Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns
Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.
Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.
Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."
Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.
Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.
"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.
Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.
Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.
References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.
Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595
Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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if i was to ask you why do you believe he is stupid what would be your response?
Can't we just all agree that both sides are terrible. ;)
Lincoln NWS. Gonna be an active day for me...:D
Not clever, "hiding" the 4 letters within a name ain't clever at all.
Lack of zoning laws seems to be much more common in these parts of Louisiana compared to other places that I have lived. We can keep referring to it being a problem caused by this "government" boogeyman, or we can accept the fact that those making the laws through government were elected by us, and by not wanting government to tell us where to build our houses/stores/factories, we've helped bring this problem upon ourselves.
Bottom line is to exterminate the poor and low end middle class. That's why college tuition keeps going thru the roof, they only want the rich to be educated. It's like soilent green but in a different way.
Do you work at a National Weather Service?
Dislike the man
But respect the office he holds
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON D4...THE SERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM GA TO SC BY 00Z
SAT..THEN OFFSHORE. DESPITE LIKELY ONGOING RAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR DESTABILIZATION INLAND WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVER GA
AND SC HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL AND SHORT
LIVED.
TO THE W...MODELS SHOW A JET MAX WITH THE WRN TROUGH EJECTING IN A
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SAT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SELY SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH 40S F DEWPOINTS FROM NEB INTO SD...AND MID
50S F TO NEAR 60 F OVER OK. THE GFS SUGGESTS SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...RESULTING
IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL
SUGGESTS FLOW THAT FAR S WILL BE WEAKER. THEREFORE...A NARROW ZONE
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS/OK/TX DRYLINE...BUT
POOR MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA AT
THIS TIME.
SOME ADDITIONAL LOW END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO SAT/D5 WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX INTO SRN MO.
FROM D6 ONWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL CANADA...THEN IS LIKELY TO DIG A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM D7-D8 AND BEYOND.
..JEWELL.. 04/03/2012
Oh, definitely.
I've pointed that out myself previously.
It's absolutely the case, and I was not joking.
I'm fully convinced that was no coincidence in writing, but a fully developed political metaphor, and it's perhaps more true at this point in history than at any time since slavery was abolished...
Another well thought out, highly informed piece of political commentary.
Heck, southeast Louisiana strawberries have been getting picked for several weeks now. Good strawberries... ~$1.50/pint.
Here they are $10 for a gallon bucket, and few are picking them. Even less people after spring break.
You read my mind.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScottLincoln/sho w.html
:)
I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.
That sir, is why I am homeschooled :D
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ARKANSAS...
OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION AFFECTING
CALHOUN...UNION AND BRADLEY COUNTIES
RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.
OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION...SELECT RIVER AND LAKES AHPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.
EVERYONE WITH PROPERTY OR OTHER INTEREST ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS
CHANGE...LOOK FOR RIVER FORECAST OR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR USE IN MAKING
INFORMED DECISIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&
ARC011-013-139-040528-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.120321T1915Z.120330T1200Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY THE WATER ELEVATION WAS 84.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD ELEVATION IS 79.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AN ELEVATION OF 83.5
FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN
OUACHITA RIVER
THATCHER L 79 84.1 TUE 07 AM 83.5 83.0 82.4 81.8 81.2
$$
Mid Late Afternoon Storms Interior
Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow both east and west coast sea breezes to form and push toward the middle of the state. The sea breezes are expected to collide over an area from around Lake George and Pierson in Northwest Volusia south to the Orlando area and Lake Kissimmee. Colder temperatures aloft at around 15, 000 feet will enhance the potential for storms that will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, small hail and frequent lightning from late afternoon through the sunset time frame.
Posted by Bob Wimmer
Does anyone hold a clue as to what might have been causing the delay (compared to average) of the start of the melting season for the past couple of years? Also, this year seems to be no exception.
This probably has no significant effect on the melting season since last year's September extent was very close to the record low. I actually still strongly believe the Arctic ice extent will be extremely close to the record low this year for obvious reasons (ie: low volume, plenty of one-year ice). I just find it peculiar that the melting of the ice seems to be delayed by a probable cause...
What if in one of the next couple of years, the ice starts to melt very early as opposed to recent years? Will the record low get obliterated by as much as 500,000km^2 or even 750,000km^2? (questions thrown in the air... no need for an answer)
Way to overgeneralize.
So they have ESRI ArcMap at the NWS?
This is the same state (Louisiana) where people were allowed to build at elevations lower than the emergency spillway of a lake that was built in the 1950s for flood control/water supply. Now when their homes flood, it can be called "flooding" even though the filling of a flood control reservoir is typically just called "flood control." There is now a push to construct a new spillway at the reservoir to let more water through and minimize the chance of it rising high enough to flood homes. Of course allowing more water through will reduce its effectiveness at being a flood control reservoir.
Somewhere along the chain, someone probably dropped the ball. Unfortunate for residents to be caught in on it nonetheless.
Actually... watch TX later today ;)
So i suppose i know nothing since i never went to public school.
So soooo Sad :(
Yes. I use it heavily. At least several times a week, if not several times a day.
This is the same disturbance that brought you rain yesterday.
I need to contact Houston NWS, I live right near it. Wonder if NWS actually have full time GIS staff, do they?
i could tell this was a liberal blog a month after i joined. I guess thats why i am seen as the 'bad guy' to alot of people here. Makes me wonder sometimes. But my family enjoys my blogs so im still here, lol
are you homeschooled?
"On average, Arctic sea ice has historically peaked around March 6, but the maximum extent has tended to occur later in the month in recent years. The cause for the later peak is unknown, but NSIDC's Walt Meier suspects it might be related to the minimum sea ice extents that occur each September.
"There are constraints on how long Arctic sea ice can keep growing in late March," Meier says, citing springtime sunlight and rising temperatures. "But since Arctic sea ice has melted so much in the summers, it could be that the ice has more room to grow at the end of the season." Over the last decade, Arctic sea ice extents in September have set record lows three times, and the 2011 minimum nearly tied the 2007 record low."
Meier points out something else about Arctic sea ice extent. "The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the last nine years, since 2004," he says.
Although Arctic sea ice has continued to grow later in the season, the ice has been thin—only about 10 to 30 centimeters (4 to 12 inches) thick at most, Meier explains. "So it will all melt away very quickly. I don’t expect the late-season growth spurt to have a big effect on sea ice extent next summer."
That is absurd.
yes.
You are not forced, you can move.
People are not responsible nor are they independent. They have allowed the government to grow so much that it requires taxes and fees to provide the services demanded.
Housing is not a right and has nothing to do with "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness". That phrase is based on individuals having the freedom to pursue those ideals. However, most people want the government to provide those things and thus where we find ourself today.
I agree on that part
Government will buy you out whatever it's appraised as
Republican meteorologist Paul Douglas: conservatives should embrace climate science
Great post! Like I said eventhough I don't agree with everything Obama has during his first term he is still the better guy for job as the republicans that are running are not the brightest.
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