Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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351. Patrap 10:05 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
296 WFUS54 KOUN 132205 TOROUN OKC125-132230- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0010.120413T2205Z-120413T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 505 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHAWNEE...TECUMSEH...PINK...EARLSBORO...JOHNSON... DALE AND BETHEL ACRES. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS. LAT...LON 3523 9678 3525 9714 3538 9714 3546 9677 TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 253DEG 22KT 3531 9709 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111513

352. 1900hurricane 10:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Tornado Warning. Rotation showing up well in the last few frames. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

353. LargoFl 10:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Patrap: 296 WFUS54 KOUN 132205 TOROUN OKC125-132230- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0010.120413T2205Z-120413T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 505 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHAWNEE...TECUMSEH...PINK...EARLSBORO...JOHNSON... DALE AND BETHEL ACRES. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS. LAT...LON 3523 9678 3525 9714 3538 9714 3546 9677 TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 253DEG 22KT 3531 9709 the cnn weather guy said today was just the warm up..tomorrow he's afraid..there may be 100's of tornado's..his words...my god Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

354. hurricanehunter27 10:10 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
News 9 met calling a debris ball on radar. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

355. RTSplayer 10:15 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Yeah the Norman tornado is definitely back. It's probably stronger now than before. there is also still a lot of rotation with that cell to the west of Oklahoma city. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

356. 1900hurricane 10:17 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
West cell doesn't look too organized yet. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

357. hurricanehunter27 10:18 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: West cell doesn't look too organized yet. Wow it had a really nice meso and just kinda fell apart. Yah it has a gust front with it now I believe. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

358. Tropicsweatherpr 10:18 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 610 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 PRC019-039-047-073-101-105-107-141-149-140115- /O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-120414T0115Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-MOROVIS PR- NARANJITO PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR- 610 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES... IN PUERTO RICO BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COROZAL...JAYUYA...MOROVIS ... NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...UTUADO AND VILLALBA * UNTIL 915 PM AST * AT 607 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ALONG THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ALSO...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 915 PM AST. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. && LAT...LON 1829 6667 1828 6626 1818 6629 1816 6665 $$ CASTRO Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8200

359. 1900hurricane 10:19 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Tight couplet near I-40 Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

360. LargoFl 10:21 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 161 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 512 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 MOC097-119-145-140300- /O.EXA.KSGF.SV.A.0161.000000T0000Z-120414T0300Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...CARTHAGE...JOPLIN... NEOSHO AND PINEVILLE. $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

361. LargoFl 10:23 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 521 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 KSZ099-100-132300- LABETTE-MONTGOMERY- 521 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LABETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONTGOMERY AND LABETTE COUNTIES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3737 9515 3701 9511 3702 9595 3738 9594 TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 230DEG 32KT 3723 9582 $$ JAKUB Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

362. RTSplayer 10:24 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Another extremely powerful thunderstorm forming near Harmon, in SW Oklahoma. 69 dBZ 40,000 ft. 75 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 21 knots SW (225) Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

363. Articuno 10:24 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Storm Chaser Bobby Payne in Shawnee, OK is reporting a very huge wall cloud. Link Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

364. hurricanehunter27 10:24 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Funnel trying to reach the ground. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

365. MAweatherboy1 10:25 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 OKC125-132230- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120413T2230Z/ POTTAWATOMIE OK- 520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY... AT 519 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHAWNEE...TECUMSEH...PINK...EARLSBORO...JOHNSON.. .DALE AND BETHEL ACRES. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 175 AND 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 3523 9678 3525 9714 3538 9714 3546 9677 TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 231DEG 20KT 3539 9699 $$ 30 Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6367

366. MAweatherboy1 10:26 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Tornado could be heading right for Johnson, OK Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6367

367. ncstorm 10:27 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
why would TWC stop coverage? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8439

368. hurricanehunter27 10:27 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Jeff Blair just had a bunch of police cars pass him moving fast. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

369. RTSplayer 10:28 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
It sounds like they are saying the high school at Norman was hit pretty hard by wind and hail damage from the tornado. windows blown out. Parts of the roofs blown off. Trees down. Car windows blown out. They say the students weren't there, obviously I forget the timing but school must have just been out. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

370. Articuno 10:29 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: why would TWC stop coverage? They did? Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

371. ncstorm 10:29 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Articuno: They did? yeah they back to their regular programming Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8439

372. RTSplayer 10:31 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: yeah they back to their regular programming That's MSNBC. that's disgraceful. this would never have been allowed 8, 10 years ago. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

373. Tropicsweatherpr 10:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 620 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 PRC001-055-059-081-093-111-113-121-153-140030- /O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0120.000000T0000Z-120414T0030Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR- SABANA GRANDE PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR- 620 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES... IN PUERTO RICO GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...LARES...MARICAO...PENUELAS. ..PONCE... SABANA GRANDE...YAUCO AND ADJUNTAS * UNTIL 830 PM AST * AT 619 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ALONG THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ALSO...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 915 PM AST. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. && LAT...LON 1808 6657 1798 6654 1798 6677 1799 6677 1798 6678 1797 6696 1809 6691 1827 6688 $$ CASTRO Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8200

374. 1900hurricane 10:33 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
The second storm doesn't look all that impressive from the tower cam aside from being big and dark. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

375. ncstorm 10:35 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Im watching one of the live feeds of the storm chasers and they came to a toll booth..what in the world do those people do about shelter? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8439

376. hurricanehunter27 10:35 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
All 3 of the storms near Altus are forming hooks. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

