Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012 +31
Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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251. Patrap 12:27 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Any Wunderground radar will have the UTC time as well as Local


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409
253. Xyrus2000 12:34 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting muddertracker:


I can't argue with any of that. It makes sense, and I fully support a parent's right to choose what is best for their children. I just get riled up when all teachers get lumped together as one "entity" that does nothing but teach to the test. (Although, I admit, that does happen in some places.)


I agree to a point (and I do homeschool my son). A parent should have the right to homeschool their children as long as they demonstrate that their children are being sufficiently educated.

While I agree that broad-stroking teachers with the same brush isn't accurate, the fact remains that our education system isn't doing such a good job. We've consistently placed below other developed nations in general education for years now. That being said, it isn't just the education system's fault. Social and economic factors have also acted as a drag on overall education levels as well.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
255. KoritheMan 12:44 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting kipperedherring:
Koritheman! I was deely saddened to hear of the turmoil in your retail career. I have heard from another blogger that you are planning on resuming your career in cosmetology. Is this true?


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
256. hurricanehunter27 12:45 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Solar time is UTC.




Updated 3/7/2012 @ 22:25 UTC


www.solarham.com


Incoming Full-Halo CME
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.



Arrival Time Update Please note that the expected arrival time of the plasma cloud will be between 0600-1000 UTC. This means sometime after 2am EST, we can expect the first signs of the incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.<
Ummmm...ahhhh...doom?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
257. PedleyCA 12:45 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Good to see you back. Was getting a bit dull around here.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2143
258. PedleyCA 12:46 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Grothar
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259. Some1Has2BtheRookie 12:48 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting PedleyCA:
Grothar


I thought that went without saying?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
260. hurricanehunter27 12:50 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.
Do you mind explaining exactly what happened?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
261. MAweatherboy1 12:56 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
I just finished a blog on current activity in the tropics and other weather news for anyone interested...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362
262. HadesGodWyvern 12:58 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KOJI, CATEGORY ONE (15U)
9:00 AM WST March 8 2012
=============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Koji, Category One (995 hPa) located at 15.6S 92.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.3S 89.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.7S 87.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.0S 83.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.9S 81.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=====================

Locating the system center by enhanced infrared imagery is difficult and there have been very few useful microwave passes overnight so the fix location is uncertain. The ASCAT pass at 1500 PM UTC indicated gales had wrapped a little over halfway around the system center. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 12 knots of northeasterly shear over the system.

Dvorak DT analysis can only be done with a shear pattern which yields a DT of 3.5 which is inconsistent with the MET of 2.5 and the AMSU/ADT/SATCON estimates. Final Dvorak is based on MET and final intensity is set at 35 knots. The system is named based on the evidence from ASCAT that the gales are wrapping more than half way around the center.

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Koji will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
263. Grothar 1:00 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting kipperedherring:
Good to hear from you Grothar! Welcome back!


Thanks, nice to be back.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
264. KoritheMan 1:01 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you mind explaining exactly what happened?


It was relatively minor compared to previous skirmishes, but sure. It was after 8:00 PM, I was working juice, so he told me to bring the whole pallet out to the floor because there'd be few customers for that to intrude on so late in the evening. Fair enough. The one thing he overlooked though, was that I only had a few boxes of freight left on the pallet at that point, so I bring them out on a cart instead. He starts with his usual attitude and "I'm better than you" tone, and says "You didn't bring out the pallet like I told you to." I said "Can't bring a pallet out with nothing on it."

Sometimes it isn't so much what they say (though it usually is), but how they say it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
265. Grothar 1:02 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Logic dictates that an equation would not have two variables with the same value. Einstein and I worked on a theory of every variable having the same value. "The Unified Theory of Variables". ;-)


Relatively speaking, of course.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
266. Grothar 1:03 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting PedleyCA:
Grothar


Pedley
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
267. Grothar 1:06 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meteorology actually, o_O.

But yeah, Walmart sucks. Had another manager complain to me yesterday, but I fought back this time. They want you to become their personal *****, and I'm not going to.

I'm leaving that cesspool as soon as I can. Count on it.


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
268. hurricanehunter27 1:07 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


It was relatively minor compared to previous skirmishes, but sure. It was after 8:00 PM, I was working juice, so he told me to bring the whole pallet out to the floor because there'd be few customers for that to intrude on so late in the evening. Fair enough. The one thing he overlooked though, was that I only had a few boxes of freight left on the pallet at that point, so I bring them out on a cart instead. He starts with his usual attitude and "I'm better than you" tone, and says "You didn't bring out the pallet like I told you to." I said "Can't bring a pallet out with nothing on it."

Sometimes it isn't so much what they say (though it usually is), but how they say it.
Ok I see. Well good luck.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
269. hurricanehunter27 1:08 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)
This made me laugh more than it should.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
270. KoritheMan 1:09 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Kori, you know I think the world of you. Just a little word of advice. Don't ever join the military. :)


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
271. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:09 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Relatively speaking, of course.


Invariably!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
272. hurricanehunter27 1:15 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
273. Grothar 1:16 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but in the military you expect to be their *****. Walmart's policy states the complete opposite.


Not really. The recruiter told me I could wear a nice uniform with shiny buttons and shoes; travel the world and see new people and exotic places all at their expense. We would get free meals and medical care.

What he didn't say is, that WE had to shine our buttons and shoes 4 times a day and the new people and exciting places we went to, the people wanted to shoot us. Just joking with you, Kori.

