March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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BREAKING NEWS:::::::
There are reports that sea levels in the area have indicated that a Tsunami has been generated and has most likely already devastated parts of Indonesia and should reach Thailand around 7:40 ET
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree with you, but she did say that... India's tsunami warning center said they were expecting near 20 foot waves though... Plenty to cause massive destruction
20 foot waves in India would be larger than seen there after the 2004 quake, which was considerably more capable of generating a massive tsunami than this one was. Again, that just doesn't seem likely. But, as with so many other things, I guess we'll see; the PTWC says, "SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED", though there's no information about size.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Went to the USGS site, they don't have it listed!

Wonder what's going on there?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ usc000905e#summary
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A small tsunami has been confirmed... no news on if there have been any bigger waves
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's really no chance of that happening.. At any rate, telephone and Twitter messages continue to pour out of areas that would have been struck already, and no destructive tsunami has yet appeared.

I am glad that people are taking this one seriously, though.

I agree with you, but she did say that... India's tsunami warning center said they were expecting near 20 foot waves though... Plenty to cause massive destruction
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Went to the USGS site, they don't have it listed!

Wonder what's going on there?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Amy Vaughn, a spokesperson for the USGS, has expressed fears that a tsunami similar in scale to the 2004 event could be on its way
There's really no chance of that happening.. At any rate, telephone and Twitter messages continue to pour out of areas that would have been struck already, and no destructive tsunami has yet appeared.

The pager data for this quake--an estimate of damage and destruction based on previous events, geography, quake type, etc.--says the total damage will amount to a million or two, and deaths should be in the single digits.

I am glad that people are taking this one seriously, though.
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Amy Vaughn, a spokesperson for the USGS, has expressed fears that a tsunami similar in scale to the 2004 event could be on its way
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
000
WEIO21 PHEB 110845
TSUIOX

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0845Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

INDONESIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / AUSTRALIA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
SEYCHELLES / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / OMAN / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / BANGLADESH / TANZANIA / MOZAMBIQUE /
KENYA / CROZET ISLANDS / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0839Z 11 APR 2012
COORDINATES - 2.0 NORTH 92.5 EAST
LOCATION - OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
MAGNITUDE - 8.7

EVALUATION

EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A
WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN AFFECT COASTLINES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.

