Fourth warmest January on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2012

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It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Twelve of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).


Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January - February 2010, during the last El Niño event.


Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.


Figure 3. The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit: NASA.

Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought--called D4 or exceptional drought--about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.

2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

A Foot of Snow (den117)
The winter in Marquette has been a mild one, but we still have a foot of snow on the ground.
A Foot of Snow
Avalanche (snodog)
Juneau had over a dozen avalanches on Thursday. Thane Rd, about a mile south of downtown was closed by one on Mt Roberts.
Avalanche
Contrasts (NicholasLee)
Looks ominous , but never turned into anything. Silver mountain, elevation 6300', with 6.5 feet of powder!
Contrasts
Houston Flood Day Skyline (SurfYak)
I shot this skyline during a short break in the rain today. We needed rain so badly here in Houston but we got too much of it all at once and now there's flooding all over the city! For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Houston Flood Day Skyline
Wind damage (clehouser)
Southwest Michigan first snow of 2012.
Wind damage

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102. flsky
Quoting RTSplayer:


If that's how you feel, then why are you even concerned about our survival or the environment?

You won't be around to see anything of future generations one way or another.

If everything is an accident, then it is of no value whatsoever.

Besides, if everything is pre-determined, or just random quantum fluctuations, saving the environment and destroying the environment are equally valid solutions to the same cosmic equation.

Why value humans above bacteria or even turds, if everything is an accident?

Why do you care what happens to future generations, if everthing is an accident?


With everything an accident, there is no heaven and no hell. Isn't that refreshing! Now you can live your life to the fullest and enjoy the best that you can do in the present!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't see anything too severe with that low unless we're talking about South Texas. CAPE isn't that impressive nor are the LI's.

and it's not going to look impressive that far out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:


There are millions of people that live without electricity today, maybe the US will suffer economic and potentially some human losses. The initial article you posted said the worst imaginable solar storm occurred in the 1800s, why was I born? To say that a solar flare will eliminate human kind is laughable.


He never said anything about the elimination of human kind, more like the returning of large portions of the globe to pre-Technological Revolution levels similar to Third World countries....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting RitaEvac:


While were trying to figure out who the next president is and the next scandal, time is ticking and that report should be going out to the world so the conversation can begin. Maybe just the way nature intended for us, if we are destroying the planet, the sun will just spit out a flare and POOF....out goes the lights and everything else we've built. And the planet heals itself by eliminating us...


There are millions of people that live without electricity today, maybe the US will suffer economic and potentially some human losses. The initial article you posted said the worst imaginable solar storm occurred in the 1800s, why was I born? To say that a solar flare will eliminate human kind is laughable.
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Grrrr.. how are we supposed to make money on climate change when this keeps happening?

Link
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Quoting MTWX:

It's that blog Dr. Masters did that got me thinking about that scenario in the first place, never really got off my mind.

Me, too. Since then I use to get a quantum of shivering showers a day watching the GOES 15 Solar X-ray Imager (SXI).

Links to Dr. Masters original blogs on this sun topic are on one of my recent posts. I had to search for them quite a time.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/barbamz/comment. html?entrynum=21

Perhaps he will give us an update at some time to come? I would really appreciate it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Same thing I mentioned last night. Gotta watch this with 80-110 knots of wind shear forecast by the GFS.
I don't see anything too severe with that low unless we're talking about South Texas. CAPE isn't that impressive nor are the LI's.
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Plant life blooming and a super cell tornado here in Alabama in January. I'm beginning to wonder if there will still be an Alabama after the upcoming Spring tornadoes.
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Quoting Jax82:


I'm stocking my pantry with milk jugs as we speak :)


While were trying to figure out who the next president is and the next scandal, time is ticking and that report should be going out to the world so the conversation can begin. Maybe just the way nature intended for us, if we are destroying the planet, the sun will just spit out a flare and POOF....out goes the lights and everything else we've built. And the planet heals itself by eliminating us...
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93. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
I bet my post at 79 awoke a lot of people up

