Damaging Tornadoes Slam Plains

By: Shaun Tanner , 6:50 AM GMT on April 15, 2012

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A devastating string of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tracked through Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska on Saturday. This severe weather outbreak was remarkable in its duration as supercell thunderstorms began to pop up in western Kansas late Saturday morning, and the dry line that was supposed to represent the end of the severe weather threat was only halfway through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by 1:00 AM Central Time Sunday. The moisture difference on either side of this dry line was remarkable as well, with dew points in the upper 60's to the east, and a very dry 20's to the west.


SPC Storm Reports from Saturday

The SPC storm reports show the track of these storms, with Kansas being the hardest hit. Early in the afternoon, most of the supercell thunderstorms were consistently producing weak tornadoes that skipped across western and central Kansas. As the low-level jet stream kicked in late in the afternoon and into the evening, the thunderstorms strengthened considerably. Probably the most remarkable supercell thunderstorm began in western Oklahoma near Woodward as a stunning multi-vortex tornado. The tornado actually was several tornadoes that danced into southern Kansas and eventually threatened Wichita. The tornado passed just south and east of the city, producing an 84 mph wind gust at the Wichita Airport. It also did extensive damage at the airport. In addition, the Oaklawn area of Wichita was declared a disaster area very soon after the tornado passed. The Sedgwick County commissioner declared the county a disaster area. This wedge tornado eventually moved along the Kansas Turnpike northeast of Wichita before finally dissipating.


Figure 1. Double tornadoes in Oklahoma close to the Kansas border. Image credit: news9.com


Figure 2. This tornado sparked a fire in Oklahoma as it passed through the area northeast of Woodward. Image credit: news9.com

The deadliest tornado of the outbreak struck Woodward, OK early Sunday morning, as the main squall line moved through western Oklahoma. This tornado was very large and particularly dangerous since it occurred at night when most residents assumed the threat had ended. There were multiple reports of not hearing the city's siren, so it is entirely possible that the siren was either struck by lightning or hit by the tornado itself. At least five deaths have been confirmed in the Woodward area from this tornado. Probably the scariest video of a tornado I have ever seen was taken of this Woodward tornado as it moved into town. Note you can see the scale of the tornado as between power flashes.


Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage at the Wichita airport.

Perhaps the most telling feature of this severe weather outbreak was its repetitive nature. Salina, KS was tornado warned three times by three separate severe thunderstorms. Similarly, areas from Medicine Lodge to Kingman, Kansas were warned for two separate thunderstorms, while Woodward itself was warned very early in the day before a different tornado moved through the city late in the night.

Last night's storms have weakened, but a new round of severe weather is expected Sunday afternoon over portions of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region under their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk."

Shaun Tanner

Thunderstorm Wind Damage (dhennem)
Straight line winds from a thunderstorm this evening blew several semi tractor/trailers over on Interstate 29 in Fremont county, Iowa.
Thunderstorm Wind Damage
Freak Hail Storm Texas Panhandle (Randy7628)
Freak Hail Storm Texas Panhandle
Night tornado (Andrewbre)
Night tornado in Manchester,OK
Night tornado
Clouds II (amo1379)
Clouds II

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744. weatherh98
7:35 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3


Neutal to light el niño
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
743. RitaEvac
2:48 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
New blog has been up
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
742. jamesrainier
2:43 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
741. jamesrainier
2:40 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
929 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 927 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
KLEBERG COUNTY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSVILLE...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
740. jamesrainier
2:23 PM GMT on April 16, 2012


Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
739. jamesrainier
2:22 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
917 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS VEHICLES
HAVE BEEN STRANDED IN HIGH WATER. DOPPLER RADAR OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORTLAND...ROCKPORT...BAYSIDE...COPANO VILLAGE...GREGORY AND
INGLESIDE. .
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
738. jeffs713
2:22 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a collision zone is under way for Clear Lake area, storms moving NE over Brazoria county, cell near the west end of Galveston moving due north, and one other cell moving NNW. All this is going to merge somewhere over Friendswood, League City, Clear Lake areas.


