March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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I am under a heavy thunderstorm as I type this.Loud thunder is going on where I live in Isla Verde,PR.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13250
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fire.

gee just look at all that smoke
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

GAZ026-028-029-102100-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HART-
351 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...A BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GEORGIA PIEDMONT THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING...

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE BRIEF AND MODERATE...THE SHOWERS COULD CHANNEL STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FRANKLIN...HART...AND ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM...WITH THE
GUSTIEST WINDS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM ROYSTON TO ELBERTON TO
FORTSONIA.

LAT...LON 3398 8266 3397 8279 3400 8293 3417 8311
3423 8308 3426 8313 3423 8317 3426 8331
3422 8335 3426 8334 3432 8340 3446 8340
3448 8318 3453 8311 3447 8301 3448 8289
3427 8275 3415 8272 3409 8264 3396 8256

$$

HG
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
We'll find out this week btw if Irene and or Lee get's retired from the naming rotation.
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Fire.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting Neapolitan:
I've been watching Cleveland since it went over to orange a few weeks ago:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Cleveland.php

So far, nothing. But a volcano on Ohio would certainly liven things up, no? ;-)Any truth to that? Absolutely none at all...
LOL my thoughts exactly LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
April 9, 2011

April 9, 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL i first read this and nearly fell off my chair, later on I saw its on an island somewhere.............AVO reported that on 28 March the Volcano Alert Level for Cleveland was raised to Watch and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Orange due to the formation of a new lava dome, observed in satellite imagery, which extruded in the summit crater during the previous week. During 29 March-3 April cloud cover prevented observations of the crater. Elevated surface temperatures consistent with a hot lava dome were detected in infrared satellite imagery on 4 April. No seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network.
I've been watching Cleveland since it went over to orange a few weeks ago:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Cleveland.php

So far, nothing. But a volcano on Ohio would certainly liven things up, no? ;-)
Quoting LargoFl:
I found this on another weather blog..any truth to this? was THIS the cause of our HOT spring and warm winter???.........................First Grmsvtn volcano erupted through a glacier. Then it exploded through the air. Finally, its debris changed the atmosphere so much that it blasted winter away from most of the US.
Any truth to that? Absolutely none at all...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Had a much better day today except for the fact I forgot my phone at home and the drink machine stole my money.

You may have to change your name from 13 to stop the bad luck
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


I took a nap and swam, and I didn't get money taken


how much did you swim?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9450
LOL i first read this and nearly fell off my chair, later on I saw its on an island somewhere.............AVO reported that on 28 March the Volcano Alert Level for Cleveland was raised to Watch and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Orange due to the formation of a new lava dome, observed in satellite imagery, which extruded in the summit crater during the previous week. During 29 March-3 April cloud cover prevented observations of the crater. Elevated surface temperatures consistent with a hot lava dome were detected in infrared satellite imagery on 4 April. No seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Had a much better day today except for the fact I forgot my phone at home and the drink machine stole my money.


I took a nap and swam, and I didn't get money taken
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
First warning of the day...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTH OF JENA...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBIA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL PASS NEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF JENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. BOATERS
ON CATAHOULA LAKE SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 9200 3147 9201 3174 9226 3190 9206
3179 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 323DEG 28KT 3173 9208

$$

VII
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Had a much better day today except for the fact I forgot my phone at home and the drink machine stole my money.


u always have bad luck :)

on a weather note, it was quite windy ahead of the line of showers in N AL/GA.
I wonder how much rain is reaching the ground though, but i am hoping for a few sprinkles.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9450
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
So was the heat in 1936 caused by humans as well? Why can that be a natural variation but the period we are in now not be.
I've wondered about that. The period between 1913 and 1933 saw some major developments in industrialization of industry and some notable changes in land use. It's also the period when automobiles became more or less ubiquitous. How much impact did the explosion of the nuclear devices over the next 10 years have???
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Good afternoon..hope you all had a good easter!
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I found this on another weather blog..any truth to this? was THIS the cause of our HOT spring and warm winter???.........................First Grímsvötn volcano erupted through a glacier. Then it exploded through the air. Finally, its debris changed the atmosphere so much that it blasted winter away from most of the US.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Good afternoon all.