HOWEVER - IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS
WATCH IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AUTHORITIES IN
THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
INDONESIA SIMEULUE 2.5N 96.0E 0921Z 11 APR
BANDA_ACEH 5.5N 95.1E 0931Z 11 APR
SIBERUT 1.5S 98.7E 0941Z 11 APR
PADANG 0.9S 100.1E 1017Z 11 APR
BENGKULU 3.9S 102.0E 1038Z 11 APR
CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 1205Z 11 APR
BANDAR_LAMPUNG 5.7S 105.3E 1213Z 11 APR
BALI 8.7S 115.3E 1253Z 11 APR
KUPANG 10.0S 123.4E 1338Z 11 APR
BELAWAN 3.8N 98.8E 1348Z 11 APR
BALI 8.7S 115.3E 1253Z 11 APR
INDIA GREAT_NICOBAR 7.1N 93.6E 0937Z 11 APR
LITTLE_ANDAMAN 10.7N 92.3E 1016Z 11 APR
PORT_BLAIR 11.9N 92.7E 1032Z 11 APR
NORTH_ANDAMAN 13.3N 92.6E 1052Z 11 APR
CHENNAI 13.4N 80.4E 1127Z 11 APR
KAKINADA 17.2N 82.7E 1205Z 11 APR
TRIVANDRUM 8.3N 76.9E 1208Z 11 APR
MANGALORE 13.3N 74.4E 1336Z 11 APR
BOMBAY 18.8N 72.6E 1608Z 11 APR
GULF_OF_KUTCH 22.7N 68.9E 1634Z 11 APR
SRI LANKA DONDRA_HEAD 5.9N 80.6E 1039Z 11 APR
TRINCOMALEE 8.7N 81.3E 1051Z 11 APR
COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 1120Z 11 APR
JAFFNA 9.9N 80.0E 1231Z 11 APR
AUSTRALIA COCOS_ISLAND 12.1S 96.7E 1045Z 11 APR
NORTH_WEST_CAPE 21.5S 113.9E 1314Z 11 APR
CAPE_INSPIRATIO 25.9S 113.0E 1413Z 11 APR
PERTH 32.0S 115.3E 1420Z 11 APR
AUGUSTA 34.3S 114.7E 1440Z 11 APR
GERALDTOWN 28.6S 114.3E 1459Z 11 APR
CAPE_LEVEQUE 16.1S 122.6E 1506Z 11 APR
ESPERANCE 34.0S 121.8E 1615Z 11 APR
KINGSTON_SOUTH_ 37.0S 139.4E 1748Z 11 APR
HEARD_ISLAND 54.0S 73.5E 1802Z 11 APR
EUCLA_MOTEL 31.8S 128.9E 1836Z 11 APR
HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 1901Z 11 APR
DARWIN 12.1S 130.7E 1935Z 11 APR
MYANMAR CHEDUBA_ISLAND 18.9N 93.4E 1149Z 11 APR
CHEDUBA_ISLAND 18.9N 93.4E 1149Z 11 APR
PYINKAYAING 15.9N 94.3E 1150Z 11 APR
SITTWE 20.0N 92.9E 1226Z 11 APR
MERGUI 12.8N 98.4E 1316Z 11 APR
YANGON 16.5N 96.4E 1507Z 11 APR
THAILAND PHUKET 8.0N 98.2E 1118Z 11 APR
KO_PHRA_THONG 9.1N 98.2E 1223Z 11 APR
KO_TARUTAO 6.6N 99.6E 1256Z 11 APR
MALDIVES GAN 0.6S 73.2E 1137Z 11 APR
MINICOV 8.3N 73.0E 1210Z 11 APR
MALE 4.2N 73.6E 1211Z 11 APR
UNITED KINGDOM DIEGO_GARCIA 7.3S 72.4E 1153Z 11 APR
MALAYSIA GEORGETOWN 5.4N 100.1E 1311Z 11 APR
PORT_DICKSON 2.5N 101.7E 1810Z 11 APR
MAURITIUS PORT_LOUIS 20.0S 57.3E 1455Z 11 APR
REUNION ST_DENIS 20.8S 55.2E 1512Z 11 APR
SEYCHELLES VICTORIA 4.5S 55.6E 1516Z 11 APR
PAKISTAN GWADAR 25.1N 62.4E 1536Z 11 APR
KARACHI 24.7N 66.9E 1644Z 11 APR
SOMALIA CAPE_GUARO 11.9N 51.4E 1539Z 11 APR
HILALAYA 6.4N 49.1E 1540Z 11 APR
MOGADISHU 2.0N 45.5E 1558Z 11 APR
KAAMBOONI 1.5S 41.9E 1623Z 11 APR
OMAN MUSCAT 23.9N 58.6E 1540Z 11 APR
SALALAH 16.9N 54.1E 1547Z 11 APR
DUQM 19.7N 57.8E 1556Z 11 APR
MADAGASCAR ANTSIRANANA 12.1S 49.5E 1544Z 11 APR
TOAMASINA 17.8S 49.6E 1551Z 11 APR
MANAKARA 22.2S 48.2E 1610Z 11 APR
MAHAJANGA 15.4S 46.2E 1653Z 11 APR
CAP_STE_MARIE 25.8S 45.2E 1713Z 11 APR
TOLIARA 23.4S 43.6E 1733Z 11 APR
IRAN GAVATER 25.0N 61.3E 1546Z 11 APR
UAE FUJAIRAH 25.1N 56.4E 1621Z 11 APR
YEMEN AL_MUKALLA 14.5N 49.2E 1626Z 11 APR
ADEN 13.0N 45.2E 1726Z 11 APR
COMORES MORONI 11.6S 43.3E 1644Z 11 APR
BANGLADESH CHITTAGONG 22.7N 91.2E 1651Z 11 APR
TANZANIA LINDI 9.8S 39.9E 1659Z 11 APR
DAR_ES_SALAAM 6.7S 39.4E 1732Z 11 APR
MOZAMBIQUE CABO_DELGADO 10.7S 40.7E 1701Z 11 APR
ANGOCHE 15.5S 40.6E 1720Z 11 APR
QUELIMANE 18.0S 37.1E 1841Z 11 APR
MAPUTO 25.9S 32.8E 1959Z 11 APR
BEIRA 19.9S 35.1E 2016Z 11 APR
KENYA MOMBASA 4.0S 39.7E 1706Z 11 APR
CROZET ISLANDS CROZET_ISLANDS 46.4S 51.8E 1733Z 11 APR
KERGUELEN ISLAN PORT_AUX_FRANCA 49.0S 69.1E 1815Z 11 APR
SOUTH AFRICA PRINCE_EDWARD_I 46.6S 37.6E 1907Z 11 APR
DURBAN 29.8S 31.2E 1910Z 11 APR
PORT_ELIZABETH 33.9S 25.8E 2006Z 11 APR
CAPE_TOWN 34.1S 18.0E 2109Z 11 APR
SINGAPORE SINGAPORE 1.2N 103.8E 2351Z 11 APR

ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION...THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
It's currently listed as an 8.6. Very powerful, to be sure, but: a) farther from land than either the 2004 quake or last year's monster near Japan, b) of a lateral type (as opposed to the tsunami-causing vertical seen in those previous quakes), c) weaker (relatively speaking) than either of those two, and d) people are a bit more cognizant and prepared. For those reasons and more, I wouldn't expect damage, destruction, or casualties to be anywhere near as great as they were in either of those previous two big ones. (The 2004 quake occurred early morning on a holiday, so response was even more sluggish than it might otherwise have been.)
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Tsunami Watch issued... Not a guarenteed tsunami but a decent chance
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
8.9 earthquake in Indian Ocean sets off tsunami warnings Link
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Breaking News:Indonesia issues tsunami warning after powerful quake
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Quoting Dragod66:
any reports of tsunami?


US Geological Survey says tsunami is unlikely.
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any reports of tsunami?
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huge earthquake
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Magnitude 8.7
Date-Time Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 08:38:38 UTC
Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 02:38:38 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 2.348°N, 93.073°E
Depth 33 km (20.5 miles)
Region OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
Distances 434 km (269 miles) SW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
550 km (341 miles) SW of Lhokseumawe, Sumatra, Indonesia
963 km (598 miles) W of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
1797 km (1116 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

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Now reported as 8.7, but off the coast of Northern Sumatra.
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Revised down to 8.5. Epicentre 308 miles SW of Aceh.
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8.9 magnitude earthquake reported near Aceh province, Indonesia, and tsunami warning issued. That's where the the huge Boxing Day tsunami struck, after a 9.1.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I certainly haven't quit and don't plan to :) its just the graduate school material that scares me a bit. Then again, its all about 1 step at a time. If I knew in high school some of the stuff I'd be doing now I probably would have feared it too. Sadly my biggest fear has always been academic testing, while some students need 3 cups of coffee to stay awake, my own adrenaline from subconscious pressure is a natural super energy source, but not in a good way, lol.

Its weird, tests, most of all mathematics tests, have given me more fear nervousness than flying bullets ever would, lol. The human mind is weird. In the past I often made fun people's irrational fears of things all the time, because I never have been afraid of much. However, I too have my own irrational fear: academic testing! lol


A lot of people would disagree that fear of academic testing is irrational :D

Written type exam is not too bad, but nothing beats the dreadful feeling of an OSCE type examination. It's one thing to do an examination that is graded after you hand out the test paper, but to actually do the test while an examiner hovers just a few inches away jotting your grade based on your performance......

