Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar
Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.
Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
I'll have a new post on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
306 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER CARIBBEAN AIR
POLEWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. THE CONSEQUENT WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY...A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A RAIN EVENT WILL BE SETTING UP
FROM WEST TO EAST. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL SHOVE THE CANADIAN FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT (SEE SHORT-WAVE GENERATION
REGION) WILL SET OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL RUN UP AGAINST THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...
SLOWING NEAR AN ATLANTA TO CAMERON TO OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE LINE BY
NOON FRIDAY. THE CONVECTIVE RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A COOL
STABLE RAIN WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.
Any rain there because a apparently a moisture plume is supposed to move west to the FL Coast tomorrow from the Bahamas?
That's a whole lotta rain. Hope you guys get some!
Nobody in my family graduated college, it looks like I will be the first one. However, both my mom and day are taking college classes now...30 years later, lol.
Jed~ Great perspective..
Ultimately, there also needs to be a society change as well, even with grand public school reform, it can't fix all the dysfunctional family situations that are so widespread now.
People as a whole must change, government can be reformed but people have to change for things to really get better.
I may have come off a little tough on the public schools.. I know lots of kids & I'm one, that came through okay. Even now, there is plenty of kids that will make it through & be something great.
It is broken though. You've got legislation dumbing down, corporations trying to get in on it. I think the parents that can really do & are concerned has given up & struck out on this homeschool movement. You get more if you just invest the time & money in the kid then using it to fight for the kid to get a better education. The internet is definitely changing things too.
Yes it is a lot and thanks. We're officially out of the drought here. Now listed as "abnormally dry." And the ground is saturated so there may be some flooding depending on how fast it falls. But it's still hard to wish ANY rain away. Lol. 'Cause it can go away quick once the heat sets in.
Good for them! :)
When your mom was growing up education and highly educated people were more respected.
For some dumb reason some of us let a few politicians sell us the idea that uneducated people know more than educated people.
There's a lot to be said for practical experience, but when it comes to open heart surgery I want a top level, university educated surgeon cutting into me and not some guy who dropped out of high school. Even if he does have a lot of experience dressing deer....
Date: 4:00 PM EST Wednesday 7 March 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.05 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4
Temperature: 60.8°F
Dewpoint: 36.9°F
Humidity: 41 %
Wind: SW 22 gust 34 mph
1. Teachers are recruited while in college from among the top 10% of the nation's graduates; they are required to obtain a Master's degree in Education.
2. There are national goals but no mandated standardized testing until the end of the senior year in high school.
3. Most of the schools are small enough for all the teachers to know all the students; the teachers consult with one another and collaborate to provide individualized support, as needed, from the time a child first enters school.
4. The teachers are respected as professionals and given the authority to determine the best way to facilitate attainment of the national goals for each of their students.
Read the article to learn more about how to make public education successful:
Link
Looks like a blob...
Wilmington, New Hanover International Airport
Lat: 34.28 Lon: -77.92 Elev: 46
Last Update on Mar 7, 4:53 pm EST
Overcast
63 °F
(17 °C)
Humidity: 68 %
Wind Speed: E 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.54" (1034.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 52 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
The Smithsonian had an excellent article about public education in Finland. Finnish public school students have been at or near the top of world-wide rankings in reading, math, and science for the last several years. During this same period U.S. students rankings have been declining. What are the Finns doing that we are not?
1. Teachers are recruited from the top 10% of university graduates and required to obtain a master's degree in education.
2. Schools are small enough for the teachers to know almost all the students so that the teachers are able to consult with one another and collaborate to provide individualized educational programs as needed.
3. There are national educational goals but no mandated standardized testing except for a test at the end of the senior year in high school.
4. The teachers are respected as professionals and given the authority to determine the best way to facilitate the achievement of the national goals by each student.
I'm having trouble getting the link to work, so here it is in plain test:
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/Why-A re-Finlands-Schools-Successful.html?c=y&page=1
Now here it is with the link feature:
Link
overnight temps are not to drop below 50
warm again tommorow in am
then cooling in the afternoon
with cool temps for friday
then a rtn to above sat onward
for all of next week
for spring break
I really hope that pans out like that! Downtown Houston in the 4-5" range!
PCFA: RED
NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report]
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated Mar 07 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF red
[Latest and Full Report]
Recent and Current Conditions
Weak La Niña conditions emerged in early August 2011, and became weak/moderate strength during northern autumn 2011. As of mid-February 2012, SST anomalies remain in weak to moderate La Niña territory in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. For January the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -1.08 C, indicative of weak to moderate La Niña conditions, and for the October-December season the anomaly was -1.06 C. Starting in December 2011, the IRI's definition of El Niño conditions follows that of NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, in which the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceeds 0.45 C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.45 C or less. The most recent weekly SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region is -1.0 C, indicating weak to moderate La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific; this is about the same as the -1.08 C level observed in January.
