March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The official thermometer is saying 81f.
However, on radar, it's now obvious to me that the official weather site was heavily shaded by the pop-up thunderstorm to our north this entire time.
Perhaps the PWS is between them and me.
I can hear the thunderstorm coming, but it's not yet raining here.
Maybe it really was that much hotter here...
This widespread cool weather is welcome, I guess?
Warmth has certainly been king in my area in Montreal, Quebec for the past couple of months.
Records go back to 1942
Our last seasonable month was October 2011 but since then,
November 2011 was the 1st warmest on record.
December 2011 was the 7th warmest on record.
January 2012 was tied 11th warmest on record.
February 2012 was the 6th warmest on record.
March 2012 was the 2nd warmest on record.
April 2012 is seasonable so far...
Actually our last below average month was back in May 2011. Since then, June through September 2011 were above normal with July 2011 standing out at 2nd warmest on record.
Like wise here, it's getting darker
First pop up of the year!!!
72 reflectivity, and VIL might be in the upper 40's to low 50's in isolated pixels, hard to say.
Says 90% chance of hail with max size 0.75 inch.
I went out side to get the mail, massive cumulonimbus are heading my way.
first?
because we had 2 1/2 weeks of them in mid March.
current max tops = 40k feet
Top Ten Montana Weather Events of the 20th Century
Yes
It got up to 75 reflectivity and radar estimated 1.7 to 1.9 inch per hour rainfall rates.
But I doubt anyone gets more than about 0.25 to 0.5 inch totals just because it's going to die or move on before then.
The core is very small and still a few miles north of me.
I only got a few drops so far.
Keep you posted.
Edit: heavy rain just started as I posted this.
1:56P.M.
I think they may miss me
Sheer coincidence unless you've done this many times with an established record. You should check out the statistical frequency of various earthquakes here Link
Earthquakes, even large ones, occur relatively frequently so given a random guess and and an unspecified time window (and unspecified magnitude) you're going to be right a lot more often than you will be wrong. In fact, I can say with almost 100% certainty that within the next month, there will be at least one 6+M.
Of course, that kind of prediction is useless. If I could specify a time and location with that prediction and do it consistently, I would have the USGS banging down my door. :)
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Eastern Pacific basin extends to 140W.
The following figures and tables describe the progress of a typical hurricane season in terms of the total number of tropical systems and hurricanes produced throughout the year in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
In the figures, curves represent the average cumulative production of all named tropical systems, all hurricanes, and those hurricanes which were Category 3 or stronger in those basins.
For example, by the beginning of September in an average year we would expect to have had four named systems, two of which would be hurricanes and one of which would be of category 3 or greater in strength.
The tables list benchmark dates when a given number of tropical systems, hurricanes, or category 3 storms should have been generated.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
218 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK...SARASOTA...AND LEE COUNTIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...
.THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ERC VALUES
ABOVE 35 ALONG WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN DURING THURSDAY.
FLZ048-049-052-060-121100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0008.120412T1600Z-120413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120412T0000Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-
218 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
* AFFECTED AREA...HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK...SARASOTA.
* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.
PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.
&&
$$
Many things can cause pains in the chest, from muscle strains to indigestion. If it concerns you or if it is occurring in addition to other symptoms (shortness of breath, etc.) then by all means had to the doctors. But don't automatically assume the worst. :)
144 hours:
120 Hours:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111905Z - 112100Z
A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD ACROSS ERN NM...S AND W OF A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT EXTENDING NWWD OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
SERN/E CENTRAL CO. DAYTIME HEATING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DRIVING STEADY DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ATTM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED...AND THEREFORE ONLY A VERY MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LESS
ISOLATED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SUPPORT WW
ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE THREATS INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER E INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..GOSS.. 04/11/2012
ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33030401 32460586 34290604 36050588 37390629 38590578
38550473 38080383 37540325 34230315 33030401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111905Z - 112100Z
A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD ACROSS ERN NM...S AND W OF A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT EXTENDING NWWD OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
SERN/E CENTRAL CO. DAYTIME HEATING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DRIVING STEADY DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ATTM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED...AND THEREFORE ONLY A VERY MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LESS
ISOLATED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SUPPORT WW
ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE THREATS INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER E INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..GOSS.. 04/11/2012
ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33030401 32460586 34290604 36050588 37390629 38590578
38550473 38080383 37540325 34230315 33030401
Uh oh, massive killer GW
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/10/death-wa tch-microsoft-to-kill-windows-xp-in-two-years/?int cmp=trending#ixzz1rlEv2fIZ
I don't have a smart phone so there won't be any pictures.
I suppose I got some gusts of maybe 50 to 60mph.
I got mostly pea size to dime sized hail.
there were several hail stones in the nickle to quarter size.
The quarter size stone was probably 3/8 to half inch thick in the third dimension, and very close to quarter size as a "disk".
So the radar estimates were almost perfect.
the hail did not "coat" the ground, though there was probably enough to have done that. It's just it was so hot from a few minutes earlier, and so much rain mixed with it that most of the stones melted very fast.
I got 0.6 inches rain.
Time is 2:16p.m.
So that's 1.2 inches per hour rainfall rate for real. Not bad again, radars.
Temperature on my thermometer is now 75.6f, so about 15f drop from what it said a few minutes before.
Lots of little quakes is good for an active fault line. That indicates that the plates are moving gradually. It's the active faults that haven't shown any activity in a while that you need to be concerned. That indicates that pressure is building since there is nothing there to release it.
Lot's of little quakes in a volcanic region usually indicate magma movement and/or build up.
Think of it as bowel movement, it's good for you, and good for the earth
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
* AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PONCHATOULA...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF HAMMOND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3030 9028 3020 9041 3014 9042 3012 9052
3017 9053 3020 9046 3026 9044 3028 9041
3030 9044 3031 9043 3034 9048 3029 9056
3039 9059 3046 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 337DEG 17KT 3034 9045
$$
Storms are popping up from there all the way across Texas to the Red River. That boundary and the day time heating are igniting quite a bit of storms and more to come
But what is good for the earth, may not be good for you, if you are near the earth's bowel movement.
Don't be in the bowl when it blows
The Hammond station is kind of notorious for being hotter than surrounding areas. I'm not sure if they have figured out if it is an actual phenomena or is a bias. It doesn't seem to happen all year, however.
Right along the frontal boundary
Actually, that's not quite correct. The statistical frequency of earthquakes is fairly well known, and your prediction was very vague. West of you happens to lie the most geologically active region of the planet, so claiming that you had a feeling a big earthquake was going to happen sometime soon to the west of you basically guarantees that you are going to be right given the frequency distribution of earthquakes.
Now if you can nail your prediction down to a particular time and place and you can do that reliably, then you may want to contact your local university. But your current prediction certainly won't be winning any Randi prizes.
That is why if you can help it, do not live in earth quake areas. I know that sounds unrealistic but I live in Houston because I can see when storms are coming.
yep, which it would make it here..
I missed out
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC341-375-112030-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0041.120411T1928Z-120411T2030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MOORE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MASTERSON...OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH OF DUMAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASTERSON...
FOUR WAY...
DUMAS...
Viewing: 701 - 751
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