Basically everything you have studied and prepared for is just gone
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Takes a lot more than math to be a weather genius. Hang onto your dream.



I certainly haven't quit and don't plan to :) its just the graduate school material that scares me a bit. Then again, its all about 1 step at a time. If I knew in high school some of the stuff I'd be doing now I probably would have feared it too. Sadly my biggest fear has always been academic testing, while some students need 3 cups of coffee to stay awake, my own adrenaline from subconscious pressure is a natural super energy source, but not in a good way, lol.

Its weird, tests, most of all mathematics tests, have given me more fear nervousness than flying bullets ever would, lol. The human mind is weird. In the past I often made fun people's irrational fears of things all the time, because I never have been afraid of much. However, I too have my own irrational fear: academic testing! lol
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443. Skyepony (Mod)
As weather gets biblical, insurers go missing
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442. Skyepony (Mod)
I don't know if I'd believe them saying there's nothing toxic in the stankin landfill fire smoke..
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441. Skyepony (Mod)
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — The United Nations says that flooding from two days of rainfall in Haiti has killed six people and displaced 700 others.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aid said in a statement Tuesday that the deaths occurred in the north and northwestern part of the country.

Two people died in a landslide in the area of Limbe and two others drowned while trying to cross a river. Two bodies were pulled from the water near the coastal town of Anse-a-Foleur.

The floods also damaged 125 homes, crops and livestock.

The rainfall that began April 8 displaced 700 people and 68 of them moved into shelters.

The annual rainy season has already 6 people. They died last month in the capital area after mudslides crashed through their homes.
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440. Skyepony (Mod)
Those NE fires look gamely.. One started around Brookhaven National Laboratory. Can't get much worse smoke then from them landfill fires..
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439. Skyepony (Mod)
STORM CLOUD MISSES EARTH: A coronal mass ejection (CME) expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on April 9th seems to have missed. No signatures of an impact are evident in solar wind data. NOAA has downgraded the odds of a geomagnetic storm today to no more than 10%.
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Quoting weatherh98:


F5
Was an F4 not F5.
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437. Skyepony (Mod)
Mr. Suzuki, a Japanese yakuza journalist reported Fukushima workers have been arrested for drug abuse.
He worked at Fukushima plants from July to August to report the connection between Yakuza and nuclear industry.

He talks, though none of the media reports, Fukushima workers have been arrested for drug abuse even after 311. (They were arrested before 311 as well. ) Drug users are easy for managers to control because some works at nuclear plants are very simple and repetitive. Only if they order a drug user to clean, the person keeps cleaning the place.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The GFS and EURO still showing the subtropical system it did yesterday? On my phone.


They've backed off it a little. On my computer.
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435. Skyepony (Mod)
98P

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417 BahaHurican: So what does one do if caught in a skyscraper during a tornado?

Depends on the building, but the elevator shaft is usually built next to the main support column. If a tornado (or hurricane or earthquake) is survivable on your floor, the highest probability of survival is near that column.
That's assuming that there's no way down. If there's a way down and the building doesn't collapse, the best place would probably be in the underground parking structure, near the elevator.
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The GFS and EURO still showing the subtropical system it did yesterday? On my phone.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
That link doesn't work anyways



Sorry. Fixed here: Link

And if I failed again...

http://www.memegenerator.net/
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Quoting Neapolitan:
On a related note, I find it continually fascinating that denialists will dismiss thousands of modern, calibrated thermometers as poorly sited and fraudulent, while they'll latch onto a multiple-party anecdotal recounting of a localized weather event that allegedly occurred 167 years ago and was recorded in some lonely farmer's diary, using a piece of 200-year-old technology that was so inaccurate that it hasn't been used for more than a century.


What's even more frightening is that if everyone was educated enough to realize how much gibberish is coming out of these denialists mouths then we would probably have already taken action. Then again, if everyone was educated enough there wouldn't be any denialists!!

