March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?
The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:
262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999
Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.
Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.
The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.
If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.
Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.
Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:
"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.
The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.
Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.
We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."
An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 — Blog Index
good ta hear!
i have recently figured out how to copy and paste text lol. i told yal i wasnt a computer person...xD
Here's a hint.. it was HUGE!
1993 Storm of the Century
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
LMZ644>646-669-671-673-675-121745-
/O.CON.KMKX.MA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120312T1745Z/
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI...
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI...
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE...
AT 1158 AM CDT...THE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL FROM 9 NM NORTHEAST OF NORTH PT. LT. TO 7 NM
WEST OF WIND PT....MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN
CALEDONIA...WHICH IS HALFWAY BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE.
THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.
&&
LAT...LON 4307 8788 4310 8789 4362 8737 4363 8729
4343 8724 4274 8730 4266 8780 4272 8777
4275 8779 4280 8777 4286 8785 4297 8785
4302 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 217DEG 40KT 4320 8768 4310 8768
4279 8787
WIND...HAIL 65KNOTS >.75IN
$$
MRC
with the radar to refresh your memory :D
False return.
Posted: Mar 12, 2012 5:09 AM CDT Updated: Mar 12, 2012 11:34 AM CDT
CARENCRO, La. (AP) - Strong thunderstorms flooded Carencro, with water reported in at least 10 houses and about 15 children evacuated from a daycare center to City Hall.
The Advertiser reports that water was at least waist-deep in most streets in the heart of Carencro on Monday.
Clie Guidry said parents picked up about half the children at her daycare center before streets flooded Monday morning. She got the rest to City Hall as a precaution.
Louisiana State Police closed Interstate 49 between Lafayette and Opelousas.
The severe weather also caused damage in different parts of Louisiana overnight, but no injuries were reported.
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles reports a tree fell on a house in Jennings.
Okay thanks. No matter anyway, I was just shocked, wondered what happened lol.
1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW ARNAUDVILLE 30.37N 91.99W
03/12/2012 M11.61 INCH ST. LANDRY LA OTHER FEDERAL
THE USGS GAGE AT BAYOU VERMILION NEAR
CARENCRO...BVCL1...HAS RECORDED 11.61 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE ROUGHLY 6 AM THIS MORNING.
Tropical storm like rainfall
I remember it well. I was anchored off Bimini at Alice Town. Blew like stink. I had out three anchors, including my storm anchor, and I still drug.
Some said we had 100 mile an hour gusts, but I had no way to measure. I do know that Alice Town was badly damaged. Nasty storm and at the wrong time of year.
That is a lot of rain in such a short amount of time.
You betcha, RE and ST2K.
Meanwhile, roughly 100 miles to the SE of those flooding rains at my location in Houma-Terrebonne - have gotten none of that activity, no measurable rain since Friday, which was fairly meager at that on both my Cocorah gauges, Bayou Cane: .10" amt, Bayou Blue: .17" amts...
Post of the year. I actually laughed out loud :)
Well that's an interesting glitch in the system.
Maybe you can clarify what you meant. I went to read your blog and it doesn't appear any blogs were ever posted by KeyWestSun handle. Did you use some other handle prior to Feb 12, 2012?
Member Since: February 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
I'm confused (as usual).
:)
Storm over water...surrounded by land
Huge,but not at the limit. Imagine the storm with northern end over mid-Greenland,southern near 15N latitude,western over Dakotas and eastern over Europe. Blizzard of 1993 would be a baby in comparison to that.
it aint lame, be proud of it!:D
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/
A foot of rain...in such a short period of time.
Hence the flash flood emergency. Really worried about some of the ungauged areas just west of Carencro. Can also see some of the flooding on the KATC-TV facebook page. Many parts of town are just flooding... not even from a major river, just because there is no where for it to go...
Okay sir lol. It does need work, and I need practice to become a better blogger, but I'm getting there. I'm proud of it, but compared to the "professional" look of others blogs (including yours, SPL), mine does seem "lame".
See post #53 and #65 for explanation.
Image added:
"U betcha"
They ran for it. If they saw a tornado headed towards them, they ran for their lives.
Not the smartest idea, but they really didn't know how to protect themselves from a tornado then.
Look for NOLA to go under Severe TS warning
And to answer your question, I only have one handle here. And that's this one. But while we're on the topic of ignore lists, would you like to be the first person on my iggy list?.......
LOL. Sure!
:)
www.solarham.com
Viewing: 51 - 101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 — Blog Index