Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012 +42
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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1451. hydrus 8:16 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
1452. WxGeekVA 8:16 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
1415 winter123: What will they call this Nor'easter? (Since they always need to name them now i.e. Snowtober).

AlmostMayBeSomeSnow


Snapril!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3312
1453. Neapolitan 8:19 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know that there were any 100 degree temperatures recorded last month, though there may have been. But there were at least a couple of 100 and higher records set or tied last week in Texas, according to NOAA, along with several others Friday and Saturday:

100 plus
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143
1454. PedleyCA 8:20 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Well, I'm not 100% sure that they verified, but I know that it was at least forecasted for a few days in late March in the Larado to Zapata area.


The calendar for those 2 cities shows a 99 for 04/02/2012
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1455. WxGeekVA 8:21 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
About to get dumped on, looks like a nice training effect about to set up:

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1456. hydrus 8:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
208 N.M off of Naples, FL.Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: NW (310°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: W (278°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in and steady
Air Temperature: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 80.1 F
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
1457. PedleyCA 8:24 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't know that there were any 100 degree temperatures recorded last month, though there may have been. But there were at least a couple of 100 and higher records set or tied last week in Texas, according to NOAA, along with several others Friday and Saturday:

100 plus


where did you find that info-post a link, be nice share, lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2139
1458. Neapolitan 8:28 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Speaking of warmth, here's the revised 6-10 day forecast. The Mid-South is targeted this time around:

hot
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143
1459. nrtiwlnvragn 8:32 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
According to HPC Death Valley, CA has been in the 100s lately.
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1460. HurrikanEB 8:40 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
How long as the new site been up for preview? just noticed it.

the new Weather.gov site
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1461. Grothar 8:46 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1462. MAweatherboy1 8:47 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:

Amazing that we're seeing that much snow in late April!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6342
1463. WxGeekVA 8:48 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting HurrikanEB:
How long as the new site been up for preview? just noticed it.

the new Weather.gov site


IDk but it has mobile too so I can view discussions and graphics easily on my phone.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3312
1464. Grothar 8:49 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1465. Grothar 8:50 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Amazing that we're seeing that much snow in late April!


I haven't seen this much since 1909.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1466. washingtonian115 8:52 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


I haven't seen this much since 1909.
How as the mini ice age of the late 1800's Grothar?
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1467. bappit 8:53 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4364
1468. BahaHurican 8:55 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Well... just heard on the radio that there was some damage caused by our overnight storm on the eastern end of the island [New Providence]. People are claiming it was a tornado, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a downburst instead. Regardless, some people apparently lost their roofs.

Here we had extensive leaf and twig damage, and 1/2 dozen young mangos were downed.

More on this as I get information.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610
1469. Grothar 8:58 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
How as the mini ice age of the late 1800's Grothar?


That was the "early" 1800's and it was cold. Almost ran out of oil lamps.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1471. Grothar 9:01 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well... just heard on the radio that there was some damage caused by our overnight storm on the eastern end of the island [New Providence]. People are claiming it was a tornado, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a downburst instead. Regardless, some people apparently lost their roofs.

Here we had extensive leaf and twig damage, and 1/2 dozen young mangos were downed.

More on this as I get information.


The clean-up must be awful. You may need two rakes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1472. bappit 9:01 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Here is a TAFB description of the gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

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1473. washingtonian115 9:02 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


That was the "early" 1800's and it was cold. Almost ran out of oil lamps.
Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
1474. bappit 9:05 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Nice discussion of the March 30-31, 2003 event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The current event seems to be rather late occurring. Part of the description of that event:

"This was a late season event occurring six weeks after the last documented gale event in the area for the season. The time lag between significant wind events allowed the waters in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to recover from upwelling effects induced by the presence of such strong wind events. A 10 km resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis from the Naval Oceanographic Office on 27 March 2003 (Figure 2) indicated STET had reached 27-28C with a pool of greater than 29C water nearby. The potential then existed for winds at higher elevations to mix down to the surface due to the presence of an unstable boundary layer generated by the warm SSTs. In addition ambient surface pressures were 1 to 2-hPa lower in late March than they were in January and February. This effectively added to the potential pressure gradient across the Chivela Pass. Therefore, the potential for much stronger winds existed."
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1475. washingtonian115 9:14 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Is anyone else watching the Day After Tomorrow?.It's on FX right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
1476. BahaHurican 9:16 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


The clean-up must be awful. You may need two rakes.
It was a tough job, but I made it through.

Least my bills didn't end up in San Souci.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610
1477. nigel20 9:16 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well... just heard on the radio that there was some damage caused by our overnight storm on the eastern end of the island [New Providence]. People are claiming it was a tornado, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a downburst instead. Regardless, some people apparently lost their roofs.

Here we had extensive leaf and twig damage, and 1/2 dozen young mangos were downed.

More on this as I get information.

Sorry to hear Baha
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
1478. aspectre 9:17 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
1425 ClimateChange: I always considered Henry Margusity a bit of a goofball with his propensity to...invent pseudoscientific theories like the Japanese tsunami debris caused the March heatwave...

