March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Chicklit:
Jim Pettit says:

March 11, 2012 at 10:02 am

Oh, JB is always good for a laugh. Or he would be if so many of the gullible weren’t so easily swayed by his (mis)use of terms like “specific gravity” and “radiative processes”; the man is held in very high regard in denialist circles.

I am at turns both awed and dismayed–sometimes simultaneously–at his ability to make one unapologetically wrong weather or climate forecast after another. Though I think I have him figured out. The comedian Robin Williams once said that he developed his own rapid-fire delivery because he knew that by the time the audience would realize one joke was a stinker, he’d already be on to the next one. And I think that’s how Bastardi practices forecasting; promise the denialists that the global cooldown will begin next month, for instance, but by the time next month arrives and that cooldown fails to materialize, begin promising that it will happen next month so they’ll forget all about this month’s failure.

Well, that’s my theory.

Anyway, JB’s March 2 tweet about the whole Limbaugh/Sandra Fluke thing pretty much tells someone all they need to know about his mindset and character: “Heard male applications to Georgetown are going through the roof.”

++++++ love this. Thanks Jim, keep fighting.
Your not suppose to give out Neapolitan's real name. You should remove it from your post.
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Tonight's Graph, brought to you by, FRESCA and Bill Maher



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting SPLbeater:


i know that Ocrapa said he would incease employment.

it declined.

he said the economy would begin climbing back.

it didnt.

he says he is US citizen, that is BULLCRAP. his birth certificate for the US is forgery.

Hopefully, Santorum will be able to claim #45. thats who im prayin for :)


Obama's birth certificate is dubious, yes. But I think there is insufficient evidence to claim it as forgery. Though personally, if I had to take sides, it would be the one which paints him as a US citizen. Personally, I think one of the main reasons no one likes Barack is because he doesn't give religion special treatment. To my knowledge, he was the only United States president to openly acknowledge the existence of nonbelievers and members of other religions (whereas Bush's father openly declared the former group as not being citizens). Therefore, they find any excuse they can to make him look bad. Poisoning the well, as they call it.

Anyway, I never said Obama is a good president. He's not the greatest. But I think he far exceeds Bush. What a slouch he was.

Though he has no chance, I'd prefer Ron Paul to win.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 599 Comments: 21175
Quoting yqt1001:


Err, the economy has been getting better? Dunno what type of propaganda FOX is feeding you, but I doubt that a UK news source would really have a huge bias on US news.


And gas prices have come down in my area. Still hurts, but have come down.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11456
Quoting SPLbeater:


i know that Ocrapa said he would incease employment.

it declined.

he said the economy would begin climbing back.

it didnt.

he says he is US citizen, that is BULLCRAP. his birth certificate for the US is forgery.

Hopefully, Santorum will be able to claim #45. thats who im prayin for :)



Seriously, listen to Kori, although there is a lot about Obama I am HIGHLY against, he is most certainly a U.S. citizen. If Fox news told you he is not, well, that's why Fox News isn't to be hailed.


Furthermore, Santorum is essentially a right winged version of Obama, which is just as scary in a different way. Really, the possibility of Santorum as president of this nation really scares me, as would Newt Gingrich.

Santorum is everything that we didn't like about Bush, and more, if that's possible, lol.


But, this is not a political blog, so I won't get into it even further, besides I'm normally a very happy person but politics somehow is the one thing that always gets me angry if I stay on the subject for more than a brief time.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
man what am i doing...stupid SPL. engaging in a political discussion that doesnt do a bit of good to anybody. and certainly doesnt help the lurkers wanting info.

......The ECMWF bombs 95S out to roung 965mb while making landfall in NW australia.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Patrap:
Deadly Tornadoes Created Strange Seismic Waves
OurAmazingPlanet Staff - Mar 08, 2012






Who would have known.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i know that Ocrapa said he would incease employment.

it declined.

he said the economy would begin climbing back.

it didnt.

he says he is US citizen, that is BULLCRAP. his birth certificate for the US is forgery.

Hopefully, Santorum will be able to claim #45. thats who im prayin for :)


Err, the economy has been getting better? Dunno what type of propaganda FOX is feeding you, but I doubt that a UK news source would really have a huge bias on US news. Also, Obama is a US citizen. You guys annexed Hawaii in the 1800s and he was born when Hawaii was officially a US state...
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Jim Pettit says:

March 11, 2012 at 10:02 am

Oh, JB is always good for a laugh. Or he would be if so many of the gullible weren’t so easily swayed by his (mis)use of terms like “specific gravity” and “radiative processes”; the man is held in very high regard in denialist circles.