And the north side of town gets left out to dry.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
737. jamesrainier
2:21 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 917 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 902 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 859 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 854 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
736. Tropicsweatherpr
2:15 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Climate Prediction Center 4/16/12 update has Nino 3.4 the same as last week's one at -0.3C. Also Nino 1-2 continues to warm and now is at +1.9C.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14773
735. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Floodman:


Good morning sir, how are you?
Very busy. Cant seem to catch up. I will send you a WU mail.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
734. DavidHOUTX
2:07 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:




They are going to have some flooding problems for sure as the day progresses.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
733. RitaEvac
2:06 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Looks like a collision zone is under way for Clear Lake area, storms moving NE over Brazoria county, cell near the west end of Galveston moving due north, and one other cell moving NNW. All this is going to merge somewhere over Friendswood, League City, Clear Lake areas.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
732. DavidHOUTX
2:05 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually that was bad luck for you, the storms were just lined up and training, no cap. lol


I meant that as in the cap prevented the heavy stuff from forming yesterday afternoon/evening. Which then prevented us from getting widespread rainfall as anticipated days earlier. There is definitely the opposite of a cap right now. I think we will make up for it today. Luckily that front stalled out just over the city so these storms will be running up through our area all day long today. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some severe weather with a few of these storms.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
731. StormTracker2K
2:03 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like things are recharging already over Brazoria county


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
730. wunderkidcayman
2:02 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It says June,not a specific date.

Link

JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION
and yes just saw that then I will requote my self
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know but is it June yet? and please just answer the question
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
729. RitaEvac
2:02 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Looks like things are recharging already over Brazoria county
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
728. RitaEvac
2:00 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It was lightening all night last night at my place but we hardly saw any rain. That cap really prevented the heavy stuff from getting into the Houston Metro area and north. Part of southern Brazoria county did get 4"+ of rain though. Radar is exaggerating with that 6"-7" showing up on there.


Actually that was bad luck for you, the storms were just lined up and training, no cap. lol
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
727. LargoFl
1:57 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
AN EASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 4
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA...BUT STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW
THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41833
726. Tropicsweatherpr
1:56 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know but is it June 1st? and please just answer the question


It says June,not a specific date.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14773
725. Floodman
1:55 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



20 named and 3 CAT 5s with 0 CONUS landfalls is a bust in some folks books...it's like NASCAR in here: we all came to see the skilled drivers make left turns, right? No one came to see a fiery crash, right?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
724. ScottLincoln
1:55 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



He might be referring to this.... way out in the extended, it gets to near 50F. Not quite as cool as he was suggesting though:
Link
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3296
723. DavidHOUTX
1:53 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Radar is way over doing rainfall totals in Houston/Galveston area. I've gotten less than an inch and I'm right near the NWS


It was lightening all night last night at my place but we hardly saw any rain. That cap really prevented the heavy stuff from getting into the Houston Metro area and north. Part of southern Brazoria county did get 4"+ of rain though. Radar is exaggerating with that 6"-7" showing up on there.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
722. Floodman
1:53 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL. We still have 45 days till the season starts. It will be interesting to see if this trend of the MJO hanging out across the Caribbean, Gulf, & E-Pac. I think all indicators are in place for an active year in terms of US landfalls across the Gulf region eventhough we may only have 10 to 12 storms.


A lot of warm water out there...and if you need hot air, just hang out in here for a while. When did the "Welcome National Pomposity Convention" banners go up? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
721. ScottLincoln
1:52 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
2) The article you pasted was published before separate independent investigations of the Solyndra loan guarantees failed to show any evidence whatsoever that politics influenced any decision making about those loan guarantees.


Same thing has happened a few times with various climate groups. Michael Mann being one, East Anglia being another big one. It appears that sometimes people want someone to be guilty of something so bad, they convict them in their minds before all the evidence is in, and refuse to change their mind when the evidence arrives.

In similar fashion to how some have treated Solyndra, the researchers at East Anglia have been exonerated by at least 4 different independent investigations, but that's not acceptable to some, and likely never will be.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3296
720. wunderkidcayman
1:51 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CFS1 will be discontinued in June. CFSv2 will be the only NCEP model for ENSO after June.

yes I know but is it June 1st? and please just answer the question
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
719. StormTracker2K
1:50 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



I think he's going by Accuweather which they over exaggerate everything on that site. It will problaby be 83 to 86 next week with lows in the 60's.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
718. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Radar is way over doing rainfall totals in Houston/Galveston area. I've gotten less than an inch and I'm right near the NWS



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
717. StormTracker2K
1:48 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Geezus.....lightning and thunder for 7-8 straight hrs last night. Didn't sleep, couldn't sleep, by the time you start falling asleep a clap of thunder awakens you only to start the process all over again.

Only 0.86" at the house near the NWS. Just a few miles SW places got up to 3-5 inches. Whole night was lit up constantly, crazy.


Some areas have seen 6" to 8" to your south.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
716. RitaEvac
1:47 PM GMT on April 16, 2012




Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
715. GeoffreyWPB
1:47 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11518
714. Neapolitan
1:46 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting weatherbro:


After this weekend(behind the front) it appears Orlando will enjoy highs in the low 70's with lows in the 40's/50's.
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.
Quoting Floodman:


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?
I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
713. StormTracker2K
1:45 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Floodman:


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?


