CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.
Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:
1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.
2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.
How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.
Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.
Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
yah on friday there were a few warnings and some heavy rain, today i am in tampa.
The beach was nice and warm, tomorrow i go back to GA.
It is actually a little chilly right now.
April 6, 2012
Pay no attention to the man behind this curtain...
LOL
open it and you may find me in a dress
Keeper,that is a notable difference that for sure will cause the EPAC season to be very active.
That's a big difference
Glad that we are expecting a quiet season this year.
Happy Easter everybody!
The wind shear in the central and eastern tropical atlantic is very high at the moment
April 5, 2012
Happy Easter to you too.Don't let down your guard because forecasters are predicting an average to below average hurricane season...though we may have less storm when compared to the past two hurricane season, we may get more impacts this season
You are right...the sst anomaly chart gives one a better idea of what is happening
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
MDZ003>005-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-
080930-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.120408T0600Z-120408T1300Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
907 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
* TEMPERATURES...29 TO 32 DEGREES.
* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION THAT IS SENSITIVE
IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
SMZ
Good night hurricanehunter27
Good comparison, Keep. December is a good month to use, because that is how the term "El Nino began. As most of you know it means the "Christ Child" The local fisherman noticed this phenomenon of cooling waters and warming around December near Christmas, hence the term.
USGS issues announcement about polar bears with oozing sores, hair loss in Alaska Govt testing for radiation 3 of 4 captured yesterday affected Similar symptoms as recent mystery seal deaths (PHOTO & AUDIO)
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3162
They haven't been able to determine anything from the initial set of tests (which included radiation, biological, and toxicological tests) so have moved on to more advanced testing for possible vectors.
These types of symptoms have happened before, but the odd thing here is that this time it seems to be affecting different species at the same time. The affected areas seem to be the face, head, and neck which seems to rule out general radioactive or chemical exposure as that would typically affect the whole body as well internal organs (other than the patchy hair loss and skin lesions, the animals appeared healthy according to the article).
There are various diseases and parasites that afflict those species that can cause such symptoms. It could even be a type of fungal infection. But we'll have to wait and see what the more advanced tests reveal.
Updated with latest snow total
... Anchorage sets new seasonal snowfall record...
Snow has tapered off to flurries at the National Weather Service
forecast office and no additional accumulation is expected from
this storm. An additional 0.9 inches of snow fell between 4 PM
and 7 PM which brings the total for the day to 4.3 inches.
This makes the 2011-2012 winter season the snowiest ever with
a total of 134.5 inches. The previous seasonal snowfall record
was 132.6 inches set in 1954-1955.
Sea surface anomalies.
According to those 2 maps,which for some reason are not too clear in detail but the Mid to Southern Atlantic seems to have an isolated area of cold in/on it.
If that area should warm up then looking at the map in general there would be an immense area of warmer then normal waters from Iceland to Brazil, including the central Eastern Pacific.
Just a thought.
Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?
With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.
The SPC has highlighted a threat area for Saturday, day 7... This may be the first time ever they have highlighted an area on day 7
I am quite sure this isnt the first time, and it wont be the last.
It is interesting that D5 and D7 are over the same areas, and D6 should be somewhere around there.
If all three days are outbreaks, that would be bad.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SUN APR 08 2012
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ DIFFER IN THE TRACK
OF A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON D5/THU AND TO SOME DEGREE ON
D7/SAT...THESE MODELS DO AGREE IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS
FROM MID WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A NWLY FLOW
REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL TO SERN U.S. WILL PERSIST INTO D4/WED WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON D5 AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN STATES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR D5/THU...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM LATE D4/WED THROUGH D5. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
IS MAINTAINING A NRN TRACK BIAS WITH WEAKER FORCING ACROSS
KS/OK...THE WARM SECTORS IN EACH MODEL ARE SIMILAR. NORMALLY THESE
TYPES OF MODEL VARIANCES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WOULD RESULT IN NOT
INCLUDING A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. HOWEVER...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
DRY LINE...BUT WITH LOWER COVERAGE. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH THE
FORECAST FOR STRONGER WIND FIELDS PER THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO D5 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE D5/THU TROUGH AFFECT THE
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR D6/FRI...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A MORE
NRN TRACK ACROSS KS/NEB INTO IA...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATED A
GREATER THREAT FARTHER TO THE SSE.
FOR D7/SAT...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH
RESPECT TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR
SETUP ACROSS TX INTO KS. GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA SIMILAR TO D5 ACROSS OK/KS.
..PETERS.. 04/08/2012
(FWIW, it's scientists believe that the recovery--that is, the cooldown--resulted from an increase in biological activity and productivity, which in turn helped to transport carbon to the deep ocean. Such a process happens when global temperatures and CO2 levels are higher, and when there's an increased nutrient supply from higher continental weathering due to higher temperatures and rainfall. Of course, that was before billions of people were pumping out CO2 faster than even that speedier process could absorb it and sequester it away.)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-082100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCH ILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM- POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
511 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES 9 AM THIS MORNING WILL FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE PANHANDLES AND AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS DURING THESE TIMES WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS....BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
$$
JACKSON
Beware of the "quiet" years. It only takes one well-placed Hurricane to mess up your life.
Again thank you very much and continued success
in your endeavors.
Trunkmonkey.
Gorgeous day on tap here in the Mid-south, perfect for BBQs, egg rolling and rabbit hunting!
Apalachicola River
Chattahoochee - Gauge CHAF1 -9999.00 ft Old Data
Woodruff Dam (Usace) - Gauge WDRF1 44.62 ft Normal
Chattahoochee River
George W. Andrews L&D (Usace) - Gauge COLA1 76.76 ft Normal
W.F. George L&D (Usace) - Gauge FOGG1 105.86 ft Normal
Chipola River
Altha - Gauge ALTF1 9.40 ft Normal
Marianna - Gauge MALF1 6.97 ft Normal
Choctawhatchee River
Bellwood - Gauge BELA1 4.82 ft Normal
Caryville - Gauge CARF1 5.44 ft Normal
Geneva - Gauge GNVA1 3.76 ft Normal
Newton - Gauge NEWA1 4.22 ft Normal
Pittman - Gauge PITF1 9.92 ft Normal
Holmes Creek
Vernon - Gauge VRNF1 10.99 ft Normal
Pea River
Ariton - Gauge ARTA1 3.28 ft Normal
Elba - Gauge ELBA1 7.59 ft Normal
Samson - Gauge SSNA1 6.98 ft Normal
Spring Creek
Iron City - Gauge IRCG1 4.21 ft Normal
Reynoldsville - Gauge REYG1 76.86 ft Normal
all the rivers are at normal levels.
Yet the Drought monitor says this area is in extreme drought!
This site seems to be pretty good for news updates about Fukushima:
http://enenews.com/category/japan
It's a great looking day outside!
Viewing: 851 - 901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index