Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I'm thinking there is something up with Wunderground temp forecasts. For Jacksonville Beach they show Saturday's high of 93 (that woudl beat the record high of 84 for the date by 9 degrees, highly unlikely). I go to NWS and its a high of 83. 10 degrees is an awful lot, and typically the NWS is close, and wunderground is off. I'm just curious as to why the large discrepancy in the forecasts, i think they have some improving to do.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


2.6 in SoCal? I bet no one even batted an eye. :)

When I lived out there if it wasn't above a 4 it didn't even make the news.

That was just someone backing into a hydrant...:)

Quoting hydrus:
That was just someone backing into a hydrant...:)

What's up hydrus?

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I personally hope its quite active.

It has been quite active since 1995. What would you call an active year.?

Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?

Busy as always. I have not had a chance to check the models yet, but it would seem that the U.S. is in for more rough weather late this week and early next. I read that Jamaica and Puerto Rico have been getting more than enough in the rain gauges lately. Last year it seemed you were drier than normal.

Quoting trunkmonkey:
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?

Something you wrote, no doubt. ;)

Quoting hydrus:
It has been quite active since 1995. What would you call an active year.?

He's talking tornado activity, not hurricane.

hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dr. Greg Forbes
MON APR 2
Numerical models are not on full agreement on the details, but the potential is there for a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak on Monday.
Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in east and south OH, extreme
west PA, western WV, KY, TN, north GA, north, central, and southwest AL, MS,
LA, south and east-central AR, upper coastal TX.

It always slopes NE into GA. Why cant it go straight across S GA???

Capes of 2000 forecast in the GFS last i saw, so we know that wont be what it is in the real event.

Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map

What I found was the TWD file.

Link

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I found was the TWD file.

Link

thanks mate

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I found was the TWD file.

Link

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


thanks mate

but do they have a extended history file that goes back atleast a year

Quoting MTWX:
Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

I saw where a number of the regional NWS offices had performed similar analyses, and almost across the board the consensus was twofold:

1) Historically, locations which had an above-normal March tended to not have an above-average spring or summer overall, and, in fact, often had an overall spring that was cooler than normal; however...

2) This month's heat wave was so deep, widespread, long-lasting, and profoundly anomalous that forecasters weren't willing to wager on a cool spring and/or summer this time; they simply didn't know what to expect.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map

Tropical Weather Discussion Archive


Surface Analysis Archive, not the map you showed but the master one that map is derived from.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


but do they have a extended history file that goes back atleast a year

The file is only for a few days back,unless there is a one year file that I have not seen.

Edit= I see that our friend nrtiwlnvragn posted both of them.

An EF6*tornado: 40,000mile(64,000kilometre) diameter with
windspeeds exceeding 100,000miles(161,000kilometres) per hour

And some photo animations (at the bottom when the page finishes loading)

* Possibly higher, though how the EnhancedFujitaScale can be extended to go beyond total destruction of all man-made structures and all landscape is a bit of a mystery.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Actually running a general weather site does sound tempting. I got the hardware to run one just need someone who is skilled in designing a website. I'm pretty sure you could run one hell of a site with just people off this blog. Time to start recruiting?

What would you differently and better than the existing websites? A lot of thought goes into a successful website.. WU me if you're serious..

Quoting MTWX:
Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

The last time we had a March this warm here in Tennessee was 1907. When April arrived, it was much cooler than normal. My opinion is that April will be very stormy with the usual break between systems.

One more of the many flood advisories that have been out on this Tuesday.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
907 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC143-145-280400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0067.120328T0107Z-120328T0400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
907 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 905 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO CIBUCO AT VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA.
MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO CIBUCO IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6641 1848 6634 1837 6633 1837 6640

$$

OMS

Quoting hydrus:
Busy as always. I have not had a chance to check the models yet, but it would seem that the U.S. is in for more rough weather late this week and early next. I read that Jamaica and Puerto Rico have been getting more than enough in the rain gauges lately. Last year it seemed you were drier than normal.

Yeah, it has been raining almost everyday here in Kingston and the rainy season in Jamaica begins somewhere between May and June....we usually get most of our rain from tropical systems and day time heating

Quoting aspectre:
An EF6*tornado: 40,000mile(64,000kilometre) diameter with
windspeeds exceeding 100,000miles(161,000kilometres) per hour

And some photo animations (at the bottom when the page finishes loading)

* Possibly higher, though how the EnhancedFujitaScale can be extended to go beyond total destruction of all man-made structures and all landscape is a bit of a mystery.

sunados above the solar surface

When's the last time we had something interesting tropical to talk about?
All we have now is a lousy looking invest in the West Pac...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
When's the last time we had something interesting tropical to talk about?
All we have now is a lousy looking invest in the West Pac...

How are you MAweatherboy1??

Public Information Statement, Comment Request
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2012

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Manager Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From: Dave Soroka
Acting Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: Soliciting Comments for Two Experimental Services
from the National Hurricane Center from June 1
Through November 30, 2012

Effective June 1 and continuing through November 30, 2012, NWS is
seeking user feedback on two experimental services from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC).

In an effort to provide users with additional information to
enhance planning and preparedness decisions, NHC will provide
audio briefings (also called podcasts) and videocasts, when the
media pool is activated by the NHC Public Affairs Officer. In
general, the media pool is activated by NHC when a hurricane
watch is initiated for a portion of the United States coastline.
The experimental services will summarize the NHC media
advisories. Because the services are experimental, they may not
be available in a timely manner and they may not be available for
every media event.

1. Audio briefings (podcasts)

The audio briefings will be provided in mp3 format, an industry
standard which allows the products be disseminated via the Web.
Users wishing to download the audio files may do so using their
Web browser. Links to mp3 files will be provided with Extensible
Markup Language (XML)/Really Simple Syndication (RSS) technology.

