March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record
March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
I'll have a new post by Friday.
Jeff Masters
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Classic.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH DANGER
OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. FIRES MAY START RAPIDLY AND SHORT-DISTANCE
SPREADING BY EMBERS WILL BE COMMON. OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE
PROHIBITED IN YOUR AREA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES MAY AGAIN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LONG DURATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH...THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
GLITTO
I'm on the road all day in south middle TN.. maybe I'll get some good photos of some weather..
Squirted water out of a mio bottle in class and it flew up and went in the air, and then hit a table and she saw it lol
Good morning!
Its already hot this weekend could be some of the hottest temps all year!
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR IN MODE
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...LOCALLY ENHANCING
HAIL/WIND THREAT RESPECTIVELY. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F AND PLUME OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH
STRENGTHENING SFC DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
WEAK MLCINH AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH AND UPSCALE
MERGER OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...AGGREGATED COLD POOLS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS...ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCING WIND THREAT. OVERALL SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK...AS COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW POOLS
AND SFC COOLING REDUCES BUOYANCY. COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM MID-SOUTH WWD OVER ERN OK.
Heres a link to below to get a better picture of whats going on.
Link
This is the result.
This is as the MJO peaks.
I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?
I agree the shear is the biggest obstacle but there seems to be a spin there north of Panama so we will see what happens over the next several days.
Yep. Getting it to relax 15-20kt at the end of april is the issue.
The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)
actually the CMC along with the Euro have been pretty good with formation of storms lately (I know they aren't tropical)as opposed to the GFS being the outlier in some cases..It also goes by the name "Canadian Model on Crack"..lets see if the winning streak will continue into the tropical season
I honestly don't look at the CMC that much, preferring to focus on the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and RUC models. (RUC for local weather)
I will watch the CMC during hurricane season, but it is kept in mind more as a consistent outlier (it is consistently an outlier, that is). If the CMC agrees with what other models are putting together... then I *know* something is up.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012
.NOW...
...SUNNY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INLAND...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONTINUES FOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COUPLE WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES.
&&
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
$$
April 26, 2012 SST Anomaly
April 25, 2012
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 110 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED/FAST MOVING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION THIS MORNING.
EVEN WHILE INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE MCS WILL BE TEMPERED AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS...THE WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THE MCS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 31045.
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