Education will be key for prospering countries in the coming decades. You don't need to be a visionary to realize that robots will fulfill almost every "routine job" in the manufacturing sector at some point in the future. It is obvious that this will occur because at some point robots will be incredibly cheap and who wants to save money by not paying employees? Everyone.

Anyway, my thoughts are all over the place... I certainly do not want to start a debate about robots.

I guess what I was really trying to say was that there may be many "trolls" wandering around (not just on this site) getting their kicks by presenting denialist claims and consequently starting heated arguments because so many of us on here and elsewhere take the subject seriously and are very sensitive about it. My advice would be, that we can ignore them because that may be just what they want - attention. Some sceptics are really serious but I think a lot of them are not.
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That link doesn't work anyways
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I create my own on HERE

Warning: Website contains some mature content. Viewer Discretion is advised.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I create my own on HERE

Warning: Website contains some mature content. Viewer Discretion is advised.


Then I probably shouldn't go there because I'm only 13 haha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting RTSplayer:


there was the Year without a Summer a couple decades before this alleged warm January.

Also, back in those days there were no ICE boats or power plants or other modern factories dumping waste heats into the lakes and rivers.

Not that there'd be any danger of freeze-ups in modern times, as it's just too hot for that to happen now.

There were some freezes even in the first half of the 20th century on the Mississippi, but nothing remotely like that in at least 60 or 70 years.


Very interesting that in 200 years we've gone from "The Year Without a Summer" to "The Year Without a Winter" and soon it will be "Never Winter Nights". Pardon the pun.


I wonder how long before March 2012 becomes the new normal?

I'd say maybe 20 years.


Probably sooner than most think. I know I probably sound crazy with this global warming stuff, but I promise I wasn't always gungho with this stuff. Growing up listening to Joe Bastardi back in the day, I was pretty skeptical. But looking at the data and perusing through old NCDC climate archives and phenological data was enough to convince me that it's warmed considerably already. Probably more than the stated amount, especially if the period we considered was brought back to the early/mid 19th century, as opposed to the late 19th century, as it was even colder then. That, and the fact, that climate scientists like Hansen predicted warming in the early 80s and that's exactly what's happened. It would seem kind of hard to believe that the warming we've had since then was just a natural occurrence, especially when the physics of greenhouse gases is well known, and has been since the 19th century and days of Arrhenius.

It's funny too when so-called skeptics try to argue that they don't deny it's warming, just that's its part of some natural cycle. If that's the case, why do they make such an effort to cast doubt about the data and claim it's actually not warming (i.e. Anthony Watts surface station effort, Dr. Spencer's recent attempt to eliminate all US warming by claiming its due to population density despite the fact that his own satellite measurements largely confirm the warming, etc.)? And also why do they spend so much effort claiming NASA and the UEA Hadley Centre are cooking the books? Seems to be some sort of tension between those two viewpoints. So as long as they continue to rely on this rhetoric, I'm going to treat them as if they don't even accept that's it warmed. And as I showed with the old data, that's just an irrational position, on par with belief in a flat earth.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Where do u get these?


I create my own on HERE

Warning: Website contains some mature content. Viewer Discretion is advised.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


This might be a good start...



Where do u get these?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That looks like an F4 or F5, was that an F4 or F5?
F4
Weather synopsis for The Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak of April 10, 1979.
After the tornado, a thorough investigation of the damage was performed by Texas Tech University, Institute for Disaster Research, and the University of Chicago. Dr. Ted Fujita of the University of Chicago used these surveys to estimate the F-scale and probable wind speeds associated with the tornado. A detailed mapping of each house and public/commercial building in the city led to the construction of an F-scale map. Damage as severe as F4 was found along most of the track across the city. One somewhat unique characteristic of the damage was the wide swath F4 damage; many violent tornadoes produce only a narrow swath of their most intense damage. The width of the F4 damage in the Wichita Falls tornado approached 0.5 miles in the area of Faith Village and Ben Milam Elementary School (location #6).
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Quoting ClimateChange:


