It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Twelve of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:
Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F
However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).
Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January - February 2010, during the last El Niño event.
Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.
Figure 3. The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit: NASA.
Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought--called D4 or exceptional drought--about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.
2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)
I'll have a new post on Friday.
Jeff Masters
The winter in Marquette has been a mild one, but we still have a foot of snow on the ground.
Juneau had over a dozen avalanches on Thursday. Thane Rd, about a mile south of downtown was closed by one on Mt Roberts.
Looks ominous , but never turned into anything. Silver mountain, elevation 6300', with 6.5 feet of powder!
Houston Flood Day Skyline (
SurfYak)
I shot this skyline during a short break in the rain today. We needed rain so badly here in Houston but we got too much of it all at once and now there's flooding all over the city!
For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo),
Click here.
For more of my photography, visit my
Flickr page.
Southwest Michigan first snow of 2012.
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ya Igor my favorite too
401 LargoFl "A friend asked that very question awhile ago, if all the artic ice melts, would florida again..be under water? Is there that much ice up there???"
Haven't read the Wahr,Jacob,Pfeffer,Swenson paper yet; can't find it in the latest Nature available online. And as usual, the news media left out most of the relevant info, so I may revise my answer later.
The total meltdown of Arctic glaciers alone would cause up to a 7metre(23foot) rise in sea-level
A naive 7meter-maximum coastal flooding map of Florida.
(Sorry, can't post an image of the map itself)
But based on memories about my*writings on the previous gravitational mascon study circa (I think) 2008-2009...
...Antarctic glacial melt was accelerating -- even on the EastAntarcticIceSheet -- and poised to catch up with the Greenland melt-rate.
So a naive 13meter-minimum coastal flooding map is probably a more accurate representation of what the Florida coastline would be like by the time the Arctic glaciers totally melted.
* Which might be in the archives here, though it might be on another site. I tend to respond to questions/comments rather than initiate conversations.
"A naive 7 meter maximum coastal flooding map of Florida."
It gets even more interesting when you look a bit further afield to New Orleans?
why would you say that?
Even though it's reportedly globally colder than average year, it's still not even the coldest year within the past 30 years.
By the time you adjust for heat of fusion and heat of vaporization, the total heat capacity of the earth is probably as hot or hotter than ever.
Recall, phase changes mask most of the "heat" from being recorded as "temperature."
If you toss a cubic meter of ice at 0C into an 80 cubic meter pool which is 20C, the ice will melt and lower the average temperature by absorbing much of the heat.
average temperature of the 81 cubic meters of water and ice is roughly 20*80/81 at the start.
As the ice absorbs enough heat for a phase change, the temperature drops.
The heat of fusion of the cubic meter of ice is about 335,000,000 Joules.
The heat capacity of the 80 cubic meters of water is: 336,000,000 Joules per 1C, or 6,720,000,000 Joules.
So if you subtract the heat of fusion of the ice cube from the heat capacity of the liquid water, you are left with:
6,385,000,000 Joules
Now divide back by volume(81) and specific heat capacity of a meter of water(4,200,000) to get average temperature after melting:
This gives an average TEMPERATURE of 18.768C....
A significant decrease in temperature, even as the HEAT went up or stayed the same...
This goes under "lies my thermometer told me".
Where does this happen in nature?
Oh yes, the sea ice and glaciers that are melting, absorbing enough heat for a phase change from the atmosphere and surrounding environment, and mixing 0C water back into the rivers, lakes, and oceans.
So the HEAT actually goes up, even as the average TEMPERATURE goes down.
Mathematics shows how that is possible due to phase changes.
Not only is the Earth warming, it is warming much faster than the average TEMPERATURE implies...
The National Weather Service has its beginnings in the early history of the United States. Weather has always been important to the citizenry of this country, and this was especially true during the 17th and 18th centuries.
The beginning of the National Weather Service we know today started on February 9th, 1870, when President Ulysses S. Grant signed a joint resolution of Congress authorizing the Secretary of War to establish a national weather service. This resolution required the Secretary of War
"to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent and at other points in the States and Territories...and for giving notice on the northern (Great) Lakes and on the seacoast by magnetic telegraph and marine signals, of the approach and force of storms"
After much thought and consideration, it was decided that this agency would be placed under the Secretary of War because military discipline would probably secure the greatest promptness, regularity, and accuracy in the required observations. Within the Department of War, it was assigned to the Signal Service Corps under Brigadier General Albert J. Myer. General Meyer gave the National Weather Service its first name: The Division of Telegrams and Reports for the Benefit of Commerce.
Grant photo
Nice example, and well put forward.
