Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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1901. LargoFl 2:16 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Mother nature just went postal. man your sure right there, this night may go down in the history books Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1902. JTDailyUpdate 2:17 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Chicklit: Tornado emergency for Macksville... ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for eastern Edwards... southeastern Pawnee... northwestern Pratt and Stafford counties until 915 PM CDT... At 859 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated very strong rotation associated with a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado 3 miles south of Macksville. This tornadic storm was moving northeast at 55 mph. Dangerous and extremely destructive hail up to softball size is also expected with this storm. Locations impacted include... Macksville... Dillwyn... St. John... Seward... mainly rural areas of eastern Edwards... northwestern Pratt... southeastern Pawnee and Stafford counties. Precautionary/preparedness actions... To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is confirmed! To protect your life... take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes at night are especially dangerous. Do not wait until you see or hear the tornado... it may be too late. Take cover now! Lat... Lon 3773 9902 3774 9926 3782 9931 3827 9900 3827 9847 3826 9847 3795 9847 time... Mot... loc 0200z 224deg 50kt 3793 9897 hail 4.25in I hope the people in Mackville are in underground bunkers, they are looking down the barrel of a one big and powerful gun Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 260

1903. RTSplayer 2:17 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
3/4 of a mile wide tornado near Sumner. R5 Sumner KS 63 dBZ 42,000 ft. 34 kg/m² 70% Chance 100% Chance 1.75 in. 29 knots SW (231) All of these are other confirmed tornadoes. 0 A4 Franklin NE 70 dBZ 38,000 ft. 66 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.25 in. 51 knots SW (221) 0 I8 Harper KS 48 dBZ 10,000 ft. 5 kg/m² 0% Chance 0% Chance 0.00 in. 31 knots SSW (204) 0 F0 Harper KS 47 dBZ 7,000 ft. 3 kg/m² 0% Chance 0% Chance 0.00 in. 29 knots SSW (206) Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1904. LargoFl 2:17 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 914 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 NEC129-181-150230- /O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/ NUCKOLLS NE-WEBSTER NE- 914 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND WESTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT... AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOSTWICK...OR 35 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NELSON AND LAWRENCE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. && LAT...LON 4001 9811 4001 9841 4035 9824 4035 9811 4029 9793 TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 203DEG 51KT 4017 9817 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN $$ ADO Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1905. NCHurricane2009 2:18 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: I just got in the door.What's happening. Rough summary of what I got since I got on here tonight... (1) I heard of a tornado in Dacoma... (2) Well SE of Dodge City...tornado headed first toward Greensburg, KS. Passed just NW of Greensburg and was spotted at night. It then moved thru Fellsburg...heading toward trousdale...belpre, macksville. A tornado emergency was issued for macksville. (3) East Reno County Kansas (Hutchinson area)...now heading NE toward Hillsboro & passing NW of Marion. Now passing south of Herington. (4) Wynona OK tornado, which moved toward salina-Manchseter area of Oklahoma (News9 converage with dramatic footage including explosion of gas tank & multiple vortices?). Before heading toward Manchester, passed just N of Byron. After passing just NW of Manchester, it moved across Oklahoma border into south-central Kansas. It is making a bee-line to southern Witchita, KS. (5) Bow echo in Iowa with rotation near Des Moines...bow echo continues east with no tornado warnings. (6) Alva/Cherokee ciruclaiton heading toward Witchita,KS. This circulation was overtaken by tornado that crossed the border frm Manchester, OK before it had a chance to get to Witchita. Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 302 Comments: 3390

1906. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:18 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
This is an EF5... Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25990

1907. Bluestorm5 2:19 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Ratings above F5 were not used operationally, even with the old scale. Be careful not to confuse shear and actual wind speed. For an actual measured speed of "210+mph winds, you would need an actual pixel of about +180kts or -180kts. That is difficult to measure with doppler radar because it would be several times past the nyquist velocity and could only be displayed as a dealiased/reconstructed value. But, @wxbrad on twitter, a very well respected person, just tweeted he got 207.2 mph wind scan. It's not coming from me. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4304

1908. Xyrus2000 2:19 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: man your sure right there, this night may go down in the history books If the storm with the 3/4 mile wide monster stays on course and hits Wichita, it most certainly will go down in history. :P Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1037