I am at turns both awed and dismayed–sometimes simultaneously–at his ability to make one unapologetically wrong weather or climate forecast after another. Though I think I have him figured out. The comedian Robin Williams once said that he developed his own rapid-fire delivery because he knew that by the time the audience would realize one joke was a stinker, he’d already be on to the next one. And I think that’s how Bastardi practices forecasting; promise the denialists that the global cooldown will begin next month, for instance, but by the time next month arrives and that cooldown fails to materialize, begin promising that it will happen next month so they’ll forget all about this month’s failure.

Well, that’s my theory.

Anyway, JB’s March 2 tweet about the whole Limbaugh/Sandra Fluke thing pretty much tells someone all they need to know about his mindset and character: “Heard male applications to Georgetown are going through the roof.”

++++++ love this. Thanks Jim, keep fighting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
FOX is the best news station out there. they dont support Ocrapa, thats the best


That's a wonderful rationale.....
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Deadly Tornadoes Created Strange Seismic Waves
OurAmazingPlanet Staff - Mar 08, 2012




The deadly storms that struck the Midwest and South last week were so strong that they created seismic waves.

One of the twisters that struck southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois on Feb. 29 passed through a seismic detection array that includes more than 100 state-of-the-art digital seismographs across the U.S. heartland. While seismographs have been known to detect seismic activity related to tornadoes, it is highly unusual to have the instruments recording information so close to a tornado, the researchers said.

"In examining the seismograms, we recorded unusual seismic signals on three of our stations in southern Illinois," said Michael Hamburger, a geologist at Indiana University and one of the researchers conducting the experiment. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. [local time] on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."


The seismographs that detected the pulse are near Harrisburg, Ill., a town of 9,000 where a pre-dawn EF-4 strength twister caused extensive damage, killed six people and injured about 100 more.

The researchers initially thought that some of the instruments might be damaged by the storm, but after the twisters passed they were still alive and streaming data. A closer look at the data from these instruments showed the strange "tornado seismograms" that were recorded on seismographs near Harrisburg.

A seismic pressure gradient associated with the tornado produced a slow, minute tilting of the seismograph that lasted for several minutes, Hamburger said. This sort of pressure-related signal may help scientists better understand atmospheric activity that takes place right before tornadoes touch down, he said. The research team is now looking to compare recordings with other tornado-related signals and to dig deeper into the analysis.

The seismic experiment, dubbed "OIINK" for its geographic coverage in parts of the Ozarks, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky, includes the positioning of 120 seismometers to study earthquakes and geological structure in a key area of North America. They are recording thousands of earthquakes from the study area and around the world, as well as nearby mining and quarry explosions.

Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter @OAPlanet and on Facebook.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Greenland Ice Sheet May Melt Completely With 1.6 Degrees of Global Warming

ScienceDaily (Mar. 12, 2012) — The Greenland ice sheet is likely to be more vulnerable to global warming than previously thought. The temperature threshold for melting the ice sheet completely is in the range of 0.8 to 3.2 degrees Celsius of global warming, with a best estimate of 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, shows a new study by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Today, already 0.8 degrees of global warming has been observed. Substantial melting of land ice could contribute to long-term sea-level rise of several meters and therefore it potentially affects the lives of many millions of people.

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/1203 12003232.htm
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Fox News viewers less informed than those who don’t watch news at all: study
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11456
National advertising on the Rush Limbaugh show has been suspended for two weeks.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11456
Quoting SPLbeater:
FOX is the best news station out there. they dont support Ocrapa, thats the best


No offense, but I doubt you know much about Obama or his policies. I didn't know the first thing about politics, much less politicians, when I was your age.

I'm not trying to be harsh, because you're a good kid. I'm just saying.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 599 Comments: 21175
Japan's disaster as bad as or worse than Chernobyl
Updated: 2012-03-12 14:30

VANCOUVER - The severity of Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster may be as bad as or worse than Chernobyl, an American nuclear expert warned Sunday.

Arnold Gundersen, a former nuclear power industry executive, said it was clear to him within two days of the Japan earthquake and tsunami that "Fukushima was as bad as or worse than Chernobyl."

"We call that a level 7, which is as high as the scale goes," he said from his Vermont base via teleconference to delegates of a seminar entitled "The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster -- One Year Later."

Gundersen has publicly questioned the safety in a number of nuclear reactors around the globe and was an expert witness in the investigation of the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor disaster in the US state of Pennsylvania in 1979.

