Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.
Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.
Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.
Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.
Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yea that was a monster 960 Mb storm indeed. Once again, apples and oranges. I never said nothing about downplaying. I was referencing to a couple of preople, some with multiple handles of the past, constantly Hype every little cloud or particular model run. If you comprehended what I said, you will know that I said there will be severe weather and warnings, no doubt. Every one stay safe tomorrow and Sunday morning
Just like you my friend. How ya doing?
Ha! Doing OK. emc. Just woke up from my nap. Looks like we finally are getting the rain we need.
Thank goodness. I have not got a drop here in Orlando, but all around me did. Guess I will have to wait until tomorrow. Up to 100% chance of rain per NWS. Fingers crossed
Was just going to inquire if you had seen any rain yet. I see by your reply
to EMC that you finally got lucky. Good deal, now lets hope ya don't get too much.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN BROWARD METRO IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT
* AT 715 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAWGRASS MILLS MALL... AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
* THE STORM WILL AFFECT... SAWGRASS MILLS MALL... DAVIE... SUNRISE... COOPER CITY... PLANTATION... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
* AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO ON RADAR OVER HARLINGEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SAN BENITO BY 630 PM CDT.
LA PALOMA BY 635 PM CDT.
RANCHO VIEJO BY 645 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
&&
LAT...LON 2616 9778 2627 9771 2601 9744 2594 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 317DEG 34KT 2613 9767
$$
JGG
It was justa matter of time.
Yeah, those red X symbols like to pop up out of nowhere
:)
Sometime my images work and sometimes they don't.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
TXC061-210000-
/O.CON.KBRO.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120421T0000Z/
CAMERON-
635 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CAMERON COUNTY...
AT 635 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A TORNADO ON RADAR 3 MILES WEST OF SAN BENITO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS STRONG ROTATION AND MAY PRODUCE
A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EL CAMINO ANGOSTO BY 635 PM CDT.
LAGO BY 640 PM CDT.
RANCHO VIEJO BY 645 PM CDT.
OLMITO BY 650 PM CDT.
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRRIDOR...AND FAR NORTHERN BROWNSVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.
&&
LAT...LON 2616 9778 2627 9771 2601 9744 2594 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 317DEG 34KT 2611 9766
$$
JGG
MAweatherboy, sounds like it's time to get away from Indonesia for a few days/weeks/lifetimes!
My cousin has a wife in Indonesia wishing to immigrate to down here (Louisiana).
To be honest, it doesn't really look all that bad right now. Beam was sampling at ~1500ft when the warning was first issued. Rotation is fairly weak at the low levels, mostly just an area of convergence. Looks kind of outflow-dominant at the surface and those types of supercells have trouble producing tornadoes, especially stronger, long-track tornadoes. Storm is moving toward the radar and the beam sampling height is going down quickly as it does; as such, we will have a much better chance of sampling a significant tornado if one were to occur.
It looks to have weakened some but the city of Brownsville is under a tornado warning.
The section of the storm that was capable of producing a weak tornado appears to have moved into Mexico on the 0003UTC scan.
Yeah, but the storm's so close to the radar site now it's hard to figure anything out
When storms are close to the radar site and one believes that they may be seeing contaminated data with clutter, higher tilts should be used to get the full picture. All the tilts now show the appendage and associated area of weak rotation across the border into Mexico. As such, the warning was just canceled.
Good news! I was getting pretty worried when the NWS used the term significant tornado as this thing was heading for the city... Looks like it turned out well though.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 70 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE FL KEYS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH SLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
AS A RESULT...THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.
TO THE N...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM ERN PA INTO WRN VA AND NC.
...FL...
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW NEARS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AND
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A
BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH SPORADIC
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
MAY BE WITH THE VORT MAX...PERHAPS IN AN ARCING LINE...AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED COUPLETS
WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
Evening Everyone!! That's fairly impressive for FL. Tomorrow should definitely be an interesting day. I think the theme of the day will more than likely be wind damage, however, looks like the SPC is saying a few tornadoes are possible.
Yeah, lol... I've always wanted to feel a weak quake though... Some areas up here felt the DC quake last August but I didn't... I think I'll probably need to move if I want to feel one since we don't get many up here!
That jet stream trough is coming all the way down to Florida... It's going to be an interesting Saturday here for us..
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210003
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
803 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
SENT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND
ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST BUT ARE ALSO BACK BUILDING. STRONGEST STORMS ARE IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
I-4 is clear at the moment.
Doesn't look like much happening between Tampa and Orlando right now.
There isn't even a severe hail threat anywhere in the state right now.
Highest VIL in a storm I could find is 25kg, which is pretty much nothing, and max hail size warning on any cell in the state right now is less than a half inch. That's not going to hurt anything.
Last weekend I sought out a tropical-fruit grower on nearby Pine Island, and we were talking about how much drier than normal the last few years here have been. Though I've only been here 3 years, I suspect the colder outflow from the Caloosahatchee has always surrounded us with sinking air; you can watch summer t-storms coming from Ft. Myers just fall apart when they hit the river.
But according to this long-time farmer, rainy season at least in our area has grown shorter and shorter in duration, and no longer lasts for many months. I'm not sure what to attribute that to: Perhaps warmer air aloft giving us more days where clouds are unable to break a cap, perhaps warmer air in general being able to hold more moisture without surrendering it as rain.
At any rate, it's just depressing around here. I've watched rain go around us for weeks, sometimes just missing us by about 5 miles or so. I really hope this weekend gives us a long, persistent soaking.
Thank you SO much!
No problem. Lived up there for about 4 years. I-4 is enough to worry about without storms ;o)
thank you!
Squally night for our area here...Link
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