1909. RTSplayer 2:19 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
I think the Saint John cell has at least two different tornadoes on it. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1910. LargoFl 2:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IAC011-095-103-107-113-183-150315- /O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0012.120415T0214Z-120415T0315Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 914 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT. * AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELLE PLAINE TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DELTA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARENGO TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF OTTUMWA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LADORA...VAN HORNE...KESWICK...BLAIRSTOWN...MILLERSBURG... HAYESVILLE...SIGOURNEY...NEWHALL...NORTH ENGLISH...SOUTH ENGLISH... CONROY...WILLIAMSBURG...NORWAY...PARNELL...HARPER. ..ATKINS... KINROSS...AMANA...WALFORD...FAIRFAX...OXFORD...WEL LMAN...CEDAR RAPIDS...SWISHER...SHUEYVILLE...TIFFIN...ELY...KAL ONA...RICHMOND... NORTH LIBERTY...BERTRAM...OAKDALE...CORALVILLE AND LAKE MACBRIDE STATE PARK. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 205 AND 241. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 4132 9242 4152 9234 4152 9230 4205 9230 4196 9147 4119 9180 4122 9242 TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 271DEG 47KT 4196 9220 4115 9243 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN $$ NICHOLS Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1911. ScottLincoln 2:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Chicklit: 3/4 mile wide tornado headed toward Milan, KS according to life feed. Link I wonder how people estimate these things at night... Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1788

1912. 1900hurricane 2:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Three quarters of a mile wide tornado. Quoting oddspeed: 3/4 mile wide : Quoting Chicklit: 3/4 mile wide tornado headed toward Milan, KS according to life feed. Link Quoting photonchaser: 3/4 of a mile wide! That's this storm. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1913. weatherh98 2:20 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... Omg it blacked out haha Is this the one that's gonna go near witchita Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6301

1914. hurricanehunter27 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... At least an EF4. You cant tell me otherwise. Even the NWS official report later cannot tell me otherwise. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1915. Bluestorm5 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... O_O* whoa... now we MIGHT have two EF5 from this outbreak. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4304

1916. LargoFl 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: If the storm with the 3/4 mile wide monster stays on course and hits Wichita, it most certainly will go down in history. :P my god can you imagine the damage, geez Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1917. Xyrus2000 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Omg it blacked out haha Is this the one that's gonna go near witchita Yep. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1037

1918. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Saint John is about to get wiped out. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25990

1919. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:21 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Preliminary count now at 73 Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5260

1920. 1900hurricane 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... Or a black hole... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1921. CybrTeddy 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... Where are you getting these images? Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1922. hurricanehunter27 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: I wonder how people estimate these things at night... They caught it in a still frame. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1923. ScottLincoln 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is an EF5... The best you can get from radar is that it is a significant tornado or a weak tornado. You might be able to tell if it has a higher chance of being a strong/violent tornado, but beyond that, there is no way to know and it is unwise to speculate that way. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1788

1924. Bluestorm5 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
@wxbrad: Rapid Update Model has a STP of 15.8 near Pratt, KS. Didn't know it could go that high. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4304

1925. NCHurricane2009 2:22 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Any word on tornado near Marion-Hillsboro-Herington tornado? Haven't seen any posts on it in the last minutes.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 302 Comments: 3390

1926. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: @wxbrad: Rapid Update Model has a STP of 15.8 near Pratt, KS. Didn't know it could go that high. April 27, 2011 had a value of 38. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25990

1927. 1900hurricane 2:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Upped the angle a bit, it was getting kinda noisy at the lowest angle. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1928. LargoFl 2:23 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
TORNADO WARNING KSC145-185-150245- /O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0031.120415T0212Z-120415T0245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 912 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 908 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACKSVILLE. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...RADIUM...ZENITH...SEWARD AND HUDSON. THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE TORNADO WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS CONFIRMED! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3786 9901 3804 9903 3827 9893 3827 9847 3826 9847 3794 9847 TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 219DEG 49KT 3801 9892 HAIL 4.25IN $$ RUSSELL Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1929. hurricanehunter27 2:24 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: The best you can get from radar is that it is a significant tornado or a weak tornado. You might be able to tell if it has a higher chance of being a strong/violent tornado, but beyond that, there is no way to know and it is unwise to speculate that way. Its a weather blog what do you think were gona do? Its ok to speculate. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1930. ScottLincoln 2:24 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: At least an EF4. You cant tell me otherwise. Even the NWS official report later cannot tell me otherwise. You sound just like some people ranting about the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado of last year. Not even one of the most in-depth surveys ever done could convince them. The survey team even had one of the inventors of the modern EF-scale. Some people just cannot be convinced by evidence when they make up their mind without it. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1788