Tossing up the germ of an idea in hopes that the inevitable BS sessions that it'll land in will fertilize that seed into a working hypothesis is quite common. ie Sharing fact-based speculation is neither pseudoscientific nor is it the same as proposing a theory.
And whether that particular idea is ever proven to be right or wrong, it'd be difficult to believe that a Texas-sized debris field floating on the Pacific would have no effect on the World's weather.

A volleyball and soccerball found upon MiddletonIsland,Alaska are quite likely to be the first items to wash ashore in the US that've been sufficiently identified to be returned to their owner. DavidBaxter's wife, Yumi translated the text and contacted Misaki Murakami, who confirmed that he'd lost it.


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1479. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:18 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone else watching the Day After Tomorrow?.It's on FX right now.

I am.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25222
1480. hydrus 9:21 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting bappit:


Gulf of Tehuantepec gales!
Tehuano wind
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Tehuano)
Jump to: navigation, search

The Tehuano wind is a north to northeasterly wind which periodically blows across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. The wind is stronger than the trade winds which normally blow here.[citation needed] It is notable for causing a pronounced increase in upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich waters in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Pacific coast which in turn supports an abundance of sea life. The wind and upwelling are together referred to as a Tehuano event.

The Tehuano is caused by a surge of cooler, drier air originating from the North American continent. Such surges are more common in the winter, but may occur at other times of the year as well. This air is denser than the tropical air mass normally present in the region, thus a strong pressure gradient is established which induces the wind. The wind is further accelerated by the funneling effect of the Chivela Pass between the Bay of Campeche and the Pacific coastlines.[1] The same conditions are the cause of the Papagayo wind off the coast of Costa Rica and the Panama wind further south.Gulf of Tehuantepec (Spanish: Golfo de Tehuantepec) is a large body of water on the Pacific coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, southeastern Mexico, at 16°N 95°W. Most of the hurricanes that form in the Eastern Pacific organize in or near this body of water. A strong, gale force wind called the Tehuano periodically blows out over the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing strong upwelling of nutrient-rich waters which support abundant sea life.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
1481. nigel20 9:22 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:

This late April snowfall will only cause a lot of mess
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
1483. washingtonian115 9:28 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I am.
I wonder what this blog will be like if that weather actually happened.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
1484. hydrus 9:32 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone else watching the Day After Tomorrow?.It's on FX right now.
I,m watching Deepak Chopra....Is anybody else watching Deepak Chopra.?.It will rain and snow bad...24 hour Euro..
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1485. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:36 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Current radar with a temperature overlay.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25222
1486. Grothar 9:37 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone else watching the Day After Tomorrow?.It's on FX right now.


I thought it was on in two days!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
1487. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:38 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
What a mess...

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1488. washingtonian115 9:41 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


I thought it was on in two days!!
Lol.I am still confused as to why that's the name of the movie.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
1489. TropicalAnalystwx13 9:45 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25222
1490. hydrus 9:48 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Canadian air still flowing down in 84 hours..
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1491. Tazmanian 10:01 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder what this blog will be like if that weather actually happened.



i be down in MX right now LOL
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1492. bappit 10:12 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a mess...


Aren't the rains welcome? Thought a drought was developing.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4364
1493. aspectre 10:19 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
1483 washingtonian115: I wonder what this blog will be like if [The Day After Tomorrow] weather actually happened.

Off-line. WUnderground servers are located in SanFrancisco.
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1494. JRRP 10:24 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
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1495. GeoffreyWPB 10:32 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone else watching the Day After Tomorrow?.It's on FX right now.


I'm watching it. Need some cheering up. Going to watch Old Yeller next.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9110
1496. ScottLincoln 10:42 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IDk but it has mobile too so I can view discussions and graphics easily on my phone.


Long overdue...
Unfortunately they are making some things less mobile-friendly, like the water/AHPS pages.
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1497. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:43 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Rapidly strengthening low pressure area off our coast.

Down to 996 mbar.

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1498. hydrus 10:48 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm watching it. Need some cheering up. Going to watch Old Yeller next.
Q. What is pink and fluffy.?....A. Pink Fluff.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
1499. ScottLincoln 10:49 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
And whether that particular idea is ever proven to be right or wrong, it'd be difficult to believe that a Texas-sized debris field floating on the Pacific would have no effect on the World's weather.


It's not like it's "Texas-sized" and solid. Similar to the garbage gyre in the Pacific. Terms are used to make it sound just massive, but it's not like this island of continuous material that is that large. I'd be very skeptical of such claims or hypotheses (it is erroneously called a theory) of tsunami debris causing the 2012 North American heatwave or even changing weather in a statistically significant way. Much more evidence would need to be presented, including putting this area of debris in context with previous known events, before this could become more than a very speculative, weakly substantiated hypothesis.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1538
1500. nigel20 10:50 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting JRRP:

The SAL is pretty weak at the moment
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1501. Skyepony (Mod) 10:52 PM GMT on April 22, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapidly strengthening low pressure area off our coast.

Down to 996 mbar.



GEOS-5 has been calling to bottom it at 992mb for a few days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29268

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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