Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is the 16 day GFS precip map and look at the Gulf and down into the Caribbean. This is supposed to be the driest time of the year here and look. Looks like this has a big part in it.

This pattern is more typical during a la nina, but la nina is virtually gone.....is their an explanation for this or the effects of la nina are still being felt?

Quoting OrchidGrower:
Regarding rapid intensification, I remember watching Opal in the Southern GOM in 1995, from my home in Mobile. Opal was expected to move north and hit New Orleans as Cat 2 or low-end Cat 3. I stayed up until midnight watching that storm, then went to bed.

'Woke up next morning with rain pouring down, wind rattling the palms, and a high-end Cat 4 barreling towards us. Opal reached Cat 5 an hour later, around 10 a.m. and south of Mississippi, I think. Of course she went on to hit the Panhandle as a weaker storm, but it was a (very) chilling reminder of how quickly a GOM hurricane can change in the middle of the night!

I lived in Venice Fl at the time of Opal. I went to the beach one morning when it was still far far away, still, I believe, only a tropical storm, and the weathermens' forecasts were still renderable as "Mehn~ some rain and wind..." But at the beach I saw waves which looked unreal: very far apart relative to usual, and what was singular was that they were unbroken for hundreds and hundreds of yards.. that is, each wave was a single unit that rolled as one nearly as far as the eye could see, even generally all cresting and crashing at once, as though it were made up for a film or something. Not very high ... maybe 2 to 3 feet. My aunt, now long dead and from the ancient history days when people foretold the weather by 'signs', said that the waves were a sign of a big storm.

Thinking of it afterward, I supposed that there must have been a very broad and substantial lowering of air pressure, thus raising the water and pulling it toward the center. This deepish but very wide low pressure then itself pulled toward the center....something like if a wide shallow bowl of water suddenly got an inch of water applied to the whole of it, it would all come to rush to the center. That's my (decidedly non-scientific) impression of it.

I wonder do they take wave characteristics into consideration today...? I suppose it would be like taking increases in reports of missing animals into account in the prediction of earthquakes.

Quoting nigel20:

This pattern is more typical during a la nina, but la nina is virtually gone.....is their an explanation for this or the effects of la nina are still being felt?

It takes time for the atmosphere to adjust itself from one pattern to another. It may be a few more months before the pattern shifts to a non-Niña mode.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1006 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLZ039-042-048-060-062-GMZ850-853-856-870-873-876 -191600-
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1006 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH NOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE 10 NM WEST OF THE CITRUS AND
HERNANDO COUNTY COAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THESE SHOWERS.

$$

TF

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It takes time for the atmosphere to adjust itself from one pattern to another. It may be a few more months before the pattern shifts to a non-Niña mode.

Thanks WxGeekVA!

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It takes time for the atmosphere to adjust itself from one pattern to another. It may be a few more months before the pattern shifts to a non-Niña mode.

Exactly.

Sometimes, with ENSO changes, the atmosphere will lead, and sometimes the ocean will lead. This time, it seems the ocean is leading, so the atmospheric effects (jet stream changes, mainly) will be a few months out. The only exception to the atmospheric changes lagging is the MJO, but that is a direct correlation with El Nino ocean temps.

April 18, 2011

April 18, 2012

Strong storm quickly building near Gainesville

SST MARCH 1

SST APRIL 19

Quoting nigel20:

This pattern is more typical during a la nina, but la nina is virtually gone.....is their an explanation for this or the effects of la nina are still being felt?

I think it has a lot to due with the warming over the east Pacific that combined with some lingering La-Nina but I think the main reason for the rainy last month or 2 in the Caribbean can be tied to these warming waters of the east Pacific which in turn is causing this. Lots of upward motion.

GULF SST MAR 1/APRIL 19

NINO/NINA REGIONS JAN 1 2012 APRIL 19 2012

Hi, MontanaZephyr -

Very interesting post! I assume the wave action is in response to the storm, though I can't help but think the shape of the Gulf makes its waters behave at least somewhat differently than the Atlantic waters do, for instance, in a hurricane (due to the bowl shape of the Gulf, if nothing else).

for that guy up in georgia..................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
826 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201230-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
826 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 30
MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...LOW PRESSURE
EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES IN THE
700-900 J/KG RANGE...AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW -2 WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN GENERAL...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM HAWKINSVILLE TO WARRENTON. AT THIS TIME...ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS NORTH GEORGIA
ON FRIDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
BASED ON THIS POSITION...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA...THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

You'll want to watch this one till the end as the Man tells it like it is.

