Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012 +26
For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Lightning 2 (barbtrek)
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Lightning 2
Setting Sol (minnesotamom)
Setting Sol
()
Categories: Heat Tornado
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301. Tropicsweatherpr 3:36 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. Someone posted the other day that the Trop. Atl. was forecast to be pretty dry in Jun-Jul-Aug.
I don't much care for forecasts that far out, but we shall see...


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.I will post it again.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8166
302. hydrus 3:37 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

I've been doing that....
But in a rather indirect way.
I drink the Red first, you see?

heheheheh
Probably for the best. I realized a drunk Calabash Tree could be a rather disturbing sight.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
303. pottery 3:38 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.

LOL, I didn't realise it was you!
What exactly is that forecast based on, do you know?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
304. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:38 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??

There were no supercells today...?

EDIT: Nevermind, saw your latest post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25292
305. pottery 3:39 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Probably for the best. I realized a drunk Calabash Tree could be a rather disturbing sight.

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
306. Tropicsweatherpr 3:41 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

LOL, I didn't realise it was you!
What exactly is that forecast based on, do you know?


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8166
307. hydrus 3:41 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is it just me or has there been a huge increase in earthquakes in Alaska.Link
Most are small but still I don't think I'v ever seen this volume of them.
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
308. pottery 3:41 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Guess what my friend,that was me when I posted the MSLP forecast by ECMWF.I will post it again.


Thanks.
That covers Jul-Aug-Sep.
Looks pretty dread.
I hope that forecast is Bunk!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
309. KoritheMan 3:42 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.


Reminds me of about a year ago, where this dude was giving away pears. We took him up on his offer, with the caveat that we had to pick them. I was standing on a ladder under the tree, and one of them fell directly on my head. It hurt. Bad.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
310. pottery 3:42 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


Thanks again.
As I say, Pretty Dread!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
311. KoritheMan 3:42 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433
312. hydrus 3:43 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

True. One should never stand under a Calabash tree.
Especially an inebriated one.
The fruit is hard and heavy.
I poured some red on this one and look what happened..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
313. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:44 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.

That's what she sai--
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25292
314. pottery 3:44 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Reminds me of about a year ago, where this dude was giving away pears. We took him up on his offer, with the caveat that we had to pick them. I was standing on a ladder under the tree, and one of them fell directly on my head. It hurt. Bad.

Lucky that you managed to stay on the ladder....

"Man killed by falling Pear" would have made a great headline though...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
315. SPLbeater 3:45 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were no supercells today...?

EDIT: Nevermind, saw your latest post.


u shoulda hear my gandfather today!! talk about stubborn as a MULE!!
------------------------------------------------- --
Me: This system just east of Asheboro has some weak rotation, look at the SRM and radar.*points*. Tornadoes are VERY unlikely, but something i might watch for fun.

Him: if a tornado develops, it will head SW to NE.

Me: a tornado will move whichever direction the storm is moving.

Him: if a tornado develops, it always goes NE. i have never seen any go any other way.

Me: you know, once there was some supercells out west that developed and went southwest. they produces tornadoes and the TORNADOES moved southwest, with the storm.

Him: yeah the storm can go one way but the tornado will move SW to NE

Me: *shakes head* NO, a tornado aint gonna leave the storm into open air!! it will stay inderneath the rotation present with the storm.

* He laughs and walks away*

------------------------------------------------- ----

and im like, REALLY!? listen to the guy who studies this stuff!!!geez!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
316. pottery 3:46 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd like to experience a weak one, wherein my house is still very much intact. Just one that produces a shaking sensation.

I assure you, they leave you feeling VERY defensless for a LONG time.
Terra Firma is not supposed to move around under our feet.
I don't like them at all at all.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
317. nigel20 3:47 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535
318. Tropicsweatherpr 3:48 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.
That covers Jul-Aug-Sep.
Looks pretty dread.
I hope that forecast is Bunk!