1931. Bluestorm5 2:24 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: April 27, 2011 had a value of 38. O_O* wow... I guess someone need to tell @wxbrad that. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4304

1932. CybrTeddy 2:24 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Its a weather blog what do you think were gona do? Its ok to speculate. He isn't doing anything to bash us, he's pointing out the wide range of possibilities. However, people should treat this as a major tornado. KSN reporting now that a large wedge tornado is heading towards Anson. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1933. RTSplayer 2:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
The right hook on the Saint John cell went directly over the intersection. The left hook went a few miles west of there, I think. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1934. ScottLincoln 2:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: They caught it in a still frame. Which says little-to-nothing about how they could possibly estimate width of a tornado at night. All that proves is that they saw something that probably was on the ground. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1788

1935. weatherh98 2:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: Upped the angle a bit, it was getting kinda noisy at the lowest angle. This may hit Wichita Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6301

1936. Tygor 2:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
It's been an exciting day following all the storms, but with the sun setting and storms heading for populated areas, all I have is a sick feeling in my stomach. Following the storms is definitely going from awe to dread. Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 130

1937. LargoFl 2:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 914 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC077-191-150230- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/ SUMNER KS-HARPER KS- 914 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT... AT 910 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF ARGONIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ARGONIA AND MILAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 3700 9778 3699 9811 3706 9816 3740 9774 3703 9749 3699 9769 3699 9777 TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 225DEG 29KT 3720 9776 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT HAIL...2.75IN $$ KLEINSASSER Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1938. hydrus 2:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14721

1939. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
:\ Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25990

1940. hurricanehunter27 2:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: You sound just like some people ranting about the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado of last year. Not even one of the most in-depth surveys ever done could convince them. The survey team even had one of the inventors of the modern EF-scale. Some people just cannot be convinced by evidence when they make up their mind without it. I think we all need to calm down. Of course I am going to listen to the NWS official report. Just get caught in the moment you know? You have to realize this is a weather blog not a NWS office. People are going to get excited and speculate. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1941. CybrTeddy 2:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Large tornado confirmed on the north side of St. John. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1942. 1900hurricane 2:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
St. John's/Old Greensburg storm: Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1943. Bluestorm5 2:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Not good... Wichita is still not out. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4304

1944. Xyrus2000 2:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
St. John has a large tornado confirmed on the ground. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1037

1945. floridaT 2:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
macksville ks has a population of aprox 500 Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 714

1946. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Argonia was probably destroyed. Headed for downtown Wichita, KS Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25990

1947. hurricanehunter27 2:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: Which says little-to-nothing about how they could possibly estimate width of a tornado at night. All that proves is that they saw something that probably was on the ground. You can get a general idea. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1948. LargoFl 2:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NEC035-059-129-169-150300- /O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0050.120415T0221Z-120415T0300Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 921 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHWESTERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT * AT 919 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF NELSON...OR 27 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OAK...FAIRFIELD...EDGAR...DAVENPORT...CLAY CENTER...ONG... SHICKLEY...SARONVILLE...SUTTON...GENEVA...GRAFTON. ..FAIRMONT AND EXETER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER... INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR A CLOSET...OR INTO A BASEMENT. && LAT...LON 4020 9783 4021 9810 4030 9825 4069 9802 4070 9736 TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 219DEG 45KT 4030 9804 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN $$ ADO Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22514

1949. ILwthrfan 2:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Hudson's gone. Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1100

1950. CybrTeddy 2:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Hudson is getting a direct hit from a large and extremely dangerous tornado. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1951. 1900hurricane 2:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
This one doesn't look as bad as the other two, but is still very dangerous. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

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