LOL. We still have 45 days till the season starts. It will be interesting to see if this trend of the MJO hanging out across the Caribbean, Gulf, & E-Pac. I think all indicators are in place for an active year in terms of US landfalls across the Gulf region eventhough we may only have 10 to 12 storms.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
712. RitaEvac
1:44 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Geezus.....lightning and thunder for 7-8 straight hrs last night. Didn't sleep, couldn't sleep, by the time you start falling asleep a clap of thunder awakens you only to start the process all over again.

Only 0.86" at the house near the NWS. Just a few miles SW places got up to 3-5 inches. Whole night was lit up constantly, crazy.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
711. Tropicsweatherpr
1:39 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3


CFS1 will be discontinued in June. CFSv2 will be the only NCEP model for ENSO after June.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14773
710. Floodman
1:39 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
709. wunderkidcayman
1:37 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
708. Floodman
1:28 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Flood.


Good morning sir, how are you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
707. Bergeron
1:27 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.


Homegrown...yes..pretty powerful...maybe. The setup, if it remains the same as far as sst anomalies, there would have to be R.I. which would most likely occur in the GOMEX...then once again, the key factor would depend on shear.
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
706. hydrus
1:26 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Floodman:


Just another case of someone using an innocuous comment, in this cse about he drop in PV pricing, to tout their political agenda...
Good morning Flood.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
705. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Checking the scatterometers..Windsat is flailing... ASCAT may get it in the next few hours.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39098
704. jamesrainier
1:24 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
703. Floodman
1:23 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hey, Trunkmonkey.

1) You should always provide attribution when pasting such a large chunk of text. FWIW, the article you copied in its entirety is a seven-month-old piece from iWatchNews.

2) The article you pasted was published before separate independent investigations of the Solyndra loan guarantees failed to show any evidence whatsoever that politics influenced any decision making about those loan guarantees.

3) Even if the Solyndra deal had turned out to be the largest scandal to ever strike the United States--which it wasn't--that wouldn't change one iota what aspectre said: that PV prices are dropping as technology improves, making solar an increasingly more attractive source of alternative energy.


Just another case of someone using an innocuous comment, in this cse about he drop in PV pricing, to tout their political agenda...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
702. weatherbro
1:23 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looking more and more that El-Nino will be here this summer. Looking like we maybe sitting at +1.5 by October.



Unlike last time, this looks to be a traditional El Nino!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1371
701. MAweatherboy1
1:20 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting Bergeron:
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is on the increase...we are above last year at this time

2011


2012

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8001
700. weatherbro
1:20 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I don't know if anybody has seen this but it looks as if another severe wx outbreak maybe looming this weekend for FL, coastal GA, and coastal Carolina's. Also lots of rain for these areas which is needed as we are in a severe drought.




Euro


After this weekend(behind the front) it appears Orlando will enjoy highs in the low 70's with lows in the 40's/50's.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1371
699. Skyepony (Mod)
1:20 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The CMC is pretty much the only one thinking warm core though... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET all say cold core


Agreed. That was just yesterday's CMC reposted. Here's 06ZGFS


Checking those water temps..


00ZCMC has it more warm core but shallow, the SST are just as cold. There are Extratropical warm core off Greenland at times but they don't get invest or storm statues cause the SST are too cold. I'm not too excited~ little chance for a subtropical something, about no chance of something fully tropical.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39098
698. Bergeron
1:16 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is on the increase...we are above last year at this time

2011


2012
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
697. Bergeron
1:11 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


That's exactly it. People always seem to say that "El Nino = bust season" but it just increases the chances of a bust season. El Nino doesn't mean that a perfect storm of events can't happen and produce a 200mph monster, just decreases the chances.


Possibly...one of the key factors is going to be wind shear
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
696. yqt1001
1:07 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Big increase it appears across the eastern Pacific. Also look what it's doing to the MJO. Folks this could be bad for the US as this could be the year for big Gulf & Caribbean hurricanes.



That's exactly it. People always seem to say that "El Nino = bust season" but it just increases the chances of a bust season. El Nino doesn't mean that a perfect storm of events can't happen and produce a 200mph monster, just decreases the chances.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
695. MAweatherboy1
1:06 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:



The CMC is pretty much the only one thinking warm core though... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET all say cold core
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8001
694. Bergeron
1:03 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
The system has 3 days to detach from those 2 fronts, which is very feasible. Some of the storms in 2011 managed to detach from a front within 12 hours of being invested.

Any idea on if it's cold core or shallow warm core yet?


SST's won't support a warm core/ subtropical storm
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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