It's that blog Dr. Masters did that got me thinking about that scenario in the first place, never really got off my mind. I have read some other literature on it elswhere too. Most state that the timeframe for the US to recover the power is in the neighborhood of 10 years! I couldn't imagine how long it would take for a world wide recovery!
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Hurricane Dean of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Don't blame me for the mess the satellite goes through in the western Caribbean. :P

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
This is the end ...
The Doors always accompany my mind when the blog talks about the apocalypse. BTW the greek term "apocalypse" originally just means: revelation. We'll see what we are, what we're meant to be und what's all about (even with weather, I hope - just to stay on topic, lol).
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I bet my post at 79 awoke a lot of people up


I'm stocking my pantry with milk jugs as we speak :)
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone have the link to this GFS snowfall model. I can't find it on Google. I know the map is outdated but I can't find this model on the web anywhere except in someone else article only as a image. Thx in advance.




It's part of Twisterdata.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
I bet my post at 79 awoke a lot of people
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interesting blog thoughts on here today...
Grey overcast cold here in Mid TN..
Wife is traveling to Philly for a funeral glad it's not blizzarding this weekend..
There are so many problems in this world and most we probably don't even know about.. God made it real simple for us.. Love your neighbor as yourself.. that takes care of everything
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Quoting RTSplayer:


If that's how you feel, then why are you even concerned about our survival or the environment?

You won't be around to see anything of future generations one way or another.

If everything is an accident, then it is of no value whatsoever.

Besides, if everything is pre-determined, or just random quantum fluctuations, saving the environment and destroying the environment are equally valid solutions to the same cosmic equation.

Why value humans above bacteria or even turds, if everything is an accident?

Why do you care what happens to future generations, if everthing is an accident?
Say what?

Because any ending at our own hands isn't days or months or even years away, but decades, so solutions may yet be possible. Because I have children, and some day they'd like to have children of their own, and so on, and just because I won't be around to see them all doesn't mean I'm free of responsibility to be a good steward. Because I like to think that mankind isn't completely bent on his own destruction. Because there's greatness in life and in nature and in the cosmos that far transcends any reasons our ancestors invented for our being here. Because there's intrinsic value in being moral, both for myself and toward others, a morality that exists at a very profound level.

But mostly because, despite its many imperfections, life is beautiful. And I like beautiful things.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Ah....MANY THANKS! lol....I guess I could have just went to Twister-data.com but alas that would have taken intelligence on my part.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
About the "end of the world" nonsense...

It just saddens me that so many people are, pardon me for the expression, idiots!

The whole populace should listen to Michio Kaku. He is extremely wise. But then again, not everyone is ready to listen.

Why do people listen to a civilization that existed a couple of thousands years ago when we have made so much progress?

In my opinion, scientific progress over the last hundred to two hundred years has been increasing at such a violent and rapid rate that a major part of civilization today is just not prepared to change so fast. Some people are, some people aren't.

Optimistically, widespread change is slowly but SURELY happening as we get on with our days. Advancement towards a level 1 multi-cultural, planetary, inter-connected and scientific tolerant society is forthcoming.


I listen to Michio Kaku often, but he hasn't got a solution for humanity either.

Oh yes, regarding technology and possibilities, he as more vision, and more practical, matter-of-fact applications in mind than most physicists.


But in terms of "meaning" and the human condition, he has no more answers than Neapolitan above.

Technology and antibiotics and vaccines may "save" life in the short term, and in some rare cases may even allow people to live and reproduce who otherwise would not. Yet ultimate, they've never actually saved one life. All patients die eventually.


Yet, given the human moral condition, mortality may actually be a good thing.

Would you like to live forever in the world as it is today? Would you like to live forever under an immortal tyrant?

Do you think all the wonders of science that Michio Kaku has postulated may soon be possible are going to solve human suffering?

No.

Everything we invent we weaponize, and the wealthy and greedy abuse to rob everyone else.

Virology, metallurgy and other materials sciences, chemistry, nuclear; we have weaponized all of these things in order to kill one another more efficiently.

