Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

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2201. Xyrus2000 3:24 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Large wedge in south Wichita confirmed. On I-35 heading NNE. Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2202. NCHurricane2009 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Crossing I-35 turnpike in witchita...downtown is in trouble!!!! This is very bad!!!! Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

2203. SafeInTexas 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Keep an eye out in west texas again too. A new line of storms is beginning to fire. Doesn't appear to be supercell based yet, but may become that way as it works across TX in to OK. Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

2204. floridaT 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
mconnelle air force base about to take direct hit Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 657

2205. MrstormX 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Who confirmed this wedge??? Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

2206. Speeky 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: No, Wichita is definitely not okay. This COULD rivals Joplin or Tuscaloosa at this rate. Witchita's population is 6 times the population of Joplin Witchita 324,000 Joplin 50,000 Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

2207. wxgeek723 3:25 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Is there a webcam or any kind of visual we can get on the ground in Witchita? Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

2208. redux 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
i remember when the one spotter saw this thing forming....back in oklahoma. i wonder if he still is following. Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

2209. aspectre 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Large destructive wedge tornado CONFIRMED in southWitchita crossing I-35 near the turnpike. Central Witchita east of the Canal route is within the predicted path. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2210. Speeky 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Crossing I-35 turnpike in witchita...downtown is in trouble!!!! This is very bad!!!! signs are being knocked down Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

2211. hurricanehunter27 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Scott Roberts has it. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2212. weatherh98 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Tornado is looking stronger! Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

2213. RTSplayer 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: Large wedge in south Wichita confirmed. On I-35 heading NNE. Track suggests the eastern 3rd of the city will take it very bad. The other areas should be spared. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2214. ncstorm 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Wichita has lost power on the north end of town Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

2215. floridaT 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting MrstormX: Who confirmed this wedge??? on ksn tv they reported a spotter Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 657

2216. Bluestorm5 3:26 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
KSN 3 is drawing 2 arrows RIGHT THROUGH the heart of Wichita. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

2217. LargoFl 3:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Well that's it for me guys, cant keep my eyes open anymore..for those in the paths of these tornado's..my prayers for you and your families...good nite folks Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

2218. drg0dOwnCountry 3:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939

2219. Neapolitan 3:27 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Speeky: Witchita's population is 6 times the population of Joplin Witchita 324,000 Joplin 50,000 True. Then again, this has been watched for a very long time, while the Joplin tornado was a relative surprise. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153

2220. ScottLincoln 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Tornado is going to miss downtown. Oaklawn, Andover are most likely next targets. Tornado is causing damage as debris is likely causing lower rho/cc values on radar. NROT values of up to 3.2 just above the ground. I'd say it is now likely that EF2+ (strong to violent) tornado damage has just occured near I-35 and Haysville. (and you wont hear me early-guess damage severity often) Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1568

2221. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
* AT 1019 PM CDT...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WICHITA METRO AREA. A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

2222. weatherh98 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Looks funky tornado is over oaklawn now Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

2223. NCHurricane2009 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
KSN in Witchita may lose power any SECOND...the screen flickered!!!! Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

2224. hurricanehunter27 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting MrstormX: Who confirmed this wedge??? Hopefully Reed. If it was Reed Wichita has a chance. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2225. hurricanehunter27 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2226. yqt1001 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723: Is there a webcam or any kind of visual we can get on the ground in Witchita? There was one, but the power went out a a few minutes ago. Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184

2227. drg0dOwnCountry 3:28 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Tornadoes of 2012 Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1939

2228. TerraNova 3:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
IMPACT...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLEDIF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETEDESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELLBUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROMTHEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASSDEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREAUNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS. Now that...sounds a lot like a certain warning issued for a landfalling Katrina all those years ago. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

2229. Bluestorm5 3:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
KSN 3 is losing power... they got huge balls to keep doing this despite strong tornado that could kills them. Kudos to them. Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

2230. 1900hurricane 3:29 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting SafeInTexas: Keep an eye out in west texas again too. A new line of storms is beginning to fire. Doesn't appear to be supercell based yet, but may become that way as it works across TX in to OK. Looks like it could be along the cold front. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

2231. Speeky 3:30 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: True. Then again, this has been watched for a very long time, while the Joplin tornado was a relative surprise. True, However most people are sleeping at this time, it is 10:30pm there. Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 263

2232. hydrus 3:30 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

2233. ScottLincoln 3:30 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
0326UTC: major dealias issues now evident on radar. Massive area of convergent rotation now evident over Oaklawn area, near McConnel AFB and the Boeing Plants. Following I-35 turnpike. Radar sampling at estimated 500ft. Likely that strong to violent damage is continuing... Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1568

2234. ncstorm 3:30 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
the sherrif office took a hit..ruptured gas line..evacuating all personnel Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

2235. WxGeekVA 3:30 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Red TVS again. Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3316

2236. RitaEvac 3:31 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Squall line comes outta nowhere in W TX, entire event is now becoming into reality Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8899

2237. 1900hurricane 3:31 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Anyone else lose the feed, or is that just me? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

2238. NCHurricane2009 3:31 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Dude...I think KSN lost power. My live feed isn't working. Or it could be that my laptop is bad..anyone else? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

2239. weatherh98 3:31 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: Looks like it could be along the cold front. Thats the last hoorah. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

2240. HurricaneDean07 3:31 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Does anyone know how to convert custom images into Image urls? trying to post images on the Alberto potential Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4036

2241. hurricanehunter27 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
1999 Part 2. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2242. ScottLincoln 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
0326UTC update... major debris signature now evident on rho/cc exceeding 3000ft in the air. Tornadic circulation appears to be 0.8-1.0mi wide on radar. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1568

2243. Tazmanian 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
i still have but not sure how marh longer it will stay up Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111346

2244. 1900hurricane 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: Anyone else lose the feed, or is that just me? Nevermind, got it back. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

2245. hurricanehunter27 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: Thats the last hoorah. Look how far away that is though. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2246. TerraNova 3:32 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Dude...I think KSN lost power. My live feed isn't working. Or it could be that my laptop is bad..anyone else? Nope...still up for me. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

2247. hurricanehunter27 3:33 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: 0326UTC update... major debris signature now evident on rho/cc exceeding 3000ft in the air. Tornadic circulation appears to be 0.8-1.0mi wide on radar. Yah debris ball is obvious on radar now. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3470

2248. Bluestorm5 3:33 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
tornado is now at 55th and Broadway Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

2249. ncstorm 3:33 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
Sirens are going off in the background of the radio dispatch..just confirmed fire calls Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

2250. Melagoo 3:33 AM GMT on April 15, 2012
... is this going to become a pattern for storms this year ... GOM with all that warm moist air coming off it mixing with the colder Northern air ... never mind Hurricane season it's Tornado season full force ... STAY SAFE! Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1510

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