Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.
Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.
Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.
Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.
Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Notice CAPE is still very low over land, this is expected with the sun going down. However over water it becomes more unstable at night, I would imagine if you live in the eastern half of the state that this line might not hold together. But the West Coast of Florida at least should get impacted by this quite a bit.
However, with south to southwest flow developing ahead of the surface low and strong dynamics, we cant rule out this line persisting inland over night. We shall see.
stormW got banned
Link
This is SPC way of saying, it's not over yet...
It looks like a small line, but is their really a possibility of this exploading?
LOW CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THREATEN THE
CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE FURTHER
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING TROUGH BASE OF UPPER
LOW. DESPITE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS RESULTING FROM A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...INCREASING DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS NEAR SFC WINDS VEER...BUT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS SWLY
LLJ STRENGTHENS.
Didn't say exploding but did say extending further south. Having said that I still think there is the potential for severe wx later on this evening as this line approaches.
Yes. And what you said earlier was correct, in principle. Normally the sinking air behind a rain event would tend to retard development or sustainability of convective activity following closely on its heels.
But this is an unusual situation. Sometimes the storm systems just create their own atmospheric environment, as we have all heard numerous times.
My guess is that in the hour or so before that line arrives, the winds out of the south will pick up rapidly and dramatically, and the air will appear to actually warm up quite a bit and moisten up as well. Just my take, FWIW.
Yeah I agree. I was just saying the atmosphere would need some time to be able to again produce storms. It's a close call but I think that surge of energy and moisture is in the process of returning into the SE GOM.
Ah... here we have some heavier rain at last.
Something about feet
Any Signs of it extending south?
wasn't it foot in mouth syndrome
lol
he was a good blogger
he just let things get
the better of him
752 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
IF THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND REMAINS INTACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO KEEP TABS ON THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. IF YOU HAVE A WEATHER RADIO...MAKE SURE IT IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER BEFORE YOU GO TO SLEEP TONIGHT. IF YOU DON`T HAVE A WEATHER RADIO...ENSURE YOU HAVE A RELIABLE MEANS FOR RECEIVING
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION WHILE ASLEEP. LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POTENTIAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IF A WARNING IS ISSUED...MAKE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE LOCATION...A SECURE STRUCTURE AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA... THEN INTO THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CHOPPY SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN STARING MONDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND FORMAL ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE NEEDED.
WHUS52 KTBW 220114
SMWTBW
GMZ870-873-220245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0020.120422T0114Z-120422T0245Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
914 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT
* AT 912 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER... FROM 45 NM WEST OF ANCLOTE KEY TO 45 NM WEST OF D1
REEF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 2894 8335 2879 8320 2877 8306 2856 8299
2829 8317 2781 8319 2762 8309 2738 8304
2698 8278 2695 8343 2734 8364 2784 8378
2836 8377 2853 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 232DEG 32KT 2841 8366 2699 8401
$$
14-MROCZKA
Sunday April 22
FL east, south - 2 (before noon)
NC extreme east - 3
Other areas - 1 or less
New Providence currently in the light yellow shading. Looks like the Mangrove Cay area of Andros is getting the worst of this for now... except for the N Cuban coast... lol
this is likely to move east over our island chain over night, but I am expecting we'll have more storms and a more serious cooldown tomorrow.
I'm kinda enjoying this rainy wx... nice change from constant dust.
Probably about the same chance my 9:30 tennis game will be canceled in the morning.
742 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
Whats up Twpr? Thanks for all the webcams
One cell popped up with a shear marker, it's since dropped off. But these cells are probably approaching marginally severe limits..
you what too smell my feet you say?
Happy for you Baha...how are you?
There should be more showing up soon.
cars parked outside tonight beware!
From the Tampa NWS 8PM update:
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A DRY
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE DIMINISHED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT TIMING HAS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST PEA SIZE HAIL...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING LARGER HAIL. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.
3 New shear markers just popped up. Will post in a sec...
I wouldn't pay much attention to the shear markers, GR2/3 exaggerates a lot. In fact, GREarth/GR2Analyst aren't even showing any shear markers.
Nope
Pretty much every parameter is looking much more impressive compared to even 5 or 6 hours ago, strong thunderstorms impacting those now appear much more likely. The low is back to life as maritime instability increases further. You can see the low level jet developing by feeding smaller cells into the heavier line, it appears a well formed MCS may be beginning to take shape.
Well, I'll be the first to say it, I was wrong, and you were right. I thought south Florida would not be affected, but I'm rethinking my thought process.
So you are enjoying it while it last
Continental Weather
It's not much, but it will have to suffice for now considering I spent my money on GREarth and other things.
Not bout being right or wrong.. Just about watching the system come together.
and is thought to be the world's largest single generator of tropospheric ozone
1007 MAweatherboy1: You would laugh a million times harder if you looked at some of the comments made shortly after Don became a TS... People were calling for it to become a major hurricane, no joke!
Calling as in wishing that it would become a major hurricane: whatever could be even vaguely interpreted as a prediction of a major was swiftly shot down by the many.
Given the absurdly STRONG TexasHigh that was preventing any mitigation of the BigDrought, only a major (which tends to create its own steering environment) would have had any decent chance of penetrating inward.
Despite the NHC concensus of the path-predictions models saying otherwise, Don was heading relatively steadily for landfall in the least densely populated county in Texas, 2nd or 3rd least in the contiguousUS -- ~1 person per square mile -- for most of its lifetime in the Gulf.
Need to break the drought / high PLUS landfall of least possible harm EQUALS expectable wishing.
Heck, most of us were surprised that Don even made it to the coast of Texas what with the strong sheer vs relatively weak storm.
Admittedly watching DonWan disintegrate against the border gates with zero penetration was funny...
...or not, if one were Texan.
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