Tornado, hail, and torrential rains hammer Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2012

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A waterspout made landfall on the Hawaiian island of Oahu Friday morning on the east shore town, becoming a rare Hawaiian tornado as it moved through the towns of Lanikai and Kailua. The twister, rated an EF-0 with winds of 60 - 70 mph, tore holes in roofs and downed trees along a 1 1/2 mile long, 20-yard wide path of damage. No injuries were reported. The same storm also brought golf ball sized hail raining down for about 45 minutes on Oahu. The islands have seen intense rains over the past week, thanks to a 1040 mb blocking high pressure system near 40°N, to the NNW of the island that forced a companion cutoff low near 25°N 165°W to stay put, bringing a series of heavy storms to the islands. Rainfall amounts over the past week have exceeded three feet in some locations. The resulting flooding forced the governor on Wednesday to declare two islands, Oahu and Kauai, disaster areas. The latest forecasts for Kauai and Oahu call for sporadic rains to continue over the weekend, followed by a drying trend during the coming week.


Video 1. On March 5, 2012, flooding rains of 3" per hour caused this creek to overflow the Loop Road on Kauai and wash away a pickup truck that tried to cross. The occupants evacuated safely.

Here are some select rainfall amounts over the past week, from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1155 AM HST FRI MAR 9 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SLAM HAWAII IN THE PAST WEEK...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO MOST ISLANDS THE PAST WEEK...AS IT INTERACTED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE FOLLOWING REPRESENTS 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS...FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH
2 THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH 9.

KAUAI
HANALEI 45.97
WAINIHA POWER HOUSE 43.84
KAPAHI 32.66
MOUNT WAIALEALE RAINGAGE 31.32
LIHUE AIRPORT 13.59

OAHU
OAHU FOREST NWR 39.65
MOANALUA - USGS - USGS 36.42
PUNALUU STREAM - USGS 31.46
WILSON TUNNEL 25.05
LULUKU 22.25
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER 20.47
HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.54

MOLOKAI
MOLOKAI AIRPORT 2.74

MAUI
PUU KUKUI - USGS 16.70
KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.34

HAWAII
HILO AIRPORT 5.97


Video 2. Damage from the March 9, 2012 tornado on Oahu.

Hawaii's tornado history
Tornadoes are rare in Hawaii. According to the Tornado History Project, only 39 tornadoes have hit the state since 1950, an average of one tornado every 1.5 years. The strongest tornadoes to hit the state occurred in 1982, when a series of three F-2 twisters struck Oahu in February and March. Those months are the most frequent months for tornadoes, with 44% of the total. No one has ever been killed in a Hawaiian tornado, but six people have been injured.

Jeff Masters

Hawaii Hail (IslandStyle15)
Rare Hawaii hailstorm to be remembered
Hawaii Hail
Not A good day in Paradise (xJrhouckx)
Hawaii has had ping pong ball size hail and major flooding this week.
Not A good day in Paradise
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua (Uwekalani)
When the heavens weep, the earth lives. Notice the color of the center falls. Taken from below the Pali Lookout. Many drivers pulled into the overlook to admire these amazing waterfalls.
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua

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63. Skyepony (Mod)
That letter is very Napoleon Dynamite.

Local news was talking about a low forming off east FL. Not seeing it on NWS. Looked more likely earlier on radar. Maybe the gradient setting up disrupted it.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 38129
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If (Big if) ENSO ends up to be Neutral by Summer and Fall,here is a graphic that shows how many landfalls have occured in the U.S from 1980 thru 2009.



Landfalls in the U.S when El Nino was around from 1980 thru 2009.


Poor Florida, they got hit hard either way.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
If (Big if) ENSO ends up to be Neutral by Summer and Fall,here is a graphic that shows how many landfalls have occured in the U.S from 1980 thru 2009.



Landfalls in the U.S when El Nino was around from 1980 thru 2009.

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Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters

That. Was. Hilarious.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters


That is hilarious! What a imagination that kid has lol
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Based off radar imagery, looks like a training effect may be shaping up for SE TX. I haven't looked at any of the upper level winds yet though.


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Sounds like the kid nas been reading a little to much of Armageddon. Maybe he is John Jr.
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Those of you who live in places where summer is hot, but not "Texas hot" might want to think about the European heat wave of 2003. More than 40,000 people died from the effects of heat.