The A.I. will be used to make warbots and to put humans out of work.

The nano technology will be used to make self-replicating WMD that is more efficient and easier to control and deliver than viruses or bacteria.

The quantum computers will be used by governments and corporations to spy on people and oppress them.

The Supreme court has already given employers the right to fire someone just because they smoke, even if they don't do it on the clock. How long before your boss is given power to implant a chip in your body and monitor your every move in life?

You are already guilty until proven innocent when it comes to drug testing for employment, and random testing thereafter.


If you place your hope in science or technology, you ultimately have no hope. Sure they have their rightful place, yet the more we learn as a species the more we invent ways to kill and oppress one another more effectively.

Every major invention in the history of humanity has been weaponized.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Ice be gone

closeup from this image
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maybe this remains of 90L

or did they go south
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Some real end of the earth style pollution in this satellite. Hold your breath!

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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Please, please, please, please verify, but it won't. They never do that far out. How much cold air does GFS bring in with that storm at T=168h?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting MTWX:
Just to throw in my 2 cents on this who "end of the world" discussion. I'm kinda fond of the idea of a massive solar flare striking earth, creating global electrical failure. People have become slaves to the electronic world, total chaos would ensue. Money would mean nothing! People would be forced to rely on each other to survive, no matter where you stand class wise. I believe people would finally look at each other as equals! (Thats just the way I see it, though people these days would likely just kill and steal each others belongings, never figuring out how to survive without power and eventually die out anyway)


From Dr. Masters blog a few years ago.



Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe

It is midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colorful light. Few New Yorkers have seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.

A year later and millions of Americans are dead and the nation's infrastructure lies in tatters. The World Bank declares America a developing nation. Europe, Scandinavia, China and Japan are also struggling to recover from the same fateful event - a violent storm, 150 million kilometers away on the surface of the sun.

It sounds ridiculous. Surely the sun couldn't create so profound a disaster on Earth. Yet an extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in January this year claims it could do just that.

Over the last few decades, western civilizations have busily sown the seeds of their own destruction. Our modern way of life, with its reliance on technology, has unwittingly exposed us to an extraordinary danger: plasma balls spewed from the surface of the sun could wipe out our power grids, with catastrophic consequences.

The projections of just how catastrophic make chilling reading. "We're moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster," says Daniel Baker, a space weather expert based at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and chair of the NAS committee responsible for the report.

It is hard to conceive of the sun wiping out a large amount of our hard-earned progress. Nevertheless, it is possible. The surface of the sun is a roiling mass of plasma - charged high-energy particles - some of which escape the surface and travel through space as the solar wind. From time to time, that wind carries a billion-tonne glob of plasma, a fireball known as a coronal mass ejection (see "When hell comes to Earth"). If one should hit the Earth's magnetic shield, the result could be truly devastating.

The incursion of the plasma into our atmosphere causes rapid changes in the configuration of Earth's magnetic field which, in turn, induce currents in the long wires of the power grids. The grids were not built to handle this sort of direct current electricity. The greatest danger is at the step-up and step-down transformers used to convert power from its transport voltage to domestically useful voltage. The increased DC current creates strong magnetic fields that saturate a transformer's magnetic core. The result is runaway current in the transformer's copper wiring, which rapidly heats up and melts. This is exactly what happened in the Canadian province of Quebec in March 1989, and six million people spent 9 hours without electricity. But things could get much, much worse than that.

Worse than Katrina
The most serious space weather event in history happened in 1859. It is known as the Carrington event, after the British amateur astronomer Richard Carrington, who was the first to note its cause: "two patches of intensely bright and white light" emanating from a large group of sunspots. The Carrington event comprised eight days of severe space weather.

There were eyewitness accounts of stunning auroras, even at equatorial latitudes. The world's telegraph networks experienced severe disruptions, and Victorian magnetometers were driven off the scale.

