Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Reed Timmer is on his way to intercept the Greensburg monster it appears.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots.

Yeah, I think that was a messed up scan. lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
1768 Bluestorm5: [lengthy quotation] Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks

If you feel that way, WHY did you repost it in its entirety?
That why I just listed Xcools name and asked him to post it later.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
1804. LargoFl
vSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC047-097-145-151-185-150200-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120415T0200Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-PAWNEE KS-KIOWA KS-EDWARDS KS-
848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EDWARDS...NORTHERN
KIOWA...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND STAFFORD COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR FELLSBURG.
THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. DANGEROUS AND
EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

A VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO IS LIKELY MOVING THOUGH
FELLSBURG AT THIS TIME. TAKE LIFE SAVING PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FELLSBURG...
TROUSDALE...
BELPRE...
MACKSVILLE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN PAWNEE...EDWARDS...NORTHERN KIOWA...
NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND STAFFORD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS CONFIRMED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 9927 3762 9955 3835 9927 3811 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 214DEG 54KT 3780 9916
HAIL 4.25IN

$$

RUSSELL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1803. Tygor
Any news coverage of the large tornado down by Greensburg?
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I've lost track of the Alva/cherokee circulation which was heading toward Witchita's direciton. It seems the storm in Manchaster, OK has jumped the border into Kansas and "ate" the Alva/cherokee supercell. Now, the Manchester cell is heading toward Witchita. Is that correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots.
I don't think that is how it works Blue.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If it was 300 knots on the ground it would be the strongest wind ever measured on earth correct?
correct. Storngest ever on earth is Moore tornado at 318 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1768 Bluestorm5: [lengthy quotation] Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks

If you feel that way, WHY did you repost it in its entirety?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tornado SE of Salina

M4 67 dBZ 49,000 ft. 75 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 35 knots SW (233)


tornado in Harper County

0 R5 66 dBZ 43,000 ft. 80 kg/m² 80% chance 100% chance 2.00 in. 29 knots SW (232)
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It might have 2 mesos and 2 tornadoes...Greensburg cell

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
I bet Ed Oneal is pissing his pants chasing the Greensburg storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
1795. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC089-123-141-150230-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/
OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-JEWELL KS-
848 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
JEWELL...MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 846 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VICTOR...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...GLEN ELDER...ASHERVILLE...SIMPSON...IONIA...SCOTTSVILLE ...
JEWELL AND RANDALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A
TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9858 3915 9858 3972 9833 3964 9792
3935 9792 3921 9802 3921 9848 3914 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 216DEG 61KT 3932 9821
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

ADO
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


300 knots!?! This is an EF5.
hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots.
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Oh no...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR FELLSBURG.
THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. DANGEROUS AND
EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Vorticity signature continues to be off the map.




WOW. At night, and that thing is hauling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
That new tornado warning for Greensburg area tornado is HUGE. It covers about 5 counties O_O NWS Dodge city is basically trying to say this tornado is going to stay on ground long and the direction can change quickly.

Yeah, that parent supercell is probably the most extreme one I have seen in a very long time.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


300 knots!?! This is an EF5.
If it was 300 knots on the ground it would be the strongest wind ever measured on earth correct?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Greensburg just dodged EF4/5 it looked like. Also tornado on OK/KS border is 150 knots and gaining strength.
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btw new CFS

E1


E2


E3


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gate to gate velocites on this storm are near 300 knots.



300 knots!?! This is an EF5.
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I think we may be tracking an EF5 tornado north of Greensburg.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have never seen a red TVS.
This is a legendary tornado on the ground.

Greensburg storm.

Vorticity signature continues to be off the map.



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This is terrifying

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Debris ball near Greensburg.... Ulp.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
1782. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
KSC077-191-150230-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0028.120415T0147Z-120415T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
847 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 842 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
OF VEHICLES LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTHONY...BLUFF CITY...CALDWELL...ARGONIA...FREEPORT AND MILAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9778 3699 9811 3706 9816 3740 9774
3703 9749 3699 9769 3699 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 237DEG 30KT 3703 9802

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

KLEINSASSER
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That new tornado warning for Greensburg area tornado is HUGE. It covers about 5 counties O_O NWS Dodge city is basically trying to say this tornado is going to stay on ground long and the direction can change quickly.
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Are cells continuing to pop up or have they basically remained the same?
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I think Greensburg just dodged a EF5.