From Wiki -

"In France, there were 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health.[4][5] France does not commonly have very hot summers, particularly in the northern areas,[6] but seven days with temperatures of more than 40 °C (104 °F) were recorded in Auxerre, Yonne between July and August 2003. Because of the usually relatively mild summers, most people did not know how to react to very high temperatures (for instance, with respect to rehydration), and most single-family homes and residential facilities built in the last 50 years were not equipped with air conditioning. Furthermore, while there were contingency plans for a variety of natural and man-made catastrophes, high temperatures had never been considered a major hazard."

Hot summers not common, people didn't know how to cope.

Might be a good idea to check with your local governmental agencies to see if they have heat wave emergency plans at hand.

Weather weirdness is upon us....
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Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters

Lol- That's great!
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While the next 2 weeks will be dominated by wamrth for many, the cold air is definitely on a mission to come back... Notice how it eats away at that big area of warmth between the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks




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Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters

Haha, that's awesome.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters
If that's legitimate, it's awesome! Heck, even if it's fake, it's still awesome. Thanks!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
51. JeffMasters (Admin)
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters
There is forecast to be a huge area of positive temperature anomalies next week in the >20, >25, and even >30 degree range. Not that it will happen, but imagine the, er, discomfort were such anomalies to occur in the same area in summer. That would mean average highs in, say, Minneapolis of around 110, and average lows in the upper 80s. Many climate scientists predict that such heat waves bringing such temperatures will become more common toward the latter parts of this century, but I think--I hope--nothing like that happens anytime soon...

Anyway, these maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
New record high here in Minot, ND today. 63 Deg.
Still can`t wait to get back to the Gulf.
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Statement as of 2:45 am HST on March 10, 2012

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Lihue hi...

a record rainfall of 3.63 inch(es) was set at Lihue hi yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 3.46 set in 1950.

One of several recent daily records at Lihue - on the not especially rainy side of Kaua'i. Hawaii Record Event Reports. Kahului, also mentioned, is not on a rainiest side of Maui.
Quoting FatPenguin:
Those amounts in Kauai almost seem too big to be accurate. I know the mountain there is one of the wettest places on earth, but to get that amount lower down is unreal.

Wonder if that's a 7-day record for rainfall?
Well, that sent me off searching and here's what I found:

At Mt. Waialeale, on Kauai, the annual average reaches the extraordinary total of 486 inches - over 40 feet. This is the highest recorded annual average in the world.
~Climate of Hawaii from the Western Regional Climate Center.

That web page is more like a book (lol) so I have not read it, the whole page, thoroughly. Here's an excerpt from the section on "Rainfall Intensities."

...Extreme rainfall intensities are high in Hawaii. To take the most extreme instance of record, during the storm of January 24-25, 1956, over 38 inches of rain fell at the Plantation Office, Kilauea Sugar Plantation, Kauai, within a 24-hour period, out of a storm total of 43.5 inches. During the same storm six inches of rain fell during a single 30-minute period and about 12 inches fell in one hour. The 38-inch value for 24- hours is conservatively low, because the gage was already overflowing when it was emptied for the first time. The six-inch value is correct within one or two tenths of an inch; the 12-inch value for one hour is an estimate only - again because of overflow - and may be in error by as much as an inch.

Rainfall intensities and totals as high as the extraordinary values just cited appear to have occurred when a current or moist, unstable air, converges as it moves up a narrowing valley, and at the same time is forced to rise abruptly over steep mountains. Such special topographic circumstances are not essential to the occurrences of torrential rains. In November 1931 Moanalua, Ohau received 15.2 inches of rain within three hours; Hana, Maui has had as much as 28 inches of rain in 24 hours; Opaeula, Oahu, 26 inches; and Hilo 19 inches, even though none of these are favorably situated with references to topographic surroundings conducive to the occurrence of very high rainfall intensities. In fact, the most copious rains in Hawaii frequently do not occur in localities having the greatest average rainfall; nor is it uncommon during such storms for relatively dry areas to receive within a single day, or even a few hours, totals approaching their mean annual rainfall.
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Well Thanks for this interesting Blog Dr. Masters.

As I was thinking a while back, how long before these weather anomalies stop grabbing the news and just become a normal day?
So its really warm over the south of North America at the moment! The winter has failed and now possibly for the first time with "public global weather awareness,"maybe,just maybe,the average person in the street might just start asking if something unusual might be going on?
We have no infuence of what happens on the surface of the sun but its going to have a big influence on what happens on the surface of planet Earth this year for sure!
March 10; I wonder what we'll be arguing about on June 10?

