U.S. weather in 2011: unprecedented rains and wet/dry extremes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on January 11, 2012

Share this Blog
26
+

Rains unprecedented in 117 years of record keeping set new yearly precipitation totals in seven states during 2011, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center revealed in its preliminary year-end report for 2011. An extraordinary twenty major U.S. cities had their wettest year on record during 2011. This smashes the previous record of ten cities with a wettest year, set in 1996, according to a comprehensive data base of 303 U.S. cities that have 90% of the U.S. population, maintained by Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Despite the remarkable number of new wettest year records set, precipitation averaged across the contiguous U.S. during 2011 was near-average, ranking as the 45th driest year in the 117-year record. This occurred because of unprecedented dry conditions across much of the South, where Texas had its driest year on record.


Figure 1. Precipitation rankings for U.S. states in 2011. Seven states had their wettest year on record, and an additional ten states had a top-ten wettest year. Texas had its driest year on record, and four other states had a top-ten driest year. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2.Wettest, driest, and warmest year records set during 2011 for major U.S. cities. No major cities had their coldest year on record during 2011. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

2011 sets a new U.S. record for combined wet and dry extremes
If you weren't washing away in a flood during 2011, you were probably baking in a drought. The fraction of the contiguous U.S. covered by extremely wet conditions (top 10% historically) was 33% during 2011, ranking as the 2nd highest such coverage in the past 100 years. At the same time, extremely dry conditions (top 10% historically) covered 25% of the nation, ranking 6th highest in the past 100 years. The combined fraction of the country experiencing either severe drought or extremely wet conditions was 58%--the highest in a century of record keeping. Climate change science predicts that if the Earth continues to warm as expected, wet areas will tend to get wetter, and dry areas will tend to get drier--so 2011's side-by-side extremes of very wet and very dry conditions should grow increasingly common in the coming decades.


Figure 3. Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during 2011, as computed using NOAA's Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of the country (58%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

23rd warmest year on record, and 2nd hottest summer for the U.S.
The year 2011 ranked as the 23rd warmest in U.S. history, with sixteen states recording a top-ten warmest year on record. Delaware had its warmest year on record, and Texas its second warmest. However, these statistics don't convey the extremity of the summer of 2011--the hottest U.S. summer in 75 years. The only hotter summer--and by only 0.1°--was the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, when poor farming practices had turned much of the Midwest into a parking lot for generating extreme heat. The June - August 2011 average temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were a remarkable 1.6°F and 1.3°F warmer than the previous hottest summer for a U.S. state--the summer of 1934 in Oklahoma. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which is sensitive to climate extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, and drought, indicated that an area nearly four times the average value was affected by extreme climate conditions during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of record, and came on the heels a spring season that was the most extreme on record. When averaged over the entire year, 2011 ranked as the 8th most extreme in U.S. history, since the fall weather was near-average for extremes. The CEI goes back to 1910.


Figure 4. Average temperatures for the summer in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F (30.4 degrees C) and 86.5 degrees F (30.3 degrees C), respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934, at 85.2 degrees F (29.6 degrees C). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a more detailed look at the U.S. extremes observed during 2011 in his latest post. His selection for the most remarkable yearly record set during 2011:

Perhaps, most astonishing is the total annual rainfall of just 1.06” at Pecos, Texas (normal annual precipitation is 11.61”). If confirmed this would be a Texas state record for least amount of precipitation ever recorded in a calendar year, the current record stands at 1.64” at Presidio in 1956.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Top ten global weather events of 2011
2011: Year of the Tornado
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 202 - 152

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

202. wxmod
Doctors,
It may not be flu you are treating. Here's a satellite of global pollution. Don't you think the people north of the white line feel worse than the people south?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:33 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Not to throw water on a flaming headline, but the the normal background of cesium-137 is practically zero. Cesium 137 is a man-made element produced as a by-product of nuclear fission. The only reason there is any cesium-137 in the natural environment is due to nuclear testing (or locally due to nuclear accidents).

The example I like to use is taking 1 gram piece of platinum and bury it in your backyard. Now unless your lucky and happen to have platinum in your backyard, burying that platinum just increased the amount in your backyard by several million percent. While true, it's a completely meaningless metric.

Sensationalizing just obfuscates the important facts.