Though a solar outburst could conceivably be more powerful, "we haven't found an example of anything worse than a Carrington event", says James Green, head of NASA's planetary division and an expert on the events of 1859. "From a scientific perspective, that would be the one that we'd want to survive." However, the prognosis from the NAS analysis is that, thanks to our technological prowess, many of us may not.

There are two problems to face. The first is the modern electricity grid, which is designed to operate at ever higher voltages over ever larger areas. Though this provides a more efficient way to run the electricity networks, minimizing power losses and wastage through overproduction, it has made them much more vulnerable to space weather. The high-power grids act as particularly efficient antennas, channeling enormous direct currents into the power transformers.

The second problem is the grid's interdependence with the systems that support our lives: water and sewage treatment, supermarket delivery infrastructures, power station controls, financial markets and many others all rely on electricity. Put the two together, and it is clear that a repeat of the Carrington event could produce a catastrophe the likes of which the world has never seen. "It's just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters," says John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NAS committee that produced the report. "Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions."

According to the NAS report, a severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people (see map). From that moment, the clock is ticking for America.

First to go - immediately for some people - is drinkable water. Anyone living in a high-rise apartment, where water has to be pumped to reach them, would be cut off straight away. For the rest, drinking water will still come through the taps for maybe half a day. With no electricity to pump water from reservoirs, there is no more after that.

There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or over ground. Our just-in-time culture for delivery networks may represent the pinnacle of efficiency, but it means that supermarket shelves would empty very quickly - delivery trucks could only keep running until their tanks ran out of fuel, and there is no electricity to pump any more from the underground tanks at filling stations.

Back-up generators would run at pivotal sites - but only until their fuel ran out. For hospitals, that would mean about 72 hours of running a bare-bones, essential care only, service. After that, no more modern healthcare.

72 hours of healthcare remaining
The truly shocking finding is that this whole situation would not improve for months, maybe years: melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced. "From the surveys I've done, you might have a few spare transformers around, but installing a new one takes a well-trained crew a week or more," says Kappenman. "A major electrical utility might have one suitably trained crew, maybe two."

Within a month, then, the handful of spare transformers would be used up. The rest will have to be built to order, something that can take up to 12 months.

Even when some systems are capable of receiving power again, there is no guarantee there will be any to deliver. Almost all natural gas and fuel pipelines require electricity to operate. Coal-fired power stations usually keep reserves to last 30 days, but with no transport systems running to bring more fuel, there will be no electricity in the second month.

30 days of coal left
Nuclear power stations wouldn't fare much better. They are programmed to shut down in the event of serious grid problems and are not allowed to restart until the power grid is up and running.

With no power for heating, cooling or refrigeration systems, people could begin to die within days. There is immediate danger for those who rely on medication. Lose power to New Jersey, for instance, and you have lost a major centre of production of pharmaceuticals for the entire US. Perishable medications such as insulin will soon be in short supply. "In the US alone there are a million people with diabetes," Kappenman says. "Shut down production, distribution and storage and you put all those lives at risk in very short order."

Help is not coming any time soon, either. If it is dark from the eastern seaboard to Chicago, some affected areas are hundreds, maybe thousands of miles away from anyone who might help. And those willing to help are likely to be ill-equipped to deal with the sheer scale of the disaster. "If a Carrington event happened now, it would be like a hurricane Katrina, but 10 times worse," says Paul Kintner, a plasma physicist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

In reality, it would be much worse than that. Hurricane Katrina's societal and economic impact has been measured at $81 billion to $125 billion. According to the NAS report, the impact of what it terms a "severe geomagnetic storm scenario" could be as high as $2 trillion. And that's just the first year after the storm. The NAS puts the recovery time at four to 10 years. It is questionable whether the US would ever bounce back.

4-10 years to recover
"I don't think the NAS report is scaremongering," says Mike Hapgood, who chairs the European Space Agency's space weather team. Green agrees. "Scientists are conservative by nature and this group is really thoughtful," he says. "This is a fair and balanced report."

