# Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar
 Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 +31
Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.

Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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 201. AussieStorm 11:06 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Click image for loop. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
 202. Grothar 11:08 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:Yep! That is the answer I go too. But, I had to do it twice.It had Einstein stumped for years, too! It is a simple no-no in mathematics when you finally see the logic of what is wrong with the equation. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
 203. Patrap 11:10 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:Pat why does the sun vid get grainy?keeper is correct as that is the ionized Energy from the event that strikes the sensors on board the spacecraft.file Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322
 204. Patrap 11:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 The Region stays active and another CME or Solar Flare is expected and will be Earth directed22:55 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322
 205. MAweatherboy1 11:16 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Patrap, or anyone else knowledgeable on the subject: What are the chances I can see the Northern Lights in MA the next couple nights? I've had opportunities before, but it's always cloudy... The next few nights will be clear though. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356
 206. Patrap 11:17 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTCIncoming Full-Halo CMEIncoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322
 207. Grothar 11:17 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
 208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:18 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40480
 209. Patrap 11:20 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 From the solarham.com siteStatistical Auroral Oval Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322
 210. nymore 11:22 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting MAweatherboy1:Patrap, or anyone else knowledgeable on the subject: What are the chances I can see the Northern Lights in MA the next couple nights? I've had opportunities before, but it's always cloudy... The next few nights will be clear though. look at posts numbers 111 and 117, I posted some info that will help you out. Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
 211. TomTaylor 11:24 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting yqt1001:Don't be excited. :P High school (and up) work sucks! Just be happy you don't actually have to go to high school, there is a lot of change from middle school to high school.It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest years of your life, enjoy them. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 212. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:27 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TomTaylor:It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest of your life, enjoy them.High School is NOT easy, at least not mine. :P Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 213. TxKeef 11:28 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting Patrap:Current Solar Activity and Heliospheric Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) ConditionsThat last burst seems ominous. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
 214. AussieStorm 11:28 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
 215. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:30 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight..."Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras." Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 216. Grothar 11:31 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight..."Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras."Link, please! Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
 217. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:36 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting Grothar:Link, please!No, you don't need a link...=) Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 218. JNCali 11:37 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow? Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1029
 219. TomTaylor 11:39 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting Grothar:Oh, yeah!! Try this:Let a = 1Let b = 1a²-b² = ab-b²(a-b) (a+b) = b(a-b)2 = 1tricky ol grothardon't cancel out those (a-b)s and you wont have any problems Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 220. TomTaylor 11:40 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:High School is NOT easy, at least not mine. :PIn the long run it will be though. It's not like college or working full time will be any easier lol Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 221. MAweatherboy1 11:42 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting nymore: look at posts numbers 111 and 117, I posted some info that will help you out.Thank you, those were very informative! Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356
 222. KoritheMan 11:44 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting yqt1001:He's homeschooled, he's already hurt socially.While that certainly seems to be true for most, for reasons already mentioned, I personally feel that homeschooling is the best avenue academically because it tends to provide a one on one student/teacher environment where the kid can learn at their own pace. Whereas in public school, that's not an option.I don't know if I'm the exception to the rule or what, but I've never had a problem with being social, and I was homeschooled and had minimal social exposure save a brief two-year period of baseball when I was 6-7. I guess it really depends on the kid though, as my brother is notoriously shy coming from the same background.Point being, you can be social if you are homeschooled, but the chances are probably less likely. Doesn't mean you can't ultimately outgrow it though. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