Uploaded by askwestley on Oct 3, 2006
Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.

Barbados radar image

Miami NWS Discussion Update

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
EXTENDING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTHWEST INTO JUST WEST OF TAMPA
AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. AT
THE SAME TIME...BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY HOURS. THESE WEATHER
PATTERNS WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA...WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND METRO PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY...DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AROUND -10C TO -11C OVER
THIS AREA AND THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDING. SO WILL
UPDATE THE HWO SO SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY.

I am just starting to get a handle on the global and large scale pattern issues which impact tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin including the cause and effect issues with the Enso cycles. When I first started on the blog, I was basically looking through a "one dimensional view" (i.e. boy those waters are warm, or, man that sheer is really high) but the big picture is much more complex and I think it is (my own words) a "four" dimensional environment. You have ocean and all that goes with that (temps, topography, currents, etc.) on the bottom; horizontal issues (conditions "across" the storm environment in the different layers of the atmosphere from the surface to the stratospheric outflow regions) which include steering currents, wind sheer, dust, dry air, etc; on top issues in the highest levels over the storms (anticyclones, ventilation, cloud top temps); and, what I call the "space" dimension; Heating from the Sun on a global level in accordance with the seasons and movement of the ITCZ and and enso/wind generating issues related to solar heating (the strength of the Westerlies for example in the case of the Enso cycles) and the rotation of the Earth and the corresponding Coreolis effect.

A lot to consider and why tropical meteorology is such an interesting challenge................. :)

Quoting nigel20:
Barbados radar image

Good to see that radar is now publically available, link saved for hurricane season.

As an aside, this awesome bit of news:

Weather Underground Launches New Climate Change Center in Honor of Earth Day. New Resource Center Provides Information on the Effects of Our Warming Climate and What We Can Do to Change It

SAN FRANCISCO, CA, Apr 19, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Weather Underground, the world's first online weather service, announced today that it has added a new Climate Change Center to its popular site, wunderground.com. The primary goal of the new center is to present users with hard facts about how climate is changing in their local neighborhoods and empower people to form their own opinions on the climate change debate. The center is now live at wunderground.com/climate.

To understand how climate change is affecting local neighborhoods, users can access the Local Climate Change tool to review data from local weather stations reporting conditions from as far back as the early 1700s. In addition, this feature has the ability to see how climate could change in the future, as far forward as year 2100.

"Earth's climate has changed dramatically in recent years, and there is strong agreement among climate scientists that the current climate changes are mostly due to human activities. It is important for people to understand the changes happening to our atmosphere and what we can do about them," said Dr. Jeff Masters, co-Founder and Director of Meteorology at Weather Underground. "The Climate Change Center provides some unique resources to do just that."

The 'Skeptical Science' section debunks common myths about climate change. The new center also features blogs and videos for users looking to learn even more about the science behind climate change and understand how to reduce personal impact. With educational resources covering topics such as the greenhouse effect, Arctic sea ice decline, and extreme weather, the Climate Change Center will appeal to scientists, students, and anyone interested in the science behind climate change.

"Our new Climate Change Center is a one-stop shop for information about our warming climate," according to Weather Underground Climatologist Angela Fritz. "We want people to understand that climate change is not intangible, especially when looking at how your own neighborhood is being affected. Our ultimate goal is for people to use our content and resources to understand that climate change is happening and we can do something about it."

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Good to see that radar is now publically available, link saved for hurricane season.

yeah...thats very good as we'll have a better view of Twaves, Tstorm and Hurricanes approaching the Carbbean. The Jamaican radar is being updated, hope to have it back soon..while the Trinidadian radar is temporarily out of service, i'm not sure why though

......................more showers moving in now, this is wonderful, we need this rain so badly

Quoting nigel20:

yeah...thats very good as we'll have a better view of Twaves, Tstorm and Hurricanes approaching the Carbbean. The Jamaican radar is being updated, hope to have it back soon..while the Trinidadian radar is temporarily out of service, i'm not sure why though

Any news on the Cayman radar?

Trouble in Mississippi................................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
920 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSISSIPPI...

BIG BLACK RIVER AT WEST AFFECTING ATTALA AND HOLMES COUNTIES
BIG BLACK RIVER NEAR BENTONIA AFFECTING MADISON AND YAZOO COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC089-163-202020-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-120421T1200Z/
/BTAM6.1.ER.120418T0900Z.120419T0400Z.120420T2100 Z.NO/
920 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG BLACK RIVER NEAR BENTONIA
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.7 FEET AND SLOWLY FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN CREST TIME DATE

LOWER BIG BLACK RIVER
BENTONIA 22 22.7 THU 8 AM 22.2 21.7 21.1 FALLING

$$

DL

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Any news on the Cayman radar?