But JupiterKen is already convinced that the Worlds climate is cooling down. That's just the way it is.
But keep up the struggle anyway.
..get da picture?
here's some honesty for ya: Reagan was WAY to liberal to be able to get any traction in republican circles today...
Welcome to D.C. Shore!!!!
We don't want to get too enthusiastic at this early stage!
No. The polar ice is already in the water, so other than tiny increases due to thermal expansion you won't get a net ocean rise.
If you're talking about the ice sheets on land, such as Greenland's ice cap, then yes you would get a significant amount of sea level increase. However, the Greenland ice sheet is quite thick so the chance of it melting off within your lifetime is very unlikely.
Current projected sea rise due to accelerated melting is expected to be anywhere from one foot to one meter by the end of this century.
Go to my blog and watch or follow the link
That's really good actually.. I can make radar images on paint ;) They come out pretty good haha.
Scary for all of Louisiana. I read recently that they have a massive coastal protection system in the works. I hope that will come to be and help. Meanwhile here just across their border the 7 meter rise map looks almost identical to the surge map from Ike in my county. So we know what that would look like already. We have talks in progress to get a levee system. That would probably be a good idea. :)
GOOD - Hurricane Earl 2010
There's nothing wrong with constructing new nuclear power plants, as long as they aren't using 30 and 40 year old designs to do it.
I liked Ronald Reagan. Still do in fact.
Good morning all.
It's 6 a.m. The fear is gone.
This was after I had originally though Irene would hit Georgia.
Best to use tried and true technology Xyrus. Boot up the abacus!
Kidding of course.
Not that I'll be around to collect (or pay out), but I'd put good money on a much bigger and quicker rise than officially expected. If nothing else, remember when it was believed that the Arctic Sea couldn't possibly be ice free in summer for at least another 50 years, and now projections are that it could reach that point in just five years?
this was when models and the NHC had it steering due west towards the southern part of Mexico.
Next.. Some of the bad forecasts.
Bah-dah-BOOM!
No, Ronnie was alright. I even shook his hand a time or two (my mom worked for his gubernatorial and presidential campaigns). But presslord is correct: Reagan wouldn't be welcome now, when the heads of his own party are so far to the right they can see their own left ears. For that matter, the current Democratic party leadership is to the right of where Reagan was back in the day...
Uhh... yeah, was wayy off on that one.
.... no comment ....
Ummm... yeaaahh
According to Meteo France, 12S has been named Giovanna.
Got banned on Flhurricane for saying this was going to strengthen more then forecast. The ingredients were ripe for rapid development.
Actually, you were within your cone, and the intensity was just a category too high....
Yeah, but you did still have the possibility that shear could dissipate her....
Yeah.... Epic fail there.... And yeah, Jerry was nowhere near there.
Good forecast.
Subtropical Storm Alpha (1972)
I could see it now:
"FIIIIIIIISSSSSSSHHHHH!!!!!"
"OMG DOOM!"
"Cat 5 to Jacksonville then New Orleans"
"This is GLOBAL WARMING!!!"
Of course I was in the cone.. The cone was like the width size of Alaska :P
All of your other forecasts have been good or relatively good, but this one...phew!
Lol.
Ahem. That wouldn't drive the blog as crazy as THIS would. Global warming? No, global boiling!
I was just about to post something about that....lol
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
13:00 PM NZDT February 10 2012
=====================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (965 hPa) located at 25.2S 172.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in the western quadrant
70 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest
Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in sector from northwest through northeast to southwest
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 10 2012
================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (992 hPa) located at 14.7S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.
Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.6S 62.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.5S 60.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.5S 57.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.1S 53.9E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
Additional Information
=====================
For the last 6 hours, system has intensified with a active convective band wrapping in the west of the the central cloud mass. Between 1710 PM UTC and 2110 PM UTC, sea level pressure of 23946 buoy is stable despite system is going away westward.
System is tracking west southwestward at about 10 kt on the north-western edge of the low-mid level subtropical ridge situated in the southeast. Within the next 36 hours, system should keep this track.
On Saturday, it is expected to slow down a bit due to a weakness in the mid level anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 48 hours, track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track. In regard of previous run, ECMWF forecast that system will go down less toward the south on Saturday with a less important deceleration. Consequently, RSMC official forecast track has been a little bit readjusted.
On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Vertical wind shear is weak and divergence is good mainly southward. Poleward outflow channel is expected to improve within the next 36 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Sunday evening and after, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Consequently intensity should level off then a bit reduce before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar that is expected on Tuesday early in the morning.
Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system. Official forecast track bring Giovanna very closely of Saint Brandon on Saturday in the morning.
The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC
We have our ups and downs haha
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