You can call me paranoid, if you wish but, I would rather think I am being cautious. Should I have a choice, I would much rather find a gram of platinum, in my backyard, as opposed to a gram of cesium-137. But, that is just me. I consider anything found in the environment that is not normally found there is a pretty good indication that something is amiss. This is not always bad but, it certainly does not mean it is good.

Cesium
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4749
200. RitaEvac
3:31 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Buoy east of Corpus Christi in Gulf



Wind:
Max Wind Speed 50 mph
Max Gust Speed 59 mph


Link
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
199. hurricane23
3:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
06Z DGEX PSU E-Wall

This mornings 06Z DGEX has some harsh cold for he southeast late next week, with sub-30s in central Florida and low 20s for the remainder of the interior. I don't think it will get quite get cold but it could be around freezing in FL at this time.


Just one slight problem..Its the DGEX
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
198. SPLbeater
3:19 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
goooood morning!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
197. RitaEvac
3:11 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Massive 1048mb ridge coming down from Yukon with bitter cold air, but the jet stream gets shoved eastward taking the cold with it, so it doesn't come south into the plains and GOM, but if jet stream were to change, we'd be getting some bitter cold down in the south if models changed
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
196. Minnemike
3:11 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
it's bleak.. been wondering the same thing, watching each little nub of deep cold get sheared away by the jet stream config. unless something major changes in the prevailing patterns, this could be the first recorded zero-subzero year for us.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
195. Neapolitan
3:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
i can attest to the Mpls part in that! with a small dusting yesterday, we went from nothing to nothing. Strong cold winds grew ice on my beard this morning, which is fine with me as long as there is snow and some indicators it should be winter... brown and frigid is just plain nasty :(
Funny you should mention Minneapolis. From the NWS twin Cities website:

Below Zero This Winter?

With the the winter of 2011-2012 off to a very mild start, will we see any days dropping below zero across the area? The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures at reporting location across the Twin Cities forecast area failed to drop below zero. Will this winter be the first?

In the Twin CIties, the least number of below zero days was 2 back in the winter of 2001-2002. January 18th is the latest date during the winter season that the Twin Cities has experienced its first below zero temperature (back in 1889).


Looking at the extended forecast, the coldest night in the next week and a half will be tonight. Both NWS and Wunderground are calling for a low of 4; Intellicast says 8. And, of course, Minneapolis has seen subzero temps all the way through March (it's never been below zero there in April), so there's lots of time left; one good, deep lobe of Arctic air would put to rest all such talk. But it'll be interesting to see anyway...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
194. RitaEvac
3:03 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
ONE thing of interest is....the entire Gulf coast states are in a drought even if only D0, and on the Atlantic side all the way from FL to Maryland. That is unprecedented to me and only can point to one thing.....Hurricanes are going to be hitting the CONUS soon I'm afraid, and going to hit with a vengeance.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
193. RitaEvac
2:54 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
6 inches of rain in my area, and detention basins were filled to the brink, are now WAY down and only at normal levels where they ought to be. We need another major rain event like that soon, but I can only hope for that.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:53 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 06-20112012
16:00 PM RET January 12 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 06R (997 hPa) located at 25.7S 52.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
Locally gale force winds 35 knots and very rough to high seas, up to 240 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 25.1S 50.7E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 24.5S 48.6E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS: 26.5S 44.7E - 25 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
72 HRS: 27.5S 38.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
======================

Last satellite pictures and ascat data at 0449 AM UTC show a wide low pressure area within exist temporally several centers. There is an asymmetric low level circulation pattern with winds by the order of 15-20 knots in the north-western semi-circle and 25-30 knots in the southeastern semi-circle, locally 35kt, up to 250 NM from the center. Sea surface temperature are near 26°c. There is quite no deep convective activity near the center. Monsoon flow supplies the north-eastern part of the circulation. Low level convergence is good in the south-eastern sector, on the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. Vertical wind shear is weak as the system is now located under the axis of an upper level trough.

Consequently, convective activity should rebuilt temporally near the center in the next hours. System should move slowly westward over the northern edge of the strengthening subtropical high pressures. So system is forecast to move under the upper level trough, under weak vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but monsoon inflow should weaken as the system is shifting towards madagascar. Vertical wind shear is forecast to strengthen again up to 48 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are fairly good agreement for west and then west south-west track with a very slow filling up. Winds will remain strong in the southern sector of the disturbance due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high anticyclone.

