March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
A subject as important as Climate Change is a easy sell,and thus a High Category of information,for many.
It's on the equivalent of the banned books... i.e. high interest off limits topics...
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I'm looking at the GFS and NAM for tomorrow, and it appears we could have a decent tornado day, including the possibility of a large tornado or two.

I'd raise the TOR:CON to at least 7.

We may see a Moderate risk tomorrow for tornadoes alone.

I'll give a 10% hatched right now, but a 15% tornado probability may be needed.

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A subject as important as Climate Change is a easy sell,and thus a High Category of information,for many.
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Quoting weatherh98:


One day last summer it was like 98 every where except hammond, it was 104.


I do know some weird local phenomenon happens around here sometimes.

A dry line can form over Tangipahoa parish, even between Livingston and Hammond, and they can be getting flooded in Hammond and not a drop over here by the parish border.


Other freaky stuff like that happens all the time.

I don't know if it's something to do with the lakes, or of the interstates and highways generate some sort of heat island affect that changes humidity, etc.

It just happens more than what seems to make sense.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Here's something on Amazon I bet you didn't expect.

Books › Fiction › Erotica › "Global Warming & Climate Change"


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Link

live web cam kat iceland
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296


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Quoting RTSplayer:
Now see.

Hammond temperature:

73f : airport official
73.7: PWS on this site
74.8: My digital thermometer

2:35pm.

Now they are in much better agreement.


One day last summer it was like 98 every where except hammond, it was 104.
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Quoting jeffs713:

But what is good for the earth, may not be good for you, if you are near the earth's bowel movement.


I don't need to know what are planet does in the bathroom:)
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Now see.

Hammond temperature:

73f : airport official
73.7: PWS on this site
74.8: My digital thermometer

2:35pm.

Now they are in much better agreement.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Link

live web cam kat iceland
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The Hammond station is kind of notorious for being hotter than surrounding areas. I'm not sure if they have figured out if it is an actual phenomena or is a bias. It doesn't seem to happen all year, however.


Yes I'm aware:) Hammond makes me feel bad because I never even get close..
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751. MTWX
First Panhandle warning:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC341-375-112030-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0041.120411T1928Z-120411T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MOORE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MASTERSON...OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASTERSON...
FOUR WAY...
DUMAS...

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, the hail core went directly over me.

I don't have a smart phone so there won't be any pictures.

I suppose I got some gusts of maybe 50 to 60mph.

I got mostly pea size to dime sized hail.

there were several hail stones in the nickle to quarter size.



The quarter size stone was probably 3/8 to half inch thick in the third dimension, and very close to quarter size as a "disk".

So the radar estimates were almost perfect.


the hail did not "coat" the ground, though there was probably enough to have done that. It's just it was so hot from a few minutes earlier, and so much rain mixed with it that most of the stones melted very fast.

I got 0.6 inches rain.

Time is 2:16p.m.

So that's 1.2 inches per hour rainfall rate for real. Not bad again, radars.

Temperature on my thermometer is now 75.6f, so about 15f drop from what it said a few minutes before.


I missed out
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Right along the frontal boundary



yep, which it would make it here..
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Don't be in the bowl when it blows


That is why if you can help it, do not live in earth quake areas. I know that sounds unrealistic but I live in Houston because I can see when storms are coming.
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don't worry the KAT is gonna blow its top soon real soon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes but that "90 degrees in Texas" is expected at certain times of year and can be accurately forecasted over a week in advance. One can never know when earthquakes of this magnitude will occur. I'm telling you, I felt something off with nature and I felt Earthquake somewhere west of me. I know I said the places I did, which were incorrect, but I think I might be onto something here with this ability I have. The bad vibe I had from nature has changed now and is now calm.


Actually, that's not quite correct. The statistical frequency of earthquakes is fairly well known, and your prediction was very vague. West of you happens to lie the most geologically active region of the planet, so claiming that you had a feeling a big earthquake was going to happen sometime soon to the west of you basically guarantees that you are going to be right given the frequency distribution of earthquakes.

Now if you can nail your prediction down to a particular time and place and you can do that reliably, then you may want to contact your local university. But your current prediction certainly won't be winning any Randi prizes.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Storms are popping up from there all the way across Texas to the Red River. That boundary and the day time heating are igniting quite a bit of storms and more to come


Right along the frontal boundary

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Quoting weatherh98:


I have 83 in mandeville? I know Hammond is usually 3 or 4 degrees hotter but not that much


The Hammond station is kind of notorious for being hotter than surrounding areas. I'm not sure if they have figured out if it is an actual phenomena or is a bias. It doesn't seem to happen all year, however.
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Quoting jeffs713:

But what is good for the earth, may not be good for you, if you are near the earth's bowel movement.
I had a comment in response to this... but this is a family blog...
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Quoting jeffs713:

But what is good for the earth, may not be good for you, if you are near the earth's bowel movement.