No, i'm not sure whats the latest with the Cayman radar

>

nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.

Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.

You're welcome TWpr

ready.gov adds SPACE WEATHER

In order to protect people and systems that might be at risk from space weather effects, we need to understand the causes of space weather.

The sun is the main source of space weather. Sudden bursts of plasma and magnetic field structures from the sun's atmosphere called coronal mass ejections (CME) together with sudden bursts of radiation, or solar flares, all cause space weather effects here on Earth.

Space weather can produce electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, and even causing wide-spread blackouts. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning, intelligence gathering, and weather forecasting.

Heavy rain coming onshore

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
817 am CDT Thursday Apr 19 2012

Short term...


Anticipate quiet weather for the next 36 hours with near normal
temperatures. On Friday...as ridging builds over the Great
Basin...an upper trough begins developing over the Great Plains. By
Friday evening...the trough will be over East Texas. Surface low
pressure will be over the Great Lakes with a cold front to the
Texas coast. This will allow moisture to increase...with chances
for precipitation to increase after midnight Friday night.


Model solutions have come around to a common solution of an upper low closing off over the western Gulf Saturday morning and be situated about 200 miles south of New Orleans by Saturday evening.

This is considerably south of solutions from 24 hours ago. This will also keep the surface low well off the coast...and will have the effect of keeping most of the precipitation offshore as well.


Will lower precipitation chances somewhat to the chance
range...and if MOS guidance is any indication...we may still be a
little too high on probability of precipitation. As the gradient tightens...breezy to
windy conditions will spread from south to north Saturday night.

Quoting reedzone:
Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.

Looking more like a heavy flooding rain event as the low is now expected to cross C FL. Could be some severe especially on Sunday with damaging hail possibly accumlating on the ground as a very cold poket aloft comes overhead.

Quoting nigel20:

No, i'm not sure whats the latest with the Cayman radar

Its should be in operation for the 2013 hurricane season, the platform is already constructed from my understanding.

... Torrential rains with a few embedded thunderstorms will affect
Pinellas and southwestern Hillsborough counties...

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a line of heavy
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Honeymoon Island to 16 miles
west of Egmont Key... or along a line extending from 9 miles west of
Dunedin to 18 miles west of fort DeSoto Park... moving east at 15
mph. These showers will affect Honeymoon Island... Caladesi
Island... Belleair Beach... Clearwater Beach... Clearwater... Indian
Shores... Saint Petersburg... Pinellas Park... and Dunedin... until
1245 PM EDT.

When driving through heavy rain... slow down. Always leave a safe
distance between you and other vehicles.

Almost forgot what thunder sounded like.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.

FWIW, here are my Caribbean radar links:

Guadeloupe & Martinique radars images
Caribbean Met Organization radar project
The Bahamas Meteorology Department
Bermuda Weather Service
Cuba Meteorological Radar Network
Jamaica Meteorological Service
Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba
NWS radar image from Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands
Panama Hydrometeorology

Link

Cayman Radar info.

Yes! Come on Alberto. Come to the south. Be like a mild mannered mix of the '94 Alberto and the '06 Alberto. Team Alberto 2012! I'll be printing up bumper stickers soon.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Its should be in operation for the 2013 hurricane season, the platform is already constructed from my understanding.

OK, thanks for the update stormpetrol

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn,does the Dominican Republic have a radar?

Thank you Nigel for bringing the Barbados one.

Yes, but not working at this time.

The WMO Region IV Plan has a list of all the regional weather office's internet address, which should lead you to their radar if they have one. Starts on page 95.

Water Restrictions are starting back up around here, we just got out of them a few weeks ago but bone dry weather here since Middle of March and the Lakes being less than half full is starting Drought thing over again. http://blogs.kxan.com/2012/04/18/falling-aquifer-l evel-triggers-san-marcos-restrictions/

After going thru last year I hate going a month or 2 without rain. East Texas will be OK going into Summer but the Western 2/3's of Texas looks like drought conditions again unless tropical systems move in or we get Heavy Rains in May which is possible.

Testing

Later all!

Storms gathering to my west!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Storms gathering to my west!

rainng pretty good here now, this is great