Torrential rains in Oklahoma; Summer in March continues for Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on March 20, 2012

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A significant flood event is underway in Eastern Oklahoma, where widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen since yesterday. Up to four more inches of rain is likely today, and the National Weather Service in Tulsa is warning of the potential for "widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding" should some of the higher rainfall amounts being forecast materialize. Numerous main-stem rivers across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are now approaching flood stage, and will likely experience moderate to major flooding into Wednesday. Rainfall has also been heavy over Eastern Texas, with widespread amounts of 2 - 4 inches. These heavy rains are causing some street flooding, but in general, will be a benefit, as moderate to severe drought conditions still cover most of the region.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for Eastern Oklahoma since March 19, 2012, as estimated by the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar.

The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that is colliding with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front early this week had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front is lifting huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing torrential rains to fall. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Slight Risk of severe weather over East Texas, Western Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of East Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Three tornadoes were reported yesterday in Texas, and eleven touched down the previous day in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The tornado that hit North Platte, Nebraska two days ago was rated a strong EF-3, and injured four people.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 2-day period Tuesday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 3+ inches (orange colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.

Summer in March continues for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest will continue to set all-time heat records through Thursday, gradually shifting its peak intensity eastwards during the week. A few highlights from yesterday's records:

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past three days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 82°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 82° reading broke the previous record for the date (56° in 1976) by an amazing 26°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 83°F yesterday, the third consecutive day the city has experienced its hottest March temperature on record.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 78°F yesterday, 42° above average, and the 2nd hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. The record of 79°F was set the previous day. Remarkably, the low temperature for International Falls bottomed out at 60°F yesterday, tying the previous record high for the date. I've never seen a station with a century-long data record have its low temperature for the date match the previous record high for the date. Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day that International Falls broke or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba has broken its record high for the past five days in a row, and hit 24°C (75.2°F) yesterday, its hottest March temperature on record. Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario are near 26°C, which will threaten the records for hottest March day in history for Windsor, London, Hamilton, and Toronto.


Figure 3. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. will break off and form a giant eddy on Wednesday. The resulting area of low pressure will be known as a "cut-off low", because it will be cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Lake Fog After T-storm (spacey84)
Lake Fog After T-storm
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Spring Suprise (Lou427)
First and last snow of winter !
Spring Suprise

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Bottomline the trough that has been out west for the last 2 weeks will be moving east over the coming 7 to 10 days.
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I know this is way out but this gives you an idea that the pattern is going to change to one that will feature arctic air across the northern US and possible snowstorms. Models seems to be focusing on a potential snowstorm for the Great Lakes around the first few days of April.

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Here's the MODIS image of what's just to the East of all that dust, THE DESTROYED PLANET. Pollution from China to Thailand to India.



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Realtime images of India, Middle East, Central Africa and West Africa coast. MODIS today







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STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 03 FOR CENTRAL U.S. HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CONTINUES...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NORTHWARD TO MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 AM CDT...A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF IT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE BEING REPORTED IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO
CANADA AND SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS BEGINNING TO
STALL. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING NUMEROUS
ROAD CLOSURES AND EVACUATIONS NEAR LOW WATER CROSSING AREAS...WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM CDT SUN MAR
18 THROUGH 900 AM CDT TUE MAR 20...

...ARKANSAS...
ALMA 2 NNW 2.97
DECATUR 3 ESE 2.65
FORT SMITH MUNI APRT 1.32

...KANSAS...
UNIONTOWN 5 WSW 3.58
MCCUNE 2 NW 3.50
GARLAND 3 SW 2.77
COFFEYVILLE MUNI ARPT 2.21
CHANUTE MARTIN JOHNSON ARPT 2.16
OLATHE 1.76
WINFIELD 1.46
WICHITA 1.31

...MISSOURI...
JOPLIN 4 SW 4.10
NEOSHO 4 WNW 3.96
CARL JUNCTION 2 E 3.86
CARTHAGE 2 S 3.78
KANSAS CITY INTL ARPT 1.21

...OKLAHOMA...
MONKEY ISLAND 3 SSE 6.35
NORMAN 2 W 5.55
EUCHA 5.32
BROKEN ARROW 7 ENE 5.17
LOCUST GROVE 5.04
PRYOR 4.81
JAY 4.69
TULSA 5 SSE 4.52
ADA 4 SE 4.45
INOLA 3.97
SHAWNEE 3.43
TINKER AFB 3.42
BRISTOW 3.17
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.02
BARTLESVILLE MUNI ARPT 3.00

...TEXAS...
WACO 1 S 6.57
INGRAM 3 NW 4.41
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 4.28
MEDINA 3.83
CORSICANA/CAMPBELL FIELD 3.55
MCGREGOR 3.17
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 3.00
NEW BRAUNFELS 7 NNE 2.97
BURNET 2.95
MCKINNEY 2.92
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 2.85
NWS FORT WORTH 2.72
MCKINNEY MUNI ARPT 2.17
LACKLAND AFB 8 WNW 2.00


THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS...INCLUDING LOW WATER CROSSINGS...WILL TURN
INTO LARGE SCALE RIVER FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

FANNING
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Just a quick visual comparison of 2011 and 2012 from Massachusetts:

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Lake Travis rose 0.61 feet from yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3738
Well I was hoping for a lot more rain in Houston than we received. Oh well...
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Quoting LargoFl:
ITS A SLOW MOVER ALRIGHT, CAN YOU AT LEATS SEND SOME OF THOSE INCHES OF RAIN TO FLORIDA? MAN WE SURE NEED IT


Hell I'd take a 1/2 inch at this point.
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Quoting Josihua2:
wow possibility of 15 inches of rain in Oklahoma.. yites!!! need the niles river of Africa to aid in drainage!
ITS A SLOW MOVER ALRIGHT, CAN YOU AT LEATS SEND SOME OF THOSE INCHES OF RAIN TO FLORIDA? MAN WE SURE NEED IT
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Regarding the picture on the televsion website of the "large tornado" near San Antonio... probably should post this here as well, for those that were following the thread on last night's storms but havent read about this in other locations:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


FYI... I should mention that it seems as if numerous people discussing this photo in other places, indicating that it was a picture taken in 2004 and is not of the 3/19/2012 tornado near San Antonio.

With the quick ease by which people can tout fake photographs on the internet these days especially on un-reviewed TV photo albums, we should use this as a reminder to take these things with a grain of salt.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Several years ago climate scientists started telling us that a warming climate would likely mean more periods of drought and more periods of very heavy precipitation (all that extra water evaporated into the atmosphere).

Joe Romm wrote a book called "Hell and High Water" in 2006.

Perhaps the only thing that we should be surprised about is how soon and how intensely those predictions seem to be making us a visit.

Can we use past weather patterns to predict tomorrow's weather? The overall system has changed and that makes yesterday's observations less valuable.



Only several years ago? Many of these types of events were suggested even decades earlier than present, albeit with lower amounts of scientific confidence. Even around the time of Romm's book, the media-publicized opinions and even those accepted by the world governments for inclusion in the IPCC assessment reports were more conservative than the general opinion of climate scientists.
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FINALLY!!!!!!couldnt get on wunderground this morning!!!

So....what have i missed(un-intentionally)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting JNCali:
ECMWF showing the Eastern US High getting pushed a day earlier now



A pettern change is coming for sure. A pattern that will bring some of the coldest air to the northern US since FEBRUARY! Also a return to stormy wx for the SE US.

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Quoting Jax82:
It helps the GOM is warmer than normal for this time of year.



I imagine that the Mississippi's runoff is gonna be warmer too!
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error...
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
ECMWF showing the Eastern US High getting pushed a day earlier now

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Quoting Josihua2:
wow possibility of 15 inches of rain in Oklahoma.. yites!!! need the niles river of Africa to aid in drainage!


Several years ago climate scientists started telling us that a warming climate would likely mean more periods of drought and more periods of very heavy precipitation (all that extra water evaporated into the atmosphere).

Joe Romm wrote a book called "Hell and High Water" in 2006.

Perhaps the only thing that we should be surprised about is how soon and how intensely those predictions seem to be making us a visit.

Can we use past weather patterns to predict tomorrow's weather? The overall system has changed and that makes yesterday's observations less valuable.

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Looks like the worst is over for Houston. Not as much rain as anticipated. Unless something crazy happens, this should be the end of it by noon.
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Upper low in 69 hours..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
Quoting Jax82:
It helps the GOM is warmer than normal for this time of year.





It's kinda crazy that in the span of about 100-200 miles the Ocean temperature differs by about 6-8 degrees Celsius down in the Eastern Pacific towards Central America towards 10 degrees North.

Anywhere from 40 - 20 degree North and west of 70 West (Gulf of Mex and Carolina coast down to Miami and the Bahamas) Those areas are all above normal. Then it gets even more interesting towards NYC. 3 degree Celsius. Storms are going to be able to sustain their strengths much further north if these trends continue.

Then you can see where the African dust storms are really doing a number on the SST around the Cape Verde s...
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Quoting Josihua2:
wow possibility of 15 inches of rain in Oklahoma.. yites!!! need the niles river of Africa to aid in drainage!

Looks like the radar was heavily affected by bright banding based on rainfall reports from Muskogee, which is very near that radar max. While lots of rain has fallen, there is a big difference between over 15 inches and not even five inches of rain.

Muskogee, Davis Field
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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
458 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 20 2012 - 12Z THU MAR 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...

AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT ENERGY CLOSING
OFF ALOFT WILL MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLOW TO EXIT
EASTWARDS. AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
EXTREMELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING A MAJOR CONCERN FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
FARTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A SECOND DAY. TO THE WEST OF THE
HEAVY RAINS...THE UPPER ENERGY SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE COUNTRY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTS
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN
PRODUCING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE FAVORED SLOPES OF THE
TERRAIN. EARLY WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY RAINS TO THE COASTAL REGIONS.

