CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.
Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:
1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.
2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.
How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.
Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.
Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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One way to get around this is to get VirtualBox or VMWare player installed on your machine, get one of the free main-line linux virtual machines out there (distributed as appliances) and use firefox or chrome from within the VM.
Within the virtual machine you have admin rights so you can do whatever you want, and if it gets wrecked your normal OS remains unscathed.
This assumes of course that:
1. You can install a virtual machine manager like VirtualBox or VMWare player.
2. You have the hardware capable for running a VM (you usually want to set aside at least a GB or two and at least one cpu core to the VM).
The mainline linux distros like Ubuntu are pretty user friendly these days, and they usually come with firefox pre-installed.
Wind Tops 10 Percent Share of Electricity in Five U.S. States
J. Matthew Roney
A new picture is emerging in the U.S. power sector. In 2007, electricity generation from coal peaked, dropping by close to 4 percent annually between 2007 and 2011. Over the same time period, nuclear generation fell slightly, while natural gas-fired electricity grew by some 3 percent annually and hydropower by 7 percent. Meanwhile, wind-generated electricity grew by a whopping 36 percent each year. Multiple factors underlie this nascent shift in U.S. electricity production, including the global recession, increasing energy efficiency, and more economically recoverable domestic natural gas. But ultimately it is the increasing attractiveness of wind as an energy source that will drive it into prominence.
http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2012/ highlights27
April 5, 2012 SST
April 5, 2011 SST
Yes.
Hurricane Ekeka
January 28-February 9, 1992
Link
I am not sure about the central pacific but the earliest tropical storm to form in the Eastern Pacific was TS Alma on May 14, 1990. But it was tied by TS One-E again on May 14th in 1996.
Our current invest is well west of Hawaii now, suggesting it may move into the WPac fairly soon. In that area, tropical development in April is not unheard of.
2001
This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995
??
Magnitude 6.2 - NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2012 April 06 16:15:55 UTC
Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time
Friday, April 06, 2012 at 16:15:55 UTC
Saturday, April 07, 2012 at 02:15:55 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
4.534°S, 153.497°E
Depth
85.4 km (53.1 miles)
Region
NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances
52 km (32 miles) E of Taron, New Ireland, PNG
150 km (93 miles) ESE of Rabaul, New Britain, PNG
884 km (549 miles) NE of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2543 km (1580 miles) N of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.3 km (8.9 miles); depth +/- 9.5 km (5.9 miles)
Parameters
NST=247, Nph=247, Dmin=152.5 km, Rmss=1 sec, Gp= 18°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008xd7
Suspiciously? Haha I wouldn't pass a Southern Hemisphere storm off like that! It actually formed in the WPac; its far south formation is part of its record setting history.
"among the coolest" ;)
Thanks for posting the SST maps...over the last week or so the SST's have warmed a bit
March 30, 2012
That was real early
VIRGINIA BEACH
A plane crashed in Virginia Beach near Naval Air Station Oceana just after noon on Friday.
A Navy spokesman has confirmed to the media that the plane that crashed was an F/A-18 Hornet - a two-seat jet belonging to VFA (Strike Fighter Squadron) 106.
Sgt. Michelle Anaya of state police confirmed that the plane crashed.
Two pilots have been transported to the hospital. There has been no word on injuries according to Tim Riley of the Virginia Beach Police Department. He stated that the two pilots ejected from the jet.
Rescue crews from Virginia Beach are on the scene of a two-alarm fire at the Mayfair View apartment complex. There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.
Sean Pepe, of Norfolk, and Kenny Carver, of Hampton were driving on Interstate 264 when they saw the jet seem to be "floating" in the air before it went down behind some trees.
It was odd, but we didn't think anything of it, Pepe said. We thought it was doing maneuvers. We were watching the plane but didn't see the impact. We saw it go down and there was a 'boom.' Then there was black smoke everywhere."
Original story: Daily Press
Contributing: WTKR-TV
yeah, I don't get CSU's forecast at all.
Not only is this not in any way significantly cooler than last year this time, but several of the most important regions for development are actually 0.5C to as much as 3C warmer than last year!
I mean, one tiny "cold" pocket out east of 40W doesn't make much difference IMO.
Was wondering the same thing when I saw that. Crashed near an apartment complex
You were told yesterday, Sea Surface Temperatures are not the only factor that goes into predicting tropical cyclone formation.