Don't be in the bowl when it blows
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Think of it as bowel movement, it's good for you, and good for the earth

But what is good for the earth, may not be good for you, if you are near the earth's bowel movement.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
GPS is good for determining deformation, or slow creeping of a fault. It is not good for determining strain beyond the immediate surface. If the surface moves a foot, but 3 miles down it doesn't move at all... there is your strain.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting RitaEvac:


Storms are popping up from there all the way across Texas to the Red River. That boundary and the day time heating are igniting quite a bit of storms and more to come
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when people hear volcano, they think of magma and eruptions..but they do more.............Volcanoes release more than 130 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. This colorless, odorless gas usually does not pose a direct hazard to life because it typically becomes diluted to low concentrations very quickly whether it is released continuously from the ground or during episodic eruptions. But in certain circumstances, CO2 may become concentrated at levels lethal to people and animals. Carbon dioxide gas is heavier than air and the gas can flow into in low-lying areas; breathing air with more than 30% CO2 can quickly induce unconsciousness and cause death. In volcanic or other areas where CO2 emissions occur, it is important to avoid small depressions and low areas that might be CO2 traps. The boundary between air and lethal gas can be extremely sharp; even a single step upslope may be adequate to escape death.
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First warning of the day...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PONCHATOULA...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF HAMMOND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9028 3020 9041 3014 9042 3012 9052
3017 9053 3020 9046 3026 9044 3028 9041
3030 9044 3031 9043 3034 9048 3029 9056
3039 9059 3046 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 337DEG 17KT 3034 9045

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Lots of little quakes is good for an active fault line. That indicates that the plates are moving gradually. It's the active faults that haven't shown any activity in a while that you need to be concerned. That indicates that pressure is building since there is nothing there to release it.

Lot's of little quakes in a volcanic region usually indicate magma movement and/or build up.


Think of it as bowel movement, it's good for you, and good for the earth
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Quoting LargoFl:
This from the LA Times..this is anzo California...........In the last 10 days, there have been nine earthquakes magnitude 3.0 and greater centered nearby.


Lots of little quakes is good for an active fault line. That indicates that the plates are moving gradually. It's the active faults that haven't shown any activity in a while that you need to be concerned. That indicates that pressure is building since there is nothing there to release it.

Lot's of little quakes in a volcanic region usually indicate magma movement and/or build up.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
Quoting bappit:
This is a bit speculative, but food for thought.
can you just imagine, a massive earthquake running up and down the middle of the USA?..geez, give me our hurricanes any day
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Ok, the hail core went directly over me.

I don't have a smart phone so there won't be any pictures.

I suppose I got some gusts of maybe 50 to 60mph.

I got mostly pea size to dime sized hail.

there were several hail stones in the nickle to quarter size.



The quarter size stone was probably 3/8 to half inch thick in the third dimension, and very close to quarter size as a "disk".

So the radar estimates were almost perfect.


the hail did not "coat" the ground, though there was probably enough to have done that. It's just it was so hot from a few minutes earlier, and so much rain mixed with it that most of the stones melted very fast.

I got 0.6 inches rain.

Time is 2:16p.m.

So that's 1.2 inches per hour rainfall rate for real. Not bad again, radars.

Temperature on my thermometer is now 75.6f, so about 15f drop from what it said a few minutes before.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
off topic but important if you are using windows xp...........................According to Microsoft marketing director Stella Chernyak that means the software giant will nix security updates, non-security hot-fixes and technical support after that date. So let the countdown begin. You now have less than two years to get your affairs in order and hightail it to more current software.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/10/death-wa tch-microsoft-to-kill-windows-xp-in-two-years/?int cmp=trending#ixzz1rlEv2fIZ
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This is a bit speculative, but food for thought.
Quoting Earthquake In Illinois Could Portend An Emerging Threat:

To the surprise of many, the earthquake on April 18, 2008, about 120 miles east of St. Louis, originated in the Wabash Valley Fault and not the better-known and more-dreaded New Madrid Fault in Missouri's bootheel.

The concern of Douglas Wiens, Ph.D., and Michael Wysession, Ph.D., seismologists at Washington University in St. Louis, is that the New Madrid Fault may have seen its day and the Wabash Fault is the new kid on the block.
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Quoting MTWX:


I think part of that is also because most of the tropical systems last year took that path, with not much activity in the gulf and southern Caribbean to churn up the cooler waters...
Actually I'd bet a part of the slower warming today has more to do with a lingering frontal boundary with associated cloud cover.... means the direct sunlight is not hitting the water, plus increased winds associated w/ the front.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually if that really was happening the ocean would more than likely boil away as oppose to draining into the earth and remaining as water in a liquid form it would turn into a gas state known as water vapour


Uh oh, massive killer GW
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111905Z - 112100Z