To subscribe to a podcast, a user would access the XML/RSS file
using podcasting software. This software is widely available on
the Web and manages audio feeds. Once a user subscribes to the
RSS feed, the podcasting software will check for new audio files
and download them to the users computer or mp3 player.

Users wishing to subscribe to the podcast should go to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index_podcast.xml

Feedback concerning this experimental service is welcomed at:

http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code= nhcpod

2.Videocasts

NHC has entered into an agreement with Weather Decision
Technologies (WDT), Inc. to provide Internet protocol-based audio
and video streaming of its hourly hurricane briefings. The
relationship with WDT, Inc. is intended to provide distant media
outlets and the general public with access to these briefings.

The video briefings are available to anyone with a Web browser
supporting mp4 format audio and video at:

http://www.imaphurricane.info/

Feedback concerning this experimental service is welcomed at:

http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code= nhcvid

If you have comments or questions, please contact:

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
National Hurricane Center
Miami, FL 33165-2140
Dennis.Feltgen@noaa.gov
305-229-4404

National Public Information Statements are online at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

Quoting nigel20:

How are you MAweatherboy1??

Not too bad...
As you might tell I'm looking forward to hurricane season. I love all kinds of weather but hurricanes are definitely my favorite :)

How about yourself if you don't mind me asking?

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not too bad...
As you might tell I'm looking forward to hurricane season. I love all kinds of weather but hurricanes are definitely my favorite :)

How about yourself if you don't mind me asking?

I'm good as well, thanks for asking...Hurricanes are my favorite as I live in the tropics

Here is another video of the flooding in Puerto Rico. Here you can see the Orocovis river raging over a bridge. The good news is that so far no injuries nor fatalities have occured.

Link

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.

It's a scientific theory that CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation in our atmosphere. If we are adding more of these gases to the atmosphere, obviously more radiation will be trapped, warming the atmosphere. The problem is Earth's atmospheric and oceanic systems are incredibly complex. There are a lot of processes we don't understand, and a lot of randomness and chaos within the system itself. This makes it difficult to determine the amount of warming we have contributed and it also makes it difficult to predict how much we will warm in the future and what those impacts will be.

Nonetheless, we can say that we have contributed to the warming of our planet. Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is another video of the flooding in Puerto Rico. Here you can see the Orocovis river raging over a bridge. The good news is that so far no injuries nor fatalities have occured.

Link

That's good to hear

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's talking tornado activity, not hurricane.

I thought he meant 13....My apologies to him...:)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

GREAT!!!!!!!

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.

Please don't twist my words. You've often expressed bewilderment at certain statements I and others have made, blaming your confusion on a lack of coffee; whether that is or is not the case, please feel free to ask for clarification before accusing me of anything.

Now, the fact that I agreed with a scientific consensus does not mean that I was merely stating my opinion. Example: I'm of the opinion that fire is hot. But if I tell you that fire is hot, I'm not just stating my opinion; I'm repeating what empirical evidence shows.

Simple, no?

So allow me to say again what I said earlier: an increasing number of scientists across many disciplines believe mankind is responsible for most--that is, the majority--if not all of the current observed warming.

That's a fact. And it's also my opinion. And the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now, grab that cup of coffee, then get back to me. ;-)

This is the beginning of the main Severe Weather threat for tonight. Convection has developed ahead of a cold front stretched across southern Wisconsin into southeast Iowa, northwest Missouri, and northeast Kansas. The atmosphere is characterized by 1000-1500 j/kg MLCAPE and 35-50 kt bulk wind shear. Mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates are quite high, which will support the threat for isolated large hail, and especially damaging wind gusts. Due to high LCL heights and little turning with height however, very few, if any, tornadoes are expected.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible soon.

Climatology of hurricanes in Jamaica

1851-2010

Perpetual Ocean by Vincent van NASA-Goddard



An excellent timelapse animation of ocean currents as they existed between 2006 and 2007
accompanied by some equally nice hang"drum"music.

NOAA Communications ‏ @NOAAComms
@JimCantore #NOAA NCDC says near-real time stations show 6,760 High Max Temp records so far this month: last 30-days

Quoting JNCali:
What would you differently and better than the existing websites? A lot of thought goes into a successful website.. WU me if you're serious..

Sry my internet was on the fritz. I have responded in your inbox.

Quoting nigel20:
Climatology of hurricanes in Jamaica

1851-2010

Puerto Rico has been thru many landfalls since 1850 for sure.

Either Virginia is getting some wicked rain, or their radar is on the fritz!

Wakefield, VA Composite

@232. Tom Taylor
Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.

Presume you are addressing me here and not the general you. I probably knew about the "greenhouse gas theory" before you were born.

@236. Neo...
LOL. Wasn't I who twisted your words. Was MinneMike. I was parroting back to him the explanation of your words that he gave me. If you read back and think about it, you might understand. I'm not even gonna read the rest of your comment.

In case anyone might care, and I don't know why they would, these posts to me and my reply reference a discussion near the end of DocM's previous blog.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Puerto Rico has been thru many landfalls since 1850 for sure.

That's quite a lot of storms

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
232. Tom Taylor
Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.

Presume you are addressing me here and not the general you. I probably knew about the greenhouse gas theory before you were born.

@236. Neo...
LOL. Wasn't I who twisted your words. Was MinneMike. I was parroting back to him the explanation of your words that he gave me. If you read back and think about it, you might understand. I'm not even gonna read the rest of your comment.

In case anyone might care, and I don't know why they would, these posts to me and my reply reference a discussion near the end of DocM's previous blog.

Was kinda wondering what y'all were going on about?? ;)

Quoting jrweatherman:


The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue.

Definitely