Such nightmare scenarios are not restricted to North America. High latitude nations such as Sweden and Norway have been aware for a while that, while regular views of the aurora are pretty, they are also reminders of an ever-present threat to their electricity grids. However, the trend towards installing extremely high voltage grids means that lower latitude countries are also at risk. For example, China is on the way to implementing a 1000-kilovolt electrical grid, twice the voltage of the US grid. This would be a superb conduit for space weather-induced disaster because the grid's efficiency to act as an antenna rises as the voltage between the grid and the ground increases. "China is going to discover at some point that they have a problem," Kappenman says.

Neither is Europe sufficiently prepared. Responsibility for dealing with space weather issues is "very fragmented" in Europe, says Hapgood.

Europe's electricity grids, on the other hand, are highly interconnected and extremely vulnerable to cascading failures. In 2006, the routine switch-off of a small part of Germany's grid - to let a ship pass safely under high-voltage cables - caused a cascade power failure across western Europe. In France alone, five million people were left without electricity for two hours. "These systems are so complicated we don't fully understand the effects of twiddling at one place," Hapgood says. "Most of the time it's alright, but occasionally it will get you."

The good news is that, given enough warning, the utility companies can take precautions, such as adjusting voltages and loads, and restricting transfers of energy so that sudden spikes in current don't cause cascade failures. There is still more bad news, however. Our early warning system is becoming more unreliable by the day.

By far the most important indicator of incoming space weather is NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The probe, launched in 1997, has a solar orbit that keeps it directly between the sun and Earth. Its uninterrupted view of the sun means it gives us continuous reports on the direction and velocity of the solar wind and other streams of charged particles that flow past its sensors. ACE can provide between 15 and 45 minutes' warning of any incoming geomagnetic storms. The power companies need about 15 minutes to prepare their systems for a critical event, so that would seem passable.

15 minutes' warning
However, observations of the sun and magnetometer readings during the Carrington event shows that the coronal mass ejection was travelling so fast it took less than 15 minutes to get from where ACE is positioned to Earth. "It arrived faster than we can do anything," Hapgood says.

There is another problem. ACE is 11 years old, and operating well beyond its planned lifespan. The onboard detectors are not as sensitive as they used to be, and there is no telling when they will finally give up the ghost. Furthermore, its sensors become saturated in the event of a really powerful solar flare. "It was built to look at average conditions rather than extremes," Baker says.

He was part of a space weather commission that three years ago warned about the problems of relying on ACE. "It's been on my mind for a long time," he says. "To not have a spare, or a strategy to replace it if and when it should fail, is rather foolish."

There is no replacement for ACE due any time soon. Other solar observation satellites, such as the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) can provide some warning, but with less detailed information and - crucially - much later. "It's quite hard to assess what the impact of losing ACE will be," Hapgood says. "We will largely lose the early warning capability."

The world will, most probably, yawn at the prospect of a devastating solar storm until it happens. Kintner says his students show a "deep indifference" when he lectures on the impact of space weather. But if policy-makers show a similar indifference in the face of the latest NAS report, it could cost tens of millions of lives, Kappenman reckons. "It could conceivably be the worst natural disaster possible," he says.

The report outlines the worst case scenario for the US. The "perfect storm" is most likely on a spring or autumn night in a year of heightened solar activity - something like 2012. Around the equinoxes, the orientation of the Earth's field to the sun makes us particularly vulnerable to a plasma strike.

What's more, at these times of year, electricity demand is relatively low because no one needs too much heating or air conditioning. With only a handful of the US grid's power stations running, the system relies on computer algorithms shunting large amounts of power around the grid and this leaves the network highly vulnerable to sudden spikes.

If ACE has failed by then, or a plasma ball flies at us too fast for any warning from ACE to reach us, the consequences could be staggering. "A really large storm could be a planetary disaster," Kappenman says.

So what should be done? No one knows yet - the report is meant to spark that conversation. Baker is worried, though, that the odds are stacked against that conversation really getting started. As the NAS report notes, it is terribly difficult to inspire people to prepare for a potential crisis that has never happened before and may not happen for decades to come. "It takes a lot of effort to educate policy-makers, and that is especially true with these low-frequency events," he says.