CURRENT INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
191. hydrus
2:52 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Good morning..Lil sneau on the plateau....yay
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:52 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
9:00 PM WST January 12 2012
=========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.1S 118.3E or 200 km south of Port Hedland and 85 km northeast of Tom Price has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
15 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
15 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the central inland Pilbara, with gusts to 95 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas to the northeast of Tom Price.

The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to weaken below Tropical Cyclone intensity in the next few hours. However, squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

Heavy rainfall is continuing near the system center, and rainfall totals of 50-100 mm with isolated heavier falls are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the central Pilbara to the northeast of Tom Price.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 23.8S 117.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 25.6S 117.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 28.0S 118.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 29.0S 123.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi continues to weaken over land. The Port Hedland radar has showed significant weakening over the past couple of hours, and the center is becoming difficult to track.

The circulation should continue its south southwest track further inland with heavy rainfall expected south and east of the track for the next few days. Squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
189. RitaEvac
2:49 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
From first hand experience with drought in 2009 and 2011, you do not want to be in D3 and D4 classification. Those start messing with your water supply and affecting the landscape such as trees, one hundred yr old trees, foundations, water line breaks, concrete buckling, and vegetation. D2 is nothing compared to D4 and now I can attest to that.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
188. Minnemike
2:44 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Fun fact for the morning: according to the NWS, as of yesterday (1/11), Midland, Texas, has received more snow this winter than Chicago, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Combined.
i can attest to the Mpls part in that! with a small dusting yesterday, we went from nothing to nothing. Strong cold winds grew ice on my beard this morning, which is fine with me as long as there is snow and some indicators it should be winter... brown and frigid is just plain nasty :(
edit: that Buffalo is included astounds me
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
187. RitaEvac
2:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
I've moved into the Severe D2 category, ahhh, nice to be back in that section. Not sure why Beaumont and along the TX/LA border is in D3, they get all the rains more than us.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
186. WxGeekVA
2:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah.Good as in no one get's hurt/destruction right?


Exactly. I would hate to be chasing a storm and watch it destroy a town or something....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
185. washingtonian115
2:27 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I hope that the tornado season is good this spring, because my dad and I are taking two weeks off from school and work to go storm chasing in late March.
Yeah.Good as in no one get's hurt/destruction right?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
184. WxGeekVA
1:57 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone noted about the sst warming except for cooling.I know cold blast could come and easly cool them,but I think the warm sst could contribute to the tornado season we have...like last year for an exsample.


I hope that the tornado season is good this spring, because my dad and I are taking two weeks off from school and work to go storm chasing in late March.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
183. washingtonian115
1:55 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Someone noted about the sst warming except for cooling.I know cold blast could come and easly cool them,but I think the warm sst could contribute to the tornado season we have...like last year for an example.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
182. WxGeekVA
1:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
06Z DGEX PSU E-Wall

This mornings 06Z DGEX has some harsh cold for he southeast late next week, with sub-30s in central Florida and low 20s for the remainder of the interior. I don't think it will get quite get cold but it could be around freezing in FL at this time.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
181. washingtonian115
1:46 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Why isn't that a coincidence.This year we're suppose to have an ice storm on Tuesday.That happened last year after the Martin Luther King J.R holiday as well.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
180. WxGeekVA
1:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
More pictures of the tornado damage in western North Carolina, which was likely a high-end EF2 or low-end EF3. 15 people are injured according to their local news, but I do not think there have been any deaths...fortunately. Per request, I'll have radar images of the supercell when I get back from school this afternoon.







I'll agree with you there after having looked at the damage pictures myself. I estimate an EF-3 classification after the NWS finishes checking it out.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
179. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
15 injured in storms in 2 North Carolina counties



RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) At least 15 people were injured and at least 60 buildings damaged when a possible tornado struck two counties in western North Carolina, the National Weather Service said Thursday.

The storms struck in Rutherford and Burke counties late Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moved through the western Carolinas, said meteorologist Neil Dixon with the weather service office in Greer, S.C.

Ten people were hurt in Ellenboro in Rutherford County, sheriff's Sgt. Dwayne Wright said. Two of the injuries were serious, but Wright did not know the extent of the injuries.