A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD ACROSS ERN NM...S AND W OF A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT EXTENDING NWWD OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
SERN/E CENTRAL CO. DAYTIME HEATING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DRIVING STEADY DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ATTM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED...AND THEREFORE ONLY A VERY MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LESS
ISOLATED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SUPPORT WW
ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE THREATS INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER E INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..GOSS.. 04/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33030401 32460586 34290604 36050588 37390629 38590578
38550473 38080383 37540325 34230315 33030401

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111905Z - 112100Z

A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD ACROSS ERN NM...S AND W OF A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT EXTENDING NWWD OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
SERN/E CENTRAL CO. DAYTIME HEATING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DRIVING STEADY DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ATTM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED...AND THEREFORE ONLY A VERY MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LESS
ISOLATED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SUPPORT WW
ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE THREATS INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER E INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..GOSS.. 04/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33030401 32460586 34290604 36050588 37390629 38590578
38550473 38080383 37540325 34230315 33030401
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Today's 12z run of ECMWF continues to show the low in the Central Atlantic.



144 hours:



120 Hours:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope I'm not developing breast cancer.I have pains in my chest.I may need to go to the doctor to check it out.My fathers side does have a history of having this cancer and that is what my Great-Grand-Mother died from.


Many things can cause pains in the chest, from muscle strains to indigestion. If it concerns you or if it is occurring in addition to other symptoms (shortness of breath, etc.) then by all means had to the doctors. But don't automatically assume the worst. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
218 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK...SARASOTA...AND LEE COUNTIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...

.THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ERC VALUES
ABOVE 35 ALONG WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN DURING THURSDAY.

FLZ048-049-052-060-121100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0008.120412T1600Z-120413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120412T0000Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-
218 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK...SARASOTA.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

&&

$$
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Quoting RitaEvac:


The ocean floor has opened up and the worlds entire ocean system is draining into it.....
actually if that really was happening the ocean would more than likely boil away as oppose to draining into the earth and remaining as water in a liquid form it would turn into a gas state known as water vapour
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
New Madrid fault may be under due.

Quoting Next Large Central US Earthquake May Not Be Along New Madrid Fault Lines:

Mian Liu, professor of geological sciences in the College of Arts and Science at MU, examined records from China, where earthquakes have been recorded and described for the past 2,000 years. Surprisingly, he found that during this time period big earthquakes have never occurred twice in the same place.

"The New Madrid faults in the central U.S., for example, had three to four large events during 1811-12, and perhaps a few more in the past thousand years. This led scientists to believe that more were on the way," Stein said. "However, high-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements in the past two decades have found no significant strain in the New Madrid area. The China results imply that the major earthquakes at New Madrid may be ending, as the pressure will eventually shift to another fault."
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
So much for the no snow no cold theory as this Cold Canadian air is rushing south today. I wish it would come to FL though as it's 86 right now but with low humidity.

85 here by me right now, and ditto on the rain chance..we need the rainy season to start real bad
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General Climatology

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Eastern Pacific basin extends to 140W.

The following figures and tables describe the progress of a typical hurricane season in terms of the total number of tropical systems and hurricanes produced throughout the year in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.

In the figures, curves represent the average cumulative production of all named tropical systems, all hurricanes, and those hurricanes which were Category 3 or stronger in those basins.

For example, by the beginning of September in an average year we would expect to have had four named systems, two of which would be hurricanes and one of which would be of category 3 or greater in strength.

The tables list benchmark dates when a given number of tropical systems, hurricanes, or category 3 storms should have been generated.


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Tendency to shift from Westerly to easterly cloud tops.... Weeks to see the first wave in the Atl. form...

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Negative tilted trough over the Pacific

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
... I don't want to say this, but I predicted this just a few days ago.... I said that I was feeling a Earthquake/Volcano/Tsunami based on how nature was giving me bad vibes... And now those are gone. Yes, I had an incorrect location (I said I was feeling CA, New Madrid, or Yellowstone), but the fact that I felt something coming scares me...

Below is the original unedited comment:


60. WxGeekVA 12:02 AM GMT on April 04, 2012 +2
Call me crazy, but i got a weird feeling something really bad is about to happen somewhere like an earthquake or volcano or the like... I don't know why, but the vibes I'm getting from nature are very ominous.




Sheer coincidence unless you've done this many times with an established record. You should check out the statistical frequency of various earthquakes here Link

Earthquakes, even large ones, occur relatively frequently so given a random guess and and an unspecified time window (and unspecified magnitude) you're going to be right a lot more often than you will be wrong. In fact, I can say with almost 100% certainty that within the next month, there will be at least one 6+M.

Of course, that kind of prediction is useless. If I could specify a time and location with that prediction and do it consistently, I would have the USGS banging down my door. :)


Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
Quoting RTSplayer:
Core hasn't got here just yet.

It got up to 75 reflectivity and radar estimated 1.7 to 1.9 inch per hour rainfall rates.

But I doubt anyone gets more than about 0.25 to 0.5 inch totals just because it's going to die or move on before then.

The core is very small and still a few miles north of me.

I only got a few drops so far.

Keep you posted.


I think they may miss me
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.