Gundersen, now chief engineer of the energy consulting company Fairewinds Associates, said he believed that Fukushima was 10 times worse than the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown in the former Soviet Union. Now it is in Ukraine.

Chernobyl was a single reactor running at about 7 percent capacity when ruptured, while Fukushima, about 275 km north of Tokyo, had three reactors running at 100 percent capacity and seven other reactors with spent fuel pools that were crippled, said Gundersen.

In addition, the battery-powered diesel generators along the ocean that cooled the reactors and were supposed to kick in during an emergency were destroyed, he added.

"Even if the diesels had survived (the quake and tsunami), there was no way to keep the (reactor) core cool. This is known as Loss of Ultimate Heat Sync (UHS), the most serious global issue relating to this incident, he said.

UHS is effectively the unlimited amount of water that is needed by nuclear power plants to cool down vital systems to contain them in the worst accidents.

Chernobyl stopped releasing radioactive material after about two weeks, said Gundersen, but this is not the case at Fukushima one year on.

If there were any positives to the Fukushima disaster, he said, the wind was mostly blowing out to sea at the time of the accident.

The bad news is large quantities of cesium 137, a radioactive material, has been found in abnormal amounts in the cedar trees of the surrounding mountains of the plant and "revolatalized into the atmosphere".

"Also, the cesium is being washed into rivers and the rivers, of course, are heading toward the ocean. But we are seeing contamination in freshwater fish as well as ocean fish as a result of all the run-off," he said.

"Large cesium deposits (are also being found) on the bottom of the river bed that gets picked up by weeds and seaweed in the ocean that then gets eaten by other fish and mollusks and work their way up the food chain," Gundersen added.

Although there have been no deaths related to the Fukushima meltdown to date, over the next 20 years there would be about 1 million additional cancers and other health problems from the accident, said Gundersen.

"The further you get away from Fukushima, the less people think their lives are affected," he said.

"But even in Tokyo most people think it is over and they survived it. But with the latency periods of these cancers it's going to pop up 20 years out and people will wonder where it came from," said Gundersen.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
FOX is the best news station out there. they dont support Ocrapa, thats the best



Well that's the thing, there is a lot of crap on Fox that isn't exactly intellectually stimulating, but somehow the other stations are even worse...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Quoting Chicklit:
Okay, 10th largest, but how about when it happened? I'll bet it's the worst early season tornadic event in history.



Again, our "history" is very limited. Population increases and all that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 599 Comments: 21175
Quoting ScottLincoln:


He's involved in a rather interesting back-and-forth on Joe Romm's blog (linked above). Sad to say, but it get's worse than the snippets. The people he uses as sources, the things he says, it's worse. It's almost unbelievable.



It's one of those pictures you can't unsee. It's burned into your retinas forever, kinda like the disturbing scientific nonsense he comes up with.



Interesting, I didn't even realize that was Bastardi at first in the image till you mentioned this comment, I decided then to take a second look at the image. It makes the picture even scarier! lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Okay, 10th largest, but how about when it happened? I'll bet it's the worst early season tornadic event in history.

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349. txjac
Quoting Patrap:
Northern lights impact from North Frame on Vimeo.


Georgous ...wish I lived somewhere where I could see these!
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Some very good reading about CO2 gas
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Northern lights impact from North Frame on Vimeo.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Skyepony:
5 Horses Dead, Others Saved After Tornado

So sad for the horses that lost their lives.
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Quoting nigel20:

FOX uses such claims by people such as bastardi to try to convine people that climate change is not happening



I don't know, the article seemed to indicate opposition to GW, not necessarily climate change.

Just because Co2 causes a green house effect doesn't mean the Earth's Climate will just warm continuously through the century with added CO2 from humans...

Although the article also suggests there has been recent Global Cooling, which would be just a TAD bit in direct opposition to Global Temp data. Unless the scientists releasing the data are all lying, which I'm gonna go with a no. That would be pretty pathetic... lol



I'm not really sure why Bastardi is bothering to claim there is Global Cooling. If he took a more honest rout by challenging what the future of human effects on Climate will be and where the climate will continue to head, it would make more sense. Instead he is taking the route of fabrication, which only people who are apposed to scientists in general would believe. For some reason there are A LOT of them here in the U.S.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Quoting Neapolitan:
As mentioned already, Climate Progress yesterday had an excellent write-up about Bastardi's claim that CO2 doesn't cause warming. If you've got the time, be sure to read the comments section, particularly the part where JB responds and proceeds to digger a deeper hole for himself each time he does so, such as he when he proclaims that "air is impervious to IR".