Just saying that because of how ridiculous radar is on this storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Must we wank now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well here's your helicity:



600-700 is very strong, which is why the tornado approaching Manchester OK has been able maintain itself so long.


Helicity to me is probably the most important thing to watch when it comes to tornado formation and intensity overall in my opinion. Of course you need many other things present for a tornado outbreak, but my experience of observing tornado events, and my knowledge of what helicity means atmospherically speaking sums up to it being a very important figure in tornado forecasting in my opinion...




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Gate to gate velocites on this storm are near 300 knots.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have never seen a red TVS.
This is on legendary tornado on the ground.

Greensburg storm.

Holy crap. That thing ain't messin' around!
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Quoting redux:
whats the story with the cell north of wichita?


Consistently tornado warned along its path. Velocity data around the storm is noisy, but a couplet can be seen.



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Quoting Bluestorm5:


Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks


All be danged,

Hurricane discussions offtopic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1772. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC157-171-150230-
/O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0024.120415T0133Z-120415T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
833 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
POWESHIEK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
TAMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARSHALLTOWN TO
GRINNELL TO PELLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRINNELL...TOLEDO...TAMA...MONTEZUMA...BROOKLYN... DYSART...GRINNELL
AIRPORT...MONTOUR...GARWIN...GLADBROOK...SEARSBORO ...MALCOM...
TRAER...CHELSEA...CLUTIER...VINING...ELBERON...IRV ING...DEEP RIVER
AND HARTWICK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9275 4219 9277 4228 9230 4151 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 240DEG 56KT 4201 9281 4174 9276
4147 9291
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

COGIL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have never seen a red TVS.
This is a legendary tornado on the ground.

Greensburg storm.

Debris ball also!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Debris ball getting even bigger in Manchester near KS/OK border
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
1769. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
The Greensburg tornado velocity signatures are ridiculous...


We also have 3 DIFFERENT vortex signatures in 3 different counties in Iowa!


F3 Harper KS 63 dBZ 41,000 ft. 76 kg/m 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 31 knots SW (231)

0 R5 Harper OK 63 dBZ 36,000 ft. 70 kg/m 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 31 knots SW (230)

0 I6 Lucas IA 70 dBZ 42,000 ft. 67 kg/m 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 60 knots WSW (254)

0 P9 Poweshiek IA 59 dBZ 32,000 ft. 30 kg/m 50% Chance 100% Chance 1.00 in. 66 knots SSW (213)

0 Q8 Marion IA 75 dBZ 37,000 ft. 69 kg/m 100% Chance 100% Chance 0.00 in. 43 knots WSW (250)


0 E1 Custer NE 52 dBZ 24,000 ft. 16 kg/m 0% Chance 80% Chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SW (233)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season.


I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting.

See:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html

I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are:

1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997

Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best.

1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys)
1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes)
1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia)
1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley)
*1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise)
1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall
1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew)
1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall
1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny)

Average = 7.8/4/0.8

Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7


As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane:

El Nino
21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina
21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

Neutral
25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina + Neutral
23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons).

The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted.

by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org


Not trying to be a jerk, but this is WAYYY OFF TOPIC. Save this post and paste this the other day, okay :) Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Manchaster, OK is about to get nailed! Debris ball on the radar on News9 coverage! This is not good...

Greensburg, KS also another high-profile event...

What about the storm heading toward Witchita?


the blue / green showing the vortex:
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 237
The Greensburg tornado velocity signatures are ridiculous...


We also have 3 DIFFERENT vortex signatures in 3 different counties in Iowa!


F3 Harper KS 63 dBZ 41,000 ft. 76 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 31 knots SW (231)

0 R5 Harper OK 63 dBZ 36,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 31 knots SW (230)

0 I6 Lucas IA 70 dBZ 42,000 ft. 67 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 60 knots WSW (254)

0 P9 Poweshiek IA 59 dBZ 32,000 ft. 30 kg/m² 50% Chance 100% Chance 1.00 in. 66 knots SSW (213)

0 Q8 Marion IA 75 dBZ 37,000 ft. 69 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 0.00 in. 43 knots WSW (250)


0 E1 Custer NE 52 dBZ 24,000 ft. 16 kg/m² 0% Chance 80% Chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SW (233)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season.