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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 3:00 PM EST Saturday 10 March 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.44 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 32.9°F
Dewpoint: 14.2°F
Humidity: 46 %
Wind: S 14 mph
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Global D-Region Absorption

Global D-Region Absorption Prediction


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for miy region Normals
Max: 39°F
Min: 23°F
for this time of year
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milder temps on the rtn
as freeze line lifts east and north
mini cool snap is done
we will not fall to freeze line tonight
tomorrow we should reach highs of 60 or more
thats 16c on the metric scale normals are around 3c
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Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 10, 2012

Sunspot 1429 produced another strong solar flare, this time an M8.4 event at 17:44 UTC on March 10, 2012.

A bright CME was generated as well. This video shows various movies and images by SDO, EVE and STEREO Ahead COR2.

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Quoting KeyWestSun:
This is hard to get over. Look at this warmth across the Lower 48 for this upcoming week into the early realm of next week.

Sat 59
Sun 60
Mon 73
Tue 59
Wed 73
Thu 58
Fri 63

These are predicted highs for Chicago, a city that boasts a measly 44 degree average high for this time of year.

click to enlarge


This coming warm spell looks to be truly exceptional. For my area - Montreal, Quebec - I've looked at the records dating back to 1942 and only one year, 1946 - is slightly worthy of rivalling this one. However, the one from 1946 had a couple of days below 10C.

Now, the forecast calls for temperatures at or above 12C for the next 12 days! Truly astonishing when you consider it's still mid-march and the average is in the mid-30s F or 1-3 degrees C.

Another fascinating aspect of this warm spell is the sheer size of the area affected. Included are the whole of the U.S. plains and midwest, almost all of Ontario, the southern half of Quebec, the maritime provinces of Canada and then down the eastern seaboard.

WOW!
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 362
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 1818 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1729 UTC

Comment: Associated with M8 event from Rgn 1429 (N18W23)
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

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Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 87
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 1835 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1715 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1744 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1830 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.4
Location: N18W23
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment: No optical reports from ground stations. Location verified through GOES-15 SXI imagery
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've kind of been neglecting tomorrow's threat as it looked like it wouldn't be that big of a day, but new model runs coming in suggest there could be a bigger threat than I previously thought. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the Ark-La-Tex region in a Slight risk of Severe Weather, with a 30% area for the northern portion of this risk. While instability will be a limiting factor tomorrow (less than 1000j/kg), the wind profiles across Arkansas are insane, to the point of having the possibility of one or two strong tornadoes. In addition to the tornado threat, bowing line segments seem likely.






I know i missed a day or 2 of weather but i was not expecting this!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it will likely stay a Slight risk area...no Moderate.

I will say though that if we had a more defined initiator and more instability, things would be quite different.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
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Quoting KeyWestSun:

Interesting. That NAM sounding graphic doesn't really do the slight (30%) risk justice... Any chance at an upgrade by the SPC either later this afternoon or tomorrow morning?

No, it will likely stay a Slight risk area...no Moderate.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
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1.85" so far and wait'n' on next round tomm
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Added 3/10/2012 @ 17:40 UTC

Sunspot 1429 Flares Again


Sunspot 1429 is back at it again, this time with a strong M8.4 Solar Flare peaking at 17:44 UTC. This event triggered and R2 Level Radio Blackout and a Type IV Sweep Frequency Event was detected as well. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and is most likely headed this way. Stay Tuned for more information, videos and pictures.



You can also follow this website and all of the latest solar news on SolarHam Facebook by clicking "LIKE".
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goood day wunderground thanks for update doc

strange weather indeed

this week will feel like early summer

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just woke up about hr now i see flare again on the wane now
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from SolarHam.com


I can now confirm that a bright Coronal Mass Ejection was produced and is now fully visible in the new STEREO-A COR2 images. This should be directed our way.



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I think that we will be needed to revise our understanding of "average" as this year continues to unfold...
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Quoting KeyWestSun:
This is hard to get over. Look at this warmth across the Lower 48 for this upcoming week into the early realm of next week.

Sat 59
Sun 60
Mon 73
Tue 59
Wed 73
Thu 58
Fri 63

These are predicted highs for Chicago, a city that boasts a measly 44 degree average high for this time of year.


It's not possible to predict how this summer's temps are going to turn out, but if you were thinking about more insulation for your house or replacing a crummy AC unit you might want to get around to that early.

If we have the "Summer of Summers" following the "Winter of No Winter" there may be a long wait go get someone to do your job.

And, remember, efficiency is almost always the less expensive option....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.