As of mid-February, most of the dynamical and statistical models predict La Niña conditions for the Feb-Apr season, with noticeable weakening beginning toward the end of that period and continuing into the subsequent seasons of northern spring 2012. For the Feb-Apr season, 69% of the models indicate La Niña conditions, and 31% indicate neutral conditions. For Mar-May, these figures nearly reverse, to become 38% and 62%, respectively. At lead times of 4 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. Among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 68% predict ENSO-neutral SSTs for the Jun-Aug 2012 season, 11% predict La Niña conditions, and 21% predict El Niño conditions. (Note 1). Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/graphics/warnings _timeline_29378.png
Shown here are the latest SECCHI beacon images. The STEREO space weather beacon telemetry mode is a very low rate, highly compressed data stream broadcast by the spacecraft 24 hours per day. These data are used for space weather forecasting. Because of the large compression factors used, these beacon images are of much lower quality than the actual science data.
Website
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the M-flare activity during the next three days.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from today's X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
This is normally a slowly trickling creek, as you see, it's become a raging torrent.
This is KOOL!
ABOUT 20 people have been evacuated from a retirement village in southwest Sydney as wild weather escalates the NSW flood crisis.
The Scalabrini Retirement Village in Edmondson Avenue, Austral, was evacuated on Thursday morning after the nearby Bonds Creek broke its banks.
"The creek broke its banks there so it was a pre-emptive flood rescue," a State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman told AAP.
At Rossmore, also in the city'ss southwest, two motorists were rescued after four cars were caught in flash flooding.
Other motorists were rescued in Campbelltown and Austral.
Storms lashed the city, the NSW south coast and other parts of the state overnight.
Seven homes near the Jerrara Dam, at Jamberoo, west of Kiama, were evacuated on Thursday morning after the rain filled the dam close to overflowing.
The order was thought to have affected about 20 people.
A policeman was lucky to escape serious injury when he fell down a mountain in NSW's Southern Highlands.
The 40-year-old male sergeant was sent to Moss Vale Road on Cambewarra Mountain, in Nowra, about 12.30am (AEDT) on Thursday to help the State Emergency Service (SES) deal with a fallen tree.
The officer was standing by the side of the road when the surface gave way, sending him plummeting down the side of the 650-metre high mountain.
His fall was halted by vines about 30 metres down.
Emergency services rescued him and he was taken to Shoalhaven Hospital in a stable condition.
Meanwhile, residents of southwest and central west NSW continue to deal with major flooding.
The area around Griffith, in the state's Riverina Region, and Forbes will be the main focus for emergency services on Thursday with substantial flooding continuing in both.
An SES spokesman said 120 properties were flooded in Beelbangera, just outside Griffith, overnight into Thursday.
The Lachlan River system, around Forbes, is expected to peak at about 10.65 metres on Thursday evening, potentially causing more flooding.
Flooding has eased slightly in Wagga Wagga but about 600 people in the city's north and a number in neighbouring Gumly Gumly, are still unable to return to their homes because of inundations.
Wettest week in history
NSW has recorded its equal wettest week on record, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement, after a slow moving rain-band dredged the state with an average of 123.9 mm rainfall.
"The 2012 record of 123.9 mm is shared with 1974, also a La Nina year, with rainfall figures recorded between 7 and 13 January," the BOM said.
"Australia is in the throes of two consecutive La Niña events, which have contributed to heavy rainfall and flooding affecting much of eastern Australia.
"As a result of this recent rainfall we are now seeing widespread flooding across southeast New South Wales, and the northern and Gippsland regions of Victoria.
"It is very rare to have such persistent, record-breaking rainfall over such large areas of New South Wales and Victoria," said Dr Coutts-Smith.
Your country has been having a spat of very unusual weather the past few years. Is this normal???
Hey! It is completely logical. LOL Pattern recognition!
I think that normally it is unusual. Or, is it unusually normal? Or, it is .... never mind.
it aint just a blob. if u look at animations u will see that :D
UPPER DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS TROF ARE FCST BY MODELS TO
TRIGGER RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF ITSELF SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS AND
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT PERIODS OF PRECIP THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH TRAINING A POSSIBILITY. ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
SUITE ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THRU MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN 1/3-1/2 OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...TWO SIGNIFICANT THINGS I SEE MISSING ARE A LLVL
FOCUS/BOUNDARY AND SLOW STORM MOTION. NOT TO DISCOUNT THAT A
MESOSCALE/MICROSCALE SITUATION MIGHT END UP OCCURRING THAT WOULD
PRODUCE THESE...BUT AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW I JUST DON`T THE SEE
CONTINUOUS AND NEVER ENDING PRECIP FROM FRI-MONDAY MORNING
GFS/ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING. THINK THE CANADIAN LOOKS MOST REALISTIC.
SEEN SIMILAR FCST PATTERNS BOTH VERIFY AND BUST ACROSS SE TX.
LITTLE CHANGES IN TIMING, POSITIONING, MESOSCALE FACTORS AND RIDGE
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE OUTCOME. FOR
NOW WOULD JUST EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIP THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF
MOISTENING GROUND CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND WILL HOPEFULLY
NAIL THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
La Nina normally does this.
Southern NSW Feb 14, 2012
March 5, 2012
Oh, yeah!! Try this:
Let a = 1
Let b = 1
a²-b² = ab-b²
(a-b) (a+b) = b(a-b)
2 = 1
16S
Yep! That is the answer I go too. But, I had to do it twice.
You are very unusual.
Actually, the first one is wrong anyway.
The right hand limit is positive and the left hand is negative, so they diverge.
Therefore the limit does not exist.
Infinity != DNE
flare start
Click image for loop.
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