December 25 for the first time since Canada's weather office began recording snowfalls in 1955, the government agency said Wednesday.
With just days before the Christian holiday, Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips told AFP he has never seen so little snowpack in Canada's cities. And the forecast for the coming days is sunny and very mild.
"A white Christmas is usually a sure thing in Canada, but not this year," Phillips said. "We are usually the snowiest country in the world," he said. "But this year, like no other since we've been monitoring in 56 years, there will be many Canadians just dreaming of a white Christmas and not getting one."
For a city to qualify as having a white Christmas, Environment Canada must note at least two centimeters (0.79 inches) of snow on the ground at 7 am on December 25.
This month has been on average six to seven degrees (Celsius) warmer than normal and most snow that has fallen has melted soon after hitting the ground. Gander, Newfoundland -- usually "the snowiest place in Canada" -- only has a trace of snow on the ground today, Phillips noted. Winnipeg, Manitoba -- once ranked the coldest metropolis on Earth -- usually has a 98 percent chance of snow at Christmas. But temperatures in the west of the country are expected to hover just above freezing in the coming days.
Other cities in the east like Saint John's, Newfoundland have a few centimeters of snow on the ground but rain is forecast.
Phillips said Canadian winters are generally becoming milder, and starting later, and so the idea of a white Christmas may be something of the past. He pointed to a combination of climate change and an "urban heat island effect" created by Canada's growing cities. High energy use generates heat that is retained by materials in urban developments, resulting in areas that are consistently hotter than surrounding rural areas.
Source
I wouldn't worry; I'm sure it's just coincidence. ;-)
Hansen is hardly the "typical" scientist. He has worked in his field for decades and is among the top 1% of researchers.
Becoming a scientist and expecting to get 7 figure income is sort of like becoming an actor and expecting a 7 figure income. Yeah, it can happen but it's very unlikely. For every person like Hansen, there's thousands that aren't. For example, the average salary for an ESTABLISHED scientist (5 years after graduation) is $75K. The average salary for a Ph.D 20 years out is $102K. That's across all research disciplines, no just climate science.
Now that's a pretty good salary, but that certainly isn't going to make you independently wealthy. If you work hard and catch some breaks (or by rare circumstance come up with a major breakthrough) you can make more, but it's very unlikely you'll be pulling in thousands to millions of dollars from awards, speaking fees, etc. unless you're really exceptional in your field. And that's pretty much the general rule for any profession out there, though some are less competitive than science research.
By comparison, there are a number of jobs that don't require a Ph.D and pay just as well or better (business manager, software engineer, finance, etc.). So if money was their goal, they'd leave the science field and pursue something a little more lucrative.
My response to the tired old denier money conspiracy claim is that if climate scientists really wanted money, they wouldn't have become climate scientists or they would sell out. It is unlikely that any researcher will get rich just by being a scientist.
Maybe one Canadian, the one with the halo :)
Yea.... just more propaganda
Urban Heat Island effect in Canada? Gimme what he's drinking! Canada has almost 10 million square kilometers of land area.. and a population of +/- 34 million folks which is about the same as the State of California... I could see the upstream urban heat effect from China maybe.. or maybe Levi's office in AK.. but the cities in Canada surrounded by all those millions of sq km of undeveloped land? NEXT! (IMHO)
Correct. But smooooooth all that out, and you still have snow across the country
True. But then again, no one is disputing that, least of all the author of the article--so talk of "propaganda" and "I'll have what he's drinking" are sort of misplaced. No?
The article is making it sound like it's so warm in Canada there is no snow and that will be the way of the future. Which is what the article is trying to get the public to believe.
This has been a very unusual December for sure.
found this map of snow depth for US, but you can see southern canada with it.
Link
If that dont satisfy here is one for entire Canada..or atleast the parts beneath 65.0N
Link
First day of winter and its nearing 80 degrees at 2pm.
Been watching that as well. Will be nice to get a nice long moderate rain tonight into tomorrow
What's the coolest you been so far?
Its freaking 73F here in Southeastern North Carolina. This time last year we were preparing for a snowstorm.
Grounds are nice and wet, we need some runoff now. A 4-5 inch rain event is what we need, even if it does cause road flooding.
A dentention pond near my subdivision is 4 ft or so below the original waterline, and been like that since summer, so I know we need lots of rain to get that thing up. Just shows how bad it still is.
This is the great thing about Christianity and other religions. If you don't believe what they want you to believe then bad things will happen to you, AFTER YOU DIE! How convenient is that! What a beautiful control mechanism! That argument is exactly what draws many of the nonbelievers in, this great fear of the personal unknown, which apparently we CAN'T know while we are alive.
It is too bad these same people can't see the similarity in the argument for anthropogenic global warming, and that has millions of hours of solid scientific research behind it, not just blind faith... The problem is that the majority of the results of global warming, probably won't happen in OUR lifetime, and the immediate always takes precedence, and the immediate push is consumption which ultimately IS the cause of global warming.
If 95% of the world (my guess) can believe in something they can't see, religion, than we can probably convert most of them to something they CAN see, the dangers of global warming. That is our job. GOD help our future generations if we can't succeed.
Please maintain your current weather. Heading from Panhandle to Velrico to spend Christmas with the grand kids. Next Tuesday and their after, you can get all the cool weather and rain that you can wishcast for.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA- EASTERN REGION
Issued By BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER
at: 1831 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical CYclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Date At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Logitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 NM
Movement Towards: south
Speed Of Movement: 10 knots
Maximum 10 Minute wind: 35 knots -WTF? 10 mins?
Maximum 3-second wind gust: 50 knots
Central Pressure: 996mb
But the things you can't see, is what's more real out there like a parallel universe, than something you can see that is not what it appears to be....
And millions upon millions of hours of what is not in front of them, that is being missed as well.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA (02U)
5:00 AM EST December 22 2011
===================================
At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category One (996 hPa) located at 17.5S 157.2E or 1110 km east of Townsville and 940 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.5S 156.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 21.6S 156.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.9S 159.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
======================
Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degree separation between the estimated location of the low level center and the dense overcast, giving DT of 3.0. MT and PT suggest 2.5. FT based on DT and supporting ASCAT wind observations at 1127UTC.
Increasing shear has begun to impact on Tropical Cyclone Fina due to an amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southerly direction and should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance indicates that intensification could still be possible due to extra-tropical transition that may occur into Friday. Gale force winds are possible on Friday as this transition occurs and a surge of southeasterly winds feed into the south of the
system.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
Tropical Low 04U
4:00 AM CST December 22 2011
===================================
At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low 04U (1000 hPa) located at 9.8S 132.4E or 150 km north of Croker Island and 335 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 1 knot.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S/12 HRS
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.9S 132.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 10.8S 132.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 11.0S 131.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Additional Information
======================
The monsoon trough has been active tonight with deep convection aligned with the trough across the Arafura Sea. While a broad mid level circulation can be observed in IR imagery, locating the low level system center is proving difficult. Persistence and the location of new storm activity is used as key determinant for current position.
Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level easterly burst is expected to produce mostly favorable conditions for development.
Movement of the system has been slow with westerly flow coming across the Equator and easterly flow from the continent finely balanced. Model guidance remains highly variable, with little intra run or intra model consistency, which suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. While some models are capturing the system in the mid to upper level trough and bringing it east briefly, others keep the system slow moving until the ridge over the continent pushes in and send the system west.
The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favored at present, though warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.
Dvorak classification remains at 1.5 due to constraints.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
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