Oh, dear me.


Trust me, I tried to laugh, I really did, but it was so ridiculous it hurt. Mostly because media actually lets him speak on this issue, and many eat it right up. And he really thinks he is like the new Galileo that people are trying to censor. So by that point of realization, I can't laugh... I instead feel sad for him that he really sees the world that way.
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Densities of Common Elements and Compounds
Substance
Density
grams per mL
Hydrogen gas
0.000089
Helium gas
0.00018
Air
0.00128
Carbon Dioxide
0.001977

Water
1.00
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..somewhere a weatherbell is missing a clapper, seems
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still a serious flooding situation ongoing in Louisiana.


Luckily it is starting to wind down, although it will take some time before all that water drains away or evaporates. Some of the aerial images are rather crazy... so many whole neighborhoods under water, many not near a major stream or river.
Looks like Bayou Vermillion at Carencro is near crest, but might continue to rise very slowly as the water makes its way into the waterways over the next day or so. I'm certainly glad that it didn't beat our forecast of 22-23ft... much beyond that and you have a 10-mile wide basin filled with water between the ridge area of Carencro and the ridge of Bayou Teche. Hundreds of homes in that basin.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


FOX just makes people stupider.

Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8358
Quoting Skyepony:
Bastardi was on Fox News yesterday..



BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I%u2019ll tell you why. It doesn%u2019t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot %u2014 it literally cannot cause global warming.

Asked about Bastardi%u2019s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: %u201CUtter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.%u201D NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: %u201CBastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.%u201D %u201CHe seems very confused,%u201D said physicist Richard Muller.

Bastardi may be hoping that when delivered confidently, terms like %u201Cspecific gravity%u201D and %u201Cradiative processes%u201D can convince Fox%u2019s viewers that he knows what he%u2019s talking about. But don%u2019t be fooled; he is again garbling the very basics of climate science. Schmidt explained:

Bastardi doesn%u2019t understand the first thing about the greenhouse effect %u2013 it has absolutely nothing to do with the %u2018specific gravity%u2019 of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas, it has to do with the fact that GHGs absorb and radiate infra-red heat and in doing so warm the surface of the Earth.

Bastardi went on to claim that %u201Cthe entire globe has cooled quite a bit.%u201D more here..
As mentioned already, Climate Progress yesterday had an excellent write-up about Bastardi's claim that CO2 doesn't cause warming. If you've got the time, be sure to read the comments section, particularly the part where JB responds and proceeds to digger a deeper hole for himself each time he does so, such as he when he proclaims that "air is impervious to IR".

Oh, dear me.
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337. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:57 AM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 12.0S 127.8E or 340 km west of Darwin and 305 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning as it turns towards the southeast and moves closer to the coast. It is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats early Wednesday morning. Gales may develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone continues on its southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Area that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 12.4S 128.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.9S 129.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.6S 131.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.9S 134.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be drifting slowly toward the south in the Timor Sea west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix remains poor, based on infrared animation, microwave and peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure has improved with a weakly curved band evident in the western sectors. Dvorak analysis yields FT=2.0 based on MET and PAT. Development rate has been slow under the influence of easterly vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment appears to be favorable for continuing development at the standard rate with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge evident in the Banda Sea. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast later today, reaching the coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting Skyepony:
Bastardi was on Fox News yesterday..



BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I%u2019ll tell you why. It doesn%u2019t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot %u2014 it literally cannot cause global warming.

Asked about Bastardi%u2019s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: %u201CUtter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.%u201D NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: %u201CBastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.%u201D %u201CHe seems very confused,%u201D said physicist Richard Muller.

Bastardi may be hoping that when delivered confidently, terms like %u201Cspecific gravity%u201D and %u201Cradiative processes%u201D can convince Fox%u2019s viewers that he knows what he%u2019s talking about. But don%u2019t be fooled; he is again garbling the very basics of climate science. Schmidt explained:

Bastardi doesn%u2019t understand the first thing about the greenhouse effect %u2013 it has absolutely nothing to do with the %u2018specific gravity%u2019 of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas, it has to do with the fact that GHGs absorb and radiate infra-red heat and in doing so warm the surface of the Earth.

Bastardi went on to claim that %u201Cthe entire globe has cooled quite a bit.%u201D more here..


He's involved in a rather interesting back-and-forth on Joe Romm's blog (linked above). Sad to say, but it get's worse than the snippets. The people he uses as sources, the things he says, it's worse. It's almost unbelievable.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Why did you post that picture may I ask? Its quite disturbing...


It's one of those pictures you can't unsee. It's burned into your retinas forever, kinda like the disturbing scientific nonsense he comes up with.
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Quoting nigel20:

FOX uses such claims by people such as bastardi to try to convine people that climate change is not happening


FOX just makes people stupider.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 599 Comments: 21175
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know of a more disturbing picture would you like to see it i know press would



You can probably keep it to yourself, though I must admit there is a part of me that's also a bit curious, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Quoting Skyepony:
Bastardi was on Fox News yesterday..



BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming.

Asked about Bastardi’s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: “Utter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.” NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: “Bastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.” “He seems very confused,” said physicist Richard Muller.

Bastardi may be hoping that when delivered confidently, terms like “specific gravity” and “radiative processes” can convince Fox’s viewers that he knows what he’s talking about. But don’t be fooled; he is again garbling the very basics of climate science. Schmidt explained:

Bastardi doesn’t understand the first thing about the greenhouse effect – it has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘specific gravity’ of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas, it has to do with the fact that GHGs absorb and radiate infra-red heat and in doing so warm the surface of the Earth.

Bastardi went on to claim that “the entire globe has cooled quite a bit.” more here..

FOX uses such claims by people such as bastardi to try to convine people that climate change is not happening
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8358
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think Paul is just sadistic like that.


Apparently, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Quoting Jedkins01:


Why did you post that picture may I ask? Its quite disturbing...
i know of a more disturbing picture would you like to see it i know press would
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
Nice weather down here in West Palm. A lot of rain yesterday. Nice temps for the upcoming week.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11456
Quoting Jedkins01:


Why did you post that picture may I ask? Its quite disturbing...


I think Paul is just sadistic like that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 599 Comments: 21175
The Computer, Genetics & the Brain.

So what is the future of mankind? What is going to happen to our brain when the computer and robot take over, and when the great industries invent all these machineries of ultra intelligent machines, and you, what is your future as a human being? You understand my question? This is happening.
And they are going to do it in the Future, for commercial reasons etc. So they are acting from the outside on the human brain - you understand? Through bio-chemistry, genetics, through electric currents and so on. From the outside. And they may change our conditioning - from the outside. And probably they will............
And if we pursue our life, our daily life, as we are living now, year after year until we die, as vast millions and billions of people are doing, they are not contributing anything to the whole collective consciousness of man. But if you and a few of us basically, fundamentally bring about a mutation in the conditioning of the brain, which means in the very brain cells themselves and that is possible only when we are aware of our conditioning, meet it head on, fear, all the faiths and the dogmas, the stupid rituals, fears, pleasures, sorrow, of which we are. If there is no mutation we will be contributing to the ugliness of mankind.
So there is only one choice for us, only one direction for us...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting presslord:


Why did you post that picture may I ask? Its quite disturbing...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Quoting Patrap:
Astrophysicist Dr. Neil DeGrasse Tyson was asked in an interview with TIME magazine, "What is the most astounding fact you can share with us about the Universe?" This is his answer.


The Most Astounding Fact from Max Schlickenmeyer on Vimeo.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
Quoting yqt1001:


My day pwns yours. :P


Went to bed at 1am.
Woke up at 5:30 and grumpily got ready for the trip to the airport. Arrived at the airport at 6am.
Took off for Toronto at 6:55am. Landed in Toronto at 8:30am.
Walked a kilometer or so to a hospital for an appointment at 2pm; but we arrived at 10am. :P
Got squeezed in at 10:20am to endure an operation that I've been stressing about for a few days; came out of there absolutely miserable.
Walked a few blocks (not that bad, but when you are TIRED to death and just endured an operation awake, the last thing you want to do is walk :P ) to catch a bus for 11:00am.
Arrived here where I am now at 12:30pm.
Relaxed for the afternoon :D and formed Germany in Europa Universalis 3! :D
Walked a few more blocks to have pizza at a pizzeria and then walked back after dinner.

There were a few things that happened after dinner that is sorta worth noting; but I'm too tired to really bother with them. :P Still staying up until 1am tonight! No one is taking my march break from me this easily!


i dont get a school break. the next day i have off if when i get out of 8th grade. (53 days)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
324. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting aspectre:
Sky pony...

...above Tenby,Pembrokeshire,Wales


That's a beautiful one..
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323. Skyepony (Mod)
5 Horses Dead, Others Saved After Tornado
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Off topic but here is a cool interactive scale from NASA
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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