If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better any place else.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
274. KoritheMan 1:18 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.


You better believe I'd be pissed. Wow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
275. Grothar 1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.


Sounds terrible. Gee, I would never want to do anything like that. (you want to take this one, Rookie????)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
276. Grothar 1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Invariably!


All things being equal.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
277. KoritheMan 1:19 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    

Quoting Grothar:


If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better any place else.
Really? I think it would were I doing something I like. ala, weather forecasting.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
278. Patrap 1:22 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Mets age almost as fast as 27 yr old Rock Stars.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409
279. hurricanehunter27 1:23 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Sounds terrible. Gee, I would never want to do anything like that. (you want to take this one, Rookie????)
Done something similar. Went from Nairobi to Amsterdam to Paris to Atlanta in one straight run. Cant exactly tell you how much time was spent on that trip home. It was a blurr.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
280. Grothar 1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
We have been getting a lot of heavy downpours in Broward County. We need it. We haven't had a drop of rain in months on the coast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
281. Patrap 1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Anyone else have a power/cable brownout last 30 minutes?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409
282. MontanaZephyr 1:25 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Thanks for all the alerts and updates about the oncoming solar storm!

At 46 N Latitude, and a nice dark back yard at 5240 feet, with absolutely clear skies forecast, in rural Montana, this looks to be awesome.... too bad it is slated for the very INSTANT that the Full Moon Culminates.

Gah!
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283. Patrap 1:26 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Any flights over 6 hrs and I usually take the Kahlua Nap on...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409
284. Grothar 1:26 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
285. Grothar 1:30 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:

Really? I think it would were I doing something I like. ala, weather forecasting.


Well, you are good at it. We always enjoy reading your blogs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
286. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:30 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


All things being equal.


Yeah, that is what we were working on. Few people knew that this was actually the last theory he was working on. ... A "Unified Theory of Everything" would be a piece of cake, once a "Unified Theory of Variables" is found. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
287. Xyrus2000 1:31 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

High School is NOT easy, at least not mine. :P


High school IS easy. You won't grasp how easy it is until you're older. High school is the last years of life treating you with kid-gloves. Once you get to college, those gloves start coming off. After college, life puts on a pair of brass knuckles. With spikes.

Enjoy it while you can. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
288. Grothar 1:31 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Anyone else have a power/cable brownout last 30 minutes?


Only once. When Mrs. Grothar called me for dinner, and I was late.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
289. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:33 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Sounds terrible. Gee, I would never want to do anything like that. (you want to take this one, Rookie????)


LOL! ... No, not really. Do you remember the time I told you that sometimes is not what you say that counts? ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
290. washingtonian115 1:34 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


High school IS easy. You won't grasp how easy it is until you're older. High school is the last years of life treating you with kid-gloves. Once you get to college, those gloves start coming off. After college, life puts on a pair of brass knuckles. With spikes.

Enjoy it while you can. :)
I know thats right.Let me get a witness.
Quoting Grothar:


Only once. When Mrs. Grothar called me for dinner, and I was late.
LOL.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10637
291. Grothar 1:34 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


High school IS easy. You won't grasp how easy it is until your older. High school is the last years of life treating you with kid-gloves. Once you get to college, those gloves start coming off. After college, life puts on a pair of brass knuckles. With spikes.

Enjoy it while you can. :)


Wow, you must have had a rough life.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
292. hurricanehunter27 1:35 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


High school IS easy. You won't grasp how easy it is until you're older. High school is the last years of life treating you with kid-gloves. Once you get to college, those gloves start coming off. After college, life puts on a pair of brass knuckles. With spikes.

Enjoy it while you can. :)
One thing that will help you with that is doing well in High School. So do your best in school it will help you out later in life. I'm only a freshman but it seems to be the general story.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
293. Grothar 1:36 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! ... No, not really. Do you remember the time I told you that sometimes is not what you say that counts? ;-)


You're a pip, Rookie.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
294. Grothar 1:37 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yeah, that is what we were working on. Few people knew that this was actually the last theory he was working on. ... A "Unified Theory of Everything" would be a piece of cake, once a "Unified Theory of Variables" is found. ;-)


Is time travel possible?..............
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
295. CybrTeddy 1:37 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quite curious - does anyone have any speculations about when this Florida's day time thunderstorms might be popping up compared to last years? Was quite pathetic the last two years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240
296. Xyrus2000 1:39 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Had a friend who worked logistics for the US. He was stationed in GA at the time. So the story goes he had to go to meeting in Kuwait so they flew him out. It was a 18 hour flight. Atl to Germany to Kuwait. The meeting was 2 hours and they sent him back home. I could not imagine your reaction to something like that. So 36 hours on a plane (A bit less than that go to move around the airport in Germany for a while) for a 2 hour meeting. I myself would be beyond pissed.


Good to see that the military is a impervious to modern technology as they are to intelligence. At least they're consistent. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
297. weatherbro 1:40 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155
298. weatherbro 1:50 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting weatherbro:


Is that a UFO down at the bottom lol?


I doubt it cause of the heat. But I'm sure conspiracy theorists will jump all over it.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155
299. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:50 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Is time travel possible?..............


We will go forward in time 1 hour this weekend. Prepare for an earlier breakfast Sunday, in some sense of the words.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102
300. SPLbeater 1:58 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
HELLO
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
301. washingtonian115 2:00 AM GMT on March 08, 2012    
The kids are gonna hate waking up earlier for school :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10637

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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