377. ncstorm 10:36 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: It sounds like they are saying the high school at Norman was hit pretty hard by wind and hail damage from the tornado. windows blown out. Parts of the roofs blown off. Trees down. Car windows blown out. They say the students weren't there, obviously I forget the timing but school must have just been out. they just said on news 9 that students were there.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8439

378. 1900hurricane 10:36 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Meanwhile, to the southwest... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

379. washingtonian115 10:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: why would TWC stop coverage? TWC has stopped coverage at a time like this???.What a sorry excuse for a weather channel they have become.I'am to through now.I'am officially done with them.Bye. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

380. RTSplayer 10:44 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
I see the video now. near the school. It's spotty stuff, nothing wide spread at all. Like one downed tree in a several block area. No biggy really. It wasn't even a large tree. They have had several buildings around town with roofs blown completely off though, so I guess if it's you its a big deal. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

381. Barefootontherocks 10:47 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Articuno: Storm Chaser Bobby Payne in Shawnee, OK is reporting a very huge wall cloud. Link He's actually a spotter for a TV station in OKC. Some of the OKC TV mets also "chase," and when there's severe happening, the stations pre-empt prime time network shows and cover storms live, like they are right now on that live stream. That storm you mentioned is the one that caused the tor at Norman. It was tor warned again when it got east of Norman, but not for a while now. Could cycle back up again, though. I'd watch that one down by Altus. 1900's on it. The one up by Perry could kick up also. There's some good feed up that way. It is headed for Kansas. Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16328

382. ScottLincoln 10:47 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: News 9 met calling a debris ball on radar. So I've heard. I think I'll disagree. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1583

383. 1900hurricane 10:49 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
This is kind of old, but it looks like the SPC is right on the money with it. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

384. hurricanehunter27 10:49 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: So I've heard. I think I'll disagree. Your a little late lol. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

385. Tropicsweatherpr 10:50 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 637 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 PRC143-145-140030- /O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0122.120413T2237Z-120414T0030Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR- 637 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES... IN PUERTO RICO VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA * UNTIL 830 PM AST * AT 637 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ALONG THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ALSO...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 830 PM AST. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. && LAT...LON 1848 6643 1848 6632 1838 6631 1838 6643 $$ CASTRO Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8200

386. 1900hurricane 10:53 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks: He's actually a spotter for a TV station in OKC. Some of the OKC TV mets also "chase," and when there's severe happening, the stations pre-empt prime time network shows and cover storms live, like they are right now on that live stream. That storm you mentioned is the one that caused the tor at Norman. It was tor warned again when it got east of Norman, but not for a while now. Could cycle back up again, though. I'd watch that one down by Altus. 1900's on it. The one up by Perry could kick up also. There's some good feed up that way. It is headed for Kansas. Speaking of Kansas: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS AND PORTIONS OF SW AND W CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 132240Z - 132345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161 CONTINUES. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 161 MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS SERN KS INTO SW/W-CNTRL MO...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF STRONGER ROTATION OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO. IN FACT...WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KINX SHOW LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..LEITMAN.. 04/13/2012 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37089705 38659585 38899503 38919445 38819393 38299367 37459371 37029375 37009455 37089705 Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

387. 1900hurricane 10:56 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
First Cell that moved through Norman earlier looks like it may be returning to its old ways... Not much rotation with it yet though, although that could change. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

388. hurricanehunter27 11:00 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Wonder what News 9 met thinks about tomorrow. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

389. 1900hurricane 11:02 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Damage in Norman overall doesn't look too bad for a tornado. Looks kind of similar to some of the wind damage from January here in College Station. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

390. weatherh98 11:05 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
I'm thinking tomorrow is going to be horrific. Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

391. hurricanehunter27 11:05 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Good lord the Altus storm has a nice meso. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

392. 1900hurricane 11:07 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Signs of weak rotation is starting to show up with the SW cluster of storms near Altus. Looks like a meso has developed. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

393. 1900hurricane 11:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
WWUS40 KWNS 132306 WWP2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 WS 0162 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 40% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25025 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2. $$ Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

394. jamesrainier 11:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Warnings in the TX Panhandle SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 604 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 602 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69

395. MAweatherboy1 11:10 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Good lord the Altus storm has a nice meso. No hook yet though Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6367

396. 1900hurricane 11:11 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Definitely a strong circulation just north of Altus. Might warrant a tornado warning soon. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

397. hurricanehunter27 11:12 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: No hook yet though He just panned away but there is an epic wall cloud on the storm. Link Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

398. 1900hurricane 11:13 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: No hook yet though Not sure I'd agree with your assessment. Looks like a rain-wrapped hook to me. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

399. RTSplayer 11:14 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Tornado Warning on the Altus cell right now. Just went up. 69 dBZ 38,000 ft. 74 kg/m� 100% chance 100% chance 3.50 in. 27 knots WSW (254) Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

400. jamesrainier 11:15 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Weather Underground %u200F @wunderground A tornado is likely on the ground near Blair in Jackson County, OK. Take cover now! Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69

401. 1900hurricane 11:15 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Altus storm is now tornado warned. TORNADO WARNING OKC065-075-132345- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0011.120413T2312Z-120413T2345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 612 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAIR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLAIR...MOUNTAIN PARK...ROOSEVELT...WARREN AND TOM STEED RESERVOIR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 3478 9938 3482 9930 3481 9925 3484 9925 3498 9891 3469 9885 3472 9936 TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 258DEG 22KT 3475 9929 $$ MAXWELL Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

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