Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.
Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.
Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.
Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.
Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There is a line in the Gulf of Mexico 220 miles West of the FL West Coast, but depending upon how much sun breaks though the cloud deck today there may be super cells that form in advance of that this afternoon/evening.
The low is fairly close to my house and the rain isn't moving a ton but I think the squall line is in te gulf
Actually, there is no likely about it when it comes to the increase in CO2. We ARE the source. The amount of increase year over year has been roughly half of our carbon emissions, with the other half or so of our emissions absorbed by carbon sinks (mostly the ocean, which is why it is acidifying). We will break 400 ppm within the next couple of years, which is something that hasn't happened since the Miocene some 20 million years ago.
Interesting times ahead to be sure.
The squall line is clearly seen on satellite.. Models are models.. Reality is, a squall line has formed, a very dangerous one at that, IR colors are very deep.
It looks like the pressure will drop significantly as it approaches the Carolinas. You should get some heavy rain and wind :P
I have a theory that Crocodiles and Alligators may experience accelerated growth in global warming conditions. I have been informed that they like very warm water, and can supposedly grow as much as an order of magnitude faster depending on the temperature of the water.
Mammals, on the other hand, should tend to have their growth rates and maximum sizes inhibited by extreme heat.
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System Series Stage Age (Ma)
Quaternary Pleistocene Gelasian younger
Neogene Pliocene Piacenzian 2.588–3.600
Zanclean 3.600–5.332
Miocene Messinian 5.332–7.246
Tortonian 7.246–11.608
Serravallian 11.608–13.65
Langhian 13.65–15.97
Burdigalian 15.97–20.43
Aquitanian 20.43–23.03
Paleogene Oligocene Chattian older
Subdivision of the Neogene Period according to the IUGS, as of July 2009.
The Miocene (symbol MI[1]) is a geological epoch of the Neogene Period and extends from about 23.03 to 5.332 million years ago (Ma). The Miocene was named by Sir Charles Lyell. Its name comes from the Greek words μείων (meiōn, “less”) and καινός (kainos, “new”) and means "less recent" because it has 18% fewer modern sea invertebrates than the Pliocene. The Miocene follows the Oligocene Epoch and is followed by the Pliocene Epoch. The Miocene is the first epoch of the Neogene Period.
The earth went from the Oligocene Epoch through the Miocene and into the Pliocene as it cooled into a series of Ice Ages. The Miocene boundaries are not marked by a single distinct global event but consist rather of regional boundaries between the warmer Oligocene and the cooler Pliocene.
The plants and animals of the Miocene were fairly modern. Mammals and birds were well-established. Whales, seals, and kelp spread. At the end of this epoch, the Himalayas started to rise.
uh huh....
hehehe!
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MO
VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH
RIVERS...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TN VALLEY. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL HASTEN THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OFF THE LA COAST/ ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GOM BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
IL/IND INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING
ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE FROM SERN LA INTO THE CNTRL
GOM WILL CONSOLIDATE TODAY OVER THE ERN GULF BASIN WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA TONIGHT...TO OFF THE
NERN FL COAST BY 22/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL LINK WITH A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE NERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
...FL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...
THE LOW-LATITUDE NATURE OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EPISODIC TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG.
WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY IN
ADVANCE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE ERN GOM. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF ANTECEDENT TSTM ACTIVITY
AND IT/S IMPACTS ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
Latest NAM has it right on the coast. 24 hour:
Down about 1mb in the past hour.
That's a pretty correct map
Doesn't make any sense if the Low has formed much further north then expected. The low is centered right on New Orleans, not even a Gulf Low... This increases and extends the severe weather risk northward.
Excerpts:
*Date/Time of Initial Impact: *April 21, 2012** J-day 112 @ 1644 UTC*
*
*Date/Time of Expected End:*April 22, 2012 J-day 113 @ 0414 UTC****
*Length of Outage:*12.5 hours *
*
*Details/Specifics of Change:*Central and Southern FL WFO offices via
Southern Region requested RSO for severe weather concerns.
**There will be an increased number of GOES-13 (GOES-East) CONUS scans,
with decreased coverage for the Southern Hemisphere and smaller
Northern
Hemisphere scans.*
This is a more reliable map to use IMO.
Clearly the low has entered the GOF some time ago.
But the Squall Line that will be the most severe is still in the gulf south of Lousiana?
Still much further north then forecast
We probably won't see any severe weather until later this afternoon or evening. (Don't quote me on that, cause anything can happen) But that is when most of the dynamics will be in place for it.
Just a tad south of New Orleans, much further north then what the models forecast.
but what is that to the south of Louisiana ?
A potent Upper Level Low.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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