Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hard freeze hits Midwest and Northeast fruit trees

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:36 PM GMT on March 27, 2012

+33

Large portions of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and cold temperatures will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry, but it will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known. It would take several nights of temperatures in the 20s to cause a more significant billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.

During the remainder of this week, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than they were this morning, so the freeze damage will be limited compared to 2007. However, we still have two more months to go this spring when temperatures commonly fall below freezing. Plants will steadily grow more susceptible to cold temperatures in the coming weeks as the growing season progresses, and the odds of more destructive frosts and freezes for the Midwest and Northeast fruit industry are high.

Figure 1. Low temperatures this morning dipped below 30 degrees over Eastern Michigan, Northeast Ohio, Northern West Virginia, and much of Pennsylvania, in regions where spring bloom was well-advanced due to last week's record "Summer in March" heat wave. Widespread agricultural damage likely occurred in these areas.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Scotland records its all-time warmest March temperature
The ridge of high pressure that brought "Summer in March" to the U.S. last week moved over Western Europe over the weekend, bringing sunny skies and record-breaking high temperatures to the U.K. Scotland broke its record for hottest March temperature on record on Sunday, when the mercury hit 22.8°C at Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire. The record lasted only one day, as a new high of 22.9°C was recorded in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, on Monday. That record also lasted just one day, as Aboyne, Aberdeenshire has hit 23.4°C today. The previous March record in Scotland was 22.2°C at Gordon Castle (Morayshire) in March 1957, and at Strachan (Kincardineshire) in March 1965.

Canada's 1926 all-time March temperature record questioned
I reported last week that the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012 was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March. Environment Canada lists the hottest March temperature as a 31.1°C at Beaver Creek on Vancouver Island, BC on March 29th, 1926. However, weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has looked into this record, and concluded that it is likely bogus. A station just a few miles away at Port Alberni measured a much cooler high temperature of 23.3°C that day, and the temperature range between the high and low temperature at Beaver Creek was almost 30°C, which is far too great for a station so close to the ocean. Such large differences between min and max temperature on sunny days usually commonly imply poor siting of the temperature instrument. He maintains that the highest March temperature in Canada should be the 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg, with the second highest being the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Pink Springtime! (gardner48197)

Pretty little blossoms (colamom)

all in a row. I don't remember this old Redbud tree ever having all the little clusters of blooms on the branches. I thought it was pretty.

()

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251. nigel20 3:17 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting jrweatherman: The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue. Definitely Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

252. WxGeekVA 3:19 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
I highly doubt this happens, but still.... o.0 Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3351

253. uncwhurricane85 3:25 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting MTWX: Either Virginia is getting some wicked rain, or their radar is on the fritz! Wakefield, VA Composite its been doing that a lot lately for about 2 months...something is going on idk what though Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

254. uncwhurricane85 3:27 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: I highly doubt this happens, but still.... o.0 yeah snow on the i-95 corridor into southern v.a. hahahah i wish, but i dont see it happeneing either Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

255. nigel20 3:28 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Key west Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

257. Tropicsweatherpr 3:31 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
The flood warnings keep popping up even at this late hour. FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1050 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012 PRC051-135-137-280545- /O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0006.120328T0250Z-120328T0545Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR- 1050 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... DORADO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... TOA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... * UNTIL 145 AM AST * AT 1048 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO DE LA PLATA AT TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA. THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE IS 16.21 FEET AND RECEDING. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG RIO DE LA PLATA IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. LAT...LON 1848 6627 1847 6625 1839 6625 1839 6627 $$ OMS ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1038 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012 PRC017-039-054-091-101-107-280700- /O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120328T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR- 1038 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE * FLOOD WARNING FOR... BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... CIALES MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... FLORIDA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... MANATI MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... OROCOVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... * UNTIL 300 AM AST * AT 1033 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO GRANDE DE MANATI AT CIALES...MANATI AND BARCELONETA. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. LAT...LON 1827 6653 1848 6654 1849 6652 1841 6648 1833 6644 1821 6640 1820 6649 $$ OMS Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8763