Yep. If that pans out,then closer to land or the so called homegrowns will be the order of this 2012 season. Apart from that,the MDR is below average right now on the sst's and that may also be a contributing factor to have homegrowns.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8166
319. pottery 3:48 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I poured some red on this one and look what happened..

You should of been locked up for that, LOL!
Poor tree.

Bad Red, huh?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
320. hurricanehunter27 3:50 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Also looks like Mt. Iliamna is getting active for the first time in historical records. Large earthquake swarms in the exact area.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:51 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
The earthquakes have been quite numerous. I have never been through one, and hope I never do.
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
322. MississippiWx 3:51 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
The EURO forecast of 2 meter temps for July, August, and September seem to hint at El Nino. These aren't sea surface temps, but usually this is a good indicator for what's going on in the water.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8559
323. hurricanehunter27 3:51 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake
Was in a 4.3 here in GA. I think it was back in 2003. The people who lived next door thought there house was falling of the hill into the river lol.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
324. pottery 3:52 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

I've only been in minor quakes, I hope I never experience a 7.0+ M quake

Last decent one we had was 6.2.
My wife was driving on the highway and thought that the steering had gone bananas.
Couldn't keep the car in a straight line....

At home we lost some stuff from shelves, and about half the water from the fish tank.
A Tsunami!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
325. hydrus 3:52 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Good evening to you too Keep.....sheeesh...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
326. hydrus 3:53 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

You should of been locked up for that, LOL!
Poor tree.

Bad Red, huh?
Good red.. Didnt you notice how big the tree opened his maw for seconds.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
327. MississippiWx 3:54 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
And here is the actual SST Anomaly forecast:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8559
328. pottery 3:54 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one

That's so reassuring for him, I'm sure.

LOL, how you doing Keeper?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
329. pottery 3:55 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Good red.. Didnt you notice how big the tree opened his maw for seconds.?

Sorry. I thought that was a Death Grimace!
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330. Patrap 3:56 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111414
331. Tropicsweatherpr 3:56 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
There is also a swarm of small and some moderate quakes that have occured in the past couple of days near the Dominican Republic,Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and Mona Passage.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8166
332. hydrus 3:58 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I thought that was a Death Grimace!
Burgundy overdose maybe..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
333. pottery 3:58 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting MississippiWx:
And here is the actual SST Anomaly forecast:


Neutral Atlantic there.
Still, that's plenty warm enough for all kinds of Mischief!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
334. hurricanehunter27 3:59 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
9.1? I'm not to sure about that. Here is a simulation of of a 7.7 in the area.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
335. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:59 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening to you too Keep.....sheeesh...:)
sorry hydrus if its any comfort i will even feel the effects here in southern ontario or at least we did the last time it happen did you know church bells rang in new york from the same quake as well the last time it happen and there were three big ones over a six month stretch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:03 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
The four earthquakesDecember 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2 – 8.1[2]) epicenter in northeast Arkansas. It caused only slight damage to man-made structures, mainly because of the sparse population in the epicentral area. The future location of Memphis, Tennessee experienced level IX shaking on the Mercalli intensity scale. A seismic seiche propagated upriver, and Little Prairie (a village that was on the site of the former Fort San Fernando, near the site of present-day Caruthersville, Missouri) was heavily damaged by soil liquefaction.[3]
December 16, 1811, 1415 UTC (8:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2–8.1) epicenter in northeast Arkansas. This shock followed the first earthquake by six hours and was similar in intensity.[2]
January 23, 1812, 1500 UTC (9 a.m.); (M ~7.0–7.8[2]) epicenter in the Missouri Bootheel. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks. Johnson and Schweig attributed this earthquake to a rupture on the New Madrid North Fault. This may have placed strain on the Reelfoot Fault.[3]
February 7, 1812, 0945 UTC (4:45 a.m.); (M ~7.4–8.0[2]) epicenter near New Madrid, Missouri. New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, Missouri, many houses were severely damaged, and their chimneys were toppled. This shock was definitively attributed to the Reelfoot Fault by Johnston and Schweig. Uplift along a segment of this reverse fault created temporary waterfalls on the Mississippi at Kentucky Bend, created waves that propagated upstream, and caused the formation of Reelfoot Lake by obstructing streams in what is now Lake County, Tennessee.[3]
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
337. nigel20 4:04 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting pottery:

Last decent one we had was 6.2.
My wife was driving on the highway and thought that the steering had gone bananas.
Couldn't keep the car in a straight line....

