Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

+25

Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.

The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)

Windows in the winter (cetus)

Snowy Golosiiv wood...

The snow and sun (Cirrostratuss)

Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.

Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)

Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.

Winter (roslany)

Frozen River (tomekandjola)

Categories: Winter Weather

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801. SPLbeater 7:39 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Only thing that I haven't seen much about yet, is do the wind speeds meet the criteria for classification? ASCAT showed 10-20 knots on southeast, east side. 20 knots on N side. So not good enough, even if it was closed. :) Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955

802. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:41 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Only thing that I haven't seen much about yet, is do the wind speeds meet the criteria for classification? It was initialized with winds of 30 mph. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25356

803. WxGeekVA 7:41 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Bergeron: It's a very shallow system right now. Wind shear and zonal shear are going to pickup over the next 18 hours...very limited window...if it stays shallow, could make STS...fairly low chance though As the above map shows, shear has actually been decreasing over the past few hours. Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

804. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:41 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Bergeron: Not hardly 25 knots and decreasing. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25356

805. Stormchaser2007 7:41 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

806. Bergeron 7:42 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: As the above map shows, shear has actually been decreasing over the past few hours. I know that...I said picking up in 18 Hours Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

807. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:43 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Link You cannot link animations from there. I do not know why. Levi uses a script to animate those images and post them here, but I do not know any other way. "This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview." Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25356

808. NCHurricane2009 7:43 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater: GFS and ECMWF barely show anything from this system...NOGAPS appears most aggressive, with some weak development. This 90L might not make it....maybe, but maybe not... The models may not be well-initialized with this system. Sometimes current satellite observations are better than the models...& by golly 90L just keeps getting better organized and fast.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

809. wunderkidcayman 7:48 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
ok I am leaving and I'll be back in about 2-3hours to see what has changed with 90L Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5512

810. NCHurricane2009 7:48 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
From the NHC 2PM EDT discussion!!!! GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N90W ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 05/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 27N87W 23N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI THROUGH THE W ATLC TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. Unbelievable!!! Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

811. GTcooliebai 7:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: The models may not be well-initialized with this system. Sometimes current satellite observations are better than the models...& by golly 90L just keeps getting better organized and fast.... I think the models are still on vacation in the Caribbean slurping on their pineapple martinis. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5204

812. cchsweatherman 7:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Keep this in mind when considering the computer model runs. Invest 90L was just initialized within the past couple hours and the data associated with the system has not entered through the various computer models except the BAM suite. So with that being said, we will get a better idea as to how the computer models handle the situation later this evening and overnight. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

813. WeatherNerdPR 7:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

814. stormwatcherCI 7:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

815. islander101010 7:51 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
key west radar shows a significant shower area Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2970

816. stormwatcherCI 7:54 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
NHC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION AS FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISTURBANCE...SRN STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W SHIFTING E-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY HAS MOVED OVER LLVL TROFFING IN SAME LOCATION...WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF W TIP OF CUBA. IR AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LLVL TURNING AND CLOUD LINES FROM SW TO NE OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH AN 1800 UTC SHIP OB OF SE WINDS AT 20 KT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH APPARENT CYCLONIC TURNING. FURTHER INSPECTION OF VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MESO LOW NEAR 23N87W...WHERE WE HAVE PUT A LOW ON SFC MAP...AND ANOTHER LOW OR TWO ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NE THEN E-NE ACROSS THE STRAITS AND TO THE KEYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACROSS S FL MON AND MON EVENING AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT APPEARS OBVIOUS THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS S FL MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHIFTING NE ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. WHETHER OR NOT A SFC LOW IS REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT IN A SMALL ZONE ACROSS N AND NW QUAD OF ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME LINGERING TROFFING LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MAIN CONCERNS. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

817. nrtiwlnvragn 7:58 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Miami NWS Excerpt: WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUBTROPICAL VORT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. TRAINING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED NEAR KEY WEST...AND THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8946