258. Levi32 3:31 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
This will be worth watching with interest over the next 2-3 months. Recently the Atlantic has experienced a bout of atmospheric stability in its tropical areas. This year, the pattern may make the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico more unstable and favorable for wetness than one would typically expect from a potential El Nino. It will be interesting to see if vertical instability will be able to stay near or above climatology as we head into the early summer. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25604

259. nigel20 3:34 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Cyclone2012: We down here get hit from every direction imaginable, which is why we're so vulnerable to hits! Yeah, you guys have to track almost every storm that developes in the tropics Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

260. Ameister12 3:39 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0843 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN IL...EXTREME NERN/N-CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NWRN INDIANA...WRN/NRN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...EXTREME SRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 280143Z - 280345Z GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREFRONTAL BAND FROM N-CENTRAL IL TO NERN MO...WITH POTENTIAL MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN LM REGION AND POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING TOWARD KS/MO BORDER REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. OCNL SVR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM E-CENTRAL WI SWWD ACROSS DBQ/OTM/STJ AREAS. WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN WI SSEWD ACROSS CHI AREA TO NEAR SDF...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR WITH MID-UPPER 40S F DEW POINTS EXTENDED W OF WARM FRONT OVER ERN IL. GIVEN SWLY FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WAS WEAK...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. HOWEVER...SFC CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL IL. THOUGH AT OBLIQUE ANGLE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT APPEARS TO BE NEAR SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE. MOIST AXIS WAS DRAWN ABOUT 35-45 NM AHEAD OF FRONT OVER MOST OF AREA. 850 AND 925 MB UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED MOIST AXES AT THOSE LEVELS NEARLY COLLOCATED FROM PNC-MKC-PIA. 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS AND LATEST VWP/PROFILER WINDS INDICATED LLJ AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S NEAR OKC-COU-SBN LINE. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG SRN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME...S OF MOIST AXES AND N OF LLJ. MOIST ADVECTION...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS INCREASE COVERAGE...WHILE BAND TRANSLATES EWD 20-25 KT AND EMBEDDED CELLS MOVE FASTER NEWD. MODIFIED DVN/ILX/TOP/SGF RAOBS...ORD ACARS SOUNDING AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR MOIST AXIS...BUT ALSO INCREASING MLCINH LIKELY WITH EVENING DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SFC. THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL WITH TIME. MEANWHILE NEARLY PARALLEL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW TO CONVECTIVE PLUME SUPPORTS QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...LIKELY LIMITING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ATOP MOISTURE PLUME...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER NRN IL TO 35 KT NEAR MKC...WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SPORADIC SVR. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL THETAE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2012 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...T OP... LAT...LON 39399540 42418725 41048727 38139546 39399540 Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628

261. nigel20 3:45 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Levi32: This will be worth watching with interest over the next 2-3 months. Recently the Atlantic has experienced a bout of atmospheric stability in its tropical areas. This year, the pattern may make the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico more unstable and favorable for wetness than one would typically expect from a potential El Nino. It will be interesting to see if vertical instability will be able to stay near or above climatology as we head into the early summer. Vertical Instability is quite important right? I think there was low instabilty early on in the 2010 hurricane season....which cause average to below average activity upto about August. Correct me if I'm wrong Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

262. Asta 3:47 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Patrap: photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA s...... Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space. Okay- I'll admit it- I want to draw in the sky at dawn!!! Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

263. nigel20 3:49 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

264. aspectre 4:12 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
A video about Drifting Derelict Trawling Nets: Sea Death and Grey Whale Rescue Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

265. allancalderini 4:14 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Vertical Instability is quite important right? I think there was low instabilty early on in the 2010 hurricane season....which cause average to below average activity upto about August. Correct me if I'm wrong I think it was 2011 that is why we didn`t get a lot of hurricanes last year because there was low stability. Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2238