Actually it crashed striaght into the apatment complex... It would be a miracle if no one is killed from that
I like this SST chart...can you post the march 30 chart so that I can compare it with this one
Could have been wx related, I guess.
It's getting cloudier here, but so far the real wx is staying over the extreme NW Bahamas.
Thanks for the answer.
Lets hope there are no injuries. On a military note (and I was not aware this plane was in Tallahassee for the week), I am at work yesterday and hear the rumble of a "propeller" airplane. Look out the window, and I see a WWII era B-29 cruising over Tallahassee at about 1000 ft........Watching a piece of History in the air; that plane looked great and it must be at least 65 years old........Amazing.
I know that, but still, just watch and see.
Even their El Nino rationale doesn't seem to matter much, because that's not likely till at least the end of July anyway.
Early Season Hurricanes tend to hit in the Gulf and Florida at some point in their lives.
Since even the most aggressive models in the most recent runs don't call for true "El Nino" conditions until the end of July or in August, and the consensus never develops an El Nino at all, it may not even be relevant.
Two months and everyone will have a better idea, but the graphics for model forecast of El Nino strongly suggests a true neutral, straight down the middle conditions for the peak of the season.
Plus we've tended to have absurdly early, large, and unpredictable "A" and "B" storms in some of the past several years.
Been on the Blog for 6 years and every year folks play the numbers prediction game. Nothing wrong with that, but, numbers are irrelevant at the end of the day whether El Nino/Neutral/La Nina........Trajectory and landfall location are what ultimately matter and in spite of very active seasons for the past several years, the US has been very lucky. Another Andrew in a low numbers year is all that it takes.
Not criticizing your position or analog stats; I think the gist of your position is that you disagree with the CSU study as to the timing of the La Nina. They are relying heavily on the current model support for La Nina conditions at some point during the year and we will not know until the season unfolds when/if the sheer will "cut off" the season so to speak....But no one has the crystal ball. The only thing that we do know, from decades of observation, it that a La Nina will create hostile conditions aloft to retard formation.
I am looking at the current drought conditions in The Sahel region in Africa and wondering if we will have a SAL issue this season which can also retard development.
It's all a wait and see.
The Gulf of Guinea remains extremely cold, which will probably push the ITCZ farther north than normal and get rid of some of that drought.
Agreed
Although, I will certainly write a more detailed and extensive blog in the coming days about the lack of real cold since the mid-1990's in Montreal, Quebec.
The lack of exceptional cold this winter season was remarkable but for the last 15 years it's become more usual than not. The lowest temperature recorded was a mere -24.1C(-11.4F).
Using 1971-2000 as a base period, the three coldest months combined (December, January and February) registered an average of 16.2 times a low of -20C(-4F) or less each year. The low temperature on any given day dropped below -20C three times in total this winter, which is 18.5% of normal.
Additionally, using the same months and base period, we saw an average of 0.5 days (nights might be more fitting) a year where the thermometer dipped below -30C(-22F). The temperature has never dropped below -40C(-40F) since record-keeping began in 1942.
The last time the mercury fell below -30C was in January 1994, twice. Precisely on the 27th and 26th. Interestingly, winter 1993-1994 registered three lows below -30C
Well, SST anomalies in the Great Lakes, Hudson Bay and the Atlantic near the coast of New England probably have a lot to do with that.
In the past couple years the anomalies have gotten as high as 5C or more on a few days out of the year, and regularly topped 3C on many occasions over widespread areas of ocean last year.
Here is another picture of 90C Or NOT
April 5, 2012 TCHP
Just because u put rocket fuel in a box doesnt mean itll fly into orbit...
Can you see the crash?
That looks sub-tropical at best for the moment.
The higher level winds above the circulation are cyclonic when they should be anti-cyclonic to be considered tropical.
The experts felt that there would be el niño by the peak months tearing apart the stormS, they have taken much more time than we have looking at the models and made their mind up, it's there best guess
That also means development further north...
I hope so too!
It's not like I'm sitting around hoping for bad weather anyway.
Lately I don't know what to expect of the weather during any given year, because last year the U.S. was only affected by two tropical systems and both of them caused extensive, even catastrophic flooding.
El Nino isn't even necessarily a good thing either. Some El Nino cause very bad inland flooding or droughts that don't even related to tropical systems.
the past decade in weather has been such that you really don't know what one should wish for or prefer anyway.
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