Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973
Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.
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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.
The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.
The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Didn't buy a single ticket. Just throwing up the results.
OH MY GOD I WON!!!!!
*wakes up sweating*
Got 1 number though :) Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear bombs.
That's why you don't spend it until after April 15 and be sure to spend it all before the next tax season...
Problem Uncle Sam?
Yeah. Didn't win. Of course. Odds are 1 in 176 million.
Although it's almost certain somebody is very happy given the number of tickets purchased.
Yeah...there is a a higher chance that one will be hit by lightning when compared to winning the lotto
Actually I heard there is a better chance of being struck twice by lightning than winning it.
There was the drawing of the lotto in Puerto Rico tonight but there were no winners.The jackpot for next Wednesday will be $18 Millon. The winning numbers were 5-8-16-19-36-42.
Link
Time and money are better spent elsewhere.
My bad...it is also possible that there will not be a winner
So i just need to 176million x2 = 352 million lotto tickets and hope thats enough to get me 640 million.
Or else im screwed for the rest of my life.
Everyone have a good night.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
12:00 PM FST March 31 2012
======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (1002 hPa) located at 13.2S 160.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation.
Organization has improved slightly in past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the last 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Tropical depression 19 is moving into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Most global models have picked up the system and move it southeast with further intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
That same history says that the current warming is remarkable for the rate at which it is warming. ;)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 31 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.7N 109.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.3N 107.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- South China Sea --
45 HRS: 11.1N 106.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Vietnam --
69 HRS: 12.5N 103.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
EDIT: You are right. Misread "inside of" as "of".
Good evening, Ossqss. We now see that it took thousands of years for those glaciers to recede since the last ice age. Modern technology has it made it possible to do so in a much shorter time now.
The older I get, the more I realize that's how the world works. Those who insistently boast of being the most correct and most fair often aren't what they preach either.
Obama might technically be a Capitalist, but a glass of Orange juice that is 5% full is also still technically a glass of orange juice :)
LOL, I know Cross City is a cold spot at night during the winter but I know it wouldn't be hitting 32 under these weather conditions, lol
Its hard to call the odds because most people don't try to be targets of lightning the way people go crazy for lottery tickets lol.
However if you go outside repeatedly in Florida during intense lightning storms, I would probably bet that hospitalization or death will eventually find you, lol.
Seriously, the chances of getting hit by lightning aren't quite as low as some make it sound, most people take shelter during lighting, if everyone went in gathered in under strong thunderstorm with numerous cloud to ground hits, a lot more people would be hit.
Imagine how many more people would be hit by lightning if people tried to get hit as much as people attempt to win the lottery?
I SEE A PINHOLE EYE!!!!
And with that; I bid you all, buenos noches.
hahahaha unfortunately I do
I actually have been on these blogs since 2004. I just made a new name in 2008(same name accept "01" added on the end). The reason why I did that is because I got spammed horribly day after day by some crazy user in WU private mail so I got tired of it and started over with a new name.
I joined during the 2004 hurricane season right after Charley. After Charley they had a local news story about this site or something like that. But then I was 13 and I was desperately hoping for weather forums, I went nuts when I found this site. Plus all the great weather products as well. This place has changed quite a bit in 8 years, lol.
Ya got yer umbreller handy, Pat?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
747 PM CDT Friday Mar 30 2012
Sounding discussion...
no problems with this evenings flight. Multi-layered cloudiness
continues. The precipitable water value was at 1.44 inches. The low cumulus
clouds have bases just above 2k feet with the altocumulus and
altostratus at over 10k. The cirrostratus was located around 19k
feet. The lifted index of -5.3 continues to indicate large
instability. Mean low level winds from the surface through 5k
feet are from the south-southwest at 15kts. From 5k to 10k feet
the wind veer and are southwesterly at 17kts. The freezing level
is just under 13k feet.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM CDT Friday Mar 30 2012/
Short term...
the mesoscale convective vortex that affected the area overnight and early this morning
was was centered over eastern Mississippi this afternoon and was
continuing to move east northeast toward western Alabama. Another
well defined mesoscale convective vortex feature was over the northwest Gulf and moving
toward Louisiana. Although only isolated convection has been
occurring across the forecast area so far this afternoon...this
feature will have the potential to enhance convection activity
later this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as
it passes through. The atmosphere across the area is quite
unstable....so any thunderstorms that do develop will have the
potential to be strong.
Long term...
in the wake of this second mesoscale convective vortex feature...the models forecast a
shortwave trough to move across the central Gulf Coast region
Saturday into Saturday evening. Although the atmosphere will be
somewhat drier on Saturday...it will still be quite unstable so any
thunderstorms that do develop could again be on the strong side.
For the last half of the weekend...dry weather should prevail as
ridging at the middle and upper levels prevails.
For the beginning of the work week...rain chances will be on the
increase again. A strong upper trough that will be moving into the
western U.S. Over the weekend will close off into an upper low
over the southern rockies early in the work week. A lead shortwave
is forecast to traverse the western Gulf Coast region and lower
Mississippi vally Monday and Monday night. This should result in
the development of scattered convection Monday afternoon and
Monday night. A better chance of convection will occur Tuesday
into Tuesday night as the closed low moves east across the
Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This will
push a cold front across the forecast area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) is an outlier in being considerable slower in
moving the closed low eastward than the GFS and Gem. Plan to go
with the faster solution. At this time it appears that there could be
some severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday evening with strong
lift...a very unstable atmosphere and good direction and speed
shear forecast during the period.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 31 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.7N 109.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4N 107.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- South China Sea --
48 HRS: 11.2N 105.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Cambodia --
72 HRS: 12.6N 103.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) -- Overland Cambodia --
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
http://hint.fm/wind/index.html
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
18:00 PM FST March 31 2012
======================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (1001 hPa) located at 14.6S 162.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.
Organization has improved slightly in past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent to the equatorward of the system center but has not developed over the low level circulation center. Low level circulation center is difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is steered southeastwards by the lower tropospheric westerlies south of the subtropical ridge into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.
Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with further intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
"'At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites,' says Ashcraft. 'I could see them from two states away'" He also recorded VLF and shortwave radio emissions from the cluster, which you can hear as the soundtrack to this video.
Sprites are electrical discharges that come out of the top of thunderclouds, opposite ordinary lightning bolts which plunge toward Earth. Sprites can tower as high as 90 km above ground. That makes them a form of space weather as they overlap the zone of auroras, meteors, and noctilucent clouds.
Because they are associated with lightning, sprites are most often seen in summer months, 'but in the past few days sprites have been reported in Texas (particularly near the Mexican border) as well as here in New Mexico,' notes Ashcraft."
Nice video here
http://news.yahoo.com/mumbai-miami-list-big-weath er-disasters-150359548.html
But the good news is:
Maple Sugaring Safe from Climate Change, For Now
http://news.yahoo.com/video/burlingtonwptz-181908 96/maple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-change-for-now -28587016.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fburlingtonwptz- 18190896%252Fmaple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-chan ge-for-now-28587016.html
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 31 2012 - 12Z MON APR 02 2012
...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRAS...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
A STORM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE COASTAL AREAS
... THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER ... AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN PRODUCING COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE ... A WEAK STORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST. RAIN
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION ... MORNING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ... ON SUNDAY MORNING ... WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY MORNING MOVING EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY ALSO BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING TOO.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
Interesting to note this TS is still south of 10N....
"A new report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development paints a grim picture of the world in 2050 based on current global trends."
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