91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

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WE have a lot of native plant species and even some animal and insect species that will probably go extinct over the next several decades, except possibly a few stray transplanted specimens or those on display in some sort of zoo or aquarium.

By mid century, when sea level starts rising in inches or half-inches per year, instead of millimeters per year, it's going to get really bad for what's left of marshlands and the life in them.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
I've issued another tropical update on the Atlantic tropics due to Invest 91-L. At the request of some bloggers earlier today...I have added 91-L into its own special features section. I've received positive feedback so far on these detailed discussions and plan to do them daily during hurricane season. If there are any other remarks on how to make it better...etc...you can post on the blog comments.

My latest analysis has forced me to tone down the "hot talk" on 91-L in my update tonight...its running out of time to develop. Sadly, this maybe my last blog update until June 1, 2012...oh well...
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Quoting RTSplayer:


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.

Edit:
br>And I hadn't even considered a dam, which is obviously disastrous and probably much worse than any immediate effects of sea level rise, at least in the short to medium term.

4 dams on the Mekong river.....
Stopped the annual deposits of nutrient etc etc etc....
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Quoting belizeit:
Welcome to a early start in rain season.

Whats up belizeit...it seem as if most of the Caribbean is having an early start of the rainy season
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Quoting RTSplayer:


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.
Absolutely.
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Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.

Edit:

And I hadn't even considered a dam, which is obviously disastrous and probably much worse than any immediate effects of sea level rise, at least in the short to medium term.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting spathy:


No not at all. They are removing fresh groundwater that allows salt water to creep deeper inland into wells. Sea-rise would further an existing problem.

I did not see anything about wells though.
We are talking Rice cultivation. Rice grows in water. The area is a vast delta. The problem is that the river that is feeding the delta has been restricted by dams. THAT problem is not going to go away either, incidentally.
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Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?

It seems that the immediate problem is the dams built in China, reducing the river flows into the delta.
This has allowed the seawater to encroach.
So yeah, its not caused by sea-level rise.
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Welcome to a early start in rain season.
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Quoting presslord:
This should clear it all up for you:


Hmmm. Strange. ..... Where is the thermal oscillation line?
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Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?

I would have thought so.
But I will need to read the article again....
I thought you were saying that they were drilling for irrigation water, and that was causing the seawater to encroach into the paddies.
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Quoting spathy:


Before you leap to climate change please look into how much fresh water has been removed via well drilling/thus allowing salt intrusion.

Removing undergroundground water does NOT result in SEAWATER intrusion at ground level.
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah. It would have been nice to have him bowl in this series.
But the $$$$ is big in IPL.

Yeah, 700000 US
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Quoting wxmod:


But that wouldn't help solve the world water crisis, would it?


Solar desalination plants and water pipelines costs less than weather modification experiments.

You can also re-use the salt for de-icing roads and bridges.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting Grothar:


Closest one I could find. See, pott isn't so far off.


See post 525
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Quoting 1911maker:
Link

Salt threatens Mekong rice
.
.
.
Salt water from the South China Sea now spreads 40 kilometers into the delta, unlike the 10 kilometer inland reach of the sea 30 years ago.
.
.
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.Nguyen Van Bo, president of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Science, a government-backed entity in Hanoi. "Seven percent of the paddy fields in the delta are affected by rising sea levels."
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"Climate change is impacting farming systems and it is endangering crops," Campbell told IPS. "Agriculture systems have to be transformed to make agriculture climate resilient."

That's bad news....
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Link

Salt threatens Mekong rice
.
.
.
Salt water from the South China Sea now spreads 40 kilometers into the delta, unlike the 10 kilometer inland reach of the sea 30 years ago.
.
.
.
.Nguyen Van Bo, president of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Science, a government-backed entity in Hanoi. "Seven percent of the paddy fields in the delta are affected by rising sea levels."
.
.
.
"Climate change is impacting farming systems and it is endangering crops," Campbell told IPS. "Agriculture systems have to be transformed to make agriculture climate resilient."
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Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, I doubt there will be much play tomorrow....i hope the west indies square the series in Dominica. I see your home grown boy Sunil Narine is doing very well in the IPL

Yeah. It would have been nice to have him bowl in this series.
But the $$$$ is big in IPL.
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Quoting aspectre:
503. Grothar: I posted this before and it got no response.

That is feeding 91L? Is there a larger scale map showing both?


Closest one I could find. See, pott isn't so far off.

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Quoting pottery:

I was there for the Sunday.
Good cricket, but slow.
Looks to be Dominica for our chance to level.
May be rained out tomorrow again. Lots of wet stuff coming.

Yeah, I doubt there will be much play tomorrow....i hope the west indies square the series in Dominica. I see your home grown boy Sunil Narine is doing very well in the IPL
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The Endless Bummer
Mar 09, 2012
Fukushima fallout threatens Southland after a year of Japanese meltdowns


By Michael Collins

Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region’s famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific – buckyballs.

According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors. The tiny and tough buckeyballs are shaped like British Association Football soccer balls.

Water hitting the incredibly hot and radioactive primarily uranium-oxide fuel turns it into peroxide. In this goo buckeyballs are formed, loaded with uranium and able to move quickly through water without disintegrating.

High radiation readings in Santa Monica and Los Angeles during a recent 42-day period from late December and to late January strongly suggest that radiation is increasing in the region.

The radiation, detected by this reporter and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency separate from each other using difference procedures, does not appear to be natural in origin. The EPA’s radiation station is high atop an undisclosed building in Los Angeles while this reporter’s detection location is near the West LA border.