818. NCHurricane2009 7:58 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai: I think the models are still on vacation in the Caribbean slurping on their pineapple martinis. You know...I bet the main media (like the weather channel...the "hurricane authority") is asleep at the switch with this one. We don't need them anyway.... KmanIslander...you can be like Jim Cantore reporting live....I'll get the ominous storm alert music from the weather channel....LOL.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

819. SPLbeater 8:01 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: You know...I bet the main media (like the weather channel...the "hurricane authority") is asleep at the switch with this one. We don't need them anyway.... KmanIslander...you can be like Jim Cantore reporting live....I'll get the ominous storm alert music from the weather channel....LOL.... ya we certainly dont need a bunch of media hype, with a system that doesnt have a sure future. this thing could develop, or it could organize some more, and fall apart. I bet if it did develop into ALberto, they would have people down in Key West, Cancun n such lol Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955

820. CybrTeddy 8:02 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quick and dirty blog update on 90L. First of the year. Enjoy. Incredible and rare Invest 90L in the Yucatan Straight - 2/5/12 Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

821. SPLbeater 8:03 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Jasmine... Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955

822. NCHurricane2009 8:09 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Official analysis for the first time has a surface low pressure center marked on the surface trough...per the latest North America HPC analysis: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif The 1013 mb low pressure center is much further NW than where satellite imagery suggests it should be. Perhaps the low pressure center is located beneath the divergence maximum of the associated upper trough...and this divergence maximum is not coincident with the deepest convection.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

823. Tropicsweatherpr 8:09 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Still,despite being at NRL and having first tropical model plots at 12z after four hours ,there is still nothing at the atcf site about 90L. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8267

824. MississippiWx 8:09 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Interesting buoy observation south of the center: Station 42056 NDBC Location: 19.802N 84.857W Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2012 18:50:00 UTC Winds: SW (230°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec Mean Wave Direction: E (99°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling Air Temperature: 75.7 F Water Temperature: 79.9 F Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

825. HurricaneVSafety 8:10 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
90L Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

826. Thrawst 8:11 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Overcast in Nassau. Had rain earlier. wish it kept raining -.- Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1067

827. stormwatcherCI 8:12 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Still,despite being at NRL and having first tropical model plots at 12z after four hours ,there is still nothing at the atcf site about 90L. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

828. HurricaneVSafety 8:12 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting islander101010: key west radar shows a significant shower area Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

829. NCHurricane2009 8:15 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx: Interesting buoy observation south of the center: Station 42056 NDBC Location: 19.802N 84.857W Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2012 18:50:00 UTC Winds: SW (230°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec Mean Wave Direction: E (99°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling Air Temperature: 75.7 F Water Temperature: 79.9 F That buoy coordinate is well southeast of the 1013 mb center referenced in post 822...so the SW wind direction makes sense. The wind gusts, wave height, and pressure falls send chills up and down my spine! Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

830. JrWeathermanFL 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Tomorrow we will have A. Alberto B. TD1 C. 90L D. 90L Gone E. Something else Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051

831. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:19 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL: Tomorrow we will have A. Alberto B. TD1 C. 90L D. 90L Gone E. Something else 60% C., 40% B. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25356

832. JBirdFireMedic 8:19 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
NEW BLOG! Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

833. JrWeathermanFL 8:20 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: 60% C., 40% B. Thanks Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 1051

834. NCHurricane2009 8:21 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL: Tomorrow we will have A. Alberto B. TD1 C. 90L D. 90L Gone E. Something else C....Invest 90L Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

835. Xyrus2000 9:18 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: You are talking about post-season 2012, and I was talking about regular season 2012. Not even gonna reach hurricane strength. This season's a bust. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1018

836. JupiterKen 10:03 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I'm not saying it will develop, but I'm saying it has a much better chance than you are making it out to be, HurricaneDean07. And you base this upon your many years of tropical weather observation? Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 295

837. BahaHurican 11:00 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17688

838. sunlinepr 12:41 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

839. sunlinepr 12:42 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

840. sunlinepr 12:46 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

841. sunlinepr 12:48 AM GMT on February 06, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

842. scooster67 7:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr: 90L is looking a "Little Loopy" and looks to bring some more rain to Florida. Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

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