We should learn the lessons of hurricane Katrina, though, and realize that "unlikely" doesn't mean "won't happen". Especially when the stakes are so high. The fact is, it could come in the next three or four years - and with devastating effects. "The Carrington event happened during a mediocre, ho-hum solar cycle," Kintner says. "It came out of nowhere, so we just don't know when something like that is going to happen again."

We must heed the threat of solar storms
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Anyone have the link to this GFS snowfall model. I can't find it on Google. I know the map is outdated but I can't find this model on the web anywhere except in someone else article only as a image. Thx in advance.



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77. MTWX
Just to throw in my 2 cents on this who "end of the world" discussion. I'm kinda fond of the idea of a massive solar flare striking earth, creating global electrical failure. People have become slaves to the electronic world, total chaos would ensue. Money would mean nothing! People would be forced to rely on each other to survive, no matter where you stand class wise. I believe people would finally look at each other as equals! (Thats just the way I see it, though people these days would likely just kill and steal each others belongings, never figuring out how to survive without power and eventually die out anyway)
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Quoting LargoFl:
not so, if you study their writtings its an end to an era and the big change is..the beginning of the new and different era, supposedly a whole new beginning, the last change came about in the days of ..hmm, noah's ark and the great flood, roughly 5200 years ago, then came the (then) new beginning, and if you believe a civilization roughly 3,000 to 4,000 years old, with a great belief and for their time, somehow knowing how the earth and planets react every 5200 years or so..unbelievable without all the techno things we have today, how they knew, but they did...so, lets see and look forward to the coming changes, some say we read their calendar wrong and the date is off by 100 years...lets see, but it IS..interesting to talk about it.


That's why it's amazing.
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Quoting hydrus:
Storm depicted by GFS in a week...


Please, please, please, please verify, but it won't. They never do that far out. How much cold air does The GFS bring in with that storm at T=168h?
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yep, and there is at least a dozen survivalists sites milking that for all it's worth.

The simple fact is, any world ending cataclysm will kill off almost all of humanity within the first few months (including preppers), along with a large portion of the current species. After that it will simply be a matter of time before the rest die off as well. Unless you have developed your own sheltered preserve underground where you have a complete closed cycle biosphere to live off from, then it is only a matter of time before your resources run dry.

If you're preparing for an end to a stable civilization, that is at least somewhat logical. But if we have a super-volcano eruption, asteroid impact, or other such planet altering event then people are wasting their time and money. Any survival plan that relies on living off the land in such an event will fail (assuming you survive the initial event in the first place).


I thought the world ended last year. And this scum bucket polluted, overpopulated mess must be heaven.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
according to the mayans the end date is dec 21 2012 at 605 am eastern north american time as the sun rises and its not the end of this world just the end of our world as we know it
not so, if you study their writtings its an end to an era and the big change is..the beginning of the new and different era, supposedly a whole new beginning, the last change came about in the days of ..hmm, noah's ark and the great flood, roughly 5200 years ago, then came the (then) new beginning, and if you believe a civilization roughly 3,000 to 4,000 years old, with a great belief and for their time, somehow knowing how the earth and planets react every 5200 years or so..unbelievable without all the techno things we have today, how they knew, but they did...so, lets see and look forward to the coming changes, some say we read their calendar wrong and the date is off by 100 years...lets see, but it IS..interesting to talk about it.
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About the "end of the world" nonsense...

It just saddens me that so many people are, pardon me for the expression, idiots!

The whole populace should listen to Michio Kaku. He is extremely wise. But then again, not everyone is ready to listen.

Why do people listen to a civilization that existed a couple of thousands years ago when we have made so much progress?

In my opinion, scientific progress over the last hundred to two hundred years has been increasing at such a violent and rapid rate that a major part of civilization today is just not prepared to change so fast. Some people are, some people aren't.