Had a much better day today except for the fact I forgot my phone at home and the drink machine stole my money.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting SteveDa1:


Based on we didn't have electricity 150 years ago? Based on cars were invented at the start of the 20th century? Based on the fact that the earth was thought to be flat about 600 years ago? Based on the discovery of North America? Based on the invention of the computer and the internet?

You think the world hasn't changed at all?


The Mesopotamians believed the earth was a flat disc floating in the oceans. The Eygyptians believed the earth was a flat square, with the sky supported on mountains at the corners. By 1400, most scientists had accepted the earth was a sphere, thanks to Greek mathemeticians. Your second sentence is just incorrect, and not thought out or researched at all.

I don't mean this as an argument, just pointing it out. If you really want to learn something today, do what I did... look it up!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What is wrong with having a civil discussion about the climate?


We all know it can get very non-civil here more rapidly than Humberto becoming a hurricane off of Texas.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
Quoting weatherh98:


My pe teacher read a book called the lie my teachers told me and he told us that

I doubt the teachers were deliberately lying. I remember a Roger Miller song that surprisingly touched on this subject in which Columbus was asked "How'd you know the world was round?*", implying that a round world was a revelation. I don't think ol' Roger was trying to put one over on us. Misconceptions can occur without any intent to deceive.



*For the record --and on the record--, in the song Columbus answered, "I used my brain...and I get up early in the morning."

(I'll try to work some Marty Robbins into my next post)
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Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. I just wanted to share my happiness. My granddaughter was born on Monday weighing 6 lbs 13 oz. Beautiful little girl. This is my first and maybe last one. But I only need one to spoil!
Congratulations Grandma..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Any night sky watchers out there?..with the cloudless skies of Florida lately, we should have a fine view of this.................................Fans of Saturn could ask no more of it this month. On April 15, the ringed world lies opposite the Sun in our sky — a position known as opposition — meaning fantastic views of it will last all night. The planet rises in the east at sunset, hangs within the constellation Virgo the Maiden, and sets at sunrise. And, because every opposition occurs when Earth lies closest to Saturn, the planet appears bigger and brighter than at other times, peaking at a magnitude of 0.2.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting Jax82:


Hey St Aug, thats a lot more to burn thats for sure. What is even more appalling is the articles surprise long term forecast at the very end:

"Heavy rainfall isn't expected until June at the earliest"

I wonder what model they are looking at? lol, thats a pretty bold statement.
Hmm. No rain until June? Doesn't sound like they expect el nino's rapid development...
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On the tropical weather front (upcoming H-Season), here is today's update from the Aussie Mets on ENSO:

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on Tuesday 10 April | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Following the demise of the 2011%u201312 La Nina, the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter. Historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Nino conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Nina event.

The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 C during the past fortnight.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.

Next update expected by 24 April 2012 | print version



Obviously the main question will be how long will neutral conditions last going into the peak of the Atlantic Season in mid-September......It could make a difference (numbers wise) of an additional 1-5 storms depending on the timing if El Nino conditions do not emerge at some point during this season as suggested by Gray and Company.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What is wrong with having a civil discussion about the climate?


You missed it we had one an hour and a half ago
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Here they come.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Quoting RTSplayer:


In part yes, yes it was, but in a different way.

Bad farming practices destroyed the soil, which enhanced natural drought cycles, causing moisture and nutrients to go down.

then when a natural drought hit, all the vegetation died fast, and you lose even more ability to hold soil moisture.

Lower soil moisture eventually equals lower humidity and higher temperatures extremes.

This of course is why there was so much wind-driven erosion, hence the term "Dust Bowl".


The gist of this is pretty well accepted science and history.


No I understand the dust storms were caused by over farming and over grazing, but the actual heat part was not.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but I think the difference is that the pattern has been more stuck than the past few years where we had a strong trough at least once a week. The ridge in the Western Atlantic has been more difficult for the troughs to overcome and it has played a big part in our record warmth this spring. If it stays so dominant into hurricane season, it could be trouble.
I'm not as worried about this spring pattern as the one that sets up by July. THAT one often sticks around into AS before it breaks.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
So was the heat in 1936 caused by humans as well? Why can that be a natural variation but the period we are in now not be.