266. Jedkins01 4:15 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: I think Accuweather is great now; things started improving for them after they cut Bastardi. I still much prefer WU, but when I do from time to time have reason to visit Accuweather, and I can usually find what I need there with a little looking around. Fox News should hire Bastardi as their chief science adviser, lol. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420

267. KoritheMan 4:19 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting allancalderini: I think it was 2011 that is why we didn`t get a lot of hurricanes last year because there was low stability. Correct. Off hand I think 2010 experienced that initial reduction due to strong upper tropospheric shear, likely still lingering from 2009's decadent El Nino (recall how active the East Pacific was during that time, with two June major hurricanes, including a Category 5). Even though we had Alex develop into the second strongest June hurricane in the historical database during that year, that area of the Atlantic was really the only area with below normal vertical shear starting off. Incidentally, that is part of the reason why I expect more early season activity this year, followed by an abrupt die off in October due to the likelihood of El Nino. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15640

268. Jedkins01 4:20 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting jrweatherman: The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue. "Overdue" really doesn't exist in this context, its all mathematical probability. The chances of rolling 3 sixes is the same as 2 ones, no matter how many times you roll the dice. Tampa has a low probability(at least in modern history) of being hit, therefore it would make sense that it is rarely hit. We get snow here in the Tampa Bay area more than direct hit from a hurricane, that's all you need to know. People should be prepared when one finally does hit again but as rare as snow may be, snow in Tampa is more common than direct hurricane hits, take it or leave it, its true. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420

269. nigel20 4:21 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Good night all Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

270. nigel20 4:24 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: Correct. Off hand I think 2010 experienced that initial reduction due to strong upper tropospheric shear, likely still lingering from 2009's decadent El Nino (recall how active the East Pacific was during that time, with two June major hurricanes, including a Category 5). Even though we had Alex develop into the second strongest June hurricane in the historical database during that year, that area of the Atlantic was really the only area with below normal vertical shear starting off. Incidentally, that is part of the reason why I expect more early season activity this year, followed by an abrupt die off in October due to the likelihood of El Nino. Let me say thanks for the explaination KoritheMan...much appreciated. Good night guys Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4881

271. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:47 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
click image to zoom in pattern change coming Link Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

272. KoritheMan 4:49 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Link Gave up on trying to post images, did you? Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15640

273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:12 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: Gave up on trying to post images, did you? no Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:13 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:14 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
BRB Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

277. KoritheMan 5:26 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Cyclone2012: Really? So you're not expecting October to be active at ALL? Not even in the Western Caribbean Sea? HIGHLY DOUBTFUL!!!!!!! El Nino or not, October never disappoints and this year will be no different! I should have clarified. I didn't mean no storms at all, but probably something like 2002, where two tropical cyclones were observed (Lili and TD13). But it's not going to be nearly as active as 2005 or 2010, when we had insane levels of activity during that month. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15640

279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:45 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
well well well Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:12 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Cyclone2012: Hi, how are ya, keeper? =). ok going to sleep soon thundering and lightening here light stuff with rain temps on quick rebound and fall Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:18 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:20 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
three in a row right along the plate Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

286. OracleDeAtlantis 7:44 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
I wonder what new information we'll see come out of the 2012 National Hurricane Conference, besides, "don't tape the windows." If this year is anything like last year, I think the tape might not be a bad idea. After all, who would of thought to forecast a nuclear wind on March 1, 2011 curiously tied to a large earthquake? And you know, they even pulled the Daisy Girl ad last year, that explained the countdown from March 1st, so perfectly. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 ...