Both stations registered over 5.3 times normal though the methods of sampling and detection differed. The videotaped Santa Monica sampling and testing allowed for the detection of alpha and beta radiation while the sensitive EPA instrument detected beta only according the government website.

Scientific studies from the United Kingdom and Europe show that sea water infused with radiation of the sort spewing out of Fukushima can travel inland from the coast up to 300 kilometers. These mobile poisons include cesium-137 and plutonium-239 with a half-life of 24,400 years.

Even with government, University of California and this reporter’s tests showing high radiation in the air, water, food and dairy products in this state, the state and federal government cut off special testing for Fukushima radionuclides over half a year ago.

Southern California is still getting hit by Fukushima radiation at alarmingly high levels that will inevitably increase as the main bulk of polluted Pacific Ocean water reaches North America over the next two years.

Luckily, the area is south of where the jet stream has brought hot rains from across the Pacific and Fukushima over 5,000 miles away, upwind and up-current of the West Coast. Those rains have brought extraordinary amounts of radiation to places like St. Louis with multiple rain events detected and filmed showing incredibly hot rains.

Unluckily, North America is directly downwind of Japan where the government is having 560,000 tons of irradiated rubble incinerated with the ash dumped in Tokyo Bay. The ash that could escape would ALSO be radioactive adding to the witch’s brew of airborne toxins emanating from Japan which has suffered terribly from the meltdowns.

The burning began last October and continues through March 2014. Activists contend that people are getting an unwitting double dose with those along the coast looking at the prospect of a Pacific poisoned with highly mobile and extremely dangerous buckeyballs in the sea mist and breeze.

FOR THOSE LIVING IN WEST CONUS AND ARE INTERESTED IN THIS SUBJECT

CHECK http://www.enviroreporter.com

Radiation tests being performed on food, rain and environment....



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Quoting spathy:


Thats perfect Groth.
Thats my ringtone for MOM. Our last name is Burns.


How appropriate.
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503 Grothar: I posted this before and it got no response.

That is feeding 91L? Is there a larger scale map showing both?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting nigel20:

hey pottery.....the cricket was washed out for most of today...maybe that saved the west indies from going down 2-0

I was there for the Sunday.
Good cricket, but slow.
Looks to be Dominica for our chance to level.
May be rained out tomorrow again. Lots of wet stuff coming.
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Quoting Grothar:


That calls for a song, sorry spathy!! pott love this

img src="">

Is that George Noory on Bass?
Great tune, by the way.
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Quoting pottery:

I'm glad that someone is paying attention....

hey pottery.....the cricket was washed out for most of today...maybe that saved the west indies from going down 2-0
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Quoting spathy:
Groth,thats interesting. Did the Florida Rainy season start early in 1912?

What?
I am obsessed!


Are you as dry there as we are here? We really have not had much of a rainy season the past few years. June is always the rainiest month and last year I think the coast only got about 2 or 3 inches.
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Quoting spathy:


I think it has something to do with the active ring of fire # 2.
The one around S America.
But I will refer to George Nory!


That calls for a song, sorry spathy!! pott love this

img src="">
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Quoting reedzone:


That's what I've been saying and the only reason I say potentially deadly is because of the timing of that storm, people will be in bed. Damaging winds can be deadly if people don't get the warning. I think a Moderate Risk for Central/North Florida seems likely Saturday.


That is true but if things pan out as the models now are suggesting they will, there WILL also be a significant risk for tornadoes across Florida in the period from roughly late evening Saturday to mid-morning Sunday, depending upon one's location.

One interesting thing to note is that some of the model forecasts are predicting a strong trough with the jet stream actually dipping as far south as the Florida peninsula. That is quite unusual, especially this late in the season. There is also predicted to be a large pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere directly over the Florida peninsula at this time, which is also an unusual setup for this geographical location.

And finally, some people do tend to forget that these systems can behave a bit differently over Florida than over the Great Plains, for instance. Here there is not usually the dry line, a frequent component of severe weather outbreaks much further to the north and west. But we can have a deepening low pressure system in the mid levels out over the Gulf of Mexico, where surface winds are unfettered by landforms, as would be the case over the CONUS. Finally, sea breeze fronts at the surface and elevated humidity levels can add still more instability.

So dismissing the possible severe weather outbreak for this upcoming weekend in Florida as one without tornado risk is not wise. It may turn out well with only straight line winds, heavy rains, lightning and hail. Then again, it may develop further and feature other things, such as significant tornado activity.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS is diggin a lot lower with the low compared to last night.
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Quoting Grothar:


Nothing!

That's really sad
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Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.


Sorry, I only just came in so I didn't see it.
But how strange is that????
It has really not stopped raining this year as yet.
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Quoting nigel20:

whats up Grothar?


Nothing!
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Quoting aspectre:
487 TropicalAnalystwx13 Hot Dogs and Chocolate Syrup?

Ya know, I tried to Plus that... but just couldn't stomach it.

Actually, I thought that "chocolate syrup" used as the Feminine part of the thing is most intriguing. Tasty too.
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Quoting pottery:
Have you guys checked out whats going on over Northern South America?
Feeding in to 91L and all.
Street flooding in the city here this afternoon, with thunder and stuff.

Weird Weather this, for a dry season....


I posted this before and it got no response.

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Quoting Grothar:
Hello boys and girls.

whats up Grothar?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I sea what you did there...

I'm glad that someone is paying attention....
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.