March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WindChills
5 meters? That's huge... There will be very significant damage with that
Katla's a pretty big deal. It's had some epic eruptions in it's geologic history.
16ft 3 inches
I retracted this, I think he is citing a fake source.
The news channels said nothing of the sort, and the tsunami was only a few inches.
Magnitude: 8.7 Mw
431 km (268 miles) SW (216 degrees) of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
Magnitude: 8.2 Mw
615 km (382 miles) SSW (211 degrees) of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
Almost 114miles a part.
A tsunami can travel at well over 970 kph (600 mph) in the open ocean - as fast as a jet flies. It can take only a few hours for a tsunami to travel across an entire ocean. A regular wave (generated by the wind) travels at up to about 90 km/hr
Not 50mph.
I just heard that they might be 2 seperate quakes and not an aftershock.
They don't move that fast on shore.
they slow down to several dozen miles per hour in most cases due to the topography.
Doesn't matter anyway, because the report was false.
Global warming is just a bunch of hot air. See in that cartoon, all that CO2 spewing from his mouth is already stirring up storm clouds.
Buoy off Indonesia
Buoy in Bay of Bengal
The ECMWF and the CMC are together in moving a trough/low with a moderate jet streak into the SE us
I rooting for the ECMWF, but the GFS has outperformed so far this year.
Hmmm while there is a massive news event going on thats all you can think of
Not even a hundredth of an inch for fire and drought affected south eastern states.
Now that's messed up. It's April for goodness sake.
Jakarta, Indonesia (CNN) -- A massive earthquake struck off the coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on Wednesday afternoon, triggering a tsunami alert for the Indian Ocean.
The quake struck about 434 kilometers (270 miles) southwest of Banda Aceh, the capital of Indonesia's Aceh province, and had a magnitude of 8.6, the U.S. Geological Survey said. It took place at a depth of 23 kilometers (14 miles).
A second quake, magnitude 8.2, occurred off the west coast of Sumatra about two hours later, the USGS said.
Gary Gibson from the Seismology Research Center in Melbourne, Australia, said the location of the second quake reduces the possibility of a tsunami.
There were no immediate reports of destruction or deaths Wednesday.
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said on local television that there were no reports of casualties or damage in Aceh.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami watch for the entire Indian Ocean, and the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency said it had put up a tsunami warning as well.
Sea level readings indicate a tsunami was generated, the warning center said. "It may already have been destructive along some coasts."
How are earthquake's measured?
The center also said that "when no major waves have occurred for at least two hours after the estimated arrival time or damaging waves have not occurred for at least two hours, then local authorities can assume the threat is passed." The center posted approximate arrival times for waves in different parts of the region, which were predicted for different times in different cities throughout the day.
Waves were reported at 1-meter (3.3-foot) amplitude offshore in Meulaboh, Indonesia, but in other cities they were reported at about a foot or less, according to the warning center.
British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that Britain "stands ready to help if required."
The first quake took place at 2:38 p.m. local time (4:38 a.m. ET).
Officials called on coastal residents in low-lying areas in the region to seek higher ground.
The power went out in Banda Aceh and residents were moving to higher ground, said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency.
The areas most at risk of a tsunami are coastal areas of Aceh, particularly the island of Simeulue, Prih Harjadi, an official for the Indonesian geophysics agency said on Metro TV.
The earthquake appears to have involved a horizontal movement rather than a vertical movement, so it is less likely that it will generate a tsunami, Gibson said.
He also said that the tremor took place a long way offshore and was therefore unlikely to have caused much damage itself
Except the sun will burn you to a crisp in 15 mins....and give you skin cancer.
There maybe some hope this time next week but that's a ways out and alot can change:(
EVALUATION
A SIGNIFICANT TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY THIS EARTHQUAKE.
HOWEVER...SEA LEVEL READINGS NOW INDICATE THAT THE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED OR IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS. THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI
WATCH ISSUED BY THIS CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED.
FOR ANY AFFECTED AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE OCCURRED FOR AT
LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME OR DAMAGING WAVES
HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES
CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL
STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.
AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE
ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION...THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
In fact, there was a return in the 50's less than an hour ago, but I can't tell whether that was the fire or something else...maybe it was an aircraft fighting the fire...
I figure that things out of control.
What the heck is that!
Yesterday's daily ratio was still 4.4 to 1 hot vs cold though.
aftershock party for next 24hrs
Thats humor.Its a wonderful thing. Sadly its not well understood here anymore.
We'll probably see at least one more 7+
You do realize that tsunami waves don't come in like that, outside of hollywood, right? A 10-foot wave (which is pretty big for a tsunami) would actually come in over several minutes, as a series of regular ocean waves that doesn't recede much between waves.
When the SPC mentions helicities specifically, bad things tend to happen.
Also a frost all the way down to Atlanta, and a freeze in NW Georrgia could damage crops.
nope sigh
I will be looking at the increasing tornado threat in the Plains through Sunday. Looks like things could get wild.
Absolutely. I wasn't trying to deter awareness to the fact that we are at just as much risk as other areas. As a matter of fact, the Cascadia fault zone is at high risk for a major quake. That area not only has a history of major quakes (as it sits on a subduction zone), but it also has a history of large tsunami, too. Add that in with Mt. Rainier sitting over the Seattle-Tacoma area, and the NW coast is at risk for lots of disasters.
Heck, just going through seismic and earth related risks, we have quite a few risk zones.
1. Cascadia fault zone, for reasons I described above.
2. The New Madrid fault zone - its pushing its normal cycle for quakes, and is becoming more densely populated
3. Alaska sits on a major subduction zone.
4. San Francisco sits on a pile of jello that straddles a major fault complex.
5. The entire Los Angeles Basin is in a similar situation as San Francisco, but even more densely populated.
6. Hawaii, due to its unique position in the middle of the Pacific, can get tsunami waves from anywhere on the "ring of fire".
7. Alaska also has active volcanoes, any one of which can let loose a nasty ash cloud.
8. The entire Pacific and Atlantic coasts are at risk for a tsunami wave (more so on the Pacific coast based on history, but both are at risk)
9. Yellowstone, as a "supervolcano" can theoretically let loose at any time in an eruption that would make Mt. St. Helens look like a sneeze.
It actually depends on the topography.
there are different types of tsunamis, and the waves will be altered in different ways depending on the sea floor and the shapes of bays and stuff.
Tsunami waves CAN rise up and "break" just like wind driven waves in some cases, for example if it goes over a small peninsula or reef, it will shoot up and produce very tall breakers.
On the other hand, some tsunamis in some locations can just run up on shore as a long wave "training effect", much like a river just flowing until it runs out of momentum from gravity and friction (which cane take a very long time as we saw in Japan last year).
Some of each of these types of tsunami waves were caught on video in the 2004 tsunami.
Rock and roll?
I kid, I kid. But if the building is up to code then there shouldn't be much to worry about except in the case of really powerful tornadoes. Tall buildings are built out of concrete and steel and can take quite a beating.
That being said, you might want to move into the stairwells to avoid flying debris.
Yep. Combine that with the nature of ocean waves (and how they batter solid objects), and you can get some serious destruction, as we saw in Japan last year.
You are right on that. But... based on that picture, the "wave" is breaking at something easily approaching 30+ feet... which is completely unrealistic (especially with the topography of the west coast), outside of a major meteor strike in the Pacific.... in which case you have bigger issues to be concerned with.
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