Optimistically, widespread change is slowly but SURELY happening as we get on with our days. Advancement towards a level 1 multi-cultural, planetary, inter-connected and scientific tolerant society is forthcoming.
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Quoting Patrap:
Kinda looks like the Devil in the GOM

: )


Or a chicken that had its butt kicked in..Good afternoon Pat.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
02/08/2012
Ice Fever: Holland Abuzz about 'Mythical' Skating Race
The event hasn't been held for 15 years. But, this week, Holland is abuzz with anticipation that the famed "11 Cities Tour" might take place in the coming days. All that's needed are a few more cold nights before 16,000 skaters can take to the 200-kilometer course.
More on Spiegel online (with nice pics from ice and big buzz in Holland)
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Quoting RTSplayer:


If that's how you feel, then why are you even concerned about our survival or the environment?

You won't be around to see anything of future generations one way or another.

If everything is an accident, then it is of no value whatsoever.

Besides, if everything is pre-determined, or just random quantum fluctuations, saving the environment and destroying the environment are equally valid solutions to the same cosmic equation.

Why value humans above bacteria or even turds, if everything is an accident?

Why do you care what happens to future generations, if everthing is an accident?
This is entirely funny..Especially the "equally valid solutions to the same cosmic equation" part.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
Storm depicted by GFS in a week...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Possible severe weather event by the 15th in Texas and Louisiana?


Same thing I mentioned last night. Gotta watch this with 80-110 knots of wind shear forecast by the GFS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting Neapolitan:
We're a happy accident of evolution, and nothing more. We aren't the first, and we won't be the last.


If that's how you feel, then why are you even concerned about our survival or the environment?

You won't be around to see anything of future generations one way or another.

If everything is an accident, then it is of no value whatsoever.

Besides, if everything is pre-determined, or just random quantum fluctuations, saving the environment and destroying the environment are equally valid solutions to the same cosmic equation.

Why value humans above bacteria or even turds, if everything is an accident?

Why do you care what happens to future generations, if everthing is an accident?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Possible severe weather event by the 15th in Texas and Louisiana?



Yeah next week could be a bad week for severe wx across the south. I'm starting wonder what's causing the south to suddenly begin to see so many rain events during a La Nina winter? Is La Nina weakening that fast?
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I have not had time to read he blog, so forgive me if this is a duplicate.

Link

..........It was also a good day because of the striking way it could demonstrate to us just how much the planet has changed in 40 years. As Jeff Masters, the web's most widely read meteorologist, explains, "The US and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western US is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s." .................
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Possible severe weather event by the 15th in Texas and Louisiana?

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Quoting StormTracker2K:



Gonna be a wet weekend here in C & S FL.


We need it.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
I have a question;

is a strong high pressure ridge in the mid to high latitudes the same thing as blocking?

Because the Blocking strength is getting strong around 140W accoridng to CPC, and there is a 1037mb ridge sitting there.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
NWS here in Melbourne thinks a widespread 1" to 2" event is possible Saturday. This would be great news for a thirsty C FL.
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Quoting Grothar:



Gonna be a wet weekend here in C & S FL.
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Quoting Patrap:


They are complicit as to what content is "allowed"..as their Masters are not interested in educating the Horde. And soon they will Roll out a Trojan Horse in one last attempt to control us. But we are expecting it.

Dont fall for it, it's a ruse.

The Universe creates Novelty without Human Logic involved, and December is not the Focus of the coming event, March, early March is..as no more "tension Language" arise's after that.

The Universe Laugh's like Phyllis Diller after a good pun.

"Dec, Hah"!!



and just what do you think will happen next month?

My grandmother is a year older...we enter spring...temperatures gradually climb to a bit warmer...anything else?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
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On another note... I'm looking forward to a solid weekend rain maker here in Central Florida. The models aren't in agreement about it yet so its hard to say to what degree will be the intensity of this system, how much will fall, and where. But hopefully we shall have a very soggy Saturday full of beneficial rain.

We got drenched on Monday from a summer like line of sea breeze storms and had some drizzly light rain all day yesterday, green grass is finally returning.

I'm thinking personally it looks pretty promising here.
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SH102012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) JASMINE


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.