Six more weeks of non-winter
Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!
On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.
He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.
After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!
That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)
Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.
How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.
What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)
Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.
Jeff Masters
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
* UNTIL 130 AM CST
* AT 1255 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIAMI...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MIAMI...LORA AND
CANADIAN.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 18.5S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.
Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has not increased much in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of a moderate northwest wind flow aloft. At this stage, the system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Global models are moving the system southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS
WELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE MOSTLY ISOLATED BY SUNDAY BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS DEEPER
LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENTER THE REGION THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW CONSISTENTLY THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN AND SEE WHAT INFLUENCE IT
HAS ON THE REGION.
She doesn't like to be fooled with, and she may be digging in her high heels.
What better year to show off, than 2012?
Yeah, not good! Look at the 79 temp just east of Melbourne.
NHC SST Anomalies only show significant warming off the NE US coast.
I understand that but the last time we had the Gulf this warm in Feb was 2004 & 2005 and we all know what happened those years but like washingtonian115 said it all depends on if we trend toward El-Nino sooner than expected.
The 11 year solar cycle does not appreciably add or remove heat from the system on climate scales. The variance in solar output is quite small.
As far as your experiment goes, the water will heat as long as you apply heat. After you turn off the heat (i.e. remove the water completely from the heat source, do not leave it on the burner) then it starts to cool. The water will not heat any further without a heat source. Evaporation does assist in cooling the water, but that happens even if the water is just sitting on a counter, though ambient temperature is enough to keep everything in equilibrium.
But your not really simulating the system. If you want to do a more accurate experiment, fill one bottle 1/4 way with water and normal air. Fill another bottle same way, except use CO2. This can be done easily using baking soda and vinegar. Since CO2 is heavier than air, you can effectively "pour" it into the bottle. You can try pouring in different amounts of CO2 as well, though it can be tough to tell how much you've added. Put holes in both caps big enough to put in a thermometer, but make sure you seal around the thermometer so no gases escape. Heat both bottles gently in a pan of water (or leave them out in the sun) for the exact same amount of time, then measure their temperatures over time.
What you'll notice is the bottle with CO2 will warm faster and cool slower than the one with just air. This is due to CO2 acting as a thermal insulator which reduces the amount of thermal energy that escapes. The difference in heat retention means that, as you cycle through heating and cooling at regular intervals, the CO2 bottle will gradually get warmer and warmer until you hit a point where the CO2 bottle hits a thermal equilibrium.
If you have access to some lab equipment with purified gases, valves, and such you can do this much more accurately by filling two containers with N2, then slowly displacing N2 with CO2 to one of them while repeatedly heating and cooling the containers. The container with CO2 will show an increasing trend in temperature while the one with just N2 will not. If you're measuring CO2 concentrations at the same time, you'll also be able to note the temperature response curve to increasing amounts of CO2.
For bonus points, if you have a thermal imager in your lab, you can have two containers set up (one with CO2, one without) and position them both in front of a heat source. The container without CO2 will show up as transparent, while the one with CO2 will be opaque.
sst's are always plenty warm come june1 every season.
No really. Reason why I posted that map is because we may have June 1st SST averages in April this year.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1030 AM CST
* AT 823 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT FM-787 IN THE TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AREA.
RAINFALL OF 9.3 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ACE NEAR FM-2610.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 1030 AM CST.
* COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...SHEPHERD...SEGNO...ROMAYOR...AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.
Skye, I have lost my link to Maue's website. The coaps link no longer works. Do you happen to one. I would appreciate it.
Your friend in need,
Grothar
Link
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...BURKEVILLE...
* UNTIL 930 AM CST
* AT 856 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BURKEVILLE BY 920 AM CST...
STRINGTOWN BY 925 AM CST...
Xyrus2000 (#268) +100000.
I will forward your instructions to the ecology teacher at the local high school.
Thanks.
be back aftr brefkast
Very warm winter it has been.
3:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
+0
Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?
Perhaps they are attempting to influence the Weather?
Because when I saw it I thought I would share it with a group of people who would do well to live by the items outlined in that manifesto. I don't see any harm in it, and last I checked it had a +3 on it, so apparently it isn't a negative thing that people hate.
Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.
Drum roll and crashing cymbals!!!!
Yep, that explains it. :oD
Gobbler is an American nickname for turkey. Gobblers Knob : Turkey Hill
Near as I can tell, turkeys have been on the land as far back as people can remember.
And yeah, I do know that Brits had great fun misinterpreting "Free Willy", 'fanny pack', 'beach bum', etc
Would of loved to go riding today, but had class in the morning. (Hey, at least it was a meteorology class!) Im fine with it warming up in the Denver area as long as it snows in the mountains, which hasn't been happening. Most of the major resorts got snubbed again with this storm, as the large majority of the snow is falling east of the Continental Divide with the upslope flow.
I'm sure many of us will be interested to see once you figure it out.
Many different independent groups have worked up energy balances of the earth's climate system. If your suggestion is that we are still warming up because of a previous solar cycle, then we would have discovered an energy imbalance (more incoming solar energy than outgoing energy). Also, different from your in-house experiment, the earth has had the same heating source (and its associated cycle) for some time, and thus has been at near-equilibrium. Studies have shown than the lag from the solar cycle variations is less than one solar cycle, on the order of 1-5yrs (I think ~2yrs is considered the best estimate), so energy from the cycle would not really compound directly, but instead of inertia of the climate system.
Ironically enough, scientists have discovered an energy imbalance, but it has occurred at the exact wavelengths that greenhouse gases absorb/re-emit. This has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere; greenhouse gases that have been traced to fossil fuels. This energy imbalance has put more energy into the climate system than has yet been observed with air/ocean/ice temperatures, so more warming is in the pipeline from climate inertia.
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