At least 10 buildings were damaged in a 3-square-mile residential area, but Wright said officials expected to get a better count on the damage during surveys Thursday.

Some people initially were trapped in their homes.
"Everybody's out that we know of," Wright said. "As far as we know, everybody has been accounted for."
At least five people were hurt when the storm struck a few minutes later in the Icard area of Burke County, Dixon said.

County officials initially estimated 50 buildings had been damaged, he said. Burke County officials did not immediately respond to messages left by the Associated Press early Thursday.

A weather service survey team planned to tour the area Thursday to confirm that the damage was caused by a tornado, as well as to determine how strong the storm was, Dixon said.

The storm cell that caused the damage had dumped some hail in northwestern South Carolina before moving into North Carolina, he said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
178. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
More pictures of the tornado damage in western North Carolina, which was likely a high-end EF2 or low-end EF3. 15 people are injured according to their local news, but I do not think there have been any deaths...fortunately. Per request, I'll have radar images of the supercell when I get back from school this afternoon.





Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
177. Neapolitan
12:44 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Fun fact for the morning: according to the NWS, as of yesterday (1/11), Midland, Texas, has received more snow this winter than Chicago, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Combined.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
176. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

FRIDAY...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING A DRIER, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRNT DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE ONLY CHANGE PREVIOUS
RUNS IS MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE
IT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND FRONT...HOWEVER...A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO USHER SOUTH BEHIND IT WITH MAX TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW 70 ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AND JUST
AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOWN THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MDLS SUGGEST MIN TEMPS COULD COULD
FALL QUITE CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS EXTREME NW
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST DEFINITELY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 40S AND 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE NE-E. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT ON TEMPS. WL INDICATE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

For West Palm Beach...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11321
175. percylives
12:07 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Beautiful morning here in central Virginia. Clear skies and 40 degrees on the porch.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
174. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:09 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
6:00 PM WST January 12 2012
=========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.8S 118.3E or 170 km south of Port Hedland and 110 km north northeast of Tom Price has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the central inland Pilbara, with gusts to 100 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas south of Whim Creek extending towards Tom Price.

The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to be below Tropical Cyclone intensity later this evening. However, squally conditions are likely to continue near the center overnight as it tracks into the northeast Gascoyne.

Heavy rainfall is continuing near the system center, and rainfall totals of 50-100mm with isolated heavier falls are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the central Pilbara, south of Whim Creek extending towards but not including Tom Price.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
173. islander101010
9:32 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
flu is spreading quick here in e.cen fl. everyone at the office has it.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4774
172. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:18 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Official BOM number are 60kts or 69mph, just 5mph short of Hurricane strength which is 74mph.


definitely would have been a hurricane by the JTWC standards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
171. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:16 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
3:00 PM WST January 12 2012
=========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.4S 118.4E or 125 km south of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the Pilbara with gusts to 100 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas inland from Port Hedland and Whim Creek extending towards Tom Price.

The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to be below Tropical Cyclone intensity this evening.

Heavy rainfall is occurring near the system and rainfall totals of 100-250mm are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the Pilbara south of Whim Creek and Port Hedland extending towards but not including Tom Price.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 23.0S 117.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 24.7S 117.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 27.8S 118.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 28.8S 121.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is weakening over land although there remains a well defined radar signature and symmetric appearance on satellite imagery. The
system is expected to weaken below Tropical Cyclone strength during Thursday evening using a standard overland decay model.

The circulation should continue its south southwest track further inland with heavy rainfall expected south and east of the track for the next few days.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
170. sar2401
6:25 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Not to throw water on a flaming headline, but the the normal background of cesium-137 is practically zero. Cesium 137 is a man-made element produced as a by-product of nuclear fission. The only reason there is any cesium-137 in the natural environment is due to nuclear testing (or locally due to nuclear accidents).

The example I like to use is taking 1 gram piece of platinum and bury it in your backyard. Now unless your lucky and happen to have platinum in your backyard, burying that platinum just increased the amount in your backyard by several million percent. While true, it's a completely meaningless metric.

Sensationalizing just obfuscates the important facts.


Thank you, Xyrus, that was a very good anology. I really wish that reporters had the skill (or maybe the will) to put big numbers like this in perspective so people will be able to make reasonable judgements about relative risk.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
169. HurrikanEB
6:06 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Decent band moving into southern new york and new england. Not a snow band, but...

Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1340
168. sar2401
5:52 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
12 Infected With New Swine Flu Strain

By Jason Koebler January 11, 2012 RSS Feed Print

January 12, 2012 INDIANA - The days of medical masks at airports and widespread panic may be coming back that because at least 12 humans are believed to have been infected with a new strain of swine flu that not covered by this season vaccine. The new swine flu strain, H3N2v, has shown at least some potential for human-to-human transmission in those 12 individuals, which makes it especially dangerous. Between 2009 and mid-2010, more than 17,000 people died worldwide from the highly contagious H1N1 swine flu strain, leading the World Health Organization to call the strain a pandemic. The 12 people with the new swine flu strain live in Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Officials for the Centers for Disease Control say the sample size of H3N2 infections is too small to know whether it will pose a threat to the population at large. It s a very small sample and it geographically spread, which makes it more difficult to get a handle on it, says Jeffrey Dimond, a CDC spokesman. Most of the cases have come through direct contact with the animals, through the 4H Club and that sort of thing. In order to have a true threat of causing an epidemic or pandemic, Dimond says the virus needs to spread easily between humans. If you re in close contact with someone who s ill, that s one thing, he says. To make it like the pandemic flu of a few years ago, it has to be highly contagious from human to human. H3N2v or another new flu strain could disrupt what CDC officials expected to be a relatively quiet flu season. Each year s flu vaccine protects against specific strains of the virus that researchers expect to circulate. In October, Joe Bresee, chief of CDC s influenza epidemiology and prevention branch, said he was confident this year s vaccine would protect against the most dangerous flu strains. U.S. News

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/01/11/12 -infected-with-new-swine-flu-strain


Good heavens. As a paramagic, this is something I actually know about. Every year, some people show up with the so-called "Swine" flu, because certain animals acts as a reservoir for the virus. As the article noted (after scaring everyone to death), these people were in direct contact with animals, and there's no evidence of human to human spread. The Hx flu virus is a fast mutator, and that's one of the reasons it's not easily spread by human to human contact. I hope people don't start pulling those useless 3M masks out again and start running around in a panic until there's something to actually worry about.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
167. hcubed
5:41 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting skook:


That chart can't be right - not enough red.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
166. sar2401
5:40 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Nothing is more important than public awareness when it comes to the threat for severe. People are more inclined to take action when a threat is highlighted than when it is not. And again, its one thing for the local NWS WFO to get word out and inform the public, but SPC has the final word on whether to issue a watch or not. Obviously, the threat was not great enough for any type of watch, so no one "cried wolf".


I'm either not getting my point across clearly or you're failing to understand my concern. I know that, as a meteorologist, you have a different viewpoint than I do. As I wrote, I have no problem with the WSO highlighting a severe threat on the weather radio and other public feeds. I have a problem when that same threat continues to be highlighted when a threat no longer exists, even to the point that the storm system has moved out of the area. As a TV meteorologist, I'm sure you've been on the horns of a dilemma when the local WSO is putting out a forecast you don't agree with. In this case, the local EMA's, Skywarn nets, and other storm spotter organizations were continuing to man their posts until after midnight, when it was clear even to a non-meterologist like me that no severe weather was going to occur. The public does listen to the weather radio, and the TV mets tend echo what's being fed from the WSO, so the 10 pm weathercasts were still using highlight maps of areas where severe weather was expected, when none was happening or ever going to happen. The WSO has to realize that their actions, even in the absence of warnings, still impact a lot of people who feed them information they desperately need in the event of a real severe weather situation. Once they knew that a severe weather threat was not going to develop, they should have downgraded the Hazardous Weather Outlook language and the nowcasts. No one expects the NWS to be right all the time, and there's no embarrassment, IMHO, in admitting that Mother Nature just played a fast one on us this time.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
165. Xyrus2000
5:39 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
Really? No Danger!!!?

Fukushima’s Impact on the Ocean Analyzed
No danger from water, but marine sediments are the big question

By Prachi Patel / January 2012
In April, the Fukushima Daiichi plant sent 68 million becquerels per cubic meter of radioactive materials into the Pacific, making it the largest accidental release in history.
Special Report: Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Power

Editor's Note: This is part of the IEEE Spectrum special report: Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Power.