In part yes, yes it was, but in a different way.

Bad farming practices destroyed the soil, which enhanced natural drought cycles, causing moisture and nutrients to go down.

then when a natural drought hit, all the vegetation died fast, and you lose even more ability to hold soil moisture.

Lower soil moisture eventually equals lower humidity and higher temperatures extremes.

This of course is why there was so much wind-driven erosion, hence the term "Dust Bowl".


The gist of this is pretty well accepted science and history.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1494
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEON COUNTY FLORIDA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COINCIDENT WITH AN ERC OF 35 OR
GREATER...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH DISPERSION OF 75 OR
GREATER AND ERC VALUES OF 20 OR GREATER...

.DISCUSSION...DISPERSION VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 75
OVER A LARGE AREA OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. ERC
VALUES ARE ALSO FAIRLY HIGH...SO THE LARGE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA ZONES.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALZ065>069-102300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120410T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
119 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WIND...NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...22 TO 24 PERCENT MINIMUM.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

DVD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. I just wanted to share my happiness. My granddaughter was born on Monday weighing 6 lbs 13 oz. Beautiful little girl. This is my first and maybe last one. But I only need one to spoil!
a big Congrats!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Quoting weatherh98:


Omg we just finished this we were doing so good


What is wrong with having a civil discussion about the climate?
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Quoting Thrawst:
Loving the cooler-ish weather here.

77 and mostly cloudy in Nassau today!
Enjoy it while it lasts... lol
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
So was the heat in 1936 caused by humans as well? Why can that be a natural variation but the period we are in now not be.


Omg we just finished this we were doing so good
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
So was the heat in 1936 caused by humans as well? Why can that be a natural variation but the period we are in now not be.
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Quoting Jax82:


Hey St Aug, thats a lot more to burn thats for sure. What is even more appalling is the articles surprise long term forecast at the very end:

"Heavy rainfall isn't expected until June at the earliest"

I wonder what model they are looking at? lol, thats a pretty bold statement.


I noticed and had to LOL. I can only assume they were implying the rainy season doesn't kick in until June. But - you know what happens when one assumes.
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126. Jax82
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Hey St Aug, thats a lot more to burn thats for sure. What is even more appalling is the articles surprise long term forecast at the very end:

"Heavy rainfall isn't expected until June at the earliest"

I wonder what model they are looking at? lol, thats a pretty bold statement.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a really good point.
especially as it wanes in sept
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but I think the difference is that the pattern has been more stuck than the past few years where we had a strong trough at least once a week. The ridge in the Western Atlantic has been more difficult for the troughs to overcome and it has played a big part in our record warmth this spring. If it stays so dominant into hurricane season, it could be trouble.


That's a really good point.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101856Z - 102000Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

1830Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE
VICINITY OF TWO SEPARATE SURFACE FEATURES...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING INTO A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NRN AL/MS WWD INTO CNTRL OK...AND AN AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE
NOTED FROM E CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL MS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE WARM LAYER
LIKELY STILL EXISTS AROUND 750 MB...EVIDENCED BY THE PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD FIELDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NRN LA WHERE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED/. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STABLE LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH
TIME. MORE PROBLEMATIC IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS UPPER FORCING...ALTHOUGH
THE LA CONVECTION IS LIKELY RESPONDING TO A DECAYING UPPER
WAVE...NOTED ON WV IMAGERY FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN MS/LA. FARTHER N
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SERN OK INTO SRN AR HAS
NO NOTABLE UPPER FEATURE TO INSTIGATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AND
MAY POSSIBLY BE SUPPRESSED IN SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED.

..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2012

Good afternoon everyone... Does anyone know if we're still expecting major sever weather for the end of this week or did the threat mostly disappear?


Still expecting it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Thought I'd share with the blog. Some of you may have seen this already. For those of you who haven't, you're in for a treat. Enjoy!