MEANWHILE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE REST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


GERHARDT
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1006 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 24 2012 - 12Z TUE MAR 27 2012

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD IS DEPICTED BY CURRENT
GUIDANCE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH STRADDLING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS...AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. PROJECTED
500 MB HEIGHT AND 850-700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES NEAR THE
STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE RANGE FROM 2 TO NEAR 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW/ABOVE NORMAL RESPECTIVELY...SUGGESTING
THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND SLOWLY FROM THE WEST
COAST INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE AN AXIS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS MORE
COMPLICATED...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW COMPRISING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...WHILE A SMALLER CUTOFF LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. THROUGH DAY
4/SAT...THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SMALL...HAVING IMPROVED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND WITH SEEMINGLY FEW
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF SIGNIFICANT ERROR OR MULTIPLE STREAM
INTERACTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE WITH THE
LARGE AND SMALL-SCALE STRUCTURES IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED AND THUS CONSIDERABLY MORE
UNCERTAIN BEGINNING DAY 5/SUN...AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH AND POTENTIAL NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW REACHING THE APPALACHIANS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP A SIMILAR OUTCOME ACROSS THE WEST BY ALLOWING THE LARGE
LOW TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT DO SO IN
VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS A PERTURBATION TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND THUS EJECTS IT EASTWARD...BUT IS
A NEAR OUTLIER WITH ITS STRENGTH...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW
INLAND BY ALLOWING ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...BUT
IT LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
IS POOR...AND GIVEN THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ALONG WITH TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES WITH LARGE CUT-OFF STRUCTURES...CONFIDENCE FALLS TO
JUST AVERAGE DAY 5...AND IS BELOW AVERAGE DAYS 6/7. FOR NOW...HAVE
USED AN INTERMEDIATE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
FOR THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS...GIVEN GOOD SUPPORT FROM OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SOLUTION
CHANGES FROM SUBSEQUENT CYCLES...INCLUDING SLOWER PROGRESSION FOR
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SMALL CUT-OFF LOW
CROSSING THE EAST DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A STRONG
OUTLIER WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM...AND THUS EJECTS THE LOW INTO
THE ATLANTIC FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT IS REASONABLY
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/UKMET. STRONG BIASES OCCASIONALLY SHOWN
BY THE CANADIAN AND A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT SUPPORT REJECTING
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...WITH THE REMAINING CLUSTER OF
SOLUTIONS SUFFICIENTLY NARROW IN SPREAD TO WARRANT A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JAMES
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
wow possibility of 15 inches of rain in Oklahoma.. yites!!! need the niles river of Africa to aid in drainage!
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65


Got some decent rains around where I live in Denton, TX.
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From the old blog -

#742 KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Thank you - averages seem to mean notta this season, does this also mean that "the odds of" are no longer pertinent?
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Wow not to far back Texas was the drought capital of the US. everyday temps we in the high 80`s and often into the 90`s but recently Texas has received more rainfall than most(if not all states in the US). Ahh the wonders of climate and weather :P
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
Any other models trending with this one?

Link
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Meh, 78 degrees and sunny in Nassau weather... perfect weather. my tennis tournament starts today. wish me luck!
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Some monthly heat records for the lower Lakes, based on mean temp. for the month to date. Current record in parentheses. Amount above existing record in brackets.

Chicago 51.4 (48.6, 1910 & 1945) [+2.8]
Rockford 49.4 (48.2, 1945) [+1.2]
South Bend 50.8 (47.4, 1946) [+3.4]
Indianapolis 53.5 (51.9, 1910 & 1946) [+1.6]
Fort Wayne 49.6 (48.1, 1946) [+1.5]
Flint 48.1 (46.0, 1945) [+2.1]
Saginaw 46.8 (45.1, 1945) [+1.7]
Detroit 48.6 (47.9, 1945) [+0.7]
Buffalo 45.7 (44.5, 1946) [+1.2]
Rochester 45.5 (43.8, 1945) [+1.7]
Toledo 48.6 (47.7, 1945) [+0.9]
Erie, PA 47.9 (46.8, 1945 & 1946) [+1.1]
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from last blog

Quoting lilElla:
In our neck of the woods (S Wisc)low temp this morning was 59, our average low is 26 and average high is 46. We are supposed to get up to 82 this afternoon. And tomorrow much of the same. Bloodroot is in full bloom and lilacs are leafed out........... Apple producers in our area are getting quite concerned.
brief cold shot but warming will be quick to rtn if anything new growth will be slowed

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
FLORIDA COUNTIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

.RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIP
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ABOUT THREE HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH
DISPERSION INDICES ABOVE 75. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF INLAND
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW AND LATER THIS WEEK RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 35 PERCENT SO THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FLZ007>013-016>019-026-028-029-210000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0016.120320T1800Z-120321T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
953 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 /853 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
FLORIDA COUNTIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...VALUES AROUND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

MOORE/SCHAER/BLOCK
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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Keeper, needs to turn the fans back on. It's too early for this heat.
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That's quite a 'U' in the jet stream. It's good to see that March is living up to its reputation...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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