287. LargoFl 10:15 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Good morning folks!, another beautiful day in store for us here in central florida! hope you have great weather as well!..watched a very interesting story on history channel yesterday about the 1930's dust bowl drought in the midwest, god awful it was , the scenes, geez....but it was insightful, man himself, changing the weather. in a very Bad way...plant a tree everyone Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

288. trunkmonkey 11:00 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: I saw where a number of the regional NWS offices had performed similar analyses, and almost across the board the consensus was twofold: 1) Historically, locations which had an above-normal March tended to not have an above-average spring or summer overall, and, in fact, often had an overall spring that was cooler than normal; however... 2) This month's heat wave was so deep, widespread, long-lasting, and profoundly anomalous that forecasters weren't willing to wager on a cool spring and/or summer this time; they simply didn't know what to expect. Every once in a while I like what you post! Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 469

289. islander101010 11:32 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: "Overdue" really doesn't exist in this context, its all mathematical probability. The chances of rolling 3 sixes is the same as 2 ones, no matter how many times you roll the dice. Tampa has a low probability(at least in modern history) of being hit, therefore it would make sense that it is rarely hit. We get snow here in the Tampa Bay area more than direct hit from a hurricane, that's all you need to know. People should be prepared when one finally does hit again but as rare as snow may be, snow in Tampa is more common than direct hurricane hits, take it or leave it, its true. hope not miami is another example what would of happened if andrew was 50 miles north Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3069

290. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:38 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
A look at upcoming Severe Weather threats... Today: 5% Tornado (East Kansas) 15% Hatched Large Hail (East Kansas-Southwest Missouri) 15% Damaging Wind Tomorrow: Friday: Day 4-8 Discussion: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EWD EJECTION OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4 /SAT 3-31/ AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...EVEN MORESO THAN THE MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2012 Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25955

291. StormTracker2K 11:45 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
For people who thought this last cold snap was bad across the upper midwest & New England then wait as a more pronounced cold snap is coming and this looks to bring freezes all the way down to TN to NC early next week. Yikes!! Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

292. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:48 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: For people who thought this last cold snap was bad across the upper midwest & New England then wait as a more pronounced cold snap is coming and this looks to bring freezes all the way down to TN to NC early next week. Yikes!! I'm sorry, but that cannot be allowed. It is currently 41 �F. I've not seen morning temperatures like this in two/three weeks. It does not feel good either. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25955

293. StormTracker2K 11:50 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
This could be the knock out punch to all the fruit trees and fruits across the mid south. Very very bad if this does happen as it looks as if the models are converging on a strong push of cold air than the one we just had. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

294. StormTracker2K 11:52 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Post 292 I know I would post the models but the blog is screwed up. I can't even quote your comment. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

295. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:58 AM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: This could be the knock out punch to all the fruit trees and fruits across the mid south. Very very bad if this does happen as it looks as if the models are converging on a strong push of cold air than the one we just had. All they have is 40s/50s for lows in the south, 30s in the north, and highs in the 60s and 70s. I would not call this a strong push of cold air. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25955

296. GeorgiaStormz 12:02 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
Quoting uncwhurricane85: yeah snow on the i-95 corridor into southern v.a. hahahah i wish, but i dont see it happeneing either you sound like people before the blizzard of 93 Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

297. StormTracker2K 12:08 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
Post 295 if the models continue to fall into place then expect to see much lower numbers. If you remember this was the same issue last week and look this morning your at 41 which was not predicted by your NWS office this time last week. GFS and Euro overnight and this morning have seem to come into better agreement so we will have to see if this holds or do the models change again. I will say though further we go thru the week then you will know for sure what's coming. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

298. GeorgiaStormz 12:10 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
Who in the NE is ready for Snow Showers. Its been a while. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

299. StormTracker2K 12:12 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
Post 296 I think people are still thinking we are in a La Nina pattern but that's not the case now that we are nearing Neutral conditions. I believe Aussie posted something about this yesterday afternoon. First half of April is looking stormy whether it be from heavy sonw events or severe wx. People in the south may want to watch this trend as well as we could have another case of active tornado outbreaks coming thru. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

300. StormTracker2K 12:15 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
Post 274 shows it all look at all the moisture building across the C & Eastern Pacific. This is hwat will jump start the southern branch. Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

301. StormTracker2K 12:17 PM GMT on March 28, 2012
The lake Effect snow machine turned back on? Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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