At home we lost some stuff from shelves, and about half the water from the fish tank.
A Tsunami!

The strongest I've experienced was a magnitude 5.3
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535
338. SPLbeater 4:04 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
where is the radar with no clutter...wasnt there somethin done to git rid of it?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
339. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:06 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Well now aren't you just a bundle of joy.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:07 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through the firm midwestern bedrock, with residents as far away as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, awakened by intense shaking.[9] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[10] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
341. hydrus 4:09 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry hydrus if its any comfort i will even feel the effects here in southern ontario or at least we did the last time it happen did you know church bells rang in new york from the same quake as well the last time it happen and there were three big ones over a six month stretch
Actually- I did some research on the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake, and it was massive in more ways than one.Damage-range comparison between a moderate New Madrid zone earthquake (1895, magnitude 6.8), and a similar Los Angeles event (1994, magnitude 6.7).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:09 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
and its 2012 two hundred years ago to the year
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
343. hydrus 4:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Well now aren't you just a bundle of joy.
HHHAAAA HHHHAAA !!!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
344. SPLbeater 4:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
345. hurricanehunter27 4:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through the firm midwestern bedrock, with residents as far away as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, awakened by intense shaking.[9] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[10] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed
Get that off Wikipedia?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
346. pottery 4:11 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and its 2012 two hundred years ago to the year

... and Grothar was there.....
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347. nigel20 4:11 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
9.1? I'm not to sure about that. Here is a simulation of of a 7.7 in the area.

The largest quakes tend to occur along subbuction zones and are more likely to produce megathrust quakes (9.0 )
The eastern caribbean sits next to a subduction zone plate boundary, so the area around Japan which is reffered to as the ring of fire plate
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535
348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:12 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40514
349. hurricanehunter27 4:13 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Actually- I did some research on the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake, and it was massive in more ways than one.Damage-range comparison between a moderate New Madrid zone earthquake (1895, magnitude 6.8), and a similar Los Angeles event (1994, magnitude 6.7).
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470
350. hydrus 4:13 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:
night all
G,nite SPL.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287
351. hydrus 4:18 AM GMT on March 18, 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
I must mention that I live on top of the Cumberland Caverns. A rather spooky network of caves that is over 25 miles long and covered with cemeteries. An earthquake would be a bit unsettling. I go to church with a relative of the man who discovered them. Excerpt..Cumberland Caverns is the second to third longest cave in Tennessee, USA. It has a surveyed length of 27.616 miles (44.4 kilometers), which makes it the 14th longest cave in the United States and the 64th longest cave in the World.

The main entrance was discovered by Aaron Higgenbotham in 1810 while he was surveying the nearby Chickamauga Trail on Cardwell Mountain in what is now Warren County. According to legend, Higgenbotham was the first man to enter the cave and it was named Higgenbotham Cave in his honor. Another smaller cave, also located on Cardwell Mountain, was also discovered about this time and was named Henshaw Cave. Although not nearly as big as Higgenbotham Cave, Henshaw Cave proved to be a source of saltpeter (the main ingredient of gunpowder) and was operated as a saltpeter mine during perhaps both the War of 1812 and the Civil War.

Higgenbotham Cave became a favorite spot for local adventurers during the 19th century and groups would ride out to the entrance in Haywagons and make the strenuous trip to a point in the cave now known as the Ten Acre Room. In the days of the Haywagon parties, it was called the Big Room. Here, many visitors left their names and the date candled on the ceiling.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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