 223. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:45 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 It'd be nice if we could have a day like this again, without all those tornado reports. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 224. TomTaylor 11:46 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting SPLbeater:And my mom dont really do much schooling with me, she does that wit my brother who has textbooks and stuff. my cirriculum is on computer. das why i am here throughout the day. work school 10 minutes/Wunderground 5 minutes/work school 10 minutes/Wunderground 5 minutes :DThat is not something to be proud of, your education is only going to suffer. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 225. KoritheMan 11:47 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:It'd be nice if we could have a day like this again, without all those tornado reports.Look how close one of those tornadoes came to my town! Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15429
 226. nymore 11:47 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Everybody from International Falls, MN to Brownsville, TX should watch for auroras tonight..."Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras." Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma or a line from northern South Carolina to northern California Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
 227. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:49 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:No, you don't need a link...=)Quoting nymore: Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma to perhaps northern Georgia and northern California"...all latitudes..."Brownsville was probably a bit much, but still, you get the point, lol.P.S. The link is in the comma and periods of the above quote :) Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 228. nymore 11:50 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:"...all latitudes..." The Equator? Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
 229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:51 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting KoritheMan:While that certainly seems to be true for most, for reasons already mentioned, I personally feel that homeschooling is the best avenue academically because it tends to provide a one on one student/teacher environment where the kid can learn at their own pace. Whereas in public school, that's not an option.I don't know if I'm the exception to the rule or what, but I've never had a problem with being social, and I was homeschooled and had minimal social exposure save a brief two-year period of baseball when I was 6-7. I guess it really depends on the kid though, as my brother is notoriously shy coming from the same background.Point being, you can be social if you are homeschooled, but the chances are probably less likely. Doesn't mean you can't ultimately outgrow it though.as long as they don't go postal should be fine Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40480
 230. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:51 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting KoritheMan:Look how close one of those tornadoes came to my town!Edit: Oops, hold on. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 231. aspectre 11:55 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Corrected version of the below has been moved to 239 due to program-flaws in Modify Comment.195 Grothar "Try this"Let a = 1 , Let b = 1a%uFFFD-b%uFFFD = ab-b%uFFFD(a-b)(a b) = b(a-b)2 = 1For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances.(a-b) = 0(a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zerozero divided by zero is undefinedAnd nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinity. It is undefined. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
 232. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:55 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Edit: Oops, hold on.1845 5 W J P COLEMAN STATE P TISHOMINGO MS 3493 8825 TORNADO REPORTED BY A STATE TROOPER ON THE GROUND MS HWY 25 NORTH NEAR THE TENN/TOMM WATERWAY. (MEG)0305 UNK 5 E OCEAN SPRINGS JACKSON MS 3041 8872 DAMAGE TO 2 COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS IN FOUNTAINBLEAU. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN. (LIX)2115 BRAXTON SIMPSON MS 3202 8997 NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF-1 TORNADO OCCURRED IN NORTHERN SIMPSON COUNTY. DETAILS TO FOLLOW. (JAN)2142 1 NNW UTICA HINDS MS 3212 9063 EF-1 RATED TORNADO WITH 95 MPH WINDS ... 3.5 MILE PATH LENGTH FROM 1.5 NNW UTICA TO 4 NE UTICA AND 0.25 MILE PATH WIDTH ... NUMEROUS PINE TREES SNAPPED/UPROOTED AND A NUMBE (JAN)2238 BRAXTON SIMPSON MS 3202 8997 UPDATE ... NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINED AN EF1 TORNADO WENT THROUGH THE CITY OF BRAXTON. SIMPSON COUNTY SHERRIFF OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH SO (JAN)2250 RUTH LINCOLN MS 3138 9032 UPDATE ... NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINES AN EF-1 TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE NEAR RUTH. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS AND SOME TREES DOWN ON MOBILE HOMES (JAN)0043 12 SSE POPLARVILLE PEARL RIVER MS 3068 8946 MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED A FEW SOFT WOODS AND ONE HARD WOOD. TWO HARDWOODS UPROOTED. 40 PERCENT OF METAL ROOF OFF HOUSE WITH A FEW ROOF BEAMS BROKEN OFF. BEAMS AND METAL (LIX)0049 AVERA GREENE MS 3130 8874 AT 830PM CDT ... THE COUNTY EMA RECIEVED INFORMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OF TORNADO DAMAGE INCLUDING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. SEVERAL CAR ACCIDENTS MAY ALSO BE R (MOB)0145 5 E OCEAN SPRINGS JACKSON MS 3040 8872 ROOFING PEELED OFF OF A COUPLE METAL COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS IN FOUNTAINBLEAU AREA.WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF TWO HOUSE. LARGE SECTION OF TWO FENCES BLOWN DOWN. SEVERAL MEDIUM TR (LIX) Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
 233. ScottLincoln 11:57 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting JNCali:8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow?Well, technically its 6-8" over about 1/2 of the state, with a small maxima of 8.4in.Most of the flow on the Mississippi comes from the Ohio River (on average). During last year's flood event, we were able to get a couple hundred thousand cfsdown the Arkansas, but that was still small compared to the combined 2million cfs of both the Ohio and the upper Mississippi. It could create a bit of bump, but it would be pretty tough to cause flooding on the lower Miss. from rainfall in that area. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1563