I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting.

See:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html

I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are:

1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997

Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best.

1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys)
1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes)
1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia)
1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley)
*1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise)
1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall
1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew)
1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall
1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny)

Average = 7.8/4/0.8

Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7


As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane:

El Nino
21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina
21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

Neutral
25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina + Neutral
23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons).

The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted.

by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org

That's actually pretty close to my predictions i set early this month. 13/6/2
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Looks like a second discrete line is developing around the Greensburg storm.

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1763. redux
whats the story with the cell north of wichita?
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 233
xcool that post was kinda inappropriate for what is going on right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
WWUS53 KICT 150136
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC077-150200-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120415T0200Z/
HARPER KS-
836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARPER COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 831 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR WALDRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
VEHICLES LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTHONY AND BLUFF CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9833 3731 9810 3715 9780 3712 9780
3700 9799 3699 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 230DEG 35KT 3701 9809

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

KLEINSASSER
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995

That chase footage of the Cherokee tornado was incredible. I'd never seen a storm chase at night - or as close as to make no difference. Eerie, mesmerising stuff.

Lots of people lucking out today as the tornadoes skirt the population centres. May it continue into the night as I go to bed. Hope they're missing the farms too.
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1759. xcool
TSR is actually the highest predicted numbers at 13/6/3. I don't like one of their 2 predictors - SSTs. SSTs don't correlate very well with the number of named storms in a season.


I've been doing a bit of research today with respect to ENSO and Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (MSLPA) 1950-2012. The MSLPA predicted by the Euro compared with past similar seasons of MSLPA would suggest <10 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 0-1 majors. Quite interesting.

See:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mslpa/mslpa.html

I grabbed the MSLPA image for each year 1950-2011 and added on the Euro prediction for 2012. Going through the maps, I looked for seasons with high pressure in the Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf/Caribbean and also low pressure in the East Pac. Years similar to the 2012 prediction are:

1968, 1972, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1997

Of those, 1972 and 1997 matched the predicted pressure anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific the best.

1968 – 8/4/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall north of Tampa (Gladys)
1972 – 7/3/0 -> 1 US hurricane landfall east of Panama City, FL (Agnes)
1983 – 4/3/1 -> 1 US hurricane landfall Galveston (Alicia)
1986 – 6/4/0 -> 2 US hurricane landfalls, Port Arthur (Bonnie) and NC (Charley)
*1990 – 14/8/1 -> No US landfall (questionable - not the best comparison, pressure-wise)
1991 – 8/4/2 -> No US landfall
1992 – 7/4/1 -> 1 US landfall South FL and Louisiana (Andrew)
1993 – 8/3/1 -> No US landfall
1997 – 8/3/1 -> 1 US landfall in Alabama (Danny)

Average = 7.8/4/0.8

Remove 1990 and = 7/3.5/0.7


As for any relationship between El Nino, La Nina and Neutral seasons with respect to any increased probability of a US landfalling hurricane:

El Nino
21.3% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
11.2% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina
21.2% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
12.1% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

Neutral
25.8% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
14.9% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

La Nina + Neutral
23.6% of all hurricanes hit the U.S.
13.5% of all named storms hit the U.S. as hurricanes

I don’t see anything there to say that the U.S. is more or less likely to be hit just because of an El Nino being present. In fact, there’s no difference at all between El Nino and La Nina. Neutral seasons had more impacts per/storms. Just looking through all the seasons, it seems like ENSO status the previous year and previous winter may have had a significant impact on the upcoming season. I.E., the strong El Ninos before 1983 and 1992 (which both counted as La Nina hurricane seasons).

The Euro is predicting quite high pressures in the Atlantic this hurricane season and low pressures in the East Pac. How did the Euro do for last year? It predicted very low pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure in the East Pac, which verified nicely. The current ENSO analogs for 2012 don’t have a MSLPA similar to what is predicted.

by wxman57 Moderator-Pro Met. http://www.storm2k.org
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Too close, too close, too close...

AT 836 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC 2 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GREENSBURG.
Omg. Greensburg dodged a bullet. If the public could see it at night it was probably large.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Manchaster, OK is about to get nailed! Debris ball on the radar on News9 coverage! This is not good...

Greensburg, KS also another high-profile event...

What about the storm heading toward Witchita?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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