Here's a little context: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1846.html

Yes, 1846 was a warm year, and January apparently very mild that year. In fact, this suggests it may still be the mildest to date. But there were also problems with instrument exposure at that time, and the measurements weren't quality controlled. The cotton region shelter had not even been invented yet, and the records acknowledge that the instrument was exposed to some sunlight. In any case, picking that one month is silly. If you look at the other records from that era, it was cold. Much colder than today in the Minneapolis area (St. Croix County, WI is nearby). In fact, some of the records from the springtime back then are almost unfathomable today -- in terms of late season snow cover and ice cover on the rivers and lakes. Below is a graph that splices the records from Fort Snelling (present-day site of MSP airport) with the other official readings for Minneapolis. Looks like it's been warming to me, and of course some of this may be UHI.



there was the Year without a Summer a couple decades before this alleged warm January.

Also, back in those days there were no ICE boats or power plants or other modern factories dumping waste heats into the lakes and rivers.

Not that there'd be any danger of freeze-ups in modern times, as it's just too hot for that to happen now.

There were some freezes even in the first half of the 20th century on the Mississippi, but nothing remotely like that in at least 60 or 70 years.


Very interesting that in 200 years we've gone from "The Year Without a Summer" to "The Year Without a Winter" and soon it will be "Never Winter Nights". Pardon the pun.


I wonder how long before March 2012 becomes the new normal?

I'd say maybe 20 years.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hydrus:
The Witchita Falls tornado was horrific. Its falling apart, but I still have the book I bought on this very tornado that was published a couple of months after it happened. Wichita Falls, Texas Tornado

View looking north from south shore of Lake Wichita at the tornado approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. The tornado has widened and intensified at this stage. © Pat BlacklockView looking southwest at the approaching tornado from the roof of Bethania Hospital in Wichita Falls, Texas. © Troy Glover


That is one hell of a monster!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
All u guys are posting to me makes it even more frightening that there were people in cars when that thing came through. That is definitely not a "Dorothy in Oz" moment...

So what does one do if caught in a skyscraper during a tornado?



This might be a good start...

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Quoting ClimateChange:



Here's a little context: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1846.html

Yes, 1846 was a warm year, and January apparently very mild that year. In fact, this suggests it may still be the mildest to date. But there were also problems with instrument exposure at that time, and the measurements weren't quality controlled. The cotton region shelter had not even been invented yet, and the records acknowledge that the instrument was exposed to some sunlight. In any case, picking that one month is silly. If you look at the other records from that era, it was cold. Much colder than today in the Minneapolis area (St. Croix County, WI is nearby). In fact, some of the records from the springtime back then are almost unfathomable today -- in terms of late season snow cover and ice cover on the rivers and lakes. Below is a graph that splices the records from Fort Snelling (present-day site of MSP airport) with the other official readings for Minneapolis. Looks like it's been warming to me, and of course some of this may be UHI.





But as I mentioned snow and ice cover wouldn't be greatly affected by UHI and they also tell of tale of a drastically different climate.

Can you imagine this happening today in Minneapolis?

This is April 1857. It didn't reach 50 until April 24th that year. Most of April had afternoon temperatures in the 20s and 30s with snow covering the ground. These conditions are no longer even possible in today's climate. They are unfathomable.

"April was extraordinarily backward, monthly mean temperature (32 F) the lowest ever recorded for this month in the Twin Cities vicinity. Precipitation was heavy, 4.25 inches falling on 9 days. Only three afternoons over the first eighteen got as warm as the 40's, and numerous days over the period experienced blustery northerly winds. On the 4th, a heavy rainstorm dropped 1.10 inches, the following afternoon just 22 F at 2PM with force 6 (45 miles per hour) northwesterlies. A January-like 3 F was recorded next morning, the 6th. Following another storm on the 9th that dropped .70 inches of rain and snow mixed, a nine-day spell of some of the coldest weather ever experienced this late in April followed. The 10th was only 18 F at 7AM with force 7 northwesterlies (60 miles per hour), midafternoon just 25 F with force 5 (35 mile per hour) winds from the same direction. Six of the next eight afternoons failed to rise above 32 F, 7AM readings on the 15th and 16th only 13 F and 11 F, respectively, with force 4 northwesterlies (25 miles per hour) on each. Fort Ripley was 4 F on the 17th, "the [Mississippi] river yet closed & the earth covered with about a foot of snow". The first 50 F reading of the month (and year) at Snelling didn't come until the 24th, the Pioneer & Democrat reporting that day that the "snow has [finally] disappeared and grass is shooting up". On the 29th, the mercury reached 64 F at Snelling for virtually the only seasonably mild afternoon of the month, the first boat through Lake Pepin finally docking in St. Paul on the 1st of May, a record-late date."

But, yeah, global warming isn't real, right? What a joke.

http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histor ical-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1857.html
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I'm wondering now about the impacts of the radiation from Japan's disaster. Has it impacted our weather patterns in the short term?

Anyway, I'm out. I may check in on my Acer later, but I think I'm just going to bed.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Whoa whoa hold on just a minute... that one context-less, scanned page from an outdated book with no references on a singular weather event ages ago DISPROVES EVERYTHING!

Or maybe, as is more likely the case, it is from a period when we did not have well-established meteorological observations covering the country (let alone the globe), nor well-established climatological averages by which to calculate anomalies, and as such it should be treated as an anecdotal source, one of the lowest on the list of scientific credibility.


Here's a little context: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1846.html

Yes, 1846 was a warm year, and January apparently very mild that year. In fact, this suggests it may still be the mildest to date. But there were also problems with instrument exposure at that time, and the measurements weren't quality controlled. The cotton region shelter had not even been invented yet, and the records acknowledge that the instrument was exposed to some sunlight. In any case, picking that one month is silly. If you look at the other records from that era, it was cold. Much colder than today in the Minneapolis area (St. Croix County, WI is nearby). In fact, some of the records from the springtime back then are almost unfathomable today -- in terms of late season snow cover and ice cover on the rivers and lakes. Below is a graph that splices the records from Fort Snelling (present-day site of MSP airport) with the other official readings for Minneapolis. Looks like it's been warming to me, and of course some of this may be UHI.

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Good post masters. Seems mother nature has March and April mixed up. Except for 1" of snow at the beginning of march, we had for the most part 70s and even 80s. Now in the first half of April, we've seen temps struggle to reach 70, and even had a few morning freezes.
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All u guys are posting to me makes it even more frightening that there were people in cars when that thing came through. That is definitely not a "Dorothy in Oz" moment...

So what does one do if caught in a skyscraper during a tornado?

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Quoting Neapolitan:
On a related note, I find it continually fascinating that denialists will dismiss thousands of modern, calibrated thermometers as poorly sited and fraudulent, while they'll latch onto a multiple-party anecdotal recounting of a localized weather event that allegedly occurred 167 years ago and was recorded in some lonely farmer's diary, using a piece of 200-year-old technology that was so inaccurate that it hasn't been used for more than a century.


I could reverse that and say that these new thermometers are finally reading it accurately and all the lower average temperatures from the past are erroneous. So it works both ways.
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Quoting hydrus:
The Witchita Falls tornado was horrific. Its falling apart, but I still have the book I bought on this very tornado that was published a couple of months after it happened. Wichita Falls, Texas Tornado

View looking north from south shore of Lake Wichita at the tornado approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. The tornado has widened and intensified at this stage. © Pat BlacklockView looking southwest at the approaching tornado from the roof of Bethania Hospital in Wichita Falls, Texas. © Troy Glover


F5
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Jedkins01:



What is the deal with the Heartland Institute, I realize they reject any kind of evidence for Climate Change, but who are the people that the Heartland Institute is composed of?

Are there any atmospheric scientists part of it at all?

I'm just curious.


I believe it is a PR operation of some kind
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