 234. TomTaylor 11:58 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 Quoting nymore: Yea do you have a link for your hype? For Brownsville TX to see them would require a KP index of 9 or the maximum on the chart. My best guess if we get smacked pretty hard would be Oklahoma or a line from northern South Carolina to northern CaliforniaKP index for this event is supposed to be level 6According to the University of Fairbanks, this is generally where a KP index of 6 will show upUnfortunately, the usual SPWC Aurora forecast is not working Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 235. hydrus 12:00 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 wow. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14257
 236. JNCali 12:01 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting 1900hurricane:New HPC 5 Day QPF:8.4 inches of rain for the entire State of Arkansas?! What is that going to do to downstream Mississippi river flow? Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1029
 237. Grothar 12:01 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting aspectre:195 Grothar " Let a = 1 , Let b = 1a²-b² = ab-b²(a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b)2 = 1 "For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances. (a-b) = 0 (a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zero = undefinedAnd nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinityI knew that! Just look at post 202. I gave a hint. Now you gave away my big trick for the day. I hope you're happy! LOL (P.S. Were you homeschooled?) :) Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
 238. nymore 12:06 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting TomTaylor:KP index for this event is supposed to be level 6According to the University of Fairbanks, this is generally where a KP index of 6 will show upUnfortunately, the usual SPWC Aurora forecast is not working Your KP index (bar)chart shows what is happening now the CME people are talking about has not reached us yet. I expect it to hit at least a KP7 with a small chance at KP8 briefly. But this is just my best guess. Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
 239. aspectre 12:06 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 195 Grothar "Try this"Let a = 1 , Let b = 1a²-b² = ab-b²(a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b)2 = 1 For those who don't know the trick, the flaw is that you canNOT divide by zero under any circumstances.(a-b) = 0(a-b) divided by (a-b) = zero divided by zero zero divided by zero is undefinedAnd nope, 1 divided by 0 is NOT equal to infinity. It is undefined. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
 240. wxgeek723 12:10 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting TomTaylor:It really just depends what classes you take. I would certainly encourage people to challenge themselves in high school if they desire to get into a top level school or are pursuing a more challenging major. The problem I have is that parents, counselors, and teachers all try to tell students that they must take the toughest courses and get the highest test scores or they will not go anywhere for college and end up in some dead end job. I hear this same stuff over and over, and it is really a load of crap.If you maintain passing grades, take decent classes, and do your extracurricular activities you will get into most colleges and can certainly go on to lead a successful career. Too much pressure is put on high school students, people need to realize that what you do in high school will not determine where you end up in life. Your high school years are some of the best and easiest years of your life, enjoy them.High school the best years of your life!? I will gladly debate that. Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350
 241. AussieStorm 12:12 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Sydney Doppler WindsClick image for loop. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
 242. Grothar 12:13 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
 243. DavidHOUTX 12:15 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting hydrus:wow.BRING IT ON!!! Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
 244. Some1Has2BtheRookie 12:16 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting Grothar:You are very unusual.LOL! .... What was the first clue? Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
 245. Some1Has2BtheRookie 12:18 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting RTSplayer:Actually, the first one is wrong anyway.The right hand limit is positive and the left hand is negative, so they diverge.Therefore the limit does not exist.Infinity != DNEInfinity is nothing but an 8 that fell over on to its side. ;-) Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
 246. TomTaylor 12:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting nymore: Your KP index (bar)chart shows what is happening now the CME people are talking about has not reached us yet. I expect it to hit at least a KP7 with a small chance at KP8 briefly. But this is just my best guess.It's supposed to reach us on March 8th at 0625 GMT (+/- 7hrs) so technically it could have hit us already as it is currently March 8 0019 GMT.Anyway, I doubt it will reach KP 8. I'd say KP6 to possibly 7. We shall see. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 247. Some1Has2BtheRookie 12:24 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting Grothar:It had Einstein stumped for years, too! It is a simple no-no in mathematics when you finally see the logic of what is wrong with the equation.Logic dictates that an equation would not have two variables with the same value. Einstein and I worked on a theory of every variable having the same value. "The Unified Theory of Variables". ;-) Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
 248. entrelac 12:24 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 A handy Aurora forecast linkUniversity of Alaska Aurora Forecast page Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
 249. Patrap 12:24 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Solar time is UTC.Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTCwww.solarham.comIncoming Full-Halo CMEIncoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.< Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322
 250. TomTaylor 12:26 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Quoting wxgeek723:High school the best years of your life!? I will gladly debate that.key word is some of the best years of your life. I didn't say they were the best years. Most people would probably say college in that case.I guess it depends who you are though. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896
 251. Patrap 12:27 AM GMT on March 08, 2012 Any Wunderground radar will have the UTC time as well as Local Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111322

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