Link

Watch in 1080P HD for the best viewing experience.

Created by Tim Asdoorian for Stanford University's HumBio 183: Astrobiology and Space Exploration taught by NASA Ames's Lynn Rothschild.
FREE LECTURES and more info can be found at: http://www.stanford.edu/group/astrobiology/cgi-bin /

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Quoting Jax82:
Big blanket of smoke over the fire today, we have a break right now here at East Jax, the smoke has made its way south though, and a large plume of it is stagnant over the GOM and north of Tampa. With no rain in the forecast the next several days these fires should persist.
/blockquote>

Hey Jax, I was reading earlier the County Line fire will burn another 20,000 acres before it'll be contained. More than likely it'll get worse before it gets better and may potentially persist for weeks/months. We shall see.

Link
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Inez was weird..Hurricane Inez seen from space near the Yucatán Peninsula on October 8, 1966
Formed September 21, 1966
Dissipated October 11, 1966
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure 929 mbar (hPa); 27.43 inHg
Fatalities Over 1,000 total
Damage $432.5 million (1966 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Keys, Yucatán, Mexico Here is a link, and it is worth the time..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
119. Jax82
Big blanket of smoke over the fire today, we have a break right now here at East Jax, the smoke has made its way south though, and a large plume of it is stagnant over the GOM and north of Tampa. With no rain in the forecast the next several days these fires should persist.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101856Z - 102000Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

1830Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE
VICINITY OF TWO SEPARATE SURFACE FEATURES...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING INTO A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NRN AL/MS WWD INTO CNTRL OK...AND AN AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE
NOTED FROM E CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL MS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A SUBTLE WARM LAYER
LIKELY STILL EXISTS AROUND 750 MB...EVIDENCED BY THE PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD FIELDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NRN LA WHERE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED/. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STABLE LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH
TIME. MORE PROBLEMATIC IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS UPPER FORCING...ALTHOUGH
THE LA CONVECTION IS LIKELY RESPONDING TO A DECAYING UPPER
WAVE...NOTED ON WV IMAGERY FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN MS/LA. FARTHER N
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SERN OK INTO SRN AR HAS
NO NOTABLE UPPER FEATURE TO INSTIGATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AND
MAY POSSIBLY BE SUPPRESSED IN SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED.

..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2012

Good afternoon everyone... Does anyone know if we're still expecting major sever weather for the end of this week or did the threat mostly disappear?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This has been the case the last few years but then when you think were doomed a trough comes out of nowhere and sets up near the eastern US basically steering everything away (except Irene). I agree though this year will be interesting as i think we may have several storms targeting the US from the Caribbean. It could be a pattern where the CV storms go further south this year due a stronger Bermuda setting up in the C Altantic (instead over the eastern US to just east of bermuda) and end in the Caribbean before either recurving up toward the US coast or ramming into C America.


Yeah, but I think the difference is that the pattern has been more stuck than the past few years where we had a strong trough at least once a week. The ridge in the Western Atlantic has been more difficult for the troughs to overcome and it has played a big part in our record warmth this spring. If it stays so dominant into hurricane season, it could be trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah I don't know where you are but it's really nice outside with the low humidity. eventhough it's 87 it feels nice!


Mandeville Louisiana
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting weatherh98:


It's the most comfortable 83 I've ever been inI


Yeah I don't know where you are but it's really nice outside with the low humidity. eventhough it's 87 it feels nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hydrus,

I saw a couple that came up from the Car, made it all the way to the Brownsville area of the GoM coast, then skirt the coast all the way back east to the Mobile area before heading NE and exiting anywhere from St. Aug. to Charleston....

Seemed to be something about the atmospheric circulation between 1830 and 1850 that made this an observable pattern.
I remember the one you are talking about, but it was a long time ago while I was doing some research..I have discovered that hurricanes can take some VERY unusual paths. I have pictured some pretty ridiculous paths in my mind, turns out there were in fact storms that took very similar tracks in real life. Gordon comes to mind as one of the most recent of the wild tracks..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.