11 January 2012—One month after the March 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, ocean water at the plant’s wastewater discharge point had 45 million times the concentration of radioactive cesium-137 than before the accident, according to researchers in Japan and from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The numbers plummeted the next month because ocean currents moved the contaminants away from shore. By July, numbers were down to 10 000 times as high as normal.


What’s also troubling is that cesium-137 concentrations have stayed at near constant levels since July, implying that radioactive water is still being released, either directly from the reactors or indirectly from groundwater. "I’m convinced there are ongoing leaks," Buesseler says. "Even if you plug all leaks and shut down reactors, groundwater keeps leaching into the ocean and these waters and contaminated sediments can be a long-term source of cesium-137 for decades to a century."


Link


Not to throw water on a flaming headline, but the the normal background of cesium-137 is practically zero. Cesium 137 is a man-made element produced as a by-product of nuclear fission. The only reason there is any cesium-137 in the natural environment is due to nuclear testing (or locally due to nuclear accidents).

The example I like to use is taking 1 gram piece of platinum and bury it in your backyard. Now unless your lucky and happen to have platinum in your backyard, burying that platinum just increased the amount in your backyard by several million percent. While true, it's a completely meaningless metric.

Sensationalizing just obfuscates the important facts.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
164. AussieStorm
5:31 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Oh.



I agree, she was likely a minimal hurricane at landfall.

Official BOM number are 60kts or 69mph, just 5mph short of Hurricane strength which is 74mph.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
163. TomTaylor
5:28 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 344 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
thanks pat, I'm enjoying my evening for sure-got no homework! da best
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
162. AussieStorm
5:20 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 1:03 pm WST on Thursday 12 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for inland areas of the Pilbara south of Whim
Creek and Port Hedland extending towards but not including Tom Price.

At 1:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
100 kilometres south southwest of Port Hedland and
moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.


Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the Pilbara with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour possible close to the cyclone centre over areas inland from
Port Hedland and Whim Creek extending towards Tom Price this afternoon.

The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to be below
Tropical Cyclone intensity this evening.

Heavy rainfall is occurring near the system and rainfall totals of 100-250mm
are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices
for further details.

ALL CLEAR: People in or near coastal and inland communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland,
and Whim Creek, are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but
you need to take extreme caution to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 1:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.2 degrees South 118.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 12 January.


Tropical Cyclone Heidi crossed the Pilbara coast just to the east of Port
Hedland at around 4:30am WST on Thursday morning as a high end category 2 system
with maximum winds of around 60 knots
confirmed by surface observations.

The system is now weakening over land although there remains a well defined
radar signature to suggest that the cyclone may still be at category 2
intensity. However the system is likely to be below Tropical Cyclone strength
during Thursday afternoon as the effects of landfall take effect.

Heidi should continue its south southwest track further inland with heavy
rainfall expected south and east of the track.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
161. Patrap
5:19 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
There are now 344 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
160. sunlinepr
5:15 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
159. sunlinepr
5:12 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Really? No Danger!!!?

Fukushima’s Impact on the Ocean Analyzed
No danger from water, but marine sediments are the big question

By Prachi Patel / January 2012
In April, the Fukushima Daiichi plant sent 68 million becquerels per cubic meter of radioactive materials into the Pacific, making it the largest accidental release in history.
Special Report: Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Power

Editor's Note: This is part of the IEEE Spectrum special report: Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Power.

11 January 2012—One month after the March 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, ocean water at the plant’s wastewater discharge point had 45 million times the concentration of radioactive cesium-137 than before the accident, according to researchers in Japan and from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The numbers plummeted the next month because ocean currents moved the contaminants away from shore. By July, numbers were down to 10 000 times as high as normal.


What’s also troubling is that cesium-137 concentrations have stayed at near constant levels since July, implying that radioactive water is still being released, either directly from the reactors or indirectly from groundwater. "I’m convinced there are ongoing leaks," Buesseler says. "Even if you plug all leaks and shut down reactors, groundwater keeps leaching into the ocean and these waters and contaminated sediments can be a long-term source of cesium-137 for decades to a century."


Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
158. sunlinepr
4:52 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
12 Infected With New Swine Flu Strain

By Jason Koebler January 11, 2012 RSS Feed Print

January 12, 2012 INDIANA - The days of medical masks at airports and widespread panic may be coming back that because at least 12 humans are believed to have been infected with a new strain of swine flu that not covered by this season vaccine. The new swine flu strain, H3N2v, has shown at least some potential for human-to-human transmission in those 12 individuals, which makes it especially dangerous. Between 2009 and mid-2010, more than 17,000 people died worldwide from the highly contagious H1N1 swine flu strain, leading the World Health Organization to call the strain a pandemic. The 12 people with the new swine flu strain live in Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Officials for the Centers for Disease Control say the sample size of H3N2 infections is too small to know whether it will pose a threat to the population at large. It s a very small sample and it geographically spread, which makes it more difficult to get a handle on it, says Jeffrey Dimond, a CDC spokesman. Most of the cases have come through direct contact with the animals, through the 4H Club and that sort of thing. In order to have a true threat of causing an epidemic or pandemic, Dimond says the virus needs to spread easily between humans. If you re in close contact with someone who s ill, that s one thing, he says. To make it like the pandemic flu of a few years ago, it has to be highly contagious from human to human. H3N2v or another new flu strain could disrupt what CDC officials expected to be a relatively quiet flu season. Each year s flu vaccine protects against specific strains of the virus that researchers expect to circulate. In October, Joe Bresee, chief of CDC s influenza epidemiology and prevention branch, said he was confident this year s vaccine would protect against the most dangerous flu strains. U.S. News

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/01/11/12 -infected-with-new-swine-flu-strain
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
157. TomTaylor
4:34 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: South Carolina --> North Carolina

And yes, that is from today. Here is an image of the damage...Looks like high-end EF2/low-end EF3 damage:

yikes, hope everyone is okay. Damage in that picture doesnt look extreme but it still takes a pretty strong tornado to do that damage, in the ef2-ef3 zone based off that picture.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
156. SPLbeater
4:30 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
im bored
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
155. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:15 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
11:00 AM WST January 12 2012
=========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 21.0S 118.4E or 80 km south southwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

ropical Cyclone Heidi is moving across the Pilbara with gusts to 120 km/h possible close to the cyclone center over areas inland from Port Hedland and Whim Creek extending towards Tom Price this afternoon.

The system is weakening as it moves further inland and is expected to be below Tropical Cyclone intensity later this afternoon or evening.

Heavy rainfall is occurring near the system and rainfall totals of 100-250 mm are likely to the south and east of the cyclone path. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides along the Pilbara coast will be higher than normal.

ALL CLEAR: People in or near coastal and inland communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek, are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take extreme caution to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for Inland areas of the Pilbara south of Whim Creek and Port Hedland extending towards but not including Tom Price.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
154. Neapolitan
3:57 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
It's always the little things that are the most telling:

Manitoba chiefs declare emergency over ice road delays

"Northern Manitoba aboriginal leaders have declared a state of emergency over delays in the opening of winter roads.

"We declared a state of emergency so that the government of Canada and the province of Manitoba immediately start working with First Nations to develop a contingency plan. We need to make sure that essential resupplies of food and fuel arrive in our communities," said MKO (Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak Inc.) Grand Chief David Harper in a release.

St. Theresa Point First Nation Chief David McDougall said the failure to build an all-weather road "is threatening the health and safety of First Nations.

"Without being able to get the supplies to retrofit our homes to receive clean running water, we are left fully exposed to the next pandemic," McDougall said. St. Theresa Point was hit particularly hard by the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, sending more than a dozen flu patients to Winnipeg with severe respiratory problems.

Aboriginal leaders said they have repeatedly urged government to build an all-season road, and they say it's time for Ottawa to involve the military to get the job done. They say they need the immediate delivery of 77 tractor-trailer loads of goods.

The province already has acknowledged that this year's winter road season will be shorter than normal."


More...

In other news: there have now been 38 overnight low temperature records set this month in the United States, and 1,687 daily high temperature records, making for a somewhat lopsided ratio of 44.39 to 1.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
153. SPLbeater
3:48 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
goodbye website..my website is no longer available, :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
152. WxGeekVA
3:29 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: South Carolina --> North Carolina

And yes, that is from today. Here is an image of the damage...Looks like high-end EF2/low-end EF3 damage:



Even more impressive....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476

Viewing: 202 - 152

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast