Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012

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For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Lightning 2 (barbtrek)
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Lightning 2
Setting Sol (minnesotamom)
Setting Sol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When I look at that picture it reminds me of my back pain I have.And then I put one of those cold/warm patches on it to make it feel better.

Funny, but the warm equatorial waters that was there earlier seems to be cooling a bit
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7459
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awaiting daily initiation..



Might as well change the "r" in MAR to a "y" for MAY.
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"We followed them through the summer, and we saw something that had
never been seen before," said CU ecology and evolutionary biology
professor Jeff Mitton, describing the study conducted at CU's Mountain
Research Station, about 25 mile west of Boulder. "Adults that were newly
laid eggs two months before were going out and attacking trees."……….
The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation,
1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their
study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly.

the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow increased by 44 percent since 1970.

But
in 25 years, the beetles have expanded their range, 2,000 feet higher
in elevation and 240 miles north in latitude in Canada, Mitton said.

This
exponential increase in the beetle population might help to explain the
scope of the current beetle epidemic, which is the largest in history
and extends from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in New Mexico to the
Yukon Territory near Alaska.


http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/03/16/global-wa rming-pine-beetles-thriving-at-higher-elevations/
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Quoting nigel20:
When I look at that picture it reminds me of my back pain I have.And then I put one of those cold/warm patches on it to make it feel better.
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The Casper Wyoming paper -
"This would be like our parents being born in the fall
and reaching maturity in the spring, giving birth to us in May (or)
June," said Scott Ferrenberg, an author of the study with Jeffry Mitton.
"We subsequently grow to maturity by August and have our own children
that continue along a similar cycle."
This is all but doubling the mountain pine beetle population. The
study links the accelerated growth in beetles to increases in air
temperature over the past two decades.

Read more: http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/double-tr ouble-from-colorado-pine-beetles/article_65191bf9- b5c7-5878-a1a9-78582a901e19.html#ixzz1pLS7Tcdd
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7459
Good day guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7459

The effects seem particularly pronounced at higher elevations, where
warmer temperatures have facilitated beetle attacks. In the last two
decades at the Mountain Research Station, mean annual temperatures were
2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they were in the previous two
decades.
Warmer temperatures gave the beetle larvae more spring days to grow
to adulthood. The number of spring days above freezing temperatures
increased by 15.1 in the last two decades, Mitton and Ferrenberg report.
Also, the number of days that were warm enough for the beetles to grow
increased by 44 percent since 1970.
The Mountain Research Station site is about 10,000 feet in elevation,
1,000 feet higher than the beetles have historically thrived. In their
study, Mitton and Ferrenberg emphasize this anomaly.
http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/03/16/globa l-warming-pine-beetles-thriving-at-higher-elevatio ns/
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Awaiting daily initiation..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
The Tex/Mex Drought -
The announcement from researchers with WWF and Mexico’s National
Commission for Natural Protected Areas appears to confirm the fears of
some biologists, who said it was likely that scalding temperatures and
extreme droughts affecting Texas and other parts of the United States in
2011 would take a toll on the butterflies.

The migrating monarchs can survive for only so long without
nectar or water, and the leg of their journey through parched regions of
the U.S. was likely a difficult one.
“I call that a thousand miles of hell, from Oklahoma down to
Mexico,” Chip Taylor, a professor and insect ecologist at the University
of Kansas, and the director of Monarch Watch, a nonprofit outreach
organization, told OurAmazingPlanet in November.


http://www.livescience.com/19122-monarch-butterfl y-numbers-hit.html

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who are we talking about here?
Jason. Watch some of his youtube videos and see what I mean.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.


Also,what I notice not only on CMC but on GFS is the Azores high weaker,and that is important as less upwelling warm the MDR waters.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13294
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well he does not literally. I actually fear for him a little. His behavior makes him seem mentally unsound. Also the fact that he is one of the largest people I'v ever seen. If he ever gets in a fight he could really hurt someone.

Who are we talking about here?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You would think people would have better things to do besides mess with people all day everyday.
Well he does not literally. I actually fear for him a little. His behavior makes him seem mentally unsound. Also the fact that he is one of the largest persons I'v ever seen. If he ever gets in a fight he could really hurt someone.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting Patrap:
All entries on wunderground can be viewed without comments enabled.

It's not like folks come here to see the banter and BS between us.


;p




You mean everyone isn't here to see me post? What a horrible realization this is... :(
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.
Skypony did point this out a yesterday.With all this May/June weather happening I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Or the many Jason handles.

You would think people would have better things to do besides mess with people all day everyday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Back on subject with some interesting news.

The 00z CMC is developing a tropical cyclone just north of the Bahamas by 108 hrs. The CMC has been showing this quite persistently, but not so much on time it will happen as it showed it as early as Monday, now its showing it on Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF is showing something along the lines of this, but weaker and farther out, by 144 hours well to the west and north of the Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

^_^


Or the many Jason handles.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13294
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like JFV for example....TEH.

^_^
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Seriously though, if I was very wealthy, and was interested in buying a car, I would definitely buy this any day over its internal combustion competition.


Its 100% electric, its fast, it looks great, its battery life is long, and it charges fast.

People need to be aware that unlike the internal combustion engine, technology improvement will allow the electric powered car to grow that much more powerful and efficient.



Now, all they need to do is start building powerful electric pickup-trucks as alternatives and I'll be really interested!


Check this out:Link
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All entries on wunderground can be viewed without comments enabled.

It's not like folks come here to see the banter and BS between us.


;p


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125587
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Q: What do you call a bunch of tractors parked in front of a McDonald's on Friday night in Hillsborough County, Florida?

A: Prom.
Lol.I bet a true Floridain would understand the joke fully.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"


Q: What do you call a bunch of tractors parked in front of a McDonald's on Friday night in Hillsborough County, Florida?

A: Prom.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Like who?
Like JFV for example....TEH.
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Quoting hydrus:
I noticed that. I can recognize some of them from there posts.


Like who?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and some of our trolls have just made new user names to disguise themselves but i know who they are they fool no one but themselves can not change there writing style
I noticed that. I can recognize some of them from there posts.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19524
Quoting washingtonian115:
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"

BOO!!!

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
What do people say to you when you come back from New Jersey???.

"So did you get a new Jersey?"
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Alright you fixed it lol.



LOL just playin with you HH XD
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I like my forecast.

This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Where is this?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Corny weather joke below:

Q. What does the atmospheric conditions in DC have in common with a top ranked boxer?

A. Both are May Weather!
Boooo LOL.J/K.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
quote">Quoting hurricanehunter27:



Alright you fixed it lol.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Corny weather joke below:

Q. What does the atmospheric conditions in DC have in common with a top ranked boxer?

A. Both are May Weather!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and some of our trolls have just made new user names to disguise themselves but i know who they are they fool no one but themselves can not change there writing style
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Quoting hurricanehunter27:



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Quoting caneswatch:


Like me for a little bit. What a mess it was.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting Neapolitan:
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.
Here in D.C I do think it'll be above average.I don't think we'll surpass our previous record though.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't know Wunderground was around back then.I wasn't "hip".Lol.I know alot of people were probally worried though and let's not forget the trolls now who were probally causing trouble.


WU, the blogs at least, have been around since April 2005.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It caused a lot of good people to leave last year.


Like me for a little bit. What a mess it was.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.


I have great hopes for the rainy season this year in Florida. Thunderstorms this year have already been forming along the seabreeze, I suspect we'll have severe thunderstorms daily in Florida by early May.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


By far the most insane experience tracking hurricanes with all you guys happened on August 30th, 2008 during the 1800z advisory on Hurricane Gustav.



INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

That day was insane. A Category 5 hurricane predicted in the GOMEX.

I think we cranked out 5,000 comments in under 3 hours that day. Even scarier was when the doctor posted a blog saying 'It's time to get out of New Orleans.'

I didn't know Wunderground was around back then.I wasn't "hip".Lol.I know alot of people were probally worried though and let's not forget the trolls now who were probally causing trouble.
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The CFSv2 model is in Warm Neutral ENSO by August,September and October.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13294
Quoting seflagamma:
SE Florida has had a beautiful winter and spring; back to "normal" for us after two extremely cold winters..
The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were definitely well below normal here in Florida, but this current winter has been anything but normal here. It'll be interesting to see the March climatological rankings for the US, as most every one from the Great Plains eastward should be in the top 10 or top 5 warmest on record--if not the outright warmest, period.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When i was lurking back in 09 I though that was the cariziest time.Because we didn't have a storm until August.People went mad.2010 was also crazy.That's why it took me a while to decide wheather or not I wanted to join this place.


By far the most insane experience tracking hurricanes with all you guys happened on August 30th, 2008 during the 1800z advisory on Hurricane Gustav.



INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

That day was insane. A Category 5 hurricane predicted in the GOMEX.

I think we cranked out 5,000 comments in under 3 hours that day. Even scarier was when the doctor posted a blog saying 'It's time to get out of New Orleans.'

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At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.

It's the same story in my area. Current forecasts through the end of this week would result in a mean temperature some 3 to 4+ degrees above the previous warmest March. And it's even more impressive when you consider how anomalous the previous record-holder (March 1945) is, as that month was much warmer than any other March on record.
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Quoting DasRegulator:


What a hypocrite


Quite a bold first comment!
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Quoting SPLbeater:


AMEN. I wish everyone else here had that attitude!

oh, and good evening all. Say your final bye bye to Lua, she is dead now. and we are back to a basin filled with nothing:(


What a hypocrite
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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
11:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 22.1S 120.3E or 150 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the inland Pilbara.

Gales are occurring in inland areas near Newman and Jigalong and Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre until early Sunday morning.

As the cyclone moves further south, gales may reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and possibly the far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields overnight and during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous.
Unprecedented!!.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.