Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012 +42
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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351. CybrTeddy 11:55 AM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Watch, Tampa area won't see anything out of this, it will magically split before it hits us, then reform and cause chaos for south Florida as usual.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251
352. capeflorida 11:55 AM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Why don't you stop being and alarmist and just enjoy the rain Jeff9641(StormTracker2K)
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353. icmoore 11:58 AM GMT on April 21, 2012    
We are in Madeira Beach. The GOM is about a block and a half in front of us and the Boca Ciega Bay surrounding our small neighborhood. We have had about 3.40" of much needed rain in the last two days but I can do without the severe stuff especially at night.
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354. intampa 12:00 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
cyberteddy i thought the same thing. the system will split and tampa gets nada, nothing, zero,zilch. ive seen happen so many times. i dont anything about the weather etc etc but just like to read this blog. lets hope something gets in here. the sun is peeking through broken clouds in brandon area. 1/2 inch rain in the gauge from the rain last night. 1 clap of thunder about 2am. thats it so far.
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355. LargoFl 12:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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356. LargoFl 12:05 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
notice in the NWS pic,all of Pinellas is in the severe category,things can change today BUT..keep listening to your local warnings all day today and tonight especially
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357. icmoore 12:10 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
notice in the NWS pic,all of Pinellas is in the severe category,things can change today BUT..keep listening to your local warnings all day today and tonight especially


I see that, thanks Largo!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062
358. hydrus 12:10 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Looks like Central Florida will get some much needed rain this weekend. Hopefully this will bring our wildfire index down.
Looks very active for the month of April . The low is tightening up nicely and will be deeper than forecast. Glad to see the rain in Florida and the south East.
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359. hydrus 12:16 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03..This I.R. shows up a bit better..
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360. BenBIogger 12:18 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
I think we should be seeing some severe weather developing around Tampa later today (After 12:30PM). I been looking at the upper level data, everything seems in check for an active afternoon across most of central and southern Florida.


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361. weathermanwannabe 12:20 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Good Morning. We know from the displaced convection which usually occurs with a low, and looking at all of the rain and t-storm activity in the Gulf, that a large part of Florida will be affected (with a probable squall line for the West Coast of Florida later). In terms of the actual center of the low, and landfall location in Florida, here is the very good am discussion from Tallahassee NWS; they are looking at the border crossing around Taylor or Dixie County:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2012

The wild card is the evolution of the large convective complex currently over the NC Gulf of Mexico. Both global and high-res models have hinted that a persistent, focused area of strong
thunderstorms would lead to the development of a convectively induced low (MCV) and PV anomaly. The last several runs of our local WRF model have generated such a MCV and track it onshore
near Taylor and Dixie Counties around 00-02z.
This will have to be watched closely as it could focus stronger and more persistent updrafts (and thereby stronger thunderstorms) as well as a corridor of heavier rainfall. Current grids call for a max total QPF around 1.8" in Dixie County, tapered down to about 1.0" along a VLD-TLH-AAF line, and down to 0.1" in the far northwest part of our area. This is pretty close to the latest HPC guidance. It should be noted that mesoscale enhancements and slow-moving thunderstorms could produce some localized corridors of rainfall around 3-4" around the Suwannee River and SE into the Florida peninsula. As deep deformation axis pivots into our area during the afternoon hours ahead of the approaching mid-upper level low center, storm motions should be rather slow with the potential for training echoes. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two, particularly in our far SE zones (Taylor, Dixie, Lafayette).
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362. civilbull 12:25 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?
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363. weathermanwannabe 12:29 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting civilbull:
Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?


I am thinking, from the discussion below as to trajectory, that the Tampa area, and North Central Florida, is going to get "tons" of rain later today and someone in the State is going to be flooded due to training effects. I cannot address the issue of sever weather but Florida needs the rain. A nice rainmaker is welcome actually.
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364. hydrus 12:31 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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365. seflagamma 12:35 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Good morning,

Here in SE Fla, we started getting thunderstorms last night and it continued all night and so far all morning.

I gave a quick look at my rain guage this morning and saw we already had over 1.5" in less than 24 hours and the rain has not yet let up here in Broward County.

Will go home at lunch and check again.

We need the rain, all of central and south Fla needs rain that we normally do not get this time of year.

Very nice surprise!

Hi everyone, Happy Saturday to you.

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366. icmoore 12:38 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Happy Saturday to you, too Patti!
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367. seflagamma 12:40 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Hi Cathy!!!! good to see you here this Saturday morning! You getting rain also?
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368. FLWeatherFreak91 12:45 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting civilbull:
Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?
Check out the Gulf. There lies your answer lol...
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369. FLWeatherFreak91 12:46 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Is the ULL dropping further south than forecast???? Looks like it still has some good momentum to it.
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370. Thundercloud01221991 1:00 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Come on really???? why do we have to go back to winter now



That is more then a foot of snow here in western NY
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371. GTcooliebai 1:00 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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372. Grothar 1:01 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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373. icmoore 1:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi Cathy!!!! good to see you here this Saturday morning! You getting rain also?


We only got about .20" last night but the day before yesterday we got 3.20". Currently not raining but I think that will probably change later :)
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374. Grothar 1:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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375. weathermanwannabe 1:08 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Check back later. Gonna take a Family walk before the rain kicks in this afternoon. Enjoy your morning North Florida and get your outside chores done by this afternoon.
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376. emcf30 1:16 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Come on really???? why do we have to go back to winter now



That is more then a foot of snow here in western NY


Yep. Poor trees that have already bloomed.
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377. washingtonian115 1:21 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
The pattern is starting to resemble a El nino all right.I just hope it's weak.
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378. Neapolitan 1:23 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Come on really???? why do we have to go back to winter now



That is more then a foot of snow here in western NY
As stated last evening, if this forecast bears out, the two largest Northeast snowfalls of this past winter will have been in October and April--in fact, not actually during winter at all.
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379. LargoFl 1:28 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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380. hurricane23 1:34 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Good deck of clouds across south florida keeping the heating of the sun down should limit the the threat for severe weather throughout the day but not completely wipe it out.
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381. MAweatherboy1 1:36 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
As stated last evening, if this forecast bears out, the two largest Northeast snowfalls of this past winter will have been in October and April--in fact, not actually during winter at all.

Yeah, they seem to be coming at the worst time for the trees and power companies this year
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6366
382. CybrTeddy 1:39 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Seeing the sun poke out in my area occasionally this AM.
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383. MAweatherboy1 1:41 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Has anyone else seen the insane levels of Cape the 6z GFS is suggesting 114 hours from now?

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384. hydrus 1:45 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
84 hours.
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385. hydrus 1:47 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Has anyone else seen the insane levels of Cape the 6z GFS is suggesting 114 hours from now?

Cape now.
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386. reedzone 1:50 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
It's funny how I'm north of the slight risk and it's all clear outside.. Nice SPC... Slight risk needs to be adjusted north next update.
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387. hydrus 1:50 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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388. washingtonian115 1:51 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Ahhh!.It's the invasion of the Floridians!.
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389. hydrus 1:53 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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390. reedzone 1:53 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Looking in the Gulf, a dangerous squall line has formed and is moving east... Head east of there, that's where the severe weather will strike. Good news is that it looks like it will be before the overnight hours.
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391. hydrus 1:54 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhh!.It's the invasion of the Floridians!.
Its payback for all the snowbirds they get every winter..:)
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392. washingtonian115 1:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Its payback for all the snowbirds they get every winter..:)
Lol.
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393. hydrus 1:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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394. MAweatherboy1 1:57 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Has anyone else seen the insane levels of Cape the 6z GFS is suggesting 114 hours from now?



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6366
395. CybrTeddy 1:59 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhh!.It's the invasion of the Floridians!.


Wait until anything above a TS hits Florida.
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396. charlottefl 2:01 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Barometric Pressure is down to 1007.8 here. Looks like a lot depends on how much the cloud deck breaks today, or if it does. Highest severe % I've seen in a while though.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672
397. sonofagunn 2:01 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Question about the Florida severe weather - where is the squall line that will have the severe weather? Is it the line forming South of New Orleans/MS right now, that is connected to the low? Or is it the mess South of Panama City?
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398. hydrus 2:02 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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399. hydrus 2:03 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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400. Grothar 2:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhh!.It's the invasion of the Floridians!.


Here washingtonian. This is from all of us to you!

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401. FLWeatherFreak91